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You are currently reading a thread in /sp/ - Sports
>shitty
>soccer power index projections
>Soccer Power Index
>>66840105
So basically place a $100 bet on city right?
>>66840151
Atletico, Bayern has no chances.
>Soccer Power Index Projections
>American arbirtary statistics
Was this index made by Standard and Lures?
>>66840151
yup
>Soccer Power Index Projections
Ameristats at it again
I mean what is this, Dragon Ball Z? Come on
>>66840105
>soccer power index projections
I wish stats virgins would all die
>>66840105
>american statistics
>soccer power index
Please stay away from football
>>66840105
>Soccer Power Index
What the fuck does that mean?
>Soccer Power Index
>>66840105
>Ameristats
>SOCCER POWER INDEX
WHAT THE FUCK AM I READING
>Soccer Power Index
>>66840105
are those stats made by the same american rating agencies that loved those subprime mortgages so much that ultimately led to the financial crisis of 2008?
>>66840105
How the fuck can you quantify with a % the chance of a team to win a match like that? Football doesn't work like that, way too many variables that you don't know before a game
>>66841809
the winning percentage they have in the semis plus finals. betting algorithms do this all the time and they're right more often than not
>>66840105
Who sponsors this stat index? I need to know who it's brought to me by
>>66841841
It should be 50%. Either you go through or you don't
![vRSfcJK[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/RPTbF3i.jpg "vRSfcJK[1].jpg")
>soccer power index
>>66841841
>betting algorithms
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAAH
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>>66841864
lel
>>66841846
Budlight™
>>66841864
Some retarded slag in my form at school fully believed this same logic for winning the lottery
>>66840105
>this flag
>this post
>this soccer power index projections
>>66840149
>>66840150
>>66840193
>>66840217
>>66840245
>>66840291
>>66841523
>>66841541
>>66841723
>>66841752
>>66841780
you all will complain about literally everything. you'd think it'd be obvious that it isn't to be taken seriously
>>66841888
Mate you see how many betting shops are open on high streets? You see how many ads they have on tv and the internet? How do you think they afford these things? They have world class statisticians working for them to ensure they get every edge they can
>>66841902
It's true though you fucking retard. That's why I always buy two tickets.
50% + 50% = 100%
I win every time. Enjoy being a poorfag while me and that girl enjoy our millions.
>>66841888
Are you retarded? The odds are pretty much exactly like the graphic posted
>>66841938
fug DD:
They're probably just getting these %s from the bookies predictions
>>66841916
>WORLD CLASS
>STATISTICIANS
AJHAAJAJAJAJAAJAJHAHAHAHAHA
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHA
OH GOD MY SIDES
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA
Any retard with a gambling license can make money you faggot. It doesn't take a genius.
All they do is change the odds based on who bets on what. The market decides itself and all you have to do is balance your books.
It's basic as fuck.
>ALGORITHMS
ahahAHAHAHAAHHAAHHAHAAH
Trust me, nobody who works for a betting company has a degree in anything.
>>66841938
No you dickhead if you have two tickets instead of one its 33%. If you buy two tickets either both win, none win, or one of them wins
>>66841953
Those are odds you retard. Not algorithms.
I could change all of those numbers if I, for example, put a £5billion bet on any one of those teams.
Nice """science""" you got there you mouth-breathing spastic.
>>66841977
i can't even begin to comprehend how retarded you are
you're like that karl pilkington guy who pretends to be retarded for money
>>66841912
>you'd think it'd be obvious that it isn't to be taken seriously
People do take this shit seriously though
why would anyone watch that kind of tv programation
>>66841912
Just read this thread and you'll find that people are actually this retarded.
See
>>66841916
>>66841953
Sure is a lot of bait in here
>there are people itt that think you can use maths to predict anything
lmao
I'm not sure why you're all making fun of the American.
Statistical models are proven to be reliable IN THE LONG RUN
For a single match, they're obviously not very predicative, but in the long-term they can make very good predictions.
They won't make you win every bet for every single match, but they can generate you profits all in all.
The problem of course is that betting companies use the same statistical algorithms and models and place the odds accordingly low, hence why you won't be making very big profits and why betting on sports is not really worth it at the end of the day.
>>66841953
>If City win 6% of the time, their decimal odds should be 8.5
wew
>Algorithms and statisticians
You'd think gambling has only been around for the past 20 years. It used to be an alcoholic in a cardigan with holes in writing up the odds on a chalk board, it's not fucking rocket science.
>>66842070
Except there's no science or predictive power to 11 men running about in a completely isolated and random event.
More chance of predicting the lottery. At least with the lottery you know some of the variables (how many numbers you can pick from, how many numbers you are allowed to pick in total).
OP is retarded and Americans are retarded.
>>66840149
>>66840150
>>66840193
>>66840217
>>66840232
>>66840245
>>66840291
>>66841523
>>66841541
>>66841723
>>66841752
>>66841780
>>66841796
>>66841809
>>66841846
>>66841876
>>66841888
>>66841963
>>66842054
>GET THINKING OUT OF MUH KICKBALL.
>JUST TURN YOUR BRAIN OFF BRO
>FUCKING AMERICANS, THINK THEY KNOW EVERYTHING WITH THEIR "MATH"
>>66842137
maths aren't even real. educate yourself
>>66842118
It's all based on historical data.
Again, there are always variables that you cannot predict, which is why no model will be able to make you win every single match or even predict a champion for every year.
But in the long run, a good model will get more things right than not (meaning well over 50%, which would mean total contingency)
ITT: /bet/ getting BTFO
>>66841876
Wew lad
>>66842118
no but you can look at season numbers like avg shots on target, shots against, injuries, previous meetings, possession numbers etc, referee tendencies, weather on the day to make a guess. obviously its not perfect but its right more than its wrong
>>66840105
>these soccer power index projections were brought to you by Tub O' Lard® brand mayonnaise. When you just gotta pork out, go Tub O' Lard™
>>66842137
Kill yourself you virgin, retards like you don't understand the sport and try to turn it into boring shit like this.
>>66842118
>he thinks humans are individuals
>he thinks humans aren't a collective that can be analysed and influenced
top kek
>>66842245
>>66842201
That's about as useful as looking at past lottery draws and saying the number 7 has come out X times more than the number 16 therefore it is more or less likely to come out this time.
i.e. not useful at all
>>66842245
>its right more than its wrong
Not trolling, but how can you say this?
>>66842118
How do you explain the success of moneyball and analytics in football?
>>66840105
>>soccer power index projections
>>66842382
but sports aren't like that. teams have tendencies they develop and the players are mostly the same throughout the season
>Soccer Power Index explained
> It is based on goals scored and allowed, not wins, losses and draws.
ITT: people who know nothing about mathematics
>>66842466
>Americans
>>66842466
TSUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU
>>66842466
Which is highly predictive of winning.
You guys just permanently forfeited the >American educashun meme in this thread
>>66842382
just what
so you think that every football team is equally good at football?
>>66842118
but its not random? The history of every club, every player, and ever manager can be analyzed. I'm 90% this post is bait but come on
>>66842427
It's not successful at all. It's stupidity that is marketed well and sold on to even stupider people.
Explain the success of 'Meet The Kardashians'
Explain the success of Kanye West
Explain the success of Jersey Shore
Explain the success of X Factor and American Idol
People are retards. It's not complicated.
>>66842486
maths don't apply well to football because it's a low scoring game
goals can be very episodic and it's very difficult to standardize the sport
that's why stats don't apply well to football
>>66842519
t. edgy 15 year old
>It's not successful at all
Oh so its just happenstance that 90% of the time the richest teams with the most resources dominate?
>>66840105
>obese americans """"""""""soccer"""""""" power index
>>66842427
>The success of analytics in football
which is not a thing
moneyball is just splashing money on the best talents and doesn't always work either
>>66842567
seems to work more often than any other strategy
>>66840105
>soccer power index projections
>ITT: gender studies students
Let me guess, math and statistics are social constructs made up by the patriarchy, amiright?
>>66842548
what the fuck does moneyball have to do with maths, i think missed a step there
>>66842588
>math and statistics are social constructs
how are they not?
>>66842519
Plenty of teams built around money ball have been able to push well above their weight in the sport. Analytics isn't everything but it can help you build a competitive team
>>66842548
>>66842567
>>66842589
I'm not talking about oil money clubs.
>>66842605
what do you mean by "moneyball"? you lost me desu
>The algorithm uses several years of data, taking into account goals scored and allowed, quality of the lineup fielded, and the location of the match. In addition, SPI weights recent matches more heavily, and also takes into account the importance of the match,
I am trying to find more about this SPI but basically it seems to give only an offensive rate and a defensive rate. Like, for nts it look like this
>rank name off.rat def rat rating
>1 Argentina 2.38 0.35 87.9
Now I'll read this http://espn.go.com/soccer/worldcup/news/_/id/4447078/GuideToSPI but I am not looking forward to it.
>>66842588
Statistics are, mostly because they disagree with my liberal assumptions about equality.
>>66842617
isnt it that film with Brad Pit where they make a team using statistics?
>>66842599
Well, mathematics is a tool for exploring many things, mostly used in natural science, but social sciences also I guess, so fair enough.
>>66842630
>mathematics is a tool for exploring many things
or rather a tool to describe many things, which itself doesn't exist in the material enviroment
>Hey did you see the game yesterday, Messi had an adjusted 37.7% shooting average in even strength situations in the attacking third and 89.0% ball control when under pressure by 2 or fewer defenders
>I love talking about soccer, I think Bayern have a 43% chance of winning the CL so I'll be supporting them now
>north americans
>>66842617
This is what I meant. >>66842629
Look at AZ Alkmaar in Holland or Brentford. Its not a perfect way to build a team, but it definitely helps smaller (or broke) clubs compete with money teams.
>>66842658
>le mathematics is the purest field
Fuck off faggot. It's practically useless. For everything else there's already a designated field. Physics is not Mathematics. Psychology is not Mathematics.
Mathematics majors are poorfag teachers at best and that's only the ones that aren't completely socially inept.
>>66842688
Statistics can help you chose a good and/or fitting player for your team, but to predict a match they are not accurate, Expecially footbal because it's very situational and low scoring.
Anyway most of the reaction were because of the need of Americans to do power rankings and powerlevel for everything, instead of just saying Bayern are favourites and City outsiders
>>66842536
false
you can quantify pretty much everything that happens during a match although things are often skewed for offensive players. opta and prozone track every game now and it lets owners/managers make better value decisions
>>66842688
>>66842629
ah i see, never heard of it, my bad
anyway yeah, it's a good tool to avoid wasting money and finding good players that don't get the exposure they deserve, but to predict the outcome of a single game(or a double tie likewise) is not reliable enough
also this documentary may be interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6UcNGzE8sU
>
The retards thinking you can predict games with algorithms and put a % chance on them are fucking mongo-spastics.
BUT
Stats are not completely useless and obviously they have their place in sport. It'd be unwise not to use all the data at your disposal to your advantage.
OP is dumb though, I hope for his sake it was bait.
what's the difference between the "moneyball" approach and just using statistics to evaluate player/team performances? because i'm pretty sure the latter was done long before 2002
>>66842731
>>66842744
Oh word, yeah I agree with that, the sport is too random to use statistics to predict games.
>>66842734
my point was that a single game is more likely to have an unexpected result since a single goal (which is actually most times caused by a mistake) is all it takes to win it
>Soccer Power Index Projections
>>66842779
very very good post
>>66842827
Based Vietnam-kun
>>66842621
Ok, I read it. Some parts are solid and downright clever, others are a bit iffy but make sense, some parts don't make sense to me and others are idiotic and I can't believe they thought it was a good idea (especially the club part)*. No really, just read the part about clubs.
All in all, I am sure it is a valid tool and that I would get btfo by the people who worked on it, but I would never take it seriously.
But this destroyed my sides
>Tanzania <> Derby County
*To make an example
>Second, there is no "competitiveness coefficient" -- all games are assumed to be equally important, with the exception that matches in the UEFA Champions' League
>>66842744
Decent video. Full time plumbers are the gift that keeps on giving.
ITT: Cucked by a ruse
Ameristats
