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Thread replies: 529
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Merry Christmas you degenerate scum edition
UAC from college handegg sub edition
classic /bet/ OC sub subedition


Previous thread: >>64427618

>Helpful links
http://pastebin.com/mDAydpyK
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity

>/bet/ wiki
http://slashbetslash.wikia.com/wiki//bet/_Wikia

>FAQ and abbreviations list for those new to /bet/
http://pastebin.com/tPXwjDi6

>Help for gambling addiction/suicide hotlines
http://pastebin.com/SVqUYKbf

>/bet/ approved spreadsheet for tracking your bets
http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel
>>
>>64434607
1st for ANTI-ALTITUDE
>>
Hmmmm.

I'll allow it.
>>
>tfw you meet a really nice girl but not sure if she is quite attractive enough to be your gf

what do lads?
>>
>on San Diego state -2.0 and San Diego Chargers +6.0 LARGE prestaked

Hopefully UAC this chrissy. Ameribe ts finally on to a winner.
>>
2nd for literal DOUBLE RAINBOW over the Hawaii bowl edition.
>>
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>tfw no greek gf

up brains tho
>>
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literally the comfiest college handegg bet ive ever been on
>>
Marina
a
r
i
n
a
>>
>>64434669

I thought you didnt want greek anymore?
>>
>>64434647
Have sex
>>
>>64434698
Last night I didn't. Tonight I do. Hopefully 4 more nights of binge drinking will solve it.
>>
Glad i went special on sd state :-))))))))))
>>
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>>64434871
>Glad i went special on sd state
>>
>>64434871
>tfw o56.5

Fucking ripip
>>
is spurs -6.5 over rockets THE bet for tomorrow? Hardens going to get smothered by kawai uguu and spurs have been playing unbelievable defense
>>
>>64434749
>binge drinking
'Tis the season
>>
>>64434987
>NBA
>prestake

Pick 1
>>
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>>
Finally got on the right side of a blowout. Merry Christmas /bet/
>>
>>64435021
You can say that about any sport
>>
>>64435021
if the spurs start hot the spread wont move down at all and they wont give up the lead
>>
>>64435021
what is prestaking
>>
>>64435044
Betting before the game starts. I don't have problems with it in some cases; others it's better to wait until it's in play
>>
>>64435030
Merry Christmas man
>>
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Kinda wishing I took that "team to get blanked" prop bet
>>
Merry christmass all
If you're not in profit this year stop betting
Shout out to my fellow Ameribettors
Lets make /bet/ great again
>>
>Giving the ball to a kid is unsportsmanlike
Neat
>>
>>64435060
when is it best to prestake vs when is it best to bet in play?
im new to sports betting
>>
>>64435185
It's a feel thing for me. For the most part, high - lines are better to wait until in play. Some lines I look at and just know are off by at least a few points, so I prestake them
>>
>>64435185
It depends on if the line is going to move, which is a skill in and of itself. Mostly if you think there is going to be a blowout but it's pretty difficult.

If you know the sport in play offers a lot of value in basketball. Football is pretty solid for in play as well though but the opportunity is much rarer.
>>
Are tipping pools worth it? If many people play those tips, wouldn't the knowledge get spread around anyway? What kind of information are tips? High margins, low margins or both?
>>
>>64435373
depends on the tipper. most things tipped here by actually good brits we can't bet on anyway, as our bookies won't offer markets that onscure. If you learn enough about soccer there are some decent tips in the non-mainstream but non-obscure markets.

I haven't seen any paid tipping services that are worthwhile for Americans t b h.
>>
>>64435373
>What kind of information are tips?

altitude, fatigue, wind mostly

the only thing you need to know is dont blow your roll on bets even if you are 100% convinced its a sure thing, and dont chase on losses, as long as you remember that you will survive long enough to pick up all the other info you need
>>
sorry for so many questions, I also am curious if you hedge your bets if the odds change?
>>
>>64435493
If the odds shift massively occasionally I will, but usually I don't
>>
>Christianity wiki in helpful links

How long has this been there?
>>
>>64435493
hedging is good if things go completly wrong and you see an opportunity but you shouldnt be hedging every losing bet.
>>
>>64435493
Generally even with decent shift after you've already staked, you're likely to only guarantee around 5% profit with hedging. So only recommended if you have staked large and are uncertain. Small bets it's not very effective.
>>
>>64435527
I want to say it's been there since that one thread on the Protestant Reformation, which was immediately followed by a thread on Thomas Aquinas.
>>
>>64435576

Just checked the last few. J West snook it in there a few threads ago when he made one.
>>
>>64435493
if you've put yourself in too many positions that you need to hedge you're doing something wrong. that being said if you're watching a sport you know well and everything in your instincts is screaming at you that you should hedge (implying your initial position was probably horrible) then it's a valid tool
>>
RAIDERS
A
I
D
E
R
S
>>
that raiders fan flipping the bird hahaha
>>
>>64435712

Jesus that dude sucked ass. I'd be embarrassed to play for the Raiders.
>>
>>64435747
You must be great at parties
>>
>>64435747
i feel like their fan base is pretty solid. These niggas are wild. Black and grey are pretty dope colors too, saw someone pull off a darth vader in the pregame show
>>
Nervous for the Chargers. Need this win. Also put $50 on 2.9 odds for Arsenal. Wish me luck lads
>>
>>64435823
luck m8
>>
these raiders fans xD
>>
>>64435823
>Nervous for the Chargers.
If you prestake you need them to lose this now.
>>
>tfw raiders prestake
tie tie tie tie tie
>>
these fucking raiderscum need to score
>>
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>>64435974
>these fucking raiderscum need to score
our best bet is a tie and coin toss win -> TD m8
>>
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COIN TOSS WIN
O
I
N
T
O
S
S
W
I
N
>>
>>64435747
I'm sure the Raiders would be embarrassed to have you laying for them
>>
>>64436022
nah i need chargers to win by 7 now fuck that, i learned too late not to hedge
>>
I prestaked Chargers from the begining
>>
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>>64436086
>hedging nfl games

m8

Mate
>>
>>64436104
If I knew cooper was going to be so ineffective I wouldn't have taken Oakland t b h. Though I probably wouldn't have taken the chargers either.
>>
Warriors -6.5 tomorrow desu
>>
>>64436158
i have some stupid hedges on this too
>>
Ffs thought the epl games were tomorrow
>>
>>64436210
Spurs -6.5 looks THE GOODS too desu
>>
>>64436210
line will drop if cavs keep it close for a quarter

lelbron will pull in money
>>
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>the city of all these penalties
>>
Penalties: The Game
>>
>>64436278
>line will drop if cavs keep it close for a quarter
will it though? I'm back and forth on prestaking it.
>>
merry christmas you cucks
>>
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>>64436342
merry Christmas man
>>
>>64436330
im avoiding prestaking it, either the cavs keep it close and the line shifts or the warriors go on a early tear and cavs + handis start looking good
>>
>>64436428
Think the Warriors will win by double digits personally
>>
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>>64436428
>im avoiding prestaking it, either the cavs keep it close and the line shifts or the warriors go on a early tear and cavs + handis start looking good
good call family
>>
>>64436456
really? I think the warriors will win but i see it being close, cant imagine them winning by double digits
>>
>>64436554
warriors lost to the bucs, easy choice with the cavs prestake
>>
>>64436554
Cavs struggle against good teams on the road. Think the cavs keep it close for a bit, then GS goes ham. Either way, getting on Lebron overs for points
>>
fuck
>>
Whats your go-to betting agency? I use Bovada, but it seems glitchy, should I look into something else?

Also, Bovada doesnt show the lines for the NHL games tomorrow, am I retarded or are they not available until the day of?
>>
>>64436793
im not sure but i think americans can use william hill and bodog
>>
>>64436793
No lines because there's no games tomorrow probably
>>
>>64436811
they any good?
>>
>>64436793
>Also, Bovada doesnt show the lines for the NHL games tomorrow, am I retarded or are they not available until the day of?
The lines are available when they're available. I don't bet on lottery on ice anymore so I couldn't tell you how early NHL lines come up.

Bovada is the main american betting site desu but there are others, especially if you're okay operating in bitcoins.
>>
>>64436811
>im not sure but i think americans can use william hill and bodog
only if you live in Nevada afaik
>>
>>64436832

WH is decent, worth an account
>>
Alright you cheeky scrubs, got some UFC bets for you but its on the 2nd of Jan, only doing it now because some lines may shift etc

Poirier @ 2.87 - shouldn't be that big of a dog, this is much more of a toss up fight

Dober @ 2.40 - Holtzman looked a bit sloppy in his debut against a rather poor opponent. Dober is more experienced and is probably fighting for his job. I don't see why Dober doesn't win a close decision, again this is more of a toss up.

Tony Sims @ 2.0- has very slick hands which showed when he won his debut by a 1st round KO, lost his second fight by being grapplefucked. Trujilo does have some good wrestling but prefers to stand and bang. As long as this stays standing I see Sims having the advantage.

Brandao @ 2.80- Only really lost to top fighters in the UFC (McGregor, Poirier and Elkins). Won his last 2 in the first round. Ortega is a good prospect but still somewhat green, showed a lot of heart and grit in his last fight. If Brandao does win its likely to be an early stoppage.

Larkin @ 2.80- looked like a beast in his 2 first fights at WW, knocking out both opponents. Tumenov is one of the best prospects at WW but if he doesn't knock you out early the fights tend to be quite close. Larkin has only been stopped by Costas Phillipou who is a massive MW.

Westcott/Garcia Under 1.5 @ 2.10- both very aggressive fighters, who tend to go for it early on.

Kish/Noke @ 1.90- Noke is fighting a guy coming in on 2 weeks notice as well as making his UFC debut. Kish is a good prospect who is 4-0
>>
>>64436888
>haram
>>
>>64436888
>all these literally whos

t-thanks uncle dana
>>
>>64436941
halal in the streets, haram in the sheets

;)
>>
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Marshall -4.5 for Saturday as well
>>
>>64436210
This game is gonna be decided by one or two scores dont touch that spread senpai.
>>
>>64436986
top kek, I'm using that the net time a white girl wants my muslim sausage
>>
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>>64437006
Too late senpai
>>
I went 4-0, 2-1,4-1,7-1 in recent events I this any indication whether you should trust me

I would wary betting on larkin against tumenov.

My picks are Poirier, Brandao and Condit. Tanaki and Arlovski looks good but riskier.
>>
>>64437019
part of me wishes i could go down to a local bookies to make bets sometimes, the feel of the cash and receipts and degenerate atmosphere is really appealing in some ways
>>
>>64437053
I met a 60 year old black guy with an absolutely banging hot Eastern European wife over half his age there the other day. Asked him how big his dick had to be to score that and he said his dick was the size of a matchstick and that he ate pussy really good. Said she buys him all types of stuff which I found interesting.
>>
>>64437053
Also if you commit to this your less likely to go down there to put on a bet your not confident in.
>>
Reminder to back eloping and you might just get eloped
>>
>>64437019
A-are you in vegas for christmas?
>>
>>64437069
>Ameribets harassing old people about their dicks
>Maple hunting trannies
>Uni beating his gf
Is this the most degenerate general on 4chan?

>>64437072
Yeah, but you're a lot more likely to place daft bets once you are there since you cba to keep going back. There are people who literally spend all daylight hours there. Physical bookies are decidedly -ev
>>
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>spurs line already moving up
>>
Shanghai Women over 7.5 goals total
>>
>>64436967
there should be a lot of spicy bangers though
>>
Is there an option to parley bets on Bovada
>>
>>64437267
1k on o5.5 @1.5

Time to sleep and either straight to the cyanide chamber tomorrow or dominoes.
>>
>>64437282

I don't get this, it seems like it's 1st half only? Yet it says game total
>>
>>64437282
did it win
>>
>>64437279
Yes but not bets on the same game
>>
>>64437284
>>64437289
Still hasn't settled.
>>
>>64437294
>suspended and every market gone
>the city of this trader
>>
>>64437303
Aaannndd removed. Same happened with another Shanghai handball game last week. Trader truly clueless.

My bet was settled as a win though.
>>
>Not getting the value that is Afghanistan tonight to demolish a weak Zimbabwe squad which they destroy less than two months ago.
>>
>>64437312
based

tip the pizza guy a little something extra for christmas
>>
>>64437312

Mine lost, time to fire on the live chat
>>
>>64437303
well I know who's getting sacked on boxing day when the big boys come back in the office
>>
>>64437318
Should get voided. Make that trader sweat.

>Wanted to wait for 3 more minutes of Yuen Long rball

zzzzzzzz
>>
>>64437313
is this the weeklong cricket or the day long cricket, cba to make a weeklong bet family
>>
>>64437333
iktfb
>>
>>64437334
day
>>
>>64437339
Oh well gives me the opportunity to sleep. See if I can wake up for a cheeky check on the Chinese Handball slag game in an hour.
>>
>>64437353

Wow they are saying the bet lost since mercy rule
>>
>>64437378
m'cuck
>>
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>>64437378
what
>>
>inplay ends at half-time
>mercy rule

Specifically for any competition that uses a Mercy Rule, in the event of such a Rule being called in a match, all bets will stand on the score at the time.

ABSOLUTE TEARS
>>
>>64437402
What was the score? I think the rule is a lead of 15+ at halftime but I've only ever seen that applied in grassroots level games
>>
A-anyone on Yuen Long?
>>
>>64437427
yeah m8, on 1-0 and 2-0
>>
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>>64437427
Yeah senpai big fan of Yung Lean, who doesn't love a bit of meme rap
>>
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>>64437423

The magic of Christmas :^)
>>
>>64437439
HEH

Kyoto a banger tho not even gonna lie
>>
>>64437442
that's how you know they fucked up lel

at least you get it back I suppose though
>>
>>64437451

Actually it's in their rules, since one team was up by 15 at the half.
>>
You sweating too senpai?
>>
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>>64437427
>>64437439
just got on, don't really understand the line. Someone help me, seems too easy
>>
>>64437475
i place baby bets on high returns for no worries
>>
>>64437491
they are both shitty teams. HK is slightly better with a better record against YL. Went from like 2.6 to -1.35
>>
>>64437491
DAs are roughly even and rangers beat them in a cup game a few weeks ago
>>
Tears
>>
Kill. Me. Now
>>
damn HK
>>
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lmao went on for fun and HK scores
>>
>>64437515
>>64437509
Had a throwup between over 1.5 HT and Yuen next goal, rip
>>
why are so many americans and moose americans awake this early, are you guys trying to catch santa?
>>
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>>64437528
You tryna ta catch dese hands nigga
>>
my rball loaded too late. how the fuck did i bet on that?

>the city of those previous game scores
no offense to anyone who recommended that at all. Love you /bet/ Merry Christmas!

Aslo,
Seahawks +14 is going to hit like high impact sexual violence
>>
fuck it im gonna catch this 1-1
>>
Basketball under 20 points 2nd quarter ;^) HIGH RISK HIGH REWARDS DESU SENPAI
>>
>>64437528
#NoTimeForSleep
#GrindMode
#StriveForGreatness
>>
>>64437569
>>64437541
are you the american asking about hedging and etc earlier? what % of your roll are you staking per bet
>>
>>64437599
roll as in total cash allocated to gambling?
like 10 dollar bets out of 75 total.
>>
Jiangsu -15.5
>>
>>64437629
way too much, especially when its addict bets on games with little info.

stick to 2 or 3 bucks for these types of bets and the cheeky fivers and tenners on stuff you are more comfortable and informed on.
>>
>>64437675
How do I know if im addicted?
>>
>>64437699
When you're up at 4am watching the rball for a Chinese u17 women's hackysack match.
>>
>>64437699
addict bets are just bets like this when nothing else is on and you feel like doing something its like eating out of boredom

you'll know you are addicted if you start wagering money you cant afford to lose. Thats why you bet small %s of your total bankroll, never go all in on anything, and dont chase losses
>>
>>64437342
Why is it @2.15?
>>
I really don't get these handball odds. Why is it @ 15 for Even match score
>>
>>64437754

Value bet desu lads
>>
im out lids, dont lose too much money, save some for the apehoop tomorrow afternoon
>>
>>64437810

wtb
>>
>>64437744
Zimbabwe have more name recognition in world cricket despite the fact Afghanistan have beaten them convincly in the last 2 months.
>>
>>64437828
Afghanistan with rambo was good at the world cup afaik?
>>
>>64437879
There top 3 killed it in Zimbabwe especially Nabi.

Zimbabwe in the mean time have been getting smashed since and lost their best spinner on the spin wicket.

It's by no means a lock but Afghanistan are value and will provide trades
>>
Who /degenerate/ here?
>>
>>64437427
what league? Or was it in-play and I missed it
>>
>>64438133
You "missed" a huge upset senpai, ripip
>>
>Haven't touched cfb since the last week of the regular season
>Find out 10 minutes ago that San Diego State's spread was -3

OH MY GOD THAT WAS THE FREEEST SHEKELS ALL YEAR AND I WASNT ON GODDAMN IT FUCK SHIT ASS TITS
>>
so what's likely to be the Christmas bet? Reminder that traders take the day off so there is value everywhere
>>
Hope Rossy Boy chokes on his turkey
>>
>>64438178
was comfy as fuck they literally scored from the kickoff and it was ridiculously smooth sailing all game
>>
>Stamatova

Jesus fuck I didn't know they fixed Tennis matches
>>
>>64438222
The christmas bet is to spend time with your loved ones instead of being a degenerate betting on jewish football
>>
>>64438222

Traders don't take the day off you mug

Someone has to sit at a computer and trade these games so you mugs can do your bollocks in
>>
Just put a small in the collection plate lids
>>
>>64438353
-ev
>>
Cooking Christmas dinner for everyone, gran criticising my cooking. Gonna test her chin soon.
>>
>>64438421
chat shit
>>
>this skedge
Zzzzzzz

At least tomorrow looks surreal. Get researching lads.
>>
>>64438439
Imagine if there was organised research on /bet/. Imagine how UAC we could all be if we pooled resources and shared info. IMAGINE.
>>
Ellerslie R1

Silk Chardonnay- Juicy odds at $8 to place nice lightweight chance

Wingatui R1

Lady Jessica - Home track and claiming a few kgs, ran some good races past 2 starts after a long break $18 and $4.60 are some nice odds E/W

Wingatui R7

Southern Sav - Class horse wide barrier and weight slight concern but is a lot stronger horse than most in the race $3.50 for place is well value E/W

Also like I Spied at Awapuni R2 first starter recently gelded could run a strong race or be complete dog shit
>>
>>64438465
/bet/ was actually like that 2 years ago. Like every board and general it only keeps getting worse.
>>
Air, two new sets of accounts for Christmas
>>
Why aren't you at mass /bet/? What's your excuse for beinga degenerate cuckold?
>>
>>64438439
Sri Lanka + botd
>>
>>64438504
>writing on your phone at mass

The lowest of the low
>>
Stop. Posting. Here.

It's Christmas Day. PLEASE spend time with your family.
>>
>>64438520
-ev
>>
>>64438520
/bet is my family
>>
>>64438525

PGA is my home brother
>>
>>64438520
Family all dead
>>
>>64438520
Got a PGA subscription for crimbo ffs what do they expect me to be doing.
>>
>>64438507
Or just postpone Christmas lunch, watch the stream and J U D G E
>>
Backing South Africa to beat England @ 2.37. I'm going medium on it.
>>
What's everyone having for Christmas dinner? Fucking starving here.
>>
Would LOVE to see Rossy boy's Christmas dinner.
>>
>>64438617

>PGA paid for it
>>
>dream about my mates ex making out with me
Wake up
>tfw no gf
Happy christmas /bet/. Looking forward to boxing day races.
>>
So the guy who said he got the PGA rap recorded and would post it here today. He wasn't lying was he? Been looking forward to it quite a lot desu.
>>
NO NO, NO NO NO NO, NO NO NO NO, NO NO, THERES NO VALUE
>>
>>64438647

lel that was me lid, was lying desu senpai have a nice Christmas tho m8
>>
>>64438743

Fuck off cunt, ruined my day
>>
I've been fairly profitable for a few years now, but it's always been a side thing until the middle of this year when it became my full time occupation. I've made well into 5 figures in the last 6 months betting 5-6 days a week on average.
I would like to keep things vague but am happy to provide some sort of proof if wanted. I'm not going to bore you with the concept of "value bets", but I'll happily field any questions.
>>
>>64438745
I'll do it tonight when I've had a few baileys liddo.
>>
>>64438761

Thanks reddit
>>
>>64438544
+2.5 gone, +2.25 gone, +2 going. Shrewdies know.
>>
Imagine the janitors deleting my post on Christmas Day. Imagine.
>>
>>64438763

:)
>>
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Peter Webb is absolute banter
>>
a l b a n i a
>>
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>all these yids and muzzies playing football on the 1st day of Christmas
>>
>>64439054
>1st day of Christmas
>>
So so bored
>>
>>64439128
Get off your phone and talk to your gran ya fanny
>>
>>64439133
Don't have any living grandparents lid
>>
CSKA Moscow -1.5 vs Lada
Bars Kazan ML vs Cherepovets

KHL hockey in a few hours because what the hell else is there to bet on
>>
Are pensions the most +ev thing ever?
>>
>>64439136
Worst feel
>>
>>64439139
#IN since nothing else to bet on
>>
>>64439141

No. How have you worked that one out?
>>
>>64439094
>24th
Christmas Eve. Celebrate Christmas with family.
>25th
1st day of Christmas. Chill and cure hangover. Play with gifts and eat leftovers.
>26th
2nd day of Christmas. Christmas lunch with family. Drink lots of schnapps.

Objections, worm?
>>
>>64439185

>Dat tax relief
>Dat interest
>>
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>There are people in this thread right now celebrating Christmas
>There are people in this thread right now not looking at the schedule for fixes
>There are people in this thread right now thinking about the Top-EPL accy on boxing day
>mfw I would test their chins
>mfw I would delete their jaws' with ease
>>
Leicester DC is a special desu
>>
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>>64439266
>>
India players looking BLOATED. They've had three courses and are trying to play 90 mins v Sri Lanka ffs. Their goalkeeper has brought some CRACKERS out pmsl. Plus is still a LARGE.
>>
>This Zimbabwe Collapse
>>
>>64439259
post accy
>>
>You are now imagining Christmas in metaKnight's storage unit.
>>
how many bets unsettled do you currently have?
>>
>>64439188
Danebro got it down.
Currently playing PS4 after a delicious leftover-lunch with my family. Gonna go see a movie later and hopefully get some comfy NBA-bets in. Getting hyped for tomorrow:
>pl watchan
>delicious food eatan
>hanging out with the_lads
>beer drinkan
>>
Tyreke Evans over 15.0 points is the play in the first game today lads.

Finally has some games under his belt now, will get his opportunity to score points in this one with Bosh/Whiteside likely forcing the ball away from Davis as much as possible.
>>
>>64439381
What is what is going in there lad busy watching jingle all the way with my gran and cousins?
>>
>>64439532
>The players take a dinner break. Not many would have thought that Zimbabwe would be struggling in their chase. Credit to Afghanistan for fighting extremely hard despite defending a low total.

28/3 after 11 need 104 more

>dinner break
>>
>>64439547
Cheers mate I hope it is T20 with those totals
>>
>>64439555
One day m8, these totals aren't uncommon with the none top "8" teams
>>
South Africa in /bet/ what a time to be alive. Merry Christmas m8.
>>
Alright lads, what is THE NBA bet today?
>>
>>64439754
https://mobile.twitter.com/MagnusBarstad

Wait for this guy to tell us
>>
>>64439762
If you can decipher that chingchang talk for me, it'd be much appreciated.
>>
>>64439775

Just click on view translation
>>
>>64439762
>balding, manlet, bookie shill giving out tips in a video in which he is speaking a language no one understands
>>
>>64439829

That doesn't work though
>>
>>64439884
Some guy posted his Twitter earlier this week, but he used to just tweet out his bets. Gonna need that guy translate.
>>
>>64439891
if you can't translate in app copy/paste into Google translate.
>>
Merry Christmas /bet/ :3
>>
>>64439906
What are the bets for the NBA games?
>>
>>64439906
Merry Christmas m8
>>
>>64439923
Golden State -6.5
>>
:^)

^Gooz on Christmas
>>
Anything decent on the box lids?
>>
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>>64439884
>balding, manlet, bookie shill giving out tips in a video in which he is speaking a language no one understands
>>64439904
didn't realize the fucking Christmas day games were in a video tip. what an asshole. who does that? what possible market is there for Norwegian language Christmas day american basketball tips?

>tfw a girl you used to bang and are still kind of in love with is engaged to a Norwegian guy and you're wondering if he could translate the tips for you
hmmm
>>
>>64439923
Also Spurs -6.5, o201, and Anthony Davis o24.5 points
>>
>>64439941
I put something decent in your mom's box

Merry Christmas britbro
>>
>>64439923
Wait til the game tips off
>>
Worried about tipperleaks desu
>>
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>see marshall vs connecticut game start at 6 am
>sleep early and wake up at 6 am
>look for stream but can't find one
>read schedule again
>says game is tomorrow
>>
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>11 am
>haven't opened gifts yet
>haven't had family breakfast yet
>going to have to excuse myself from christmas festivities to check nba in play
>>
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Merry Christmas /bet/
>>
>>64439139
Gonna kill a nigga
>>
WTB
>>
>>64440326
Leicester to beat Liverpool
>>
Overs or Unders in the Heat game lids?
>>
>>64440355
I personally have +5/unders
>>
Davis o24.5 looking good
>>
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Spurs and OKC on SPECIAL
>>
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>>64439935
>>
>>64440363
unders is looking decent, got on heat ML from trader mistake keeping two different lines open (one was -300 and another was -650) unfortunately only put $30 because I thought it was an error that was going to be corrected
>>
>tfw Moscow will literally never score again in our lifetimes this year ever
>>
>>64440738
they have shootouts in khl, right?
>>
>>64440606
>Davis o24.5 looking good
The New Orleans Anthony Davis>>64440606
>>
>>64440751
Yeah I believe so.
>>
>>64440671
spread or ML?
>>
Goddamn Joakim Noah is one ugly ass motherfucker
>>
>>64440806
Say that to his face and not online
>>
Wtb on the GSW game?
Also mfw it's 80 degrees on Christmas
>>
>>64440850
Idk, he's a pretty big guy...
>>
>>64440868
For who?
>>
Also, Moscow owner going to withhold the teams next paychecks if they lose this game. Wouldn't sweat it.
>>
Merry Christmas, what's the /bet/?
Currently on egypt slags
>>
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>miami heat ML is 1/6 to win on american site
>bet365 is 5/17 for heat ML
>place $10 bet on pelicans at 5/1
>suddenly all lines freeze and heat ML goes to 1/4
bookies clueless
>>
>>64440915
>fractional odds
>>
How does Steph curry total points rebounds and assist o40 sound?
>>
>>64440924
it's easier to quickly convert american odds to fractional odds than decimal odds
>start 1.34, place bet on opposing 5.25 line, and 1.37 now
>>
>Anthony Davis double double at the half
went too small t b h
>>
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>>64440983
>le injury future big mvp man
reasonable doubt desu
>>
>>64440926
Risky. Curry hasn't been good on Christmas in his career
>>
>win a bet
>should be happy
>instead filled with crushing self-hatred for not staking my entire bankroll

anyone else get this?
>>
>>64441120
I is the warriors still the bet?
>>
>>64441144
Definitely. Nice trip dub dubs by the way
>>
>>64441161
Ml or -6.5
>>
>>64440888

So go LARGE on Moscow win?
>>
>>64441183
'no'
>>
>>64441173
I'm on -6.5
>>
Colts +3 looks like a gift
>>
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>>64441144
>>64441299
drew bledsoe checked
>>
>have $60 on heat vs pelicans game
>only will win $2 unless ryan anderson can fix his shit and start making 3's to keep pelicans close
>>
>Thunder -9.5
>Warriors -7

What do we think m8s?
>>
>>64441353
lets throw in the spurs too, and make betaknighy proud
>>
>Maple's hockey tip
>>
>>64441120
That literally means nothing you mong. How can you compare 2011 Curry to 2015. Idiot.
>>
>>64439762
Translation:

Anthony Davis O24.5
Wade O20

Rose O13.5
Gasol O11.5 Rebounds
OKC -7.5
OKC/CHI O203.5

Curry O30.5
Cavs +8.5

HOU/SA O200

Chris Paul O8.5 Assists
Kobe O19.5
>>
Cavs ML too tempting, Lebron knows it's Christmas and everyone is watching.
>>
what a fucking comeback. Hope NO can hold it
>>
>miami heat blowing a lead
>getting outscored by 18-8 at home vs the 14th team in the west
>losing to a 0/7 0 pts tyreke evans
>>64441511
thanks bruh
>>
>>64441353
Thunder game is a no bet or Bulls +9.5
>>
>that slow as drive to the rim by wade
>>
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>>64441511
BRO
>>
OT got me sweating
>>
>>64441671
>pelicans can get btfo after blowing this opportunity
>unders might get ruined if this goes to a 3 OT game
>>
>got under 168 before the heat choked the game away

Time to go for a walk
>>
is any part of the sticky useful for daily fantasy? my dad gave me 100 deposit on fan duel trademark and im looking for some tips on game selection
>>
>>64441722
Don't think anyone here does daily fantasy. Can't be sure though
>>
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>>64441722
>>
>>64441722
Hot picks:
>Odell Becum
>Leveon Balls
>Paytons Manning
>>
>>64441744

what exactly did you mean by this? im thinking of putting 50 on a double up tournament (665 entries, top 300 double up) and then 25 on a head2head and then 25 on one of the big tournaments (for the yolo)

>>64441761

I don't need help picking the lineups m8, just on game selection
>>
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>>64441784
>>
Lebron o29?
>>
>fanduel
>>
>>64441803

you stupid fucking canadian kuck ur country is going to get fucked by syrians, but i guess you wont mind since all your women already fuck every single black male in sight. disgusting canadian shit, youre nothing you milk bag sucker
>>
>>64441807
YES
>>
>>64441798
it is. pretty sure they delay tip offs on these games until the prior game is finished.
>>
>>64441722
>is any part of the sticky useful for daily fantasy? my dad gave me 100 deposit on fan duel trademark and im looking for some tips on game selection
I can't daily fantasy because of the state I live in but I'm a pretty dialed in on fantasy if you have any questions
>>
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>pelicans
JUST
>>64441839
>>
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>>64441839
Calm down jorge

check redditt there is probably a whole page for fan dueling queer shit
>>
grabbing OKC 1st quarter +7.5 right now
>>
>>64441851

yea i live in new york but am down in miami for the holidays so i cant really either, but its basically free money my dad gave me so i just wanna try and double it up.

im looking at bortles v saints (obvious)
desean/kirk cousins stack (revenge game/clinching division on the line/iggles D sucks)
chark west (big game against a soft D)
>>
Will OKC ML ever evens this game? Gonna lump on if it does and wait for the impending 3rd/4th quarter collapse from bulce
>>
Gasol rebounds when
>>
>>64441465
>tfw only 1 won
>>
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>/bet/
>>
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>>64442050
>>
>>64442073
Lel that's pretty solid
>>
how many bets on average do (you) place a day?
>>
GS -7.5 ?
>>
>>64442131
Should still win
>>
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If that ruined my bet I'd be pissed at that shot
>>
>>64442130
depends on the day, some days there's 0-12 NBA games and some days there's mostly blacklisted teams but I'd say 1-5 on the average weekday, 5-10 on the weekend
>>
>blake griffin o23.5 points
>against the lelkers

le free money face
>>
>>64442231
>implying he won't get ejected
>>
Worth getting on OKC if it goes into + handis?
>>
>SPENDING CHRISTMAS ON /bet/
>SPENDING CHRISTMAS ON /bet/ WHEN THERE ARE ZERO GOOD BETS AND ONLY MAINSTREAM SHIT

PLEASE HAVE SEX
>>
bulls with the lead im still sane
>>
Okc+12.5 fh is one of those in play value bets we Americans talk about (:
>>
>>64442279
theres also kobe o19.5, and you know hes gonna be chucking like its his last day on earth against the clippers on christmas
>>
>>64442518
Yeah I'm def getting on that. He's been hot lately.
>>
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>>64442518
You just know.
>>
>>64442490
Ah yes, one of those you don't tip and only mention afterwards. It's called aftertiming :)
>>
All I wanted for christmas was Notts County to go into administration.
>>
>>64442618
Still plenty of time
>>
Just bottled my gran after she told me I couldn't gamble for a living
>>
>>64442692

>not having a supportive gran who asks about your bets and tomorrows skedge and sometimes checks the estonian team sheets for you
>>
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What the hell does this mean
>>
>>64442720
What is the new obsession with this guy? He works for unibet for fucks sake, he isn't going to be dropping world tips.
>>
>>64442720
Lump on Oklahoma City as Durant and Westbrook are about to take over.
>>
>>64442720
okc is above 2.0, jump on it because durant and westbrook will start scoring a lot soon
>>
>>64442739
Correct.
>>64442732
>Implying unibet loses money on this
It just engages more people to bet and get into wasting their money
>>
>Cavs at 3.40 to win

should I?
>>
>Bulls with this lead
>>
>>64442777
What do you mean? If unibet has endorsed someone who turns a consistent profit giving out nba tips to 3.5K people, of course they will lose money.
>>
>>64442781
'no'
>>64442786
Blunder +5.5 @1.87
>>
>>64442781
devilish bet magnus

personally im waiting for in play and getting on cavs + handis if its a blowout or warriors once the line drops
>>
took okc at +6.5
>>
who cavs ml here
>>
>>64442794
I get your point man, but I really doubt they would do it if they did lose money on it.

I know I personally wouldnt be on 7 NBA games today if it wasnt for Magnus. It's definitely making more people play, especially since NBA isn't really popular at all in Norway.
I'm certain they make alot more money from people starting accounts and throwing their money away than they lose on people winning on his bets.

He didn't post many bets on his twitter today, but put up a video in which he had like 12 bets. Would've translated it for you lads but I was at the cinema with my family when he released it...
>>
okc shook af
>>
Fuck me lads
>>
lel I litteraly put money on Oklahoma to win

bad decisions general
>>
Taking+11.5 now
>>
>>64442862
>put $140 on okc ml at the half
JUST
>>
>>64442794
>These degenerates will not bet on any sports outside of the NBA
>These degenerates will not blow all their money once the NBA season is over
>These degenerates have any sense of bankroll management

Unibet really just enticing people to get into betting and reaping the profits in the long term.
>>
>>64442848
"I know I personally wouldnt be on 7 NBA games today if it wasnt for Magnus"

Exactly.

The point is this guy is not a WINNING bettor. A betting site is never going to endorse and publicise someone who wins more than he loses for people to follow. Why would they do that?
>>
Relax lux the nba judge is on okc, they win
>>
>>64442870
ive found ML bets on apehoop are terrible value
>>
>>64442898
didn't want to take a spread after pelicans blew it despite going to OT and having a chance to win
was on +5.5 and they lost by 6
>bulls ML spread was 1/20 and is now 1/6
>>
haha holy shit this refball, refs confirmed for betting on thunder
>>
bulls arent going to get a single foul call for them in the 4th quarter
>>
Need to chase. What bet does Magnus have the most units on for the rest of the evening?
>>
c-comeback?
>>
>Butler chucking it on a 4 on 2 break
Ayy
>>
>>64442980
chris paul over 8,5 assists - 8 or 9 units

got 7 on kobr o19 as well
>>
>>64443024
Serving up that comeback on a platter. :^)
>>
Just two more gasol rebounds pls
>>
Imagine not taking OKC when they were +11.5. Imagine.
>>
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>from 5% to ~16.6% chance to win
G-getting some hope right now for a christmas miracle, just need some more refball
>>
>>64443033
fuck magnus better not mackers this
>>
>>64443043

>ref waits to see if the ball goes in to blow for the foul to avoid a 3 point play

jesus christ its christmas do these cunts have no sense of decency? No offense to /bet/bros with money on the blunder
>>
>>64443069
>tfw refball in your favor as a Thunder backer
An odd feeling really. Should've been a foul on Gasol a few plays ago
>>
>>64443069
i'd like to imagine it's all part of a scripted christmas miracle ending with a kevin durant or westbrook heave buzzer beater to win/tie the game to blow out bulce in OT
>>
Need the Thunder to win so that I can buy one of those sweet Bulls jerseys with my winnings.
>>
>>64443033
Isn't it the HOU/SA over?
Chris Paul is 8u
O200 HOU/SA is 9u
>>
>>64443137
You're right, my bad. I forgot about the spurs game!
>>
BULLSHIT
>>
M A G N U S
10.5 rebounds-Gasol and o15 Rose is in.
>>
9pts in 37s lads

B E L I E V E
E
L
I
E
V
E
>>
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o-oh well, back to the neg days of utah state and bowling green
h-hopefully marshall doesn't blow it tomorrow
>>
shaking at the thought of how many bricks harden is gonna put up with kawaii uguu guarding him
>>
>Rose o24 points + rebounds + assists
>fouls out
JUST
>>
New here, what accys are everyone putting on tomorrow?
>>
>>64443209
0/10
>>
>>64443209
You're not old enough to gamble
>>
I WANT MY MONEY BACK REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
>>
Gonna have to say cavs+7
They gotta get revenge on them high yellow nigras
>>
>>64443285
>racism
>>
>>64443042
Magnus twitter is fucking money.
>>
Merry Christmas you savage degenerates
>>
On Cavs ML and Cavs +6.5, idgaf. This is THE entertainment game for me today. Merry Christmas brothers.
>>
>>64443360
>prestaking on this game

why? Literally wait 5 minutes into the game and you could get a higher handicap or a better warriors spread
>>
>>64443329
There has always been a rift between light skinned and dark skinned negros. Goes back to slavery for obvious reasons...
>>
>>64442873
>The point is this guy is not a WINNING bettor. A betting site is never going to endorse and publicise someone who wins more than he loses for people to follow. Why would they do that?
It's called advertising you dipshit. Every retail industry ever gives things away to get people in the door.

>the city of these 20 year old british bettors who've never worked professionally
>>
>>64443388
>pre-staking any NBA game
For what purpose?
>>
>>64443388
D O N T C A R E
O
N
T
C
A
R
E
>>
>>64443357

ON
N
>>
>>64443357
On HUGE.
>>
>>64443388
True but im busy. If gs never has a ten point lead you wont get it in play. It would be wise to wait though. If gs go up more than 10 buy buy buy cavs handis imo. The refs will be on the cavs side so it wont get ugly.
>>
autistic national anthem before every americuck sports event is probably worse than any /bet/ gimmick
>>
What are the ufc bets lads?
>>
Also I got ML at 3.55 and +6.5 at 2

like i said for

F U N
U
N
>>
>>64443449
Not the fact that games never start on time?
>>
Feels like im the only one on GS handis
>>
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>>64443473
Nah I'm with you senpai, ready for the blowout to begin
>>
Who /Eloping/ here?
>>
what's the bet tomorrow?
>>
>>64443585
Leicester DC
>>
>>64443401
PMSL. I am aware of loss leading strategy. But in this case it would be utterly moronic. Degenerates are going to believe anyone who calls themselves an "expert"

It would be pointless and WILL lose them money in the LONG TERM

Unibet are not going to hire someone who is genuinely giving out value bets. As an American who doesn't even understand how to find +EV in sports I get that you don't understand.
>>
>>64443585
>>64443597

DC? Leicester SW tbph!
>>
Curry goals when
>>
>>64443585

Stoke / Leicester / Arsenal treble.
Sticking £100 on it.

28/1 Lads.
Thank you based aunts and uncle for extra christmas money
>>
>>64443617
DC is a SPECIAL and SW is medium/large
>>
>>64443585

Throwing £10 on Over 1.5 goals in every game in the Championship tomorrow.

Xmas hangover traditionally means goals galore in these fixtures.
>>
>>64443647
I've utterly spasticated +1
>>
>You will never be this DAC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-33700786
>29 July 2015

>A leading bookmaker is refusing to take bets on which artist will record the next James Bond theme song after one customer tried to place a £15,000 wager on Radiohead being selected.

>"Nobody risks £15,000 on a hunch," said a spokesman for William Hill, who make the band 6/4 favourites to get the gig.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-35178921
>Radiohead have released the song they recorded to be the theme for the latest James Bond movie Spectre.

>The band have revealed they were asked to write a signature tune for the movie, but it "didn't work out" and the song was not used.

>Sam Smith's Writing's On The Wall ended up as the movie's theme song instead.

I bet he fucking hates Radiohead now.
I know he didn't get that 15k down there but clearly whoever was trying to place that would've absolutely smashed it at every possible bookie.
>>
>>64443630

Imagine being a greasy little leftist. Putting all your christmas money on some premier league treble then losing it all within 24 hours of receiving.
>>
>>64443661

Was speaking to someone in the industry and he says these things are almost always lies or massively exaggerated with Hill being the worst.
>>
Who attends a sporting event on Christmas Day? Bizarre
>>
>>64443720
Industry insider is a good gimmick and I hope you keep it up.


How was everyone's Christmas? Did Santa get you what you wanted? How many mediums did you get in cash in cards?
>>
>>64443757

Not a gimmick you moron
>>
>this complete lack of value
>it will end up being a close game through every quarter

zzzzzzzzzzzz why did i even wake up for this
>>
>>64443757
Pretty comfy Christmas tbf Euan lid, new watch, new threads and a couple of hundred ££. Few drinks, quality dinner and a day with the famm. Comfy. how was yours la?
>>
So /bet/ how has your Christmas Day been?
>>
Imagine stopping a live sports event in front of tens of thousands of live fans to show ads on the TV broadcast. Imagine doing that and then sending twerking plastic sluts on the field. ONTO THE PLAYING FIELD to distract the fans. Imagine that.
>>
>>64443770
>the play in one quarter of basketball is indicative of how the rest of the game will play.
'No'
>>
>>64443812

Totally should've read the thread before posting this lol
>>
Imagine taking the Cavaliers.
>>
>Still getting money from parents/relatives
>Still being a pathetic little student leach with a four figure bank roll.
>>
>>64443872
>having more than a one figure roll
Sure is bougie in here
>>
>>64443872
This
>>
>>64443872

zzzzzz, it's Christmas m8
>>
>>64443938

Would love to go Lenny Mclean on you and test your chin
>>
>>64443872
Aww bless, did you only get a book from the bargain bin for Christmas. Mum and Dad still don't love you because you're an odd little autist. Tears mate.
>>
>>64443955

Do you know even know who I am m8?
>>
>>64443973

Got a hoverboard m8
>>
>>64443872
Feels bad man. Least I got some good head last night. :(
>>
>>64443974
big boy?
>>
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STEPH CURRY DED

AMERIBETS ON SUICIDE WATCH
>>
LARGE ON THAT CAVS ML
>>
>>64444107
>on Curry o30points
>>
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>>64444148
>>
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>>64444107
He had gs?
>Curry ded
AHAHAHAHAHAHAH
>>
Leicester +1 HC @1.83 is the bet then, desu i dont even see Liverpool scoring... +0.5 may be an alt special bet !
>>
>>64444148
Steph's coming back mate
>>
>>64444128
Jk
>>
>>64444107
'No'
>>
>Lump on Cavs
>Curry jogging out of the locker room

DAC
>>
>>64444185
>jog
That man was sprinting lad. Luckily only got on+ 2.5, so it has a chance
>>
sending delly back in to finish the job
>>
>>64444256
+2.5 fh i
>>
>>64444107
>>64444177

>Steph

Didn't know girls could play in the NBA?
>>
>domino pizza giveaway
>America
>>
>>64444311
>shit-talking the GOAT
>>
Based refs
>>
>>64444350
>Guy from across the court calls a foul on a clean strip
Hmmmmmmm
>>
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>>64443606
>PMSL. I am aware of loss leading strategy. But in this case it would be utterly moronic. Degenerates are going to believe anyone who calls themselves an "expert"
>It would be pointless and WILL lose them money in the LONG TERM
>Unibet are not going to hire someone who is genuinely giving out value bets. As an American who doesn't even understand how to find +EV in sports I get that you don't understand.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHSHSHSHSHAHAHAHA

Name the formula for calculating EV, right now. Oh wait, you cant?

>I understand loss leading strategy
>but in this case it would be utterly moronic
I know you're having fun googling terms but holy shit you're retarded

>the city of British arrogance
>>
>>64444293
awwwwwww
>>
>>64444293
rekt
>>
>>64434647
>being on 4chan
>standards
kill urself
>>
>>64444469
>>64444459
At least it had a chance. I almost went large on Cavs ml too.
>>
>>64443606
>my only job is stacking shelves
>I'm a student with a 4 figure roll
>I've taken 6 business courses at uni so I'm an expert
wait until you have a career lid
>>
>>64444423
>Name the formula for calculating EV, right now. Oh wait, you cant?

About the 6th time posting this. Tez gimmick. Drop it.
>>
>>64444549
I think it's hilarious that brits throw around >muh EV and they LITERALLY can't even be bothered to know how it's calculated.
>>
>>64444319

I wasn't shit talking, Steph is genuinely a girls name here
>>
>>64444549
>>64444570
I will never ever post it again if you can honestly tell me how it's calculated. There's literally 4 variables, it's high school level baby math. Aren't you supposed to be a STEM major?
>>
>>64444593
I know it is, but it's short for Stephen if that helps

it's just that it's said Steph-en because black parents
>>
>>64444593
His full name is Stephen if that makes u feel better.
>>
>>64444549
What you get for Christmas, lad?
>>
>>64444593
steph is a girls name here too when it's short for Stephanie. His steph is short for stephen
>>
>>64444570
>>64444601

If your calculated % chance of something winning is greater than the bookies' implied % chance of it winning, it is +EV. Else, it is -EV.

I have no idea why you would want to quantify it mathematically, unless you were using a muh system/algo which no one here does. If you did, it would be something like:

(reward) - (risk)
= (probability of winning * potential profit) - (probability of losing * potential loss)

Rather tedious and autistic desu.

>>64444659
Jacket, some clothes, cash. Nothing big or flashy - no need.
>>
>>64444570

>implying we use quantitative information to calculate EV when the bookies have the exact same information to price stuff on
>implying your shitty 4 variable formula is anything near the level of algorithm required to beat the bookies unlike someone with a proper algorithm like Tony Bloom or Will Wilde
>implying you can't get more of an edge with qualitative information that the bookies won't know on obscure markets

Begone child.
>>
>>64444686
>not building your own model and charting your values against real life data to find the stress spots in bookies' in-play algorithms
>>
>>64444613
>>64444617
>>64444671

I am aware his name is Stephen. Steve is for guys, Steph is for girls
>>
>>64444686
>hes not actively working on a complex mathematical model to generate a 60% success rate

eye water
>>
>wake up to find based Afghanistan dismantled Zimbabwe

TYBA
>>
>>64444686
>>64444702
Fair enough. Now for the next step kiddos:

Where is the best value on an in play formula?

Do you even attempt to find the weaknesses in algorithms or do you just >muh bus fire then claim you're shrewd?
>>
>>64444712
Steven and Stephen are both male here
>>
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>Crowd chants DE-FENSE
>opposing team scores
>crowd goes silent

every time
>>
Anyone want to buy a £25 Amazon gift card for £24.99?
Value t bh
>>
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>>64444686
>Rather tedious and autistic desu.
not using even basic math to assist you in beating lines completely set by math
>literally calling it "tedious"
>using a basic tool
>tedious
I can't fucking breathe
>>
>>64444711
>>64444738
I would love to but I just dont have enough time or autism (despite posting on 4chan on the 25th of December). Good luck.

>>64444770
>Where is the best value on an in play formula?
I dont know what you mean but if you think the right answer is basketball I will buy a plane ticket tomorrow and come over and personally test your chin.

You *could* spend hundreds of man hours trying to create and perfect a "system" to run at a 5% ROI and have a huge turnover and make millions - but you probably cant beat the bookies AND the established syndicates
OR you could spend a few hours a day researching and forming your own opinions on game the bookies arent as sharp.

>>64444822
Alright lad. Can you just fill out the values on the above formula for Spurs v Rockets? THAT is the tedious bit. Feel free to do this for 1000 games and return a profit. If you do, you can have £15k from me.
>>
>>64444822
It is almost impossible to build a model that beats lines offered by the bookmaker

It is easy to use qualitative analysis to profit on obscure misprices.

I don't know how Vegas has conned Americans into thinking using some easily available statistics and pumping them into a crudely created algorithm is how to profit. Maybe it's because they are all so thick.
>>
>>64444790

'Kin hell I know but they are both pronounced the same. Just like when its shortened its pronounced the same to Steve not Steph which is pronounced as Stef. Stef is how you pronounce the shortened version of Stephanie
>>
>>64444869
It helps that I'm doing the core bit of it for my dissertation 2bh

they didn't let me do the bookie-bashing part for obvious reasons (and I wouldn't have the time either), but it's a nice little side project I can work on for fun for however long I end up unemployed for post-graduation
>>
>>64444869
>being this serious on christmas

fucking hell euan
>>
>Scott Foster single handedly keeping the Cavs in this
>>
Need to like air.
>>
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>It's an "Americans argue with Brits thread"


>>64444904
Nice one. What is your dissertation on exactly? And what degree?
>>
>>64444933
lebron a shit

A SHIT
>>
>>64444770

LITERALLY no one here thought a bus fire was something that should've been factored. We routinely slag off Mackers and his reasoning for his Bolivian bets. I repeat, we DO NOT agree with them
>>
>>64444869
>You *could* spend hundreds of man hours trying to create and perfect a "system" to run at a 5% ROI and have a huge turnover and make millions - but you probably cant beat the bookies AND the established syndicates
>OR you could spend a few hours a day researching and forming your own opinions on game the bookies arent as sharp.


>>64444877
>It is almost impossible to build a model that beats lines offered by the bookmaker
>It is easy to use qualitative analysis to profit on obscure misprices.
>I don't know how Vegas has conned Americans into thinking using some easily available statistics and pumping them into a crudely created algorithm is how to profit. Maybe it's because they are all so thick.
So we basically agree then? You know you dont have to be such fucking assholes about betting in general, right?
>>
>all these bricks
imagine not obliterating unders at the start of the game
>>
>>64444970
Agree on what? Anon's final point? Yes we do.
>>
>>64444877
>I don't know how Vegas has conned Americans into thinking using some easily available statistics and pumping them into a crudely created algorithm is how to profit. Maybe it's because they are all so thick.
Vegas relies on Americans thinking they know their sport better than they do moreso than that. Plus, they don't carry obscure leagues
>>
Any bets for the rest of the nba tonight?
>>
>>64445029
spurs spread

kobr o19.5 points

griffin o23.5
>>
>>64445011
>Agree on what? Anon's final point? Yes we do

1)you don't have to beat vegas, you have to beat the throngs of american retards that push lines 1 step too far in the wrong direction for there to be value

2) Do you really have to be such a relentless prick to anyone not you? It's christmas ffs. I shudder to think of your personal life. There's a reason you spend 80% of your time playing yourself up as a betting god to other anons
>>
>>64444970

He was blatantly not agreeing with you and I'm pretty sure I've seen you bring up this stupid debate just as many times and just as obnoxiously as angry Brit anon. We Brits have solid proof our way of establishing EV is successful and I've yet to see any proof that doing it another way is better. Almost as embarrassing as the angry Ameri-anon who tried to use a Betfair graph to prove there was value in mainstream
>>
>>64444945
I do IT, so I get to build the software myself too. I'm compiling data relating to serve power and reaction capability, as well as close-out rates and consistent losses of leads because I think that raw power and mental strength are key enough parts that they need special attention for something like this.

I'll then plug it all into an ELO-based simulator (well, at least it's being marked as a simulator - I'm using it for something else) that I'll compare to a ~200 game sample size to see how close I am on metrics such as average game length, winning margins etc.

After my degree is done, I then want to be able to manually input specific outcomes and have it spit out win percentages at any point I want for a host of commonly available markets and see if I can find mismatches with any of the high street algorithms... I probably won't find anything that beats the overround because they're getting quite good of late, but knowing which spots and scores are likely to be overpriced is a good complement for the eye test
>>
>on GS -7

want out desu
>>
>>64445106
They've got them right where they want them senpai
>>
>>64445106
Could easily still happen
It wont though imo
>>
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>>64445080
>He was blatantly not agreeing with you
Don't you mean flagrantly?

>I've seen you bring up this stupid debate just as many times and just as obnoxiously as angry Brit anon.
I never bring it up, sorry if I refuse to let our angry british overlords shit on me for something I do

Doesn't it ever get tiring acting like an asshole to people just because they don't have access to bubble gum bookies and twitter bets?
>>
>>64445125
Is the stardust still up or have they blew it up
>>
>bubble gum

EXPOSED. You are the angry clueless American anon who shits up the thread. Please trip up so you can be filtered
>>
>>64445162
It's been gone for almost a decade now
>>
>>64445153
see>>64445224
>>
>>64445239
Damn, that sportbook was based. I still remember buying weed from a mexican at that gas station behind stratosphere. Good times.
>>
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Toast in new bread

>>64445304
>>64445304
>>64445304

Toast in new bread
>>
>>64445074
Your judgement isnt good enough to know when a line is one point out. You need a system for that.
My personal life is hellish. I'm sitting here watching a film. I'm only up tens of thousands from gambling. zzzzz

>>64445085
Interesting that you are doing it from an IT side rather than maths side.
I would recommend ignoring football and basketball and tennis. These sports all have their algos designed specifically. Other sports like handball and badminton and field hockey, volleyball, etc all have algos based on something else and modified so there are bound to be weaknesses there if you can have enough data.
>>
crying here /bet/. I thought they would have a high paced, high scoring game like the Cucks game.
>>
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>>64447620

forgot pic
>>
any got anything on lakers/clippers?
>>
>>64448893
no
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