CUT MY LIFE INTO PIECES
THIS IS MY LAST RESORT
A fucking lead
no freedom
boys over here sitting down peeing
>>78885330
>tfw bloom(((berg))) polls are an all time low to make the emperor look bad
I don't understand why anyone would vote for her.
>>78885330
CUS I'M LOSING MY SIGHT, LOSING MY MIND
WISH SOMEBODY WOULD TELL ME I'M FINE
Reminder to hide and sage shill threads. Do not give them (You)'s or bumps.
>>78886729
NOTHING'S ALRIGHT,
NOTHING IS FINE
@78886841
Wow, you sure convinced me.
Guess I'm now a #BernieMissile
>>78886841
I'M RUNNING AND I'M CRYING
Hurry up and buy guns before Shillary gets in office
I refuse to believe any of these polls.
I live in a majorly liberal city. NO ONE is excited for Hillary. I have yet to see a single yard sign with her name on it. Saw plenty of Bernie signs during the primary.
Are niggers, spics, fags, single childless women and dead people enough to win a national election? I guess we're going to find out.
>>78885330
>>78885330
Saving all these threads for the day he gets elected.
Wish I saved all the Anti Brexit stuff too.
>>78886841
WTF happened in early June?
>>78887196
Trumpfags are the silent majority of industrial towns and rural America. Hilldawgs are the silent majority of the cities, not even Berniefags defeated them. And Berniefags are jumping on the Hillary train...
>>78885330
another shillary tools circle jerking thread
>"Oh, look at my African-American over here. Look at him. Are you the greatest?"
What did he mean by this?
>>78887367
>WTF happened in early June?
The primary ended.
>>78885397
FUCKING
>>78886841
Do you have any idea how many unregistered voters are going to vote this time, and I guarentee you it won't be many for hilldog
>>78887602
Hispanics are registering to vote in record numbers specifically to vote against Trump.
>>78885330
Hillary and her globalist conspirators are pivoting.
This "Trump is losing" skewed polling numbers is a front to dishearten his supporters and stop his momentum.
It's the equivalent of stock market manipulation and scaremongering people into dumping their stocks.
>>78887682
>Ay caramba! gotta protect the illegals flooding across the borders
I'm going to bathe in white nationalists' tears this coming November.
I honestly want to thank trump for handing over the hispanic voting bloc permanently to the democrats.
The right wing, as a collective, is fucked and I'm really going to enjoy when it dawns on them that they will never, ever be re-elected.
>>78887367
>What happened in June
Trump started acting "Presidential"
>>78885330
Does RCP do poll correction at all like 538?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
Trump will win
>>78887196
This.
We're coming out of the fucking woodwork on actual voting day.
Democraps are gonna get record rekt
>>78887196
>I have yet to see a single yard sign with her name on it. Saw plenty of Bernie signs during the primary.
And look what happened.
>>78888485
I doubt it, probably just raw aggregate. HuffPo might though.
>>78888323
But Republicans never had the favourability of Hispanics, so Trump doesn't change anything. Trump might win because you minorities have a lower voter turnout than whites and blacks only had a higher one when King Nigger was running for president.
>>78887464
LEAF
>>78889272
Lame. Not sure why 538 doesn't have their national poll-plus ratings up yet. Some have said they're waiting until all the conventions are over or they're waiting for the first debate.
>>78885330
If Brexit can tell you anything about a political landscape like yours, it's that most conservative voters don't participate in polls, or don't announce their allegiance easilt for fear of a backlash or insult by a left-leaning voter.
The polls were all stacked against the Leave campaign here in the UK, yet when it came down to it, the silent voters were scrambled and became a reckoning majority.
Do not fear, the revolution of the Right is here. We will destroy the Left so we can rebuild it, to what it once was, Liberty without Fascism, Freedom without Restriction, Equality without Affirmative Action.
>>78889617
That isn't true. In the lead up to the vote Leave led in many polls. The date suggested it would be a tossup with a narrow victory either way, which is exactly what happened.
Shy voters have yet to prove they are a factor here. If anything, Trump's performances in the primaries underperformed his polling several times.
>We will destroy the Left so we can rebuild it
That's not how it works. The Left is dead in the UK for a generation or more. You won't be rebuilding so much as starting from scratch.
>>78889311
Scroll down to the scenario editor in this article and fudge with the numbers yourself.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/28/will_demographics_sink_donald_trump_130095.html
The republicans have held around 20-30% of the Hispanic vote-share for the last decade, a very sizable chunk, which is something I can't see happening with the rhetoric this election.
Not only that, I can't see any reason not to assume that the minority turnout won't be just as high as the white turnout. This election has inflamed everyone and the constant insults towards every minority group's country, ethnicity or heritage is going to really shit all over him.
The GOP and the right wing are fucking dead. The percentage of non-hispanic whites has dropped to just 63%. Soon, within maybe 8-10 years, whites will be a majority-minority population and every facet of society in this country will permanently shift to the left.
>>78891722
This is how we fall, not from an invading army but from overflowing with third worlders. It's only a matter of time before we look like any other shitty south and central american country.
>>78885330
Wasn't Trump at the very end in the poll before the GOP debates?
Just wait for him and Hillary to stand side by side on the stage.
Trump-"So Hillary you condemned Bill Cosby's rapes but not your husbands?"
Hillary-you bigot!
Trump- The mother of the son who was killed in Benghazi is in the front row tonight with my wife and son tonight could you explain to her why her son is dead and why you deleted the emails?
Hillary-R...RACIST!!
>>78892762
I suspect Hillary will try and weasel her way out of debating Trump.
LEAF
>>78892237
How you fall?
YOU ALREADY ARE FALLING.
And with the results this November, everyone will see how quickly politics and attitudes towards minorities will change. They will soon realize they will never win without having some decency in attitude towards non-whites.
The option of shifting policies in immigration that will save the hateful and degenerate vision of America people like you have, is gone. The shift in demographics this last decade have sealed that.
For all the shit-talking that goes on about the left, we don't fucking lose. The right wing have become complacent with defeat and shitty fucking memes.
>>78885330
>>78893013
>>78893013
BASED
>>78892958
I'll give you this, leftists and minorities have sure shifted my attitude with a string of violent displays from Chicago to San Jose. It's really opened my eyes to the fact that there can never be peace with bolsheviks and that I need to prepare for the race war that they seem intent on provoking.
>>78893013
/thread thank you based Australia
>>78893173
This
I cant believe the violence I see from lefties here in San Jose.
The world lefties want is a world I want no part in.
>>78892833
Nonsense. Trump has no formal education in argument and his performance in the Republican debates was sad shit.
Hillary wouldn't even have to do anything but wait for him to say something stupid and then correct him.
>>78893013
saved
>>78893246
>.01 shekels have been deposited to your account
>>78893246
Thanks to you, I am now a Cruz Missile.
>>78893246
He won the Republican debates, it was pretty much universal agreement on that point.
>>78893246
Hillary could barely handled Bernie.
>>78893246
>formal education in argument
oh boy he didn't join the debate club what a tragedy
>>78893479
technically he even won the debate he didn't show up to as well.
>>78893693
Yea I remember that, they couldn't stop talking about him.
>>78893479
>He won the Republican debates, it was pretty much universal agreement on that point.
>retards still don't know how online polls work
See
>>78893693
>>78892833
donald would do the debate anyway and use the time to attack hillary without her being able to defend herself
>>78887367
>WTF happened in early June?
Trump became the presumptive nominee and people started trying to convince themselves that he'll have to do.
Then Trump continued being Trump and they got it out of their system.
>>78893173
>>78893243
Do you know WHY we win?
We plan and prepare 10, 20, sometimes 30 years in advance with policies that might be unpopular at the time and all you reactionary, right-wing shits do is just that, you react. No planning, no thinking, nothing.
Except you're not even a true reactionary, you fantasize about some stupid scenario that will never happen. Again, with no planning or thinking.
You are a frog that has been slowly boiling alive and will continue to be boiled alive.
>>78893981
Who said anything about online polls?
>>78885330
Ok
>>78885397
>>78887464
>>78889315
>>78894125
Yes we know you guys are trying to destroy the world and break down borders, one world government, blah blah blah.
No idea why you would be excited about such a prospect.
>>78885330
If Brexit can win, so can Trump. Brexit was behind in the polls for the vast majority of the time.
>>78889311
>But Republicans never had the favourability of Hispanics
But they can always do worse. Same goes for every demographic except blacks and gays.
>>78894125
Liberals just admitted to lying and panderers.
Kys.
You fucking cucks dont let this happen. We'll probably have this old cunte for another 4 years!
>Selbstbestimmungsrecht der Völker
Let Merkel and Hillary rule Europe with all the commies and brown people, also deport nonwhites from the US to Europe. Then bring all the whites from there to the United States of White Men (fuck women), lead by Trump obviously.
Not sure which country would perform better ...
>>78892762
>Wasn't Trump at the very end in the poll before the GOP debates?
No, which is why he was front and center in the first GOP debate
>>78894169
>universally agreed upon
The online polling universe is the only universe where that was true
>>78894125
The left hasn't planned shit. It's just shifted it's "ideals" to whatever is convenient for and the idiots leftists fall in line. Remember when the left was the party of the working class and opposed things like free trade and supported unions? Remember when the left was opposed to suppressing free speech and supported privacy rights? Probably not, because you have that typical selective leftist memory. There's an irony in you talking about frogs boiling in water when your entire idealistic platform and been totally reversed and you didn't even notice.
>>78894301
No you lunatic. We want some decency, that's it. Most of the successful minorities agree with the fiscal policies in the republican party but cannot stomach the rhetoric and undercurrent of oppression that comes with it. If you are not a minority, you will probably not understand.
>>78894365
And what about conservatives?
Wholesome and pure?
4han is supposedly contrarian and edgy
>becomes completely brainwashed by the most populist candidate because he spouts shit about walls and niggers
>june
>relevance
Pick one
>>78894691
>You cannot understand oppression because you are not a minority
Jesus christ people actually think this way
>>78894770
>both leading candidates have 99% name recognition
>implying the early polling is shit rule applies in this situation when it was designed around the idea that we will learn more about these candidates as the election continues
The only thing we're going to learn is whether or not Hillary is going to jail and how many time Trump can flip on an issue before he can no longer remember at any given moment what his official position is supposed to be.
>>78894691
Well we don't want to destroy culture and history by flooding our societies with theocrats.
So comparatively yes.
YOU WANT DECENCY HAHAHAHA
Yes because being ficki ficki's or thrown off building by the 'religion of peace' (Read; Against everything you stand for) is fucking decency. Because limiting somebody's free speech because 'oh you're racist/bigot/xenophobe' is decency.
>>78885330
>implying polls actually mean anything anymore
Remember how the polls said like 90% of people wanted to remain?
>>78894628
I am talking about decency towards minorities. Not unions or the working class.
And I don't care if the left is only pretending in its ideals or not. There are definitely many things I want changed about it. But the fact remains is that for minorities, the right wing is by far the worst. They are both implicitly and explicitly hostile towards minorities. Why the fuck would I vote for that?
>>78894890
And because you and your party fail to even give it a thought is why the right wing is dead.
>>78895128
I don't want to limit free speech as a way of decency, I want America to become a country where throwing minorities under the bus in the name of abstract bullshit like culture is political suicide.
>>78896273
>Abstract
>Culture
Pick one.
>>78887413
should he have said "my nigga" instead, faggot?
>>78886636
Did you make this image? How did you get hired to work for Hillary? Do you get paid well? How can I get a job?
>>78896340
What is American culture?
Who makes it?
Who's against it?
Any answer you give is going to create some sort of scapegoat and won't be true to all Americans.
>>78896273
Your idea of stopping oppression is by giving people token positions despite not being qualified for them. Giving out more welfare and "apologising" for slavery.
All things that do nothing for oppression.
>>78887464
KANGZ
>>78894691
Ive dealt with oppression. I went to get an application at a restaurant and the mexican illegals laughed at me saying I needed to speak Spanish.
Im a minority in my city
Where's your wall now?
>>78896273
>I am talking about decency towards minorities. Not unions or the working class.
>And I don't care if the left is only pretending in its ideals or not.
So all you give a shit about is who is going to pay the most lip service to minorities and you don't even care if they're being sincere. That's bellow single issue voters in the shallow political views hierarchy.
>>78896611
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwyzMw3kImI
http://heidelblog.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Big-Mac.jpg
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/new-york-city-skyline-tallest-midtown-manhattan/assets/img/relatedContent/promo-01.jpg
Some examples of American culture, it is of course subject to change such as the transition from Elvis to David Bowie and so on but the "culture" we're stuck with now is nothing but a liberal modern art circle jerk.
>>78896611
>American Culture...
Is a secular melting pot formed by immigrant cultures. It's fine if they adds some and assimilates to our culture, the problem is that Islam does neither.It conquers, destroys, then replaces everything with their Islamic theocratic culture.
>Fought for it
The men who fought against the Brits
The men who fought to keep the US together
Every soldier who ever died for the US
>Against it
Globalists
Regressives
Social Justice Warriors
>>78896755
Maybe you should learn to adapt then.
>>78885330
hilarious how /pol/memes and absolute retards singlehandedly gave the election to the demorats
it was worth it "for the lulz" right guys?
>>78898081
It was. There is no going back, the useless GOP cucks have been exposed and Republicans will keep electing mini-Trumps even if they just gum up the works with House and Senate majorities under nagger presidents.
>>78898320
>Republicans will keep electing mini-Trumps
Why would you assume this? People see convinced that Trump is the beginning of some new movement win or lose, but if Trump loses by historic proportions as he is currently slated to then all it will prove is that you can't win by emulating his campaign (which is obvious).
>>78897852
Maybe ill vote for Trump and see that wall built.
>>78885330
>>78898508
Wages have stagnated, debt of all sorts has climbed up, the working class whites have been thrown under the bus, nobody at does anything but give lip service to immigration. It's part of a shift rejecting globalism happening all over the West.
Trump didn't start it, he tapped into it. Eric Cantor got thrown out by an economist running primarily on immigration, Paul Ryan is being challenged by the same type of guy, several mini Trumps at the state level are ready to challenge incumbents in November.
>>78898847
Maybe you'll vote for Trump and he'll still lose because you live in a blue state and minority voters are kingmakers in this country now.
>>78886249
Because Trump is raycis.
>>78898981
And Shillary is a womyn.
>>78898924
Okay but none of this changes that Democrats have a virtual lock on the White House, are going to have a SCOTUS majority, and could easily win back the Senate this November.
It doesn't matter whether people are angry if you can't translate that into electoral success, and if Trump loses that will send a message that his method of harnessing that anger was a failure. Nobody's going to care if a governor, Senator, or representative get elected by emulating Trump because they wield an insignificant amount of power.
>polls
Does anyone else think these are mostly just retarded?
If there's a poll I want to know how many people they asked + their method of asking. Without this information it's just mindless bullshit used to spin an agenda.
I seriously feel like the point of polls is simply to sway people and not for information
>>78899508
You might have a point were all polls not pointing to the same outcome. One poll can be easily be a fluke or an outlier, but when all of the polls are saying "Clinton's gonna win" you can't argue that there's a flaw in their methodology.
>Brexit
>literally every poll, every pundit, every mainstream politician, and all the sickeningly biased media blitz said the UK would remain
>Leave wins
>Trump
>>literally every poll, every pundit, every mainstream politician, and all the sickeningly biased media blitz say he won't be president
????????
>>78896631
I don't want any of those things.
I want to be able to live my life without minorities becoming scapegoats when politically convenient.
Affirmative action (in its present form) and reparations for slavery are not really things I agree with.
>>78897165
Sincerity will change when the demographics change and the public offices that will change with it. And this change, or its pace at this point, is only possible with the democrat party.
What I find funny is that there are so many people that think a bunch of primitive terrorists in the middle-east represent a threat to their family and way of life (and vote based on this), but the repeated hostilities of the right wing towards minorities in policies or rhetoric is no big deal.
What I want seems shallow to you is because you're probably not a minority, and can't see the gravity of the situation for us.
>>78897846
This is a nice vision of American culture, but I think Islam is made to be a threat much, much greater than it really is (compared to other things). This is really a problem for me because when a politician can scapegoat an entire people and get political brownie points for it, then there is always a possibility that you can scapegoat my people, when it's convenient, and get political brownie points. I don't ever want this to happen.
>>78899665
>literally every poll, every pundit, every mainstream politician, and all the sickeningly biased media blitz said the UK would remain
Except this didn't happen. Lots of polls had Leave winning especially in the final weeks.
>>78887848
People just really don't like your meme candidate, anon.
Like the portion of the Democratic base that actually votes will mindlessly vote for Hillary, plus all of the neocons that want interventionism, and all of the lolbertarians that want free trade will vote for Hillary, because she's just a combination of the two of them.
You need a coalition larger than dey terk er jerbs.
>>78898941
Trumps winning. Crime in this city is going up bigtime. 6 home invasions happened in my neighborhood this month and a car on our street got busted into. A legal Mexican girls. Cops said the ghetto little mexico areas have a lot of problems and are spreading out and stealing.
people are waking up. Not to mention isis inspired retards shot up their workplace in this county.
>>78899800
Except last minute polls that very same day were saying remain would win...
check'd tho
Remain is 10 points ahead guys! There's no chance Nigel is so cucked amirite ! ebin!
>>78899844
What you perceive happening around you doesn't necessarily reflect reality, just your own experiences. What state are you even from anyway?
>>78889617
Leave has the advantage that it was a working-class position and not a strictly right-wing position. Ergo, you could pull a little chunk from the left that would otherwise never support you, because it was a referendum rather than a partisan contest.
Presidential elections don't work that way.
>>78900105
>my logic doesn't apply to Trump because I don't want it to
I look so forward to the seas of salt that are coming this November.
>>78899830
Except #Brexit was polling REMAIN as winner all the way up to referendum. Please explain to me how the REMAIN fags weren't trying to control the narrative to disillusion the LEAVE voters.
It's absolutely happening in the US right now with the Hillary camp trying to paint Trump as "losing".
The fucking general election debates haven't even happened yet and here you are thumping your chest claiming Hillary victory. Sit the fuck down.
>>78900014
What will all of you be doing in late October when Hillary is still comfortably ten or so points ahead, I wonder? I assume you'll be in full denial and assume the polls are stacked against you, or something.
>>78900207
Presidential contests are a series of smaller contests, and you don't have the numbers to win them. I'm sure you have an actual substantive rebuttal somewhere under your third chin. Find it.
>>78900084
California
Its getting weird here.
Its beautiful yet so fucked up.
>>78900261
Debates do not matter as much as people think in the grand scheme of things. They do not tend to sway people's opinions of the candidates very much, they're pretty much only good for sound bites.
Even so, coming from the angle that "we will win as long as we do well in the debates/our opponent does poorly" is a loser's mentality.
>>78900349
ah yes the fat neckbeard argument. I'm sure it does you wonders in real life.
Remain "polled" at 10-15 points ahead for a year. yet somehow at the last minute it all disappears? Does that strike you odd at all?
>>78887196
Don't believe in polls
Brexit was losing in the most recent poll and yet they won 52/48
In Spain commies were said to get 97 seats and yet they only got 71 (from 26% of the votes in polls to 21%). Never trust in the lefty media
>>78900485
Except both candidates are highly "unlikeable" by just about everybody. If Hillary or Trump have an epic meltdown it could throw the election for either of them.
To say the debates won't matter in this election is just being plain myopic.
>>78900552
It's not really strange when most of the campaigning was done in the weeks leading up to the vote. And campaigns usually tighten up anyway as undecided voters finally have to pick a side.
>>78900282
Nope, they'll let the polls slide up closer to the real numbers. Because if they don't people will see how obvious the scam is in their methodology. If the polls said Hillary was winning by 10 points how did Trump win?
They can't hide it forever unless they manage to rig the voting machines too.
>>78900742
Examples? The remain side had a much stronger campaign didn't they?
I'll just leave this here, more coming....
>>78900855
Their campaign looked like "NAZIS! CRASHED ECONOMY!" from this side of the pond, m8.
That was probably ok for Cambridge, but not really convincing to the working class British who got shit on by neoliberals for three decades.
>>78900973
>>78901031
The demographics have shifted considerably since the 80s.
>>78900680
Clinton having a meltdown is wishful thinking. She's been through this process far to many times for someone like Trump to phase her.
>>78900762
It sounds like you're already at the denial stage, claiming the polls are rigged. I agree they will probably tighten up by the time November rolls around, and that the media will try to play it up like there's a real chance for either outcome, but that still doesn't mean the race will be close.
>>78900855
No, the Remain campaign was a clusterfuck between Cameron and Osborne both being despised and Corbyn refusing to cooperate and putting in a lukewarm effort at best.
Boris and Johnson both had populist appeal and a more inspiring message to campaign on. Remain's failure can largely be blamed on the incompetence o the politician's who backed it.
>>78900973
>difference between actual result and final poll 5%
and if you look just one result back the difference is 12% + 4% = 16% difference!
how reliable are polls if they are off by 16 points in real elections?
>>78901184
the democrats were clearly winning by large margins anon... are todays polls perfect because of demographics?>>78901374
i'm sure in hindsight you'll say how obvious it was Trump was going to win too.
>>78885330
Those brexit polls were accurate too, right?
>>78901184
Demographic shifts are irrelevant unless the shifted considerably during the course of a particular election depicted in these pics. The point is that, according to the june poll results, Carter should have been re-elected, either HW Bush should have been re-elected or Perot should have won, and Dukakis should have won. June polls mean nothing.
say it with me....PRESIDENT JOHN KERRY, elected June of 2004
PRESIDENT HUBERT HUMPHREY, elected June 1968
>>78885330
Kek has spoken, don't worry
Post convention if his numbers drop I would agree. But there is a long time before the election. Remember how Mittens had a convincing lead then threw it away by cucking himself in the debate.
PRESIDENT THOMAS DEWEY elected June 1948
>>78901618
>>78901916
Going this far back for examples is pure desperation. Electoral politics today are nothing like what they were back then, and neither is polling.
>>78901618
Plus, if anything, Trump is Humphrey in this example, leading for a short time but lagging behind otherwise.
>>78885330
Itt: nerves liberal as who have a shit country self sooth over another
Stay liberal idiots
>>78901997
ignoring the fact that the examples span from 1948-2004 illustrating that june polls do not give any indication of who will win the election is pure desperation. Would you care to comment on the election of President Kerry in June 2004?
>>78901997
>Ignores all the posts from the last 1 to 3 decades
Yeah okay buddy
>>78885330
>There's no way that the Jews in the media are manipulating poling results to keep Trump voters at home and away from the polls.
>The Brexit vote wasn't at all treated as a near impossibility.
>>78901997
>politics and human nature have changed!
>internet polling is so much more accurate than what we had back then?
And you call us delusional...
>>78901997
Is going back to the BREXIT polling of 17-19 June and the results on June 23rd too long ago for you, since it occurred last week?
>B-But polling has changed!
Yeah but people haven't
>>78885330
>2 POSTS BY THIS ID
>COULD IT BE PAID SUPPORT?
>>78902148
>june polls do not give any indication of who will win the election is pure desperation.
Sure except polls don't exist in a vaccuum, and Clinton has led in the polls consistently so far save for a brief period in April/May right after Trump clinched the nomination.
>Would you care to comment on the election of President Kerry in June 2004?
That's even easier. Polling had Bush and Kerry swapping leads repeatedly all the way up to the election, with Bush holding the lead slightly more often and winning in the end. No surprise there.
Again, not remotely similar to what is happening in this campaign.
>>78894730
What's not edgy about that?
>>78902385
so... how did you like President Thomas Dewey?
>>78902385
Are you really trying to defend your asinine argument? Just concede you didn't really think it through and move on with your life. If you can't do that, then you're no better than an annoying little troll and should fuck off this board immediately
>>78902385
Pretty interesting how the UK stayed in the EU isn't it?
>>78902486
If you have to dig back to the 40's to find evidence of polls being off I think that says more about your argument then mine.
>>78902599
Refer to >>78901374
It's not surprising that Leave won and the polls didn't get it wrong just because some had Remain winning.
>>78885330
>>78886987
>Shilling this hard
how many tendies a month do you get payed?
>>78902716
So you admit that the modern polling, which in the last week almost unanimously predicted a win for remain, is faulty?
Great thanks for finally undermining your own retarded post. Polling is always shitty, and don't try to explain away more recent polling with backwards logic. It just makes you look woefully ignorant
>>78885330
>>78902716
Would you like to address the three posters including myself that called you for ignoring Bush I And Dukakis and Bush I and Clinton or are you just gonna stick with "BUT MUH NARRATIVE MUH INFALLIBLE LOGIC"? You are by far the dumbest poster I've ever replied to
>>78902873
>So you admit that the modern polling, which in the last week almost unanimously predicted a win for remain, is faulty?
No because that's not how it went. Most polls last week were fairly split between Leave and Remain winning, which isn't surprising given how narrow the margin of victory ended up being.
>>78902716
elections only happen every 4 years anon, only 8 years for non-incumbent elections usually.
we showed you several other recent elections...
You are in some serious fucking denial.
>>78903060
>Narrow
>4%
Considering most in the leave party though narrow would mean a 50/50 split, an a lot of other polls started predicting a 4% win for remain (8 point difference) I'm going to call bullshit
And no the VAST majority of credible polls swung for remain. You can't deny any of that
>>78885330
We are, We are, the youth of the nation
>>78902996
Bush ! and Dukakis is kind of similar in that Dukakis led for a time (although shorter than Trump) and Bush led for the remainder and unsurprisingly won.
There's nothing surprising about Clinton either, he took the lead in July, led for the remainder, and won. If June polls aren't accurate according to your logic, what will you fall back to when Clinton is still ahead next month?
Now do you have any other examples to pull out of your ass for me to explain?
>>78903107
This. What does he think? I feel I've had an argument with this poster before over the same fucking detail
>Oh you had to go back more than the last two decades I must be right!
Or maybe there's only been two presidents since 2000? Maybe he's 15 and doesn't realize this. Polls will always be faulty because they don't exist in a vacuum, >>78903060
Just like you fucking said. Idiocy I can ignore but blatant ignorance and pretending you're infallible and admitting no fault is unforgivable. Kill yourself
>>78903358
So you're going to ignore all the Brexit followups?
>>78903107
None of your examples proved anything. In pretty much every case the outcome was exactly as the polls said it would be.
You're arguing that the polls are inaccurate and therefore not worth considering but most of your examples disprove that.
>>78903358
Face it you're trying to debate hard facts, with a shitty OPINION. You have no facts of your own, just your opiniated "oh but that's narrow oh but that's outdated oh but he really unsurprisingly won" everyone else called you on it, admit you're wrong, move on
>>78903471
the Dewey poll was 16 points off and it was only a few weeks prior.
A few weeks prior to Brexit polls were 10 points off.
Tell me exactly why I should think Clinton with her 10 point lead has a 99% chance of winning?
your infallible (((polls))) seem to only be accurate on the day of the elections...
>>78903509
My argument is that the polls are correct in the vast majority of cases and that the polls right now are saying that Clinton will win. Ergo, Clinton will probably win.
You are the one arguing Trump will win in spite of the polls for some arbitrary reason.
>>78903471
Honestly your undermining your own assertions about June polls there bud. You realize that right? The polls don't mean jack shit. I can show you a picture of newspapers saying Truman lost and you'd still find a way to dispute that
Also polling is done predominantly through the use of solely landlines so tell us again how polling is drastically different than the 1940s?
Lads, fear not.
The kikes said that Brexit would lose and look how that turned out. THERE ARE MILLIONS OF SILENT PEOPLE WHO DON'T TAKE PART IN ONLINE MEME POLLS.
Seriously, the kind of person to waste their fucking time taking a poll online is the same kind of person who votes Hillary and Remain.
>>78903603
Can you please show me where I said that?
>>78885330
How does it look different than any of the previous two times that this has occured? The funny thing is, notice how there is a dramatic change in voting patterns as soon as Trump matches Hillary. It's almost like the media starts ramping up anti-Trump press as soon as it's close. It's shameless, and once things start ramping up, it will no longer work.
>>78903603
and every other person here is showing you, with fucking charts and everything, that leading a poll in June has historically meant nothing, therefore Clinton leading a poll in June means nothing
YOU
FUCKING
RETARD
>>78903601
>>78903641
The Dewey election is the only example you have given where the polls were off and it was more than 60 years ago.
Sure, you can cling to that one example, plug your ears and insist that Trump will pull off an upset somehow, but that doesn't mean that's what will actually happen come November.
You could also research why the polls were off in that instance and how they changed their methodology since then. But that would pop the bubble of denial you'd prefer to live in.
>>78902385
So nothing to say about Dukakis kicking Bushes ass for 4 fucking months in a row?
>>78903603
To help you, since your slow, my argument is:
1) polls in June historically don't mean jack shit
2) you're wrong about the comparisons with Bush and Clinton vs Bush and Dukakis
3) if you want to study the polling data between more than two presidents or four elections, you're going to have to go back more than 2 decades
4) you're retarded
>>78903779
>and every other person here is showing you, with fucking charts and everything, that leading a poll in June has historically meant nothing, therefore Clinton leading a poll in June means nothing
But she isn't just "leading a poll in June". She is leading in the polls EVERY MONTH except late April/May.
If Trump had consistent lead that he had only just recently lost, your examples of Dukakis and Carter would have some basis. But that isn't what's happening.
>>78903820
Dukakis fucked it all up, badly.
>>78903790
Can you please answer
>>78903703
>>78903603
>>78903509
With some real facts and not your own assertions which literally no one else is supporting?
Either you're the only smart person in the world, or you're wrong. We aren't clinging to anything if the methodology and human nature hasn't changed that drastically since Truman/Dewey?
>>78903820
Dukakis led for a couple of months and then lost the lead, with Bush having the lead for the rest of the time (the reasons for which I won't get into here). That's kind of what happened with Trump in April/May except Trump had the lead for an even shorter period of time.
>>78903790
Brexit happened just a few days ago anon... have you heard the news yet? Leave won
>>78904017
-603 should be 641
>>78903790
>>78903945
>>78904077
Do you have no intention of answering this?
>>78903193
No? Because you realized your desparate straw grasping on the last week of Brexit polling was fucking dumb? Okay
>>78903894
>1) polls in June historically don't mean jack shit
So when do the polls start mattering then? To me, if Clinton has a firm lead for many months, that suggests very good odds she'll win the whole thing.
I'd leave it to you to decide when the polls are worth listening to, but I get the feeling that the answer would be "never unless they favor <my candidate>"
>2) you're wrong about the comparisons with Bush and Clinton vs Bush and Dukakis
How am I wrong? You offer no argument.
>3) if you want to study the polling data between more than two presidents or four elections, you're going to have to go back more than 2 decades
Sure but it'd be better to look at the most recent examples. The only reason to go back that far would be because there are no examples more recent than that which support your argument. Which, as I said, weakens that argument.
>>78904319
Please answer
>>78904209
>>78899800
You are right but on the day the polls said that Remain was at 55% and Leave was at 45%
In politics that's a pretty huge advantage. I was shitting myself on the day because I was certain Leave would lose.
>>78904209
I'm responding to lots of posts in rapid succession. You will have to forgive me if I miss a few or can't respond to each of them in a timely manner.
For Brexit, refer to >>78900014
Polling favored Leave for most of June up until basically the last moment, but even then it was more or less neck and neck which was reflected in the final results.
>>78904319
I think to have a fair and even analysis, youd want to go back further, unless you want to push a broken narrative? You've also yet to contest my fucking fact that it doesn't weaken an argument to go back to 1940 (which wasn't MY original assertion btw) if the methodologies (phone based polling) and human nature haven't drastically changed?
>>78904488
i'm pretty sure they've given up talking to you because it's like talking to a brick wall.
good luck anon, i hope you're not this dense when it comes to your real life issues.
>>78903945
>not just june, every month!
okay Hill-shill #4812934, I'l break this down for you.....
>>78900973
Carter didn't just lead in June, he led in EVERY MONTH LEADING UP TO THAT POINT AS WELL!!!!! CARTER FTW!!!
>>78901121
Bush didn't just lead in June, he led in EVERY MONTH LEADING UP TO THAT POINT AS WELL!!!!! BUSH FTW!!!
b-b-b-ut why didn't they win?
btw, I don't actually think you are a shill. I think you are just retarded. If you ARE a shill then Hillary Inc. should consider increasing their meme defense budget, even if it means selling even more defense secrets to China.
>>78904478
No. 4% isn't neck and neck. The best win for leave was around 2-3% and that was optimistic, even by leave campaigns own standards. The fact that polls UNANIMOUSLY predicted a 4% (aggregate) win for remain means there was roughly a 7-8% difference and I'm being generous for you. That's still a lot. And you're ignoring that point that many other users have made
Also, maybe the fact that you're responding to facts and statistics and so many challenges on your asinine assertions should maybe be a big fucking hint that YOU may be slightly wrong? Youve made several claims about me; all wrong.
>>78885330
Her plan is working perfectly
>>78904620
Can you please explain how challenging his own assertions and calling him on blatant bs using facts versus opinions is "dense"?
You had your chance with Ron Paul. You could have become FREEDOM INCARNATE, but now you're stuck between a rock and a hard place.
Ever since the brexit normies started fearing "first it was this, next it will be trump!" when in reality they should be fearing Hillary. That woman will likely be elected and commit the worst acts in U.S. history.
>>78888995
>woodwork
*basement
>>78904488
>I think to have a fair and even analysis, youd want to go back further, unless you want to push a broken narrative?
If the best example from your argument is from the 1940s, that says to me that polling since then has been largely accurate in predicting the outcome. I don't see any benefit in going back more than half a century.
>You've also yet to contest my fucking fact that it doesn't weaken an argument to go back to 1940 (which wasn't MY original assertion btw) if the methodologies (phone based polling) and human nature haven't drastically changed?
You're assuming polling methodologies haven't changed since the 1940s? That's certainly not the case. They don't simply rely on landlines, that would lead to inaccuracies since many homes don't even have landlines these days. They canvas people and go door to door among other methods. Heck, most polls usually explain their methodology precisely because failing to do so would threaten their credibility.
>>78889376
they seem busier with sports, esp. with such a big basketball season ending.
Also there's less to talk about since both primaries have been no-contests for weeks now.
this'll pick back up with the debates, or sooner if trump manages to get even enough that it pulls the general public's attention to the race.
>>78904675
So you're just repeating the argument that the polls are too far out to be accurate?
I can't technically disprove this even though I disagree, but I will point out that it is almost July and Clinton is still ahead and even widening her lead.
So I'll ask you, when in your opinion do the polls become predictive?
>>78904771
>She barely beat a geriatric Socialist and is now running neck and neck with Adolf Hitler. If this was her plan, it was a shitty one.
And it wasn't her plan. She's going to lose.
>>78904675
you're right his argument is retarded, but still, your examples are of incumbents vs newcomers.
Trump is easily more of a known quantity now than Clinton was in June of '92, because of both brand and greater media coverage.of the primaries.
>>78904988
You know what, I can tell you're not going to give me any facts beyond your opinion, nor are you going to admit your own fallacies, nor are you going to ever address anything related to Brexit with some serious facts other than your own opinion. So I'll teach you how to be gracious and engage in a PRODUCTIVE dialogue.
You've raised lots of good points. While it certainly isn't irrational to go back to the 1940s if you want a FULL snapshot of modern polling vs presidential elections, clinging to one poll with Truman and Dewey does smack of desparation. To be honest I'd be shocked if Trump wins. But you can't even come close to admitting your own fallacies, even when multiple users call you out, some with facts, otherso with taunts. And I'd feel bad for you, except that you honestly deserve all the shit that's going to come raining down with a Clinton presidency because you are no better than the majority of her supporters that post opinions like they are facts, and refuse to even consider an iota of anothers point of view, even when facing credible evidence
I'd feel bad for you, but you just rehash the same shit. Fuck off retard
>>78898081
>Implying it eas ever going to be anything other than Trump losing to Hillary in the general
Republicans habe not been popular with the electorate at large lately, and if you thought Trump would change that you're more delusional than Bernouts.
>>78904695
4% is a pretty fucking small margin of victory by any measure. It means that if a mere 2% of voters had swung the other way then the other option could have won. Just because some polls predicted a result that was not reflected in the ultimate outcome doesn't mean it wasn't a narrow victory, it just means those polls got it wrong. Unfortunately it's too early to do anything but speculate as to why that was.
>>78905162
When Trump is winning shill.
>>78905444
See
>>78905386
Thst was the margin of the win. You ignored (shocker) the difference between the aggregated total of all credible polls the final week. Meaning the polls were off by nearly 8%. But you know this. So I'm done with you. Enjoy never being wrong, just like your great leader Hillary Clinton
>>78905444
Also, still too early? It stopped being early with the final results wtf are you talking about or waiting for ?
>>78898081
>He still believes Trump is going to lose
You guys were adorable back when you were shilling for Rubio too.
>people actually think that Trump will win
>>78887602
Yes, zero unregistered voters will be voting.
>>78885330
>Brexit polls showed remain ahead basically until the end
>trusting the Jewish media lies
Bruh...
>>78885702
But that's the RCP poll average, not a Bloomberg poll.
>>78905444
realities of voting means its very rare that those 2% would still vote but just pick the other. Voting percentages typically reflect enthusiasm of certain ideological groups manifested in turnout; I don't know the % of voters that show up to polls on principal no matter what but I imagine it's half or less.
>>78905386
I don't even understand what "facts" you are looking for. You and others have been providing examples that are supposed to prove that polls are either inaccurate or not predictive of the outcome this far out and I have made arguments as to why the examples are not analogous for one reason or another to the current campaign. We will only be truly certain of the outcome in November, but that doesn't mean that polls right now have no predictive value.
>>78905662
It is too early to understand why the polls got the result wrong. But given the history of inaccurate polling in the UK (you need only look at the 2015 elections for proof of that) it was actually a fairly accurate result comparitively
>>78905940
Literally no one has made that argument at all. Fuck off you goddamn ignorant self absorbed supposedly infallible autist
>>78905722
Not knowing North Dakota doesn't require you to register in order to vote.
>>78906080
Why is it too early tell me WHY you goddamn idiot quit just saying words and then see
>>78906096
>>78906096
Then what argument are you making because you have honestly lost me.
>>78906143
>Why is it too early
Because the pollsters have to analyze what the flaws were in their methodology to determine why the results were off by however much they were. That takes time and it hasn't even been a week since the actual vote.
don't panic yet burgers....
>>78885330
So many times I see polls saying X will win/lose whatever and the results are often different. Who even participates in these things anyway I mean polls just seem too unreliable.
The EU is old news. Donald Trump will become president and he will make America great again with the assistance of the United Kingdom and Common Wealth.
>>78906143
I'll tell you why: not enough people are paying attention yet, only die-hard- political fags really pay attention to something that's months away.
Most voters "tune in" in the weeks prior to the election, or at the debates.
So the numbers now reflect people's general ideas of the two candidates without actually thinking through it and making up their minds, or they are skewed to reflect only the opinions of die-hard pols, and could change dramatically once people who don't have politics as a hobby start paying attention
>>78906424
nevermind, thought u were responding to someone else.
What are American polls like?
Our polls are retarded and give the wrong result literat everytime
If the Jew media doesn't false flag / fool the American people I see no reason why they shouldn't vote for Trump.
Phone polls are the primary way that Gallup collects there data. The call people at home, mid day. Who is at home during that time, fucking around answering phone polls, while the rest of the world is working?
Unemployed welfare niggers and the elderly, AKA Hillary's support core. That is it. Everyone else has shit to do, and even if they do answer a call from Gallup they will likely hang up as soon as they hear that recorded voice.
Nobody has ever held office because they were leading in a June poll.
>>78906521
Our polling as a whole is considerably more accurate than yours for whatever reason. But there are specific pollsters that are known to be inaccurate.
>>78906653
So Trump is actually fucked right now?
Shit..
>>78887369
If HIllary is really offing people back stage, I would vote for her. What an alpha female.
>>78906651
But if what you say is true then surely Gallup would have a history of their polling failing to predict the result.
Does Trump still have a chance to get back? ;_;
>>78906651
I'm self employed and work from home.
they call me all the time.
Luckily I have a pretty good idea who's going to win the election.
protip: not trump
>>78906697
If basically nothing changes between now and November, then yeah he's fucked. He needs to find a way to rebound, his collapse in the polls is probably largely due to his stupid comments about the judge and the Orlando shooting so a good start would be not saying stupid shit all the time.
But this being Trump we're talking about that may well be a tall order.
SUFFOCATION
NO BREATHING
>>78906798
THEY FUCKING DO
>>78900973
>>78901031
>>78901121
>>78901554
>>78901618
>>78901916
All Gallup polls, all showing the eventual loser leading in June.
>>78906932
this. remember, the dude just turned 70, How many 70 year-olds do you know who can reinvent their personalities or temperaments, even if given months to do it? Most couldn't even if it meant they could become president-- old habits just die too hard.
Trump's only forays into dropping the vulgar/spiteful stuff have been intermittent at best, and he continues to go back to it. Unless his family/inner circle find a way to get into his skull that it's change or lose the election, we're gonna see a female in the oval office next Feb 21.
>>78906927
...definitely Trump. ...but I suppose crooked Hilary will walk away from her email server fiasco completely untouched. Meanwhile any normal person would be slammed up in jail for 20 years. ....oh the hypocrisy.
>>78907165
You're looking for arbitrary patterns while ignoring the examples that don't support them.
"These are examples where the candidate who was leading the polls in June did not win the election. Hillary is ahead in the polls in June. Therefore Trump will win."
This is not a coherent argument.
>>78907165
In addition, most of these examples show that Gallup correctly predicted the outcome of the election. So it's not like they are super inaccurate or anything.
>>78907758
Did your shill coordinator suggest this as a response? Because its really weak.
I did not, at any point, suggest that June polls indicate that Trump will win. I am demonstrating that June polls are unpredictive as often as they are predictive. It doesn't mean that Trump will win, but it doesn't mean that Hillary will win either.
>>78907995
Gallup doesn't predict anything, or claim to predict anything. They just collect the data. Only retards like you think that is a prediction of the final result.
>basketball team is losing at halftime
>fuck it, we lost guys lets just go home because the half time score is predictive of the final result
thats how fucking stupid you sound
>>78908173
>I am demonstrating that June polls are unpredictive as often as they are predictive. It doesn't mean that Trump will win, but it doesn't mean that Hillary will win either.
Okay, then I will ask you as I have asked many others. When, in your opinion, do the polls become predictive of the outcome of the election?
As to your basketball analogy, if a team is down by 50 point at halftime, while the game may not technically be over, there is realistically no way they can come back from such a deficit, and so the ultimate outcome of the match is not in question.
Shills and goys alike, when does the god emperor of mankind get to start going into debates with Hill?
>>78908549
Not for a while. The first debate is scheduled for late September.
Both of the conventions will be in July though, so you can look forward to that.
>>78908693
Cheers m8, been quite the drought so far.
May kek provide you many dubs
>>78885330
I'm a #cruzmissle now
>>78908385
>when do they become predictive
They don't. They never do. Even if the final results line up perfectly with the polling results it does not indicate that the poll was predictive, any more so than the half time basketball score is predictive of the winner. Elections are what determine the election results, not polls.
>>78908385
>50 points
We're not talking about a 50 point margin. We are talking about a 6.7 point margin according to OP. If she opens up a 50 point lead then I guess she pretty much has it in the bag, but she's not even close to that.
Also, 50 points at halftime is not insurmountable. Teams have overcome that lead before, though it is unlikely to happen. So, in the basketball analogy, I would say that there is no such thing as an insurmountable halftime lead, and likewise there is no such thing as an insurmountable june lead in a presidential race between two party candidates.
>>78908549
>debates
If Hillary still holds a lead after the debates begin then I will start to lose hope. Its not going to happen though, because she stands no chance in a debate against a nimble navigator like Trump. I doubt she will even debate him, but if she doesn it will be a disaster for her.
https://i.4cdn.org/wsg/1466625675709.webm
>>78892943
>>78885330
eh if poll dictated what would happen then trump wouldnt have got past the first caucus , the brexit wouldnt have happened, national front would be the most popular political group in france and merkel wouldnt have had to try to rig a election to lock out the afd
but i love how optimistic you are OP. like this is the time liberal faggotry didnt taint the way the polling was done so its accurate
>>78908385
>50 points
If Hillary is leading by 50 points and is indicted for high crimes that 50 point lead won't matter much, will it? If she had a unanimous 100% poll lead and she were indicted it still wouldn't matter, would it?
polling is just asking people what they think. Sure, you can't force people to answer, so it's biased towards people who actually care enough to take time to respond. It can mis-sample in other ways and people can lie/change their minds but at the end of the day you're just asking a subset of people what they think and attempting to infer from that what the larger group thinks. It's not like it's a magical formula that is either 100% predictive or 100% shit.
polling is polling, it's not magic.
>>78885330
Anyone else not getting calls from pollsters anymore? I would normally be getting at least 3 calls a week from pollsters but not this year. They called once in October and all my responses were pro Trump and I haven't heard a word since. Registered Republican for over 25 years and I have 2 more registered voters in the house. I don't think they are polling people that have indicated they are pro Trump in previous polls.
>>78885330
Wierd how when hillary drops, trump rises, almost every point on that graph except near the end we can see them both going up. What does this mean /pol/ ?
>>78910038
more and more polling is moving online, for one. It's MUCH cheaper and becoming more respected. You might also live in a state that's not as contested this year..
>>78910119
do you really not understand how these polls work? they ask who you'd vote for if only these 2 people were running in order to get an idea of potential match-ups.
>>78910331
I live in Florida and internet polls haven't replaced pollsters calling people. I know dems in my family that are getting called all the time but I don't know any Trump supporters being polled. Go figure.
>>78909045
>>78909877
The point of the basketball analogy was not the amount of points but just to illustrate how a competition can be "over" even when it is not technically finished.
Similarly, if the current margins in polls continue to hold or widen in Hillary's favor over the coming months, then there will really not be any doubt as to what the outcome of this election will be.
If the polls are still Hillary +10 in October, Trump's only recourse will be to pray for a miracle.
