How soon do you guys think humanity will establish a self-sustainable colony on Mars? Here's one interesting, albeit very optimistic scenario that I found.
2016:
The United States, Russian Federation, and China lead the world in space technologies and exploration. Eight
countries (Russia, Ukraine, United States, Japan, China, India, Israel and Iran) and one regional organization (the
European Space Agency, ESA) control over 1,100 active satellites in outer space. Dozens of other countries begin
to invest in the development of space programs and research. The demilitarization of the solar system is a priority
in international legislation, as terrorism and violent social oppression on Earth characterize the latter part of the
decade.
2023:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels reach 450 parts per million (ppm) and push global temperatures to 2 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Sea levels rise, and many small island nations are forced to seek refuge on
continental coasts. Global warming is beginning to reveal long term mental and physical health effects on the
inhabitants of Earth.
2025:
Farming practices are discovered and developed that allow crop growth in oxygen-deprived climates. New
technology is designed to support human life in these same climates, but is expensive to manufacture. Developing
countries begin to fear they are being left behind in the race to space, and several ally with surrounding nations to
assist in long term development goals by providing the little natural resources that are left on Earth.
2028:
Unmanned shuttles and rovers travel to Mars to construct the colony that humans will inhabit in the future. The
colony, designed to house 40 people, contains the technology to sustain human life on Mars’ surface. The media
increases coverage on future space colonization. Activist groups arising in Central America, Southeast Asia, and the
United States oppose space settlements on the grounds that it will prompt global conflicts that may eventually
lead to war. However, support outweighs scrutiny, and much of the developed world continues with developments.
2031:
Delayed by five years, the first manned Mars mission departs on its one-way journey to the distant planet. A group
of scientists and their families, representing eight satellite nations, settle on Mars while maintaining contact with
Earth. Research reveals that long term colonization on Mars is feasible in large numbers, prompting several nations
to prepare the launch of settlements within twenty years.
2043:
A second set of colonists, consisting of 8 scientists and agricultural experts, is sent to Mars. After this operation is
deemed successful, a new program is put in place that sends 50 more people every month.
2060:
With approximately 100,000 people now living in space, tensions have reached an all time high. Border and land
disputes plague the planet, and the United States, Russian Federation, and China have been attempting to take
significant control over their respective surrounding areas. Western European countries, weary of the positions of
their settlements, have held covert meetings and rumors are circulating regarding the reincarnation of the
European Union on Mars. Poorer nations are still struggling to send representatives to space due to the high costs
of sustaining human life on Mars.
That's where the scenario ends but I'm interested to hear some thoughts on how feasible it is, and what might come after.
>2060
>100,000 people living in space
>>8005221
We could do it the 2020s.
We will do it in the 2200s.
To most people this idea seems about as likely as everyone in the army carrying lightsabers instead of guns, and they will imagine it as the most expensive endeavor conceivable.....right before paying taxes for something that is more costly.
Wish I could send my ex girlfriend to Mars! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
>>8005224
>ah to be young and idealistic
>>8005232
>2060:
>With approximately 100,000 people now living in space
This is what Muskfags actually believe
"1990? 6 million people living on the moon."
-Nazi rocket guy, 1873
>>8005261
>>8005272
I said the scenario was very optimistic, did I not? Regardless, I still think it's possible. Humanity just needs to actually gets its ass into gear and focus on going into space once again, which admittedly is not going to happen without either serious overpopulation/environmental problems down here on Earth, or some form of political pissing contest in the form of a second space race.
>>8005291
>I said the scenario was very optimistic, did I not?
That's an understatement. Nobody outside of /sci/ or even this thread really gives a shit about space exploration or pushing humanities boundaries, there's probably more people who are actually outright opposed to the concept.
I hate to say it but what you posted isn't so much optimistic as it is delusional. Just mentioning space cost N.G. his run at the White House.
>>8005291
Human spaceflight is a novelty
There is nothing out there for us
The really cool stuff is too far away for us to reach
Robotic probes are the only plausible way to explore deep space
>>8005300
It's not a bad idea to aim for at least a medium sized colony on Mars. This is something we definitely aspire to. People shit all over the rationale that Earth could be destroyed just for laughs but then they can't say that's impossible either.
For a planet with nothing out there for us there are still plenty that would volunteer to go, if you're not interested I simply recommended that you stay here.
>>8005295
Alright fair enough, it's absolutely out of the question at the moment, but who knows? Maybe given a few decades of the Earth going to shit people might start to realize that space exploration is a very good long-term investment.
Not to mention to trillions of dollars of precious metals contained within the asteroid belt, which will probably become attainable a lot sooner than you think.
>>8005310
>hurr durr i hate my life on earth so ill go to mars where i can be edgy and emo all I want
sending people on a one way trip to mars is the stupidest most idiotic thing imaginable
mars may look comfy in pics but its an old dead world with NO OXYGEN and NO LIQUID WATER and SHIT GRAVITY
lol good luck aspie
>>8005315
It's been going to shit for a long time but imagining a future in space is still outside the realm of belief or interest for your average citizen.
>>8005315
>Maybe given a few decades of the Earth going to shit people might start to realize that space exploration is a very good long-term investment.
No, people will realize fixing their own planet is a better long term investment
>>LOL We'll terraform other worlds!!!11
If you have the ability to make other worlds like earth, then you can make earth back into earth
>Not to mention to trillions of dollars of precious metals contained within the asteroid belt
Any value of material in the asteroid belt is worthless because of the logistical nightmare in going there, mining it, and then bringing it back
>>8005318
Hmm, oddly specific post m8.
>assuming everyone is you
I've got a great life, and many explorers had fine lives as well but ventured out regardless.
No, it doesn't look comfy at all, but that isn't the point. Are you in high school? I teach and I've heard this before. Go do your homework.
>>8005310
There are plenty who volunteer to treat their cancer with homeopathy too. Doesn't make it any less stupid. People need to grow up and accept that reality is not Star Trek.
>>8005324
>i teach
No wonder kids leave school with no fucking clue about anything.
>>8005321
>No, people will realize fixing their own planet is a better long term investment
>this thread
It's not about making a better new world or fixing the old one, both will likely face the same problems RE: resoucrces and society etc. just on different scales and for different reasons you just want more worlds for more people and more possibility!
Fuck you guys I'm out.
>>8005324
>m8
>I teach
You aren't a teacher. You are a dumbfuck autist kid who needs a reality check.
>>8005326
Having edge doesn't make you a better person anon.
>>8005321
>No, people will realize fixing their own planet is a better long term investment
I certainly agree that fixing problems on Earth takes priority, but that doesn't mean we can't devote any resources at all to space exploration. For example, if the US decreased its military budget by just one thirtieth, it could double NASA's budget.
>>>LOL We'll terraform other worlds!!!11
When the fuck did I say anything about terraforming?
>Any value of material in the asteroid belt is worthless because of the logistical nightmare in going there, mining it, and then bringing it back
Again, this isn't something that is economically viable right now, but we already have the technology, so within a few decades I would say it is certainly feasible, and indeed rather profitable. Also don't forget that many asteroids are mostly water, which happens to be a convenient propellent, so that could potentially cut delta-v requirements significantly, and thus make it cost much less.
>>8005221
>>8005224
>>8005232
Nice fantasy you got there.
More likely, this will be the following setup for just basic Mars operations:
- orbital fuel depot
- orbital station (in the event a craft gets to Mars, but cannot deorbit for some reason)
- orbital radio relays (better than what we have now)
- GPS satellites (enough for both mapping and navigation on the ground)
Then we can begin building things on Mars itself:
- landing/launch pad
- mines (small ones, mind you. Imagine a drone planting demolition explosives. No tunnel boring machines here)
- refineries
- assembly plants
And even then, this is just to build "basic" materials (steel and sulfurcrete among others) so electronics, copper wiring, cameras, and grease (for motors, actuators, hydraulics etc) would still have to be flown in. Pic related is probably one of the single most valuable vehicles NASA will have to get to Mars without breaking. It alone weighs over 120 tons (112 metric tons).
So this is no small deal, one which might only be started by the 2040s or 50s assuming NASA can get enough money for it.
>>8005300
>Human spaceflight is a novelty
>There is nothing out there for us
Attitudes like these are why we havent done more in space
>>8005460
“We have no need of other worlds. We need mirrors. We don't know what to do with other worlds. A single world, our own, suffices us; but we can't accept it for what it is.”
>>8005444
Also, as it pertains to setting up just mines on Mars, this is no small task given that enormous amounts of materials have to be moved just to set it up. For example:
1. remotely operated vehicles capable of boring holes, and filling them with explosives
2. remotely operated vehicles capable of installing mine jacks and permanent supports
3. a vehicle capable of installing enough control cords into said mine
4. a vehicle capable of moving said material out of the mine
This is easily over 1000 tons of equipment.
>>8005470
pic related is also the processing plant to make cement (even if it's not water-based). All of this would have to be fully automated as well.
Point being that there's no cheap way of doing this, even with heavy launch rockets you're still pushing the boundaries as to what is possible. The only way around it is to scale down. For example, a bobcat excavator only weighs about 3 tons.
>>8005444
>>8005470
>>8005477
And, as it pertains to dump trucks, that's 35 tons per vehicle. Which is why the first priority of building any sort of serious colony would require building a steel plant so railroads can be built.
>>8005460
>attitudes like these
>realities like these
Fix'd
>>8005444
I don't understand, we're going to mine/forge steel on mars but we still need to ship an entire earthmover there? You don't think there's any conceivable way to use smaller machines to gathee the first few thousands tonnes of iron? Little robots with plasma torches? Or shit, how about we rangle a nearby iron asteroid and crash it into Mars, then recover usable iron from the impact site? (pre-smelted too if we get to it fast enough..)
>>8005517
That's what I suggested here >>8005477, but the problem is that the more you downscale, the slower things go. A job that takes half a day on earth could take a month depending on what vehicles you use. Meanwhile, more use means more wear, which means more possibility for a major breakdown.
Also, I'm suggesting using materials and practices that are currently known and understood. It's at least possible to build lots and lots of pic related on earth, test them here, then send them to Mars.
>>8005517
Also, bulldozers/earthmovers are important for making roads. The better road you have, the faster vehicles can move, the less maintenance that needs to be done, and the safer they are. The larger earthmover you have, the more roads you can make in a given amount of time. Which means more efficient expansion.
>>8005321
>retard libs talking about "fixing muh planet" when literally the whole problem is their delusional denial of reality & self-destructive behavior
hopefully the west is able to get offworld before libs finish destroying it
Better not bring shitskins to mars...
Alaska is a better place to live. So send people there instead.
>>8005295
this.
>Read about Mars and SpaceX
>Amazed
>Other worlds out there that we can live on soon
>Stare at the stars every night while others go about their day completely ignoring them
>Tell family about SpaceXs plans for Mars, life on Europa and our recent imaging of Pluto
>"Meh whatever X Factor is on tonight"
Plebs dont give a shit about space.
>>8006426
I know how you feel, man. I beileve that being an interplanetary and eventually an interstellar civilization is the next for us as a species. I see untold opportunities everytime I look up at the stars. Hopefully soon we can get our priorities straightened out and focus on advancing ourselves instead of fighting over limited and throwing out money away at stupid shit like a new superhero movie or someshit.
But don't worry. Those short-sighted people will be the ones begging with tears for spot on a space shuttle once this planet has been turned to shit.
>>8006455
>interstellar civilization is the next for us as a species
No it's not, it's a fucking meme.
>focus on advancing ourselves
Some of us are doing that...others shitpost about it after reading a sci-fi novel.
>Those short-sighted people will be the ones begging with tears for spot on a space shuttle once this planet has been turned to shit.
No matter how shit this planet gets it's still going ot be a million times better than anything out there. How do you not know this?
Also, given that we'll all likely be dead long before that impossibility (mars colony) materialises, somehow I don't think this fantasy of yours will come to be.
>>8006426
I bet you're not even in STEM.
>>8006471
>calls space travel and exploration a meme
>>8006072
No. That would be pointless. Alaska isn't any different than Nevada or West Virginia in terms of the sort of life style you would end up living.
Every challenge you overcame in Alaska will have already been done by millions of others in Alaska and in other parts of the world for centuries--nothing new here. You won't discover shit. You don't need to develop new technologies to enable your progress. You won't change anything. You won't have any new experiences. You won't expand the frontier of human habitability. You'd still have to pay taxes, you'd still have the same culture, and you'd still be completely under US jurisdiction and sovereignty no matter how remote of a location you chose. Lots of places are nicer than Mars and lots of places are nicer than Alaska (Hawaii for example) but maybe people don't choose where they live just because it's "nice" .
You'd just be in Alaska. I've been there, it's nice but why the fuck did you even post that?
>>8006572
Maybe because the day it becomes possible to live on Mars it would be as pointless as living in Alaska?
Never.
>>8005221
50/50 on a sustainable colony within 100 years
>>8008478
define sustainable.
if by sustainable you mean monthly supply drops, then yeah maybe
if you mean sustainable like the USA/China could be if they decided to shut down international trade, then nope
serious point here, do we even as a species know HOW to be 'self sustaining' anymore? Capitalism has made the planet interdependent to such an extent that we're probably lost the ability to organize a self-sufficient society
>>8008502
caveat: we've probably lost the ability to organize a self-sufficient society without needing an entire planet with billions of people and a permanent dollar-a-day 'slave' class (slave in " because its still 200% higher than global pay 2 decades ago, but all relative ofc)
>>8008502
>if by sustainable you mean monthly supply drops, then yeah maybe
Uh, the Earth->Mars window only opens once every 2.2 years.
>>8008286
Mars would still be the same after an extinction event on Earth.
>>8005329 Gotem
>>8005334 >reality check
>medium sized colony on Mars is unrealistic
It will certainly be extremely difficult but lets wait a couple decades to see if reusability changes the game before deciding that it just flat out can't happen.
If we're talking about doing it the NASA way though I agree with you, it would be unrealistic because it would just cost too damn much.
>>8005321
>If you have the ability to make other worlds like earth, then you can make earth back into earth
Good fucking luck getting that done when you've got bureaucracy and corporations for miles to deal with in order to do so not to mention asshats like China which will just keep pumping pollution into the atmosphere because they just don't give two fucks.
Should we aspire to and try to clean things up here on Earth? Absolutely. Should we put all our eggs in the single basket of depending on this cleanup to happen successfully? Absolutely no fucking way.
>>8009653
Once infrastructure is set up, Mars will also be a vastly superior launch point for missions elsewhere in the solar system and beyond. Taking the time to set ourselves up on Mars could save us decades when it comes to doing other space things simply because launching is *that* much easier, and we'd learn volumes about space life from having lived on Mars.
Once the base is out there I can't imagine you'll have any trouble at all finding scientists, physicists, and engineers who'd want to go.
>>8005221
>2016:
>The United States, Russian Federation, and China lead the world in space technologies and exploration.
China? What are you smoking? You meant France. The three countries that can "safely" put stuff in space today are Russia, France (leading ESA) and the US.
The rest are just begginers or testers. Even Japan, I repeat, fucking Japan with all their technology and capabilities lost a spacecraft last week.
China is surely trying and will eventually succeed, but it's at or 70s Soviet level at best.
If you want to put a human being in space you look at Russia.
If you want to something not containing humans in space you look at Russia, France or the US.
If you want to cross your fingers and watch your thing explode you look at the rest.
>>8009653
>after an extinction event on Earth.
Yeah but that will never happen.
>>8009930
racist
>>8009994
A natural extinction event probably won't happen within your lifetime, but it will happen, likely while humans are still inhabiting earth. It's happened several times in the past and will happen again. It's just a matter of time.
Human-driven extinction events on the otherhand are entirely possible.
>>8009930
>Even Japan, I repeat, fucking Japan with all their technology and capabilities lost a spacecraft last week.
That's hardly unique. NASA, ESA and Roscosmos lose spacecraft all the time.
>>8009994
>extinction events will never happen
You are aware that such an event would not be the first on this planet, right?
We actually have the ability to move our population to another planet and settle it, not utilizing that capability is stupid and short-sighted.
