Reverse Monty Hall Problem

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Anonymous
Reverse Monty Hall Problem 2016-06-11 22:29:56 Post No. 8137518
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Reverse Monty Hall Problem Anonymous 2016-06-11 22:29:56 Post No. 8137518 [Report]

So in the original Monty Hall problem there are two losing doors and one winning door. If you switch after the losing door is removed you have a 2/3 chance of winning and if you don't you only have a 1/3 chance.

What if there are two winning doors, one losing door, and the host always removes a winning door after your selection? You have a choice to change your selection after a winning door is revealed. Do you switch?

At first glance it would seem like you shouldn't. You have a 2/3 chance of picking the winning door initially, and after a winning door is revealed you have a 1/2 chance of winning by switching. However the host is resetting the problem, decreasing your odds of winning if you switch. Wouldn't you always have a 1/2 chance of winning if you stayed or if you switched?

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Anonymous 2016-06-11 22:37:13 Post No.8137543
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Anonymous 2016-06-11 22:37:13 Post No.8137543 [Report]

>>8137518
>You have a 2/3 chance of picking the winning door initially, and after a winning door is revealed you have a 1/2 chance of winning by switching.
No. If you chose a winning door and switch, you lose. If you chose the losing door and switch, you win. Thus you have a 2/3 chance of losing if you switch.

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:20:54 Post No.8137811
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:20:54 Post No.8137811 [Report]

>>8137543
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:25:47 Post No.8137821
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:25:47 Post No.8137821 [Report]

>>8137518
Yes because it improves my chances of taking 5 niggas with me

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:30:22 Post No.8137825
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:30:22 Post No.8137825 [Report]

>>8137518
No, holy shit. It's exactly the same as the regular one but with the results reversed.

Imagine the same thing with 100 doors. You choose one, then the host opens 98 other winning doors and leaves one. Do you still think it's a 50/50 chance?

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:34:08 Post No.8137830
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 02:34:08 Post No.8137830 [Report]

>>8137811
Why are you linking him to the Wikipedia page? He's right.
Also, this question belongs in /sqt/.

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 09:17:39 Post No.8138263
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 09:17:39 Post No.8138263 [Report]

>>8137518

This is literally the same as the original Monty Hall problem, except you consider a goat a win.

Pick door, stay there, to maximize chance of goat.

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:39:38 Post No.8138854
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:39:38 Post No.8138854 [Report]

what's the name of those comics?

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:43:40 Post No.8138858
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:43:40 Post No.8138858 [Report]

>>8138854
Saturday Morning Breakfast Cartoons (SMBC)

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:44:07 Post No.8138860
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 19:44:07 Post No.8138860 [Report]

>>8138858
thanks!

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Anonymous 2016-06-12 20:23:57 Post No.8138913
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Anonymous 2016-06-12 20:23:57 Post No.8138913 [Report]

>>8137518
What if it's revealed that the one you choose is the one with 5 people in? Should you switch?