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Come get some edition
>Bets of steel sub-edition
Previous thread: >>64434607
>Helpful links
http://pastebin.com/mDAydpyK
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>/bet/ wiki
http://slashbetslash.wikia.com/wiki//bet/_Wikia
>FAQ and abbreviations list for those new to /bet/
http://pastebin.com/tPXwjDi6
>Help for gambling addiction/suicide hotlines
http://pastebin.com/SVqUYKbf
>/bet/ approved spreadsheet for tracking your bets
http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel
>>64445304
1st for a comfy thread
First for Euan absolutely SLAUGHTERING clueless americans.
3rd for win bets and chew bubblegum
4th for boxing day EPL comfiness
>>64445335
Have you ever looked into the obscure sports stuff yourself or is it just not worth the time?
lebron is fucking done
What is THE match/sport to watch on boxing day?
>>64445401
Leicester Liverpool
>>64445401
Van laal
>>64445391
No. Even researching basketball would be good. Bet365 carry all manner of shit for it like Estonian 2nd tier. Would probably get you limited quicker though.
>>64445401
Liv v Lec, as +90% of /bet/ have large/special Lec DC or Lec SW or Lex +1 HC on it.
>>64445418
This, we're going to end the meme
>>64445457
>90% of /bet/
lmao
>>64445349
>First for Euan absolutely SLAUGHTERING clueless americans.
>btfo
>"slaughtered"
kinda embarrassing t b h.
Good OP :^)
>>64445458
I wish. I'm probably gonna bet foxes la
#Ynwa though
>>64445479
There's only like 10 people in these threads anyway
Can't stop trumping
They absolutely reek of christmas dinner
>accidentally posted in the old thread
fuck me
>>64445335
>Interesting that you are doing it from an IT side rather than maths side.
Only reason I'm getting away with it is because I was really good at maths growing up so I know enough of the fundamentals to make it work - and also from a dissertation marking point of view, it means I don't have to be spot on with my findings by week 6 of next term which is a massive help
>I would recommend ignoring football and basketball and tennis.
Only reason I'm doing tennis is because I'm a lifetime + in in-play tennis (nothing much though, like 4-5%?) as it is because I do momentum-based bets so it'll be interesting to see if I can bump that up in any way to something sustainable
>>64445507
Pls stop this gimmick, unbelievably tez
>>64445479
You know it's true, friend :^)
>>64445486
Do you take EVERYTHING people post here as if they're being 100% serious?
Help a nigga out refs
Also based state farm commercials
>>64445547
I'd never use trumping, I started the gimmick and it's purely farthing or blowing off. HATE the term trumping, so tory
>>64445558
i'm on dnb, got le everton feel from this so not touching DC or +1 for larger stakes t b h
can anyone tell me why harden u 26.5 is a bad bet?
Lebron playing some grown-man basketball.
>>64445613
He averages 29 points a game
Pure hate Christmas man such a dyno day then the next day you've got a mad Christmas comedown licking rapping paper for a taste a the past
>>6445335
>Your judgement isnt good enough to know when a line is one point out. You need a system for that.
No shit, that's why I use algorithms. Do you think I'd be arguing about it if I'd been throwing away money hand over fist?
>on under 174.5
>last minute is going to be full of fouls and free throws
Sweating
>>64445647
he doesn't play against the best lockdown defender who doesn't'draw stupid fouls allowing him to do his meme free throw gimmick every game though
>>64445562
>Do you take EVERYTHING people post here as if they're being 100% serious?
>
>
>
Can honestly say I hate Scott Foster. He's fucked up at least 3 calls this game. Need a walk
>>64445663
Post algo
>>64445753
Don't know why you're bothering. Why do you feel the need to validate your betting to muggy Americans?
late but
>tfw no greek gf
>>64445779
He's had one too many half cokes, wont be stopped now until he passes out.
will odd myself if +6.5 doesn;t come in
>Foulball
Man basketball is so retarded. How can anyone enjoy this?
>muh fouling players to keep the game going
>>64445779
Just waiting on a clueless American making a fool of himself
Your welcome
>>64445753
>Post algo
Unfortunately I'm at my parents and I brought the my non work laptop or I would. But the algorithms I use are extremely basic; they just point out where elo or other rating systems has the line different from what they are by a large enough margin. They all require human intervention, I'm not touting some magical system.
>>64445888
Was on the +8.5. We did it bro.
Heads gone. Seething
Tfw -7
Qwll +6.5 came in so i still manage to profit, what is THE bet for the next game. Already on Kobe O 19.5
>>64445888
not today it seems
>>64445906
mostly only happens if a team has bad ft shooters and only down a couple points (1-4) in the final minute
>>64445929
>tfw +7
sweaty
wew, quite precise if i do say so myself
Tfw bought a half point to put me at -6 on gsw.
Bet returned
Tony Parker O13.5 because fuck it
Sweaty but +7 won.
I like rockets +8 next
LE CAVS SPREAD IS LE BET GUYS XD
NBA IS GOAT FOR BETTING XD
HAHAHA THEY SAID WE CNT PROFIT ON MAINSTREAM WE WILL SHOW EM XD
>morocco amateur division 2
Loving every laugh
>>64446040
M8, he's going to be guarded by Beverly and he's only averaging 11 as it is this season.
take Kawhi overs, they have no one to stop him.
>>64446051
cavs handicap won muhammed
>>64446051
All kinds of people were calling cavs overs
>>64446051
>>64446051
>he tailed tips from American slugs AGAIN
Stay poorious
Enough posts about le coin toss.
I have DECIMATED Afghanistan minus and overs v Bhutan tomorrow. H&H
H E A T
H E I G H T
Bhutans manlets going to be knackered playing in 30c heat with no altitude advantage. Afghan players also 3/4 inches taller on average and they're a dece side, watched their last game and they were good. Could be a big score.
>>64446051
>this mong who takes 'tips' on american sports and whines when they lose
pmsl
>>64446156
dont even know what hes complaining about the pregame spread won and in play it was over 6.5 most of the game
angry brit anon has lost the plot 2bh
>>64446155
>Enough posts about le coin toss.
>I have DECIMATED Afghanistan minus and overs v Bhutan tomorrow. H&H
>H E A T
>H E I G H T
>Bhutans manlets going to be knackered playing in 30c heat with no altitude advantage. Afghan players also 3/4 inches taller on average and they're a dece side, watched their last game and they were good. Could be a big score.
>bookies don't know this
but also
>bookies are perfect
pick 1 and stick with it please
>>64446155
>ah -3 @1.57, was 2.86 yesterday around noon
i don't think i can bring myself to lump on knowing this, literally could have almost tripled up my life money
>>64445920
Just a quick question if you don't mind. How does a basic algorithm overcome the advantage Vegas has in terms of setting the odds in the favour with lines being set at 1.9 - 1.9 and their even more accurate algorithm that sets their initial line, plus BIG BOY syndicates with their even more advanced algorithms swallowing any more remaining value in the market and setting the line to its rightful place. You could argue you can get in before the BIG BOY syndicates but I've never see a real dramatic line movement in American sports on a consistent basis to suggest there is major misprices or edge. Where it seems we would disagree and always will is the influence of mugs and their fivers and whether a basic algorithm can consistently and accurately provide enough edge to beat house advantage
>>64446205
Not him but
>comparing the nba with Bhutan v Afghanistan playing a half arsed tournament in India
p m s l
>>64446205
are you still on this what the fuck m8
>>64446218
Been topping up all day. o4.5 is value too
>>64446237
I don't understand this topping up meme, why not just put all the money on at once
>>64446283
pmsl
>>64446221
there definitely are misprices sometimes even though they are rare
>warriors bucks line opening at >TWENTY FUCKING TWO points
just a few days ago i got on pistons +18.5 in play and they lost by 7 points
its not like theres zero value to be found.
also absolute tears if you arent on kobr o19.5 points, im having panic attacks thinking of all the possessions hes going to post up and chuck on later on tonight, and theres nobody alpha enough to stop him from chucking on every possession, not even their coach
Wtb for SA v HOU Hooptoss then?
>>64446237
Thanks for knocking the + up for me
>-3 @ 1.27
>All this juicy + value soon
>>64446221
>Just a quick question if you don't mind. How does a basic algorithm overcome the advantage Vegas has in terms of setting the odds in the favour with lines being set at 1.9 - 1.9
It doesn't and I openly admitted that.
>even more accurate algorithm that sets their initial line, plus BIG BOY syndicates with their even more advanced algorithms swallowing any more remaining value in the market and setting the line to its rightful place. You could argue you can get in before the BIG BOY syndicates but I've never see a real dramatic line movement in American sports on a consistent basis to suggest there is major misprices or edge. Where it seems we would disagree and always will is the influence of mugs and their fivers and whether a basic algorithm can consistently and accurately provide enough edge to beat house advantage
autism
>>64446310
spurs in play, they will kill them in the 3rd.
>>64446332
pmsl.
I hope you are a troll desu
>>64446205
>bookies don't know this
Also not him but they probably don't. Its much much easier to just limit the few people who bother to take advantage of these meme games than to actually price them up as accurately as they can
>>64446377
>that time all of /bet/ was on curious carlos and he crashed literally 10 feet from the finish line
could not breath when it happened didnt even care about losing money
>prestaking the NBA
When will you people learn? It's like you enjoy losing money and getting mad at ameribros
>>64446344
>I hope you are a troll desu
;)
>>64446333
So, WTB?
>bud light thirst qtr
>promoting alcohol
>children present in the audience
>'murica
>>64446419
>I don't do it, therefore it's stupid.
>>64446555
Lel
Bankrolling Kobe o19 senpaitachi
>>64446996
Absolute sums on tbqh
Anyone know whats up with griffins knee? I want to bet on him but im worried hes gonna pull a kobe
>harden with 2 points in the first half
p m s l at dullards who haven't been backing player - when they match up against kawaii
>betting based on algorithms and statistics, instead of knowledge
how do you even beat bookies like this?
>>64446486
>Ciroc Commercial
>liquor control board warning about getting too drunk
Who spurs +3.5 here?
>>64447429
>not being bulls +7 in the prestake
>not prestaking every NBA game
2 for 2 for yall
Merry Christmas
I might tip next game
>you will never bet on wartime football
>>64447429
rockets -1.5 here
harden pls soften
>>64447455
totally meant the rockets. I confuse red teams
Fuck the NBA. Worst league to ever bet on.
>only scoring 84 points against the Rockets
Should feel bad for themselves
>>64447907
>>64447910
im 3/3 today
Griffin is gonna take o5 free throws
CP3 is gonna o18 points
kobe o18.5 points
>>64447956
fuck i didn't get on paul or griffin
>kobe still 0 points
meme sport
do all old star black players have receding hairlines?
>>64447956
>betting on Kobe
laughingwhores.ascii
>all these kobr bricks
>>64448158
it's almost as if you haven't watched kobe before.
lakers are garbyyyy
>>64448183
then why did we bet overs on him
>Betting on individual player markets because of muh matchups or muh gut feeling
>>64448199
>we
I didn't, why did you blindly following into a bet?
>>64448214
that's what i always do. and that's why my bovada is always at $0
>>64448199
because that rapist faggot was averaging over 20 points a game the last half dozen games and didnt look like complete shit, the problem is hes taken 4 shots in an entire quarter this game
>take 25 shots a game when you're complete garbage and cant hit the broadside of a barn but when you get hot again decide you're gonna stop being a chucking cunt
i hate him so much
>basketball games are a quarter long
>implying Kobe won't chuck 25 shots this game anyway
>>64448250
He is basically the equivalent of a shitposter in sports.
post yfw Kobe doesn't score a single point all game
>All this horse racing today
>waking up early to find that VALUE
best day of the year
>>64448344
>Greedily keeping bets to yourself
>missing the fucking FT
this piece of shit is just taking the piss now
KOBEEEEE REBACKING
Never watched the lakers before this, but seeing Brandon Bass suck this much ass is dissapointing. He played pretty well when I was in college @ LSU watching him
>bricking free throws now
just take him behind the shed and end it already
K
O
B
E
All in on tulsa
999999
>are we looking at 81
>stop
>Are we looking at the Lakers getting to 81
top kek
>that airball
>>64448533
he was fouled! total refball !!
>Home team: 6 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses, GD of -2
>Away team: 11 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss, GD of 13
>Away team is priced as the underdog
Do you bet on the away team?
>>64448580
yes
>>64448580
What's the home and road form? Plus, are they full strength?
>>64448585
>>64448614
>not realising its liverpool/leicester
Imagine
>>64448580
Trick question, it's neither
Bet on Leicester DC instead
>>64448614
Home team are missing 2 first team players including their captain. Their home form is 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses.
Away team are full strength, undefeated away from home - 6 wins, 3 draws.
>>64448657
Which one is the bigger meme team? :^)
>>64448580
going on lester DnB t b h
World Junior Hockey
Not too sure Switzerland will be their stingy self tomorrow so I'd recommend Sweden o3.5 goals tomorrow if you can find it, as well as o5.5 total. The 2.5 handicap would typically worry me but I can see Sweden throttling a weak swizz team at home to open things up.
Finland -4.5 might seem crazy but their offense is loaded. It likely won't quite be as good as the Barkov/Granlund team yet they can score with the best of them. I admittedly don't know much about the Belarus team but they'll finish last in all likelihood and I doubt their goalie will stand on his head this tournament. This game is very toughly priced so I would swerve all together but jump on the Finland handicap of you want to have a giggle.
Weaker Russian team vs solid Czech team. Russia potentially has the best goalie in the tournament. Game seems accurately priced by all accounts. Czech ML if you want value at a stretch imo.
Canada vs USA. Over 6 is my bet. Both teams highly skilled and deep as usual at forward. Neither have goaltenders with unfair lofty expectations and neither have defensive corps I'd write home about. Could be a tight checking game but where's the fun in betting on that.
>>64448678
holy...
>>64448580
>>64448657
Now, if this wasn't Liverpool v Leicester (i.e. mainstream) this would surely be value. So why just because it is mainstream is it not value?
>>64448701
Because sw is never value
>>64448701
Because according to /bet/ only random underage 3rd world slag teams that Mackers bets on is value.
>there are people in ITT who arent putting money on lester raping liverpool
>Mignolel and bog
>anything but at least 0 - 3
m8s cmon this is free money
Vardy to score and Leicester win @ 7 on WH :^)
>>64448740
#Value
cannot wait for this leicester meme to end 2bh
>>64448709
why?
>>64448753
>tfw the Leicester meme will end the moment I bet on them
can someone explain the value meme
>>64448763
A-are you betting on them tomorrow?
Already not betting on Stoke because Mackers is on.
>>64448776
if you think something is more likely to happen than the odds imply it is value
>kobe
>>64448776
Leicester. final score will be 2-1. cap it
Wtb on russian matches? Need gifts for my kids desu senpai
>>64448776
Mainstream games such as lester v liverpool are likely to have large amounts of money wagered on them so bookies and traders will pay more attention to them and price them more strictly and accurately than 5th division filipino womens friendlies
Who are these bookies? and how do they get the job?
Serious question
>>64448791
>he decides this is the game hes gonna stop being a selfish asshole
JUST
>tfw falling asleep now three days in a row and unable to test inplay sc2 bets
>>64448644
What do DC AND SW stand for?
SW is straight win? DC is???
>>64448843
Double Chance. If they draw or win he wins.
>>64448843
sw is simple win, as in just betting a team to win
dc is double chance, as in winning at halftime and fulltime
>>64448843
double chance
>>64448849
that isn't right, dc is draw or win
wait in spanish double chance is a different thing, oh boi
>zelda song in laker's stadium
>>64448849
le clueless third world anon
need this rapist bastard to start chucking like air
kobe pls
>>64448867
that's mean
>>64448887
classic canadian elitists
>>64448887
I apologize, I have been having Trouville nightmares the past few days
PROTIP:
Bet on Anyang KGC, 3 best team in conference playing 3rd worst team in conference
>>64448925
look at the brightside, maybe bookies will price them even more poorly despite being 14-2
any got anything on lakers/clippers?
>>64448945
ur mum
>>64448937
>paying $1.30
um. no.
>>64448937
That Korean basketball league is super fixed
Tulsa +13.5 and o62
Miami o62.5
Marshall -4.5
Nebraska +6.5
>>64448966
it is?
>Mods allowing you to start your FM career with Zalgiris
Comfy desu. Going to match-fix my way towards a CL trophy.
>>64448776
100 divided by odds = implied probability
If you think the chances of a bet winning are better than this, take the bet
As simple as that (though you'll probably get it wrong first)
e.g. Leicester to win @4
100/4 = 25%
Do you have sufficient sackmeat to defy the bookies?
>>64448966
that was a long time ago man, they have cracked down since september
>>64448843
Holy shit, can you imagine the answers this question would get in day/bet/?
Regarding the statistics on Liverpool-Leicester you have to also take into account that Liverpool has a way better coach than their first results and are getting some results from time to time, while Leicester is clearly overperforming and is a matter of time until they blow up
Even then Leicester's odds look like value
>>64449001
we've already been through the what is sw/ah meme previously
>>64448974
thanks friend
4th quarter unders. lakers will give up. And it wont end with a ton of fouls to stop the clock because it's a blowout.
Who /Stoke+Leicester+ArsenalTreble/ here?
>>64449012
They say that every week about Leicester. Maybe they are the real deal.
DnB/DC is definitely value
>>64449042
Mugs.
>>64449044
Why not +0.5 instead of DC?
>>64449042
I'm with you lid
>>64449012
Liverpool havnt truly been in good form recently. Their draw with West brom was mediocre at best and then >Watford.
Also, they havent had good home form either but it could be their lucky day
>>64449042
Also just noticed the CP value, might add them as well.
>>64449012
Their results before/after Klopp aren't any different. They went 3-3-2 before Klopp and are currently 3-3-3 with Klopp
>>64449042
thinking about it m8, was considering putting stoke at draw tho
Cheeky United corners -1 @ 1.8?
>>64449054
eh it's the same thing, but you're right +0.5 has way better odds
is lakers 4th quarter moneyline value? are the clippers going to let up?
This is today's accy. Get on or drown in tears
>>64449127
just imagine if this actually won
the absolute funniest thing is the faggot will get 20 points the very next game on 30 attempts
>>64449145
>implying it won't
Kobe overs aren't coming in are they?
>>64449145
possible, ive had 6 team parlays win before, getting like $700
>>64449164
doesn't seem so
>>64449127
you think everton wont pick up all three points?
>>64449195
>Everton away
Nope, Newcastle are too unpredictable too
Stop fucking scoring jesus
>>64449127
>not winning 1/2 million for x-mas
>>64449127
ON, down to 9 k though
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
>>64449243
whats wrong aussie bro
thought i was home with 100 to go. Absolutely gutted.
up heaps due to the place but fuck me
hope some of you took the $5 a place 2 days ago
>>64449231
I really wish for you to win all that money
>implying that's not a valuebet
i think my under bet just lost
>>64449273
Yeah had a large on place and small on win. Thanks for the tip, lad.
>>64449275
i dont mind making absolute bullshit bets for pennies. If you win the first couple of legs, you can always cash out for some profit. If I got up on >>64449127 these bets, I would cash out. No way I would wager for my full accy, unless I forget about it and accidentally miss the games.
y-you think theyll score 7 more points
>>64449273
forgot about this bet. wasnt on my favourite bookie, so I didn't look yet. Thanks for the tip if you gave it.
never thought updating the sheet would be so tiresome
>>64449127
salivating at all the possible (you)s i'd get if this won
>10 teams played today
>Bulls scored the most points out of them all
>only team to top 100
>>64449380
Everyone was lethargic after Christmas dinner, too many pigs in blankets so they couldn't throw straight. Bookies were clueless
>>64449379
Followed you with pennies. GL lad.
>>64449402
tell me about it. I actually won some bets today for a change
head is gone cannot spake need air want diseases tbpqhwyl
In your opinion:
Which are the most/least profitable mainstream sports?
Which is the most profitable non-mainstream sport?
Name the sports you feel most confident at
Name a sport you thought you were good but are shit
I want to check the different answers to this
>>64449273
>finishes 2nd place
>went on the nose
JUST
anyone into aleague? adelaide have dropped in price. wellington are out to $5 despite being well above them on the ladder.
>>64449471
>Which are the most/least profitable mainstream sports?
NBA/NFL are the most likely to fuck you late with covers
Which is the most profitable non-mainstream sport?
Cricket
Name the sports you feel most confident at
Nrl/Rugby League
Name a sport you thought you were good but are shit
soccer desu
>>64449471
>Which are the most/least profitable mainstream sports?
Most: Cricket. Least: NFL
Which is the most profitable non-mainstream sport?
Of the sports I follow, football (non mainsream)
Name the sports you feel most confident at
Football
Name a sport you thought you were good but are shit
Basketball
>>64449471
>most
whatever you know, except basketball unless live betting
>least
whatever you don't know
>my sport
rugby league >tfw offseason
>thought I was good
basketball prestaking.
>>64449525
Id put the win on adelaide
wellington has injuries and a weak/young center
adelaide has won the last 3 as well
>Adelaide had won the last 3
Didn't they just draw with Newcastle?
>>64449556
they've only won 2 games all season according to the a-league site. already on radelaide though.
Going to continue here since fuck all to bet/post on.
Race 9 Gold Coast, 15. Baligari e/w $9$3
Adelaide horse that's been sneaked up to the Gold coast here after 2 runs back which both were well placed. Should be fitter here and has previous success up here during the winter carnival. I would think it hasn't traveled 2000km to unless the stable thinks it's going to be competitive here.
if i win my 1 million dollar bet tomorrow, i will give 50% of my winnings to unlucky anons on /bet/
>tfw no Andy Harper commentary
;_;
>>64449615
on for $40 each way. good luck to us both.
>>64449628
Whats the bet blood related being
>>64449615
never bet on ponies before where do you get each way option on 365
whats the difference between fixed win and otherwise
pls no bully
>>64449615
prefer aussies love sport desu
>>64449628
What about unlucky trips?
so im thinking
Stoke
Lester
West Ham
West Brom
Palace
City -2
all individual bets of course.
any parlay suggestions?
>>64449680
fixed price is just that, a locked in price.
Tote, SP, or anything labelled something like that is the fluctuating price, which will go down or up depending on where the wagers are going.
Usually better to take the tote unless you are getting on early and predict a lot of late money will come for your horse
>>64449683
chance quality horse, only thing I didn't like was the fact it's change stable's twice now
>>64449706
don't mind little brown horse either for something a bit more risky
should run better here then it's last go with less weight now
>>64449705
is there a place to follow it live?
also cant find e/w anywhere so i put a cheeky tenner on tote place as my virgin horse bet
>>64449731
not sure internationally. maybe 365 stream it but i'd be surprised.
It's shown on Sky racing back home which is a subscription TV channel.
