why didn't Rickon just predict Ramsay's arrow shots using a Poisson distribution?
I think a Gaussian distribution would be more helpful
SERPENTINE
>>71156483
You are implying that this is a game of chance. It's not. Ramsay was intentionally missing all his shots (you can tell by how he's not even looking when he shoots), until Rickon came very close to Jon. Then ramsay got serious and shot a very precise arrow at rickon. It has nothing to do with chance.
>>71156483
throwing fish around is hardly going to help. he could maybe have protected his back with a manta ray though.
>>71156483
>run for the burning flayed men shit and use them as cover
rickon wanted to die because shaggydoge was kill
PLOT DEVICE ARROWS NEVER MISS SILLY
>>71156483
Knowing that his brother was coming to pick him up and the fact that horses are many times faster than him, he should have focused 100% on avoidance. It's very hard to hit a target that moves erratically, and even harder to hit one that can hit the deck when they see you firing. I used to be a semi-professional dodge ball player, I know a thing or two about dodging. Sure arrows are faster and harder to see, but Ramsay is hella far away.
>>71156827
what the fuck kind of name is shaggydog? rickon deserved to die
Did Rickon have a tinky winky or did Ramsay take that off?
Even in his death episode he had to display superhuman ability. Fuck Ramsay and fuck these shit writers.
>>71156901
rickon's like 4 in the books
>play the brother of a family where the rest of your siblings are major characters
>get barely any lines
>disappear from the show for a while
>finally come back
>get killed without a line of dialogue
>>71157006
he still gets more pussy than you
>>71156998
Why is everyone so young in the books? Rob and Jon especially seem unrealistically young for what they accomplish.
>>71157059
gurm originally planned to have a time skip between books 3 and 4 but he realized the story didn't flow well with it and discarded it, but as a result everyone is too young and he said that in retrospect he should have made them all older from the get go
>>71157052
So does the alcoholic loser who lives two apartments down. Your point?
>>71157059
>unrealistically young for what they accomplish
we live in a world where men the age Jon is at the start of the books were killing other men a scant few centuries ago
just because you grew up in a coddled world where people can't drink fermented grapes until they've seen over two decades pass doesn't mean it's always been this way
why didn't Ramsay at least try to fight him?
>>71157124
Becoming an amazing warrior and leader of men before your 16th birthday is a little much regardless of the universe.
>>71157059
if you knew anything about anything. even in the real world during the olden days, if you were 15 you would already have your own farm and a family.
>>71157206
Jon is for some reason a god-tier duelist. He has so much plot armour and skill he could probably take on The Hound and destroy him. >>71157206
why didn't he just not run in a straight line?
>>71157254
>if you were 15 you would already have your own farm and a family
If you're a woman. As a man you're just now getting that.
>>71157271
Because Rickon is a sheltered child and clearly has never been in a situation even remotely like that. Why is that so hard to grasp?
>>71157271
He's like 8 years old and scared.
>>71157124
In Germany you can generally have a celebratory drink (like on a birthday, new years, etc.) at 14 as long as your parents are there and you don't get drunk.
But I can't see myself as a killer at 14. It's not even because I'm coddled or whatever. But you're not fully grown yet, and you haven't had the chance to develop as much muscle mass yet. And you lack experience.
A 30 year old would fugging destroy a 14 year old.
But in the show Jon regularly rekts people more experienced than him. He even held his ground against the fooking legend of gin alley, Karl tanner.
>>71156483
I would like to see his reaction if Rickon actually survived
His own army would probably fucking laugh at him
>>71157347
>>71157427
he's a stark and probably knows how arrows work and if you dodge them they dont hit you
>>71157460
Teenagers do have crazy endurance though. Also a shit load of time passes in the books.
>>71157491
>he's a stark
Considering how dumb his siblings tend to be, that's a detriment.
>>71156895
>I used to be a semi-professional dodge ball player
>>71156483
Not sure what you mean by this. Generally you use a Poisson distribution to determine the probability of a given number of equally probable events occurring (ex: if you flip a coin that has a probability p of landing heads N times, what is the probability that it will land heads k times where 0<=k<=N?). In this case Bran is running away from Ramsay. While Ramsay may be a skilled archer, it is safe to assume that the probability of him hitting Rickon will decrease as the distance between the two increases. Thus a poisson distribution isn't very useful as the probability of a hit decreases with each arrow fired. Rickon could have used the knowledge that Ramsay's accuracy would diminish with the number of shots fired and used that to his advantage by expending most of his energy sprinting until he was a far enough distance away that he could slow down, since at that point he could afford to let Ramsay get more shots in as each would have a low probability of hitting. This of course assumes that Ramsay's accuracy decreases nonlinearly with increased distance.
Or he could have just waited until he heard each arrow fired and sprinted in a random direction for a few seconds.
Ramsey would have hit him him anyway if he ran like a snake, he was Robin Hood tier with a bow
>>71158035
I got paid for a season, so yeah.
>>71156483
Let's assume Rickon can only run in a straight line and that he runs at a constant rate v. We can define:
x(t) = v*t
where x(t) is the distance between Rickon and Ramsay and t is the time since Rickon started running.
Now let's assume Ramsay fires at a constant rate such that he fires an arrow every T seconds. This means that when he fires his Ath arrow, Rickon is
x(A) = v*T*A
away from him.
Now let's assume Ramsay's accuracy diminishes linearly as Rickon gets further away. The probability that Ramsay will hit Rickon for any shot is:
P(hit) = 1 - x(A)/d
where d is the distance between Ramsay and Jon Snow.
For Ramsay to hit Rickon when he fires his Nth arrow, he will need to have missed him N-1 times. This makes the probability of hitting him on the Nth arrow:
P(hit on A = N) = P(miss on A=1)*P(miss on A = 2)*...P(miss on A = N-1)*P(hit on A=N)
Or:
P(hit on A = N) = (VT/d)^(N-1)*(N-1)!*(1-(VTN/d))
>Not running backwards in a serpentine fashion
It's like he never played defensive back or anything.
>>71157271
Ramsay was missing him purpose before. From Rickon's perspective, he had no reason to change his strategy, he probably believed the way he was running was just fine.
It fucking amazes how people can't realize this
>>71159220
Shit, I forgot Jon Snow was riding toward Rickon. You'd need to take that into account too since, while Ramsay could still hit them while Jon carried him back, the rate at which Rickon is moving away would change at the point where Jon picks him up. Also Jon would likely try to shield Rickon with his body, so if a hit occurs after Jon picks up Rickon, Rickon's rate of movement would go back to his running speed.
>>71157124
>just because you grew up in a coddled world where people can't drink fermented grapes until they've seen over two decades pass doesn't mean it's always been this way
When you put it that way... our society really is such a fucking joke.
>>71159723
yeah I bet your fatass would be making a killing in a feudal society wouldn't it
>Implying Ramsey did not have a back up plan in place for a serpentine run
![Game.of.Thrones.S06E09.720p.WEBRip.AAC2.0.H.264.mkv_snapshot_00.53.45_[2016.06.23_03.23.22].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/CAg1Al7.jpg "Game.of.Thrones.S06E09.720p.WEBRip.AAC2.0.H.264.mkv_snapshot_00.53.45_[2016.06.23_03.23.22].jpg")
Why didn't each arrow Ramsay shot go deeper into the shield? he's firing at the same strength, but closer to the target each time.
Why didn't Ramsay escape to the Dreadfort?
Starks are related to the fist men, they are an archarchic human subspecies
>>71160002
He's close enough that the differences in distance don't make a huge impact on how much the arrows slow down relative to how fast they're going.
>>71160002
You could tell by Ramsays face on the third shot even he was surprised Jons plot armor was so strong it denied the laws of physics
>>71158035
IF YOU CAN DODGE A BALL YOU CAN DODGE AN ARROW
How do you guys think their fight wentoffscreen?
>>71157260
In the books it makes sense since Jon's been training all his life and regularly takes on 3+ opponents at the same time for training
In the show Jon has barely scraped through any 1v1s
>>71159220
>>71158257
came in here to give this a rigorous treatement but you beat me to it. Glad to see someone else who understands basic mathematics on /tv/
>>71157059
becuase grrum wanted to write about danys cunny
>>71157260
>Jon is for some reason a god-tier duelist
>for some reason
it's like you don't even watch the show
>>71162238
He's like 5'5
>>71162412
He's 5'8 lad, perfect height for agility, speed, and power while being relatively skinny
I'm 6'2 btw
>Kit Harrington and Emilia Clarke will be making half a million per episode in seasons 7 and 8
So Dany and Jon are officially the main characters now and no one else matters?
>>71162658
>still two more seasons of this shit
>>71162690
You should be saying "only two more? How the fuck are they going to wrap up this cluster fuck in 2 short seasons?"
>>71157254
That's actually not true at all
Males in the Roman World where under their fathers wing until they were in their 20's and during the Medieval period people didn't move much so families often lived with each other in the same farm for numerous generations
>>71162800
This. Grandparents would raise the kids more than the actual parents in many societies too. Also the father-in-law would fuck his son's wife while he was away on war.
>>71162867
>Also the father-in-law would fuck his son's wife while he was away on war.
just in your cuck manga
>>71156483
>distribution
>0 (2?) data points
?
>>71162944
And Russia. Google it.
>>71157260
He barely survives every time = maximum XP gain
He's fucking max level at this point AND has a legendary valyrian steel sword AND he had an enrage bonus after seeing rickon and wunwun die
He's literally that tauren warrior from that wow pvp video from 2005
>>71163057
>He barely survives every time = maximum XP gain
Didn't realize that Targaryans benefited from Zenkai Boosts
>>71162658
Well at least Jon will be a major player until the end and it doesn't become Cunt of Thrones: ft. Meme Dwarf
>>71157528
>if I stand and face Ramsay he will cower in fear and refuse to loose an arrow at me
![116165-Sophie-Turner-Gwendoline-Chris-LnKg[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/eUY1cHg.jpg "116165-Sophie-Turner-Gwendoline-Chris-LnKg[1].jpg")
>>71163385
>implying it isnt already cunt of thrones and the meme dwarves
>>71163822
Kit isn't a meme
>>71164107
His height is
>>71157271
You're a scared irrational kid, some maniac is shooting arrows at you from behind, your brother is riding as fast as he can towards you with a horse, and natural instinct says the quickest route between 2 points is straight. Ergo, you run a straight line towards that horse as fast as you can
>>71156483
Because Ramsey = Aim, see? He aimed, see?
>>71157124
>>71157226
>>71159723
>>71159808
>All the niggers thinking it's because it's realistic fantasy history factic knowledge and oppose the notion that there are, in fact, retardedly too young.
>Not addresing the shitty poor writing choices, that it's being proved and said by the fucking author of the book
>"Still, can happen!"
Only 62 great fans, and 20 good jonposters, it's all we got.
