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Anonymous
4chan Risk Strategy
2016-06-30 19:20:05 Post No. 8174508
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4chan Risk Strategy
Anonymous
2016-06-30 19:20:05
Post No. 8174508
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Okay, /sci/, I'm trying to come up with a strategy for the classic game of 4chan Risk that's based on what would statistically be the smartest things to do.
The map of this game is pic related, and it's essentially a county map of the lower 48. As you can see, some states have bonuses. Using the number of counties each of those states has, I've determined that California has the highest bonus return of all the bonus states, offering 0.103 bonus territories per territory (the 2nd highest bonus return is Maine, at 0.0625, and the lowest is New York, at 0.0161). Furthermore, the bonus states seem to be located in close pairs (CA-WA, TX-NE, FL-TN) with the exception of the ME-NY-MI trio.
To calculate what your expected territories per turn would be, I assumed that the last numbers in a post number can be treated as being random. I know they aren't actually random, but in a fast-paced board they appear in a random-like manner. This is where I want help just to make sure I'm doing things right. For the chances of getting 4 territories in a turn (post number ends in 1 or 2 but isn't trips), would I just take 1/5 - 1/1000? Assuming that's correct, and applying that method to the rest of the territorial gains, then the chances of getting 4, 6, 10, or 14 territories on a turn are 199/1000 each, and the chances of getting 18 and 20 territories are 89/1000 and 98/1000, respectively. Thus, your expected territories per turn, statistically, should be 11.158, or about 11. I'll show my methodology in my next post.
Essentially I want to know whether my math is fucking retarded or if I'm right, and then what we can do to create a strategy from there on.
