Hey /sci/, I think this might be up your alley.
I'm not sure if we're just stupid, but we can't seem to determine if it's 2/3 or 1/2. We can all agree it's not Monty Hall.
So, in this situation, you're assured that you chose a meat bun. This removes the double natto box. This turns it into two situations: you chose the meat bun and your other choice is a natto ball, or you picked a meat bun and your next choice is the other meat bun: therefore, 1/2.
Or, do you double count the situation of choosing from the double meat box, as choosing Bun1 and then Bun2 produces the same outcome as Bun2 then Bun1, but counts as a separate choice, and, therefore, you've three situations but two result in a meat bun, therefore, 2/3.
We've arguments for both sides, but no one can apparently be proven true. Someone tried Haye's Theorem doubts that he used the right numbers, or maybe he could have used the right numbers.
I figured you guys might be able to math this better than people who hate talking about video games.
Not this shit again, it's 2/3
>>8014370
Can you give me an explanation?
Is it because of the method I described, or is it some other reason?
I'd like to be able to give an explanation the next time this comes up.
>>8014367
>2/3
The results don't change if you remove the 2-natto box from the experiment entirely. The key is to locate the hidden aspect of Chen not knowing which box she drew the meat buns from.
Also tell /v/ I said hi.
>>8014367
let [x,x] represent a box where x=m(meat), n(natto), -(empty space).
The sample space for the second bun looks like:
{[-,m] , [m, - ], [-, n]}
equal probabilities => 2/3
It's 1/3, go away
>>8014382
Why do you say that?
>>8014376
Yes, the probability of picking a golden ball first is twice as likely if you randomly picked box Gold Gold, in which case the next ball will be Gold => 2/3
>>8014400
>0.6666588
That's not 2/3
B T F O
T
F
O
2/3 fags on suicide watch
>>8014400
So it's like the results of my attempt at a tree diagram?
>>8014404
Yes
>>8014398
She chooses the box and isn't allowed to pick another one or switch. It's like the Monty Hall problem but being forced to stay with Door 1.
>>8014416
Alright, cool.
Math is fun when I want to do it.
>>8014404
Yes.
>>8014404
Yes
>>8014404
Yes
>>8014367
2/3
>>8014367
3 possible ways to pick a meat bun on first draw. Two of those ways would give you a meat bun if you picked from th same box again. 2/3 chansu here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
>>8014367
Its self-evidently 1/2
66%
>>8015357
1/3rd since its box chosen
Two of the three possible meatbuns have another meatbun in the same box. It's really that simple, don't bother using obscure theorems or software to figure this out.
>>8016546
>not using Bayesian epistemology
Well!
>>8016551
Selecting a box and then a bun is the same thing as just selecting a bun. Each bun still has 1/6 to be chosen, and each meatbun (now that we know which kind of bun we got) has 1/3.
I have 30 days till my A-Level maths exam,
Is is possible to learn all of the topics C1, C2 and S1 by then?
Because im a spastic and my teacher sucks is the reason why
>>8016691
Yep, just start on past papers right away. Use your book to start off with, they ask pretty much the same style of questions (almost) every year so just get used to them. Everything in those modules are a piece of piss, only VERY BASIC calculus.
Where's my boys from the last thread at?
>>8014404
No.
Jk yes
>>8014402
yep, it's /v/ alright
>>8016601
this cat has serious mental issues
