Ok fellas, I need help. I'm currently breeding for a shiny Froakie. I've got a Japanese Ditto and Australian Greninja in the daycare, and I have the shiny charm. My odds should be 1/512 or whatever, but I've hatched over 1300 eggs. Am I doing something wrong, or am I just shit out of luck?
Help me please, you're my only hope
You only have bad luck.
>being a shinycuck
lmao kill yourself
>>26599387
Shin locked since he went to uber
>>26599387
The thing you're doing wrong is not understanding probability.
If the odds are 1 in 512, it doesn't mean that you will definitely get it within 512 eggs. Each egg is a single event, separate from all the others, which itself has a 1 in 512 chance of being shiny.
>>26599471
shiny
>>26599387
And the other problem many people have is they don´t understand the masuda method right.
Is your game japanese or australien?
If so, you are doing it right and you have had just bad luck, but if not, you just need one foreign pokémon, not two.
>>26599478
Yeah, but by my calcs the odds of not getting a shiny out of 1300 1-in-512 attempts is 8%, so he's gotten kinda unlucky there.
>>26599387
Are you from austrailia? One pokemon need to be from your country much easier to just use a pokemon from your game
You know, after more than 5000 eggs, I only got 6 shinies Mon...
>>26599470
>judging people for playing a ROLEPLAYING game differently than you do
lmao go back to being 12
>>26600439
How did you get this?
I'm fairly certain his odds of not getting a shiny after any number of tries is 511/512.
>>26602851
Statistics don't always make sense on the surface, but once you get into the mindset you'll see:
You're right that his odds of NOT getting a shiny is 511 in 512. To find the probability of a certain probability "sequence" occuring, you multiply the probability (1.0 for 100% to 0.0 for 0%) as many times as that event occurs.
In this case, the 511/512 event has occured 1300 times, so you take 511 and divide it by 512 (or 1 - (1/512) if you prefer to do it that way).
That gives a probability of 0.998046875.
Put that to the power of 1300 and you get a probability of 0.0787, which is approximately 7.8%.
For a practical example, consider that you're battling, your Noivern against a Metagross.
You know Flamethrower won't kill it in one shot, and Metagross will kill your Noivern unless Flamethrower burns the Metagross (10% chance).
Your other option is to use Hurricane, and hope you get Confusion on the Metagross, and then that it hits itself in confusion. Then Flamethrower finishes off the Metagross next turn.
First take the probability of hitting Hurricane, 0.7, multiply it by the probability of Confusion proccing, 0.3, and then multiply by the probability the Metagross will hit itself, 0.5.
The probability of all three events occuring are 0.105, so you with 10.5% you have a SLIGHTLY higher chance of winning if you use Hurricane.
Thus, you should Hurricane the Metagross.
>mfw I have a legit shiny Greninja with 5 perfect IVs
>>26599387
kek I got a shiny hawlucha with perfect IV's nearly halfway through a box
Git gud
>>26603152
Suddenly, I want to ride a roller coaster. I wonder why?
>>26599387
Ok fellas, I need help. I'm currently injecting for a shiny Froakie. I've got a homebrew 3DS and pkhex on the computer, and I do not have the shiny charm. My odds should be 1/1 or whatever, but I've hatched over 0 eggs. Am I doing something wrong, or am I just shit out of luck?
Help me please, you're my only hope
>>26602851
>what is probability in a sequence of events
If you flip a coin twice, the odds of all the possible outcomes aren't 50/50
>>26605713
That could've been funny if you had tried just a little harder
