I-is he going to make it after all?
>>81000388
If Hillary continues the way she is yes. All he has to do is keep his mouth shut
>>81000388
it's July now
>>81000536
Yeah so?
>>81000388
>may 22, 2016
>>81000499
>All he has to do is keep his mouth shut
lol. He can't. He's a fucking narcissist.
>>81000388
>I-is he going to make it after all?
He might, but there is still a campaign to be got through -- campaigns matter.
>>81000499
>All he has to do is keep his mouth shut
Oh well, so much for that...
If either of them just shut the fuck up for a few months, and let the other run his/her mouth, that might be an unusually effective strategy this year.
>>81000536
I just took a random pic
>>81000648
So that is an old graph, what does it look like now?
>>81000648
We still have 4 months left. Just look at how much fluctuation there was between now and 4 months ago
>>81000805
Sorry I just glanced at the picture. OP needs to renew his graph.
>>81000805
New graph is shilled to pieces. You have trump leading in some polls and practically tied or few points behind, and then you have some bloomberg polls that put hillary at +12 or +11 that cause this big gap in the graph.
>>81000388
Let's bring this up to date...
>>81001147
If you want to look at the polls as something to talk about, you sort of have to look at all of them.
If you just want to talk about the ones that give the answer you like, the conversation is meaningless and I'd suggest we all adjourn over to /s/ and look at nekkid women.
>>81001349
wouldn't want a dose of reality
>>81001349
Looks grim for him, is there any gamechanger that may help him out? According to this graph his maximum is 1:1 with Shillary.
>>81001147
>>81001349
>using just an average
highschool tier stats right here 2bh
here, have a superior model instead
>>81001147
>>81001349
>>81000388
One thing I do notice about these -- each candidate seems to drop following attracting major attention to themselves. To win, they should adopt the "disinterested observer" status, with campaign by proxy, that the founders envisioned.
>>81001729
What's the source on that graph?
>>81001945
its (((nate shillver's)))
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
>>81000388
this shit is irrelevant only swing states matter
>>81002065
So trump is 7% behind? I thought he was leading? What is it now?
>>81000665
He has shut his mouth recently. The only controversy of late was the stupid star bullshit. All he has to do is let the media continue to overreach with no substance and he has this in the bag.
>>81001607
I am not a Trump fan, nor am I a Hillary fan, but yeah, there is more than hope for him. Each of them has a shot at winning from where they are now.
There is an entire campaign to go, a lot can happen during the campaign. Either candidate or, to a lesser extent, VP candidate, could have a major fuck-up. The economy could tank again. ISIS could mount some major attack that swings the electorate Some catch phrase or great commercial could crystallize public opinion. Hillary's health could crash. Trump's act should start to get old. Hell, Trump is so far from the mold of a traditional candidate, I would only be slightly surprised if he said, "Fuck it, this is not as much fun as the primaries, think I:ll go back to banging starlets and being a gazillionaire."
Polls are a snapshot of where the electorate is when the poll is taken, they have no predictive power for the future because future events matter.
>>81001550
It would be a fair statement if these polls were not conducted by people with personal interests in Trump not winning.
However, that is not the case.
Bloomberg predicted just before Brexit that its chance was going to be 75% of staying in the EU just before the vote in order to shill the elections.
It also put the stay campaign above with a 4 points lead which made the media say that Stay was going to win.
When the Brexit came, they lost badly and then they changed the chance in the website.
So you do have to take into account all of that.
>>81000388
He was never going to fail.
>>81001729
>Somebody guessing is superior...
>>81000388
no shit he is going to make it
its been the plan for 8 years
he wont run a second term
third party will win 2020
hill will be arrested
Elections are already decided years in advance
>>81001945
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
>>81002402
>hillary winning florida
>>81002177
he's not 7% behind
the odds according to their model are (only) 7% in hillary's favor whereas they were like 60% not even a few days ago
wait for a few more polls like todays to come in
>>81001607
Becoming American president is not about winning popular vote, but winning the electoral college. Trump is in dead heat in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. He definitely has a chance.
>>81000536
Yesssss fuck yes. Please use that argument, liberal scum, I fucking dare you. Lmfao
if we learned anything from Brexit, the polls mean jack shit in how things will turn out.
>>81001589
Kek. Liberals are terrified, fucking awesome. I've watched as tone of you shills has slowly moved from smug, to hysterical and unhinged, to desperate and depressed. It's dawning on you that Trump will win, and no amount of shilling will change that. So you spam 4chan to try to convince yourself that Trump won't win. You desperately spam and spam and spam, but that little feeling inside of you just won't go away. Liberal suffering is such a beautiful thing. Kek.
>>81002759
Except leave was winning in the run up to the vote... It had a slight edge.
>>81001607
Hillary will not have the needed steam to go through with it all.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/07/14/gallagher_team_clinton_has_outspent_trump_40-1_in_swing_states_and_is_only_tied.html
Hillary is outspending him 40:1 and is tied.
There is not much more gas that she can give, and keeping it up will be extremely dificult.
>>81002955
Yeah, the actual vote had leave win. The polls before hand had remain winning https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/
Hillaryfags on suicide watch.
>>81000388
>I-is he going to make it after all?
No.
>>81002402
>http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
>538
>Nate Silver got literally every prediction about Trump wrong in the primaries
>>81002955
I watched it all the way through. The media said that Stay was ahead.
>>81000388
It's all going to depend on Republican TURNOUT!!!
>>81003269
What happened to Reuters' credibility? They were supposed to be the British AP.
>>81003269
>increasingly nervous man.jpg
>>81003335
he didn't though? his models were pretty good its just that he for whatever dumb reason decided to completely ignore them whenever he talked about the primaries
He's fucked, Hillary has the poke vote
>>81002402
>Hillary
>Florida
haha no. As a Floridian unless he really does something to fuck up I can say with 100% confidence he will win this state.
>>81003417
exactly
VP pick might help Trump out.
>>81001729
Fuck you nigger.
>>81003652
Hillary is going to war with Russia, everyone is fucked.
>be right wing
>have perfect non racist explanation for every opinion
>racist anyway
>>81004068
hey dipshit, KKK is a democratic institution, not republican
Trump already one
kek praises it
Of course, he has multiple ways of winning
See the main option, pic relatived
>>81003417
The online polls showed leave winning but the phone ones favoured remain.
>>81003944
>nigger
>slovenia
lmao, there's like 3 niggers in total in the whole country
stay mad, leafshit
>>81004241
Option 2
>>81004241
Obama probably handed republicans the police vote.
>>81004430
Option 2 pt 2
>>81002596
Ironic that you use the exact same argument when Trump is losing.
>>81004534
Option 3
>>81004608
Option 3 pt 2
>>81004709
And last case scenario for the Trump camp is option 4
>>81002065
>Nate cardboard
Wew
>>81003457
>Reuters' credibility
>Born Israel Josaphat in Kassel, Germany, his father, Samuel Levi Josaphat, was a rabbi. His mother was Betty Sanders.
>>81001147
>>81001147
I've suspected this but I don't care enough to look through every poll
I looked through some of the recent ones and it had Hilary at +4 ahead of Trump, but they recorded it as +6
From the polls I looked at, they all used the same method of phone polling 50% landline
People who answer landlines during the day probably don't have a job and live off the government
i
>>81000388
What is the name of this poll? I can never find it
>>81000499
this desu
hes entertaining but sometimes hes really tiring to keep up and defend
