Is the bubble about to pop? Econbros help me out
>>75610659
They can't hike the rates, they're just talking shit.
It's literally Depression 2.0 if they pull this shit, they're more likely to run NIRP
>>75610659
Yes, the stock market is in a big, juicy bubble.
>>75610659
Just when Obama is about to leave.
Clearly not biased at all.
>>75610659
They're holding it off, weaponizing the economic crash so they can drop it at the right moment to assume full control
Any chances of deflation if the bubble pops?
I'm heavy on cash at the moment and would love to buy up a bunch of shit at depressed prices.
>>75610659
Lets see, yeah it syncs up with China conquering the and the world back when in depressions, along with ISIS attacking in Ramadan before brexit, also Zika outbreak at the Olympics.
The columns of dates need to be moved to the right.
>>75610659
>>75610816
>>75611054
>inflation edging towards 2%
>unemployment <5%
>literally the closest to the Fed's mandate in history
There's no excuse not to hike. And no it's not a conspiracy.
>>75611252
Not really, you'd only see sustained deflation in an economy facing a severe structural misalignment (Europe, Japan). The US doesn't have either shaky banks (Europe) or zombie corps/demographic issues(Japan).
>>75611370
>these made up numbers
>>75611252
Wait till after they announce the hike.
The most likely scenario is deflation, followed by a drop in gold and silver.
Buy it up after it reaches 1k to 1100, and silver at 13 to 15. The bubble will most likely have a delayed pop, which gives you time to bank some PM's before the crash and Weimar inflation.
Don't invest in energy or mining unless you can sit on it for a while.
Other than that, keep a diverse portfolio, including cash, and PM's.
Biotechnology might drop pretty quick when the free money runs out, when they hit bottom is the time to buy, if the companies exist without bankruptcy. I would sell biotechnology when they announce a hike.
>>75611669
>don't agree with it
>must be made up
Fuck I sold all my gold months ago. FUCK.
>>75612333
I'm not sure what part of the US you live in but even in top tier cities unemployment is everywhere.
>>75610659
Yes it's about to burst. When Trump is elected it's crash and International Jewry will be exterminated by Based Assad & Putin
>>75612490
so buy it back at the same price...
Obama isn't going to let it pop on his duration.
>>75612490
Buy food and guns you retard along with survival, medical, botanical books.
>>75612333
The problem is that if you follow the financial markets. The market is completely inflated based mostly on companies buying their own stock by getting loans at 0-.25%. The moment the hike continues the market will basically colapse just for the fact that has been running on cheap money for years.
>>75612558
Unemployment is tricky to define/measure (i.e. U3 vs U6), so it can be a bit misleading. But it's unlikely to be like 20%
>>75612806
No corporation is borrowing that low, https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AAA
I agree though, a gradual rate normalization will inevitably constrain corporate buybacks and lead to a market correction. But maybe 10% not a complete collapse, if only because it'll happen everywhere.
>>75611370
>>unemployment <5%
HAHAHHAHAHAHAHA
>>75613208
Yes, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
I agree though that can understate things >>75612837
>>75611252
No lol, expect them to double the money supply or something retarded when shit hits the fan, even negative rates won't save them
>>75613350
>jobs created are part-time low-paying jobs
>official unemployment rate doesn't count people who aren't looking for a job because they've given up
>>75614296
This.
Conservatively I'd say double digits at least. Worst case scenario I'd say is about 25%. Especially when you take jnto account the retired, disabled, too young, or too old.
>>75611252
Wait, is my advice.
What we're about to see could very well rival Japan in the 90s (a roughly 20 year rollercoaster of plummeting share prices) or America in the great depression (~75% drop over 3 years), I'm inclined to think that it will be closer to the depression given that Japan had room to move it's interest rates down, which the fed can't really do and boomers are basically done with their borrowing while millenicucks can't afford to, and the fact that Japan had no insane private and public sector debt like USA. It seems logical that we're going to see a reversion to the historic mean price of the market, which happens all throughout history.
The best measure of an overvalued market is corporate equities to GDP, as as of August 2015 the US share market was at 129%. The 65 year mean is about 69%. There is no way the fed can keep this house of cards going forever, they only think they can, or they realize the nature of this giant ponzi scheme. You probably want your money more or less out of shares, listed property trusts and precious metals before the crash, then, ease back in when you feel like buying up, there'd be nothing worse than a fall turning from 50% to 75% when you think the worst is over.
>>75614585
True, but it would be mitigated as long as the dollar is still used as a reserve currency. We can literally print our way out of debt, making more debt, and pay off our debts.
The house of cards only topples when other countries stop buying dollars as a hedge against loss, or if oil is traded in less and less dollars.
Oh wait...
No
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-cjqjvDJO0
Give it up Peter It's literally never happening
>>75611342
>inb4 Bill dies before general elections
>>75614985
Or as soon as sovereign defaults start happening, which is inevitable
>>75615126
I hate this uncharted territory.
A domino effect of defaults scare the shit out of me. Nobody wins.
Bumping. I'm not an expert but I read a lot of econ rumblings.
Ask me things.
>>75613892
>>75614296
>>75614511
The broadest definition of "unemployment" puts it at <10%: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
I agree though, the labor force participation rate is unusually low and that's a cause for concern.
Inb4 jew shill etc. Not a fan of all Fed chairs being jews.
>>75614585
>I'm inclined to think that it will be closer to the depression given that Japan had room to move it's interest rates down
Japan already has negative interest rates though, only the rate paid on some bank reserves is >0%
>which the fed can't really do
The Fed funds rate is >0, i.e. higher than Japan
>boomers are basically done with their borrowing while millenicucks can't afford to
Very possible, the millenials don't seem to be borrowing much
>and the fact that Japan had no insane private and public sector debt like USA
Japan's debt to GDP ratio is about 2x higher than the US
![o-HOUSE-PRICES-CANADA-570[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/T9g7Vq8.jpg "o-HOUSE-PRICES-CANADA-570[1].jpg")
There is a worldwide real estate bubble fueled by low interest rates in FED funds since 2008
You can bet your ass there is a shitstorm coming
>>75616879
But the BoC has maintained slightly higher rates than rhe Fed, yet Canada has a much more overheated housing market.
It's because of foreign capital flows not overnight rates.
>>75614511
I should add that
>>75616521
Doesn't include people not in the labor force (retirees etc.), if you include them it's very possible to get 25% or greater.
>>75616879
Canada is so unbelievably fucked because of all the fucking gook investors that buy up properties in Canada. They're likely doing it to launder money. I love it; when that bubble pops it will show how much of a retarded cunt Trudeau and all the other leftists are.
>>75610659
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-29/china-sends-yellen-another-warning-fixes-yuan-lowest-over-five-years
an important article
>>75616521
322 million population in the USA
10% (probable unemployment) is 32 million.
24% (population under 18) 77 million
14.5% (65 and over) 46 million
(Retired and collecting social security) 43 million
(Disabled and collecting social security) 10.8 million
Idk man, it really doesn't look good. Granted, some of those categories aren't exclusive to each other, and may share people.
Can you imagine the Healthcare or insurance sectors taking a hit? Most of these recipients will be on medicare or medicaid, or if too young, on state coverage.
A downturn could mean real trouble.
>>75616875
>>75616875
Negative rates are probably not going to be effective, you can bring a horse to well of cheap money, but you can't make it borrow.
And I was talking about Japan 20 years ago when they had wiggle room to deal with their collapse. Not now under abenomics and their fucked situation where their central bank is the issuer of almost all gov debt.
![global_real_estate_bubble_index_bubble_index_score_chartbuilder1[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/D8wJN0U.png "global_real_estate_bubble_index_bubble_index_score_chartbuilder1[1].png")
>>75617030
Yeah, my point is that you can borrow money in USD at lower rates and invest it on Canadian real estate
>>75617632
All sources were quick Google including:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/OASDIbenies.html
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/
>>75617754
You could yes, but people don't do USD carry trades in a substantial enough number to drive prices vs just directly buying property.
>>75610659
>Is the bubble about to pop? Econbros help me out
It will pop if trump wins, and the economy will turn to hell, they did this same shit in Egypt when the non kosher candidate won.
>>75618098
It's always going to pop. With QE and rate hikes from near 0% interest, they get to pick when.
>>75617632
>>75617809
This is a good point! See >>75617140
You can of course include more people in the labor force (i.e. the denominator for calculating unemployment), and deciding where to draw the line is hard.
>Most of these recipients will be on medicare or medicaid, or if too young, on state coverage.
Yeah, any cuts to medicare/caid or social security would be very destabilizing, especially as they're almost directly passed through the system.
>A downturn could mean real trouble.
It could yeah, and any cuts would themselves be recessionary.
Only 1 post by OP....
>>75617635
>Negative rates are probably not going to be effective, you can bring a horse to well of cheap money, but you can't make it borrow.
100% agreed. It's a bad sign, and reflects very poorly on the future, when companies don't have any use for free money. This reflects either total unproductivity or future uncertainty, neither good.
>central bank is the issuer of almost all gov debt
I'm not sure it's quite that bad, but yeah Japan's weird. Check out how much of the stock market the BoJ now owns.
>>75618238
That's the problem though. We never make the cuts, and haven't paid on the principle in decades. We should have taken action when the debt started ballooning in relation to GDP.
If other nations lose faith in the dollar we won't have any choice but to cut.
Last year at the review they were talking about how it was inevitable to switch to negative interest rates. She was clearly dancing around it saying how they were focused on improving minority and female work force participation.
>>75617030
>It's because of foreign capital flows not overnight rates.
>>75617276
>Canada is so unbelievably fucked because of all the fucking gook investors that buy up properties in Canada. They're likely doing it to launder money. I love it; when that bubble pops it will show how much of a retarded cunt Trudeau and all the other leftists are.
no. there's data out there that's hard to fish out, but foreign money is about 3% of vancouver purchases.
it's canadians. we're literally this retarded.
we didn't get much of a correction in '08 because the gov't allowed 0% down, 40-year amortization mortgages after the crash.
we have the canadian mortgage and housing corp, which basically is publicly funded and provides banks insurance against mortgage default.
think fannie mae and freddie mac times 2.
>>75618536
>We should have taken action when the debt started ballooning in relation to GDP
Yeah we should've. Unfortunately we didn't and now there's a large underclass (blacks, hispanics etc) completely dependant.
The best way out is to accept a somewhat higher rate of inclation coupled with a freeze on spending growth.
>If other nations lose faith in the dollar
Won't happen, most other first-world countries are in a similar boat and aren't reserve currencies. USD is the last to go down.
>we won't have any choice but to cut
Yeah but at that point the financial system will be in chaos
>>75610816
Gonna happen sooner or later. Longer they delay it the worse it will be
>>75618608
>improving minority and female work force participation.
So tired of SJW trash
>dancing around it
Yeah next recession it's pretty likely
>>75611370
Hey look a kike
>>75618796
Oh interesting, I'd love to see the data! I don't have any hard evidence about foreign purchases desu. I've been looking for some evidence either way.
But yeah CMHC is fucked up, and worse is basically free money for the banks.
>>75619094
>Hey look a kike
Nah, just work in the field. GTKRWN
>>75619347
Only if your bank is the Federal Reserve
>>75618796
>no. there's data out there that's hard to fish out, but foreign money is about 3% of Vancouver purchases.
WRONG
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-23/chinese-buy-one-third-of-vancouver-homes-national-bank-estimate
Fed will suddenly hike rates to make President Trump look bad.
Trump closes down Fed and arrests all the jews there.
Money printed at US Treasury only. Inflation stopped dead in its tracks.
America Becomes Great Again
>>75619347
>Does this mean I will be able to go to my bank, take out a $1000 loan and pay back $900?
Technically you take a loan out and the bank pays you interest on it. And you pay interest on any money you have in the bank.
But the first option will never happen
>>75619347
No, or at least not yet, but it means banks can over short periods of time. That lowers your borrowing cost, and if the overnight rate goes low enough than eventually yes.
>>75619511
read up on that estimate and the methodology
it was literally a couple guys writing on some napkins making up numbers
i'm as racist as they come, but you cucks will believe anything if it means you get to be racist
>>75610659
>Econbros help me out
We don't need a rate hike, in fact it's terrible for the economy. But we'll get one anyway, because Jews.
>>75619511
>"back of the envelope calculations" by National Bank of Canada.
lol i know some of those back-office guys personally
they're a shitshow
>>75619020
To be fair they want to get welfare recipients, aka minorities and single moms, on lower benefits and on full time so they get health benefits.
The country is running out of money so it makes sense to get the people on benefits on a private companies benefits. Even if the coverage and plans are garbage shit tier, it discredits them from govt benefits.
>>75618536
>If other nations lose faith in the dollar we won't have any choice but to cut.
>If
I've always heard this ominous warning, but no one has of yet explained to me what would actually prompt this to happen. If the multiple debt ceiling crises + Downgrading of the US's AAA rating over the past several years didn't do it just what the fuck actually would?
>>75619617
I have provided a source for my claim that I believe to be legitimate, but I can be convinced if you can provide a credible source for your claim. If you're unable to do so, then you're full of shit and can fuck off.
>>75619511
>>75619617
>>75619704
Is there any reliable data out there? It seems like there isn't enough to say either way.
To be fair thebarticle also cites an extrapolation of a survey.
>>75619818
Haha fair point, it's not all bad
>>75619826
AFAIK it would require the petrodollar to be replaced with another currency.
>>75619832
>To figure out what an equivalent purchase volume for buyers from China in Toronto and Vancouver might be, Routledge looked for “useful survey data from which we can draw reasonable hypotheses” and found it in a Financial Times multiple choice survey of 77 high net worth and affluent mainland Chinese individuals, “admittedly not a statistically significant sample size,” he acknowledged. The survey found that of those who purchased residential real estate outside China, 33.5 per cent had done so in the United States (mainly in New York, Los Angeles, and also San Francisco) while 11.7 per cent bought in Vancouver and 8.3 per cent in Toronto.
They admit that they can't even into statistics but the media runs with the story anyways because they're desperate to report something that people want to hear
>>75619826
Nothing would, USD's the currency of the largest economy, the world's reserve currency, and what the most important commodity (oil) is traded in.
Even if people wanted an alternative there's no orher currency that would fit the bill except maybe EUR
>>75618894
Agreed, except there has been recent news about competing reserve currencies being bought (euro, yuan, etc) and dollars being sold.
Not to mention the recent uptick in nations not falling for the petrodollar meme.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-exclusive-idUSKCN0VE21S
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2003/feb/16/iraq.theeuro
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/imf-backs-yuan-in-reserve-currency-club-after-rejection-in-2010
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/14/news/economy/us-treasury-debt-selloff-2015/
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/16/news/economy/us-debt-dump-treasury/
>>75610659
You're a fucking idiot if you think they're gonna hike before the Presidential election
They've been talking hike for years now saying "I'm rly serious this time goys"
They won't fucking do it to risk going full Trumpsreich
If he wins they'll do it Q1 2017 so that dumb goyim blame Trump for an economic crash
If Clinton wins they'll do it Q2 2018 and cook up a boogerman to distract normie scum from Fed fuckery tanking the economy
Cap this
>>75619846
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/05/22/family-jewels/
and he's sourcing the vancouver real estate board who has plenty to gain from promoting the story that the chinese are buying everything
>>75610659
China produced nearly eight times more steel than any other nation in 2015
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/map-china-produced-nearly-eight-times-more-steel-than-any-other-nation-in-2015-2016-5
>>75619558
Why would anyone even bother having a personal savings or checking account if they go to negative interest rates?
I guess they could try to force the issue since so much banking is done online now. But so far prepaid cards are still a thing. I could just cash my check and buy one and pay my bills online with it. I can't see them outlawing or pushing out prepaid cards since the rumor is they get so much free money from them. People spend it and have like .38 cents left on it and just toss it in the trash since it's not worth it. All the people using them adds up. thats money the card managers get for free.
>>75610659
this has all been so that when the final blow comes, the system dies with no chance to reemerge.
you would be amazed how much effort went into seeing that this system dies and wealth dissolves with no hope to grow up again.
that only a new system can save us as the old one is failed and dead. the people never knowing it was engineered this way all along.
>>75620144
SDRs from the IMF aren't themselves reserves though. And yes some countries do sell (some) oil in other currencies, but not the largest producers.
As for treasuries, look how much those sellofs moved yields--practically none. No other country has anywhere near as liquid a market as the US, not even the Euro. And while that's not directly fx related you need something to park your money in while holding it (unless you're holding it at the fed)
>>75620132
>Nothing would, USD's the currency of the largest economy, the world's reserve currency, and what the most important commodity (oil) is traded in.
Careful with those words, its very much possible for the petrodollar to be replaced with something else. And there are countries out there right now trying.
>>75620323
>Why would anyone even bother having a personal savings or checking account if they go to negative interest rates?
The reason is to force people to spend their money as quickly as they get it to keep our consumer economy going.
>>75619846
It's really hard because the Chinese are money laundering, and Canada/banks know about it but look the other way. I'd say look for all the property owners with the last names Yang/Wang/Dang/Dong/Dilddly/Fong, and figure out which ones are foreign nationals, but they probably have shell companies and other tricks to hide their criminal activity.
>>75620043
I didn't ask you to criticize the Bloomberg article. I asked you to provide a better source that supports your view. It seems you are unable to do that. How can you POSSIBLY say that it's only 3% foreign money when you have nothing that supports that? Because you're retarded, thats why.
>>75620227
an oldfag /pol/ack appears
top tier post lad
>>75620227
They did hike once to about 0.25% back in December (which was widely see as a blunder after the fact).
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/17/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html
I think a rate hike is probably in the cards this summer, but I still don't understand the value of it. Growth is still abysmal and inflation is still pretty anemic.
>>75620415
Yeah, Saddam and Gaddafi both tried a gold-for-oil trade system. For some reason their attempts failed.
>>75620271
Very interesting, thanks!
>>75620552
They were small fish, the problem will be when either A. A strong nation pulls it off, or B. a bunch of nations all dump the dollar at the same time, we cant bomb everyone at the same time.
>>75620519
>inflation is pretty anemic
It's really not, once you exclude energy (i.e. core PCE)
>>75616512
Will the crash be soon enough to escape running up my credit cards?
>>75620404
While I agree about liquidity, I'm suggesting that the liquidity is entirely dependent on faith in the dollar. If the current trend is to sell more oil in Euros, it will eventually become less profitable to hold dollars. Speculation will inevitably cause selloffs if there's instability in the dollar.
I'm not suggesting it will happen, merely seeing a trend that could cause some real problems if it continues. If BRICS and OPEC decide on euro or yuan, it's ogre for the stable dollar.
>>75620421
>makes claim that chinese are buying vancouver and sources shit on a napkin
>i show him it's actually shit on a napkin
"hurr durr you need to prove it's NOT the chinese buying!"
>>75620415
>>75620552
>>75620785
Outside of the US(largest oil producer), Saudi Arabia is the only one that would have a material impact on petrodollars. Russia may switch to the ruble, but China and Canada won't.
In any case, even if the petrodollar were to be totally replaced, it would only have a moderate impact and wouldn't tangibly affect USD's reserve status.
>>75620519
They won't fucking do it m8
5 seconds in google reminds us how they've been talking about getting srs for literal years and fuck all has happened
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-economy-poll-usa-idUSKBN0GD18I20140813
Its at the very least not happening until after the election, the question becomes thereafter when it happens and how its framed after
>>75620510
neo/pol/ a shit
rarely find actual threads anymore, mostly teenagers other and underage bands memeing WOW MAKES U THINK WHAT DID HE MEAN BY THIS PRAISE KEK HOW CAN THEY EVEN COMPETE
>>75620322
>>75610659
UK and EU urged to act on Chinese steel dumping after US raises duty on imports
Unions say Britain and EU must ‘stop treading on egg shells’ and follow lead of US which has raised tariffs to 522%
Britain’s steel trade body and unions have called on the UK and the EU to take urgent action to stop Chinese steel dumping, after the US government increased tariffs to more than 500%.
In an escalation of the trade spat, the US has raised its tariffs on imports of cold rolled steel from China to 522% from 266%, citing a refusal to cooperate with anti-dumping investigations. By comparison, the EU has imposed provisional tariffs on China of 16% for cold rolled steel, which is used to manufacture cars and appliances and in construction.
The UK is one of 14 countries that have been blocking EU plans to impose tougher sanctions on cheap Chinese steel imports. Sajid Javid, the business secretary, has said it would not be right for the EU to scrap regulations known as the “lesser duty rule”, which some countries want to end in order to allow higher tariffs on Chinese steel.
Gareth Stace, director of UK Steel, welcomed the US move. He said: “The United States has quickly identified the problem with China dumping steel and imposed effective and robust trade barriers. The EU has been slower and the result is we’re still haggling over tariffs and action to prevent unfairly traded Chinese steel. Britain and the EU need to stop treading on egg shells and take decisive action following America’s impressive lead.”
A spokesman for the Community trade union said that unfairly traded Chinese steel was still hurting UK and European steel producers.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/18/uk-and-eu-urged-to-act-on-chinese-steel-dumping-after-us-hikes-duty-on-imports
>>75617276
But its the current year...
>>75620969
It's very unlikely. The big 5 are the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and Canada.
The US obviously isn't trading in euros, nor is Canada. Saudi Arabia is a close ally, and China is too dependent on the USD to do anything. Only Russia has the means and motivation. And without the others it doesn't have much leverage.
In any case, would USD or treasury liquidity decline if the petrodollar were to eb eliminated? Not really. Look at what happened when China liquidated a chunk of its treasuries, yields barely changed.
>>75621087
I think he's just asking for a source for your claim of 3%, like an article or link that explains why it's 3%.
I don't believe it's a case of trying to prove a negative.
Here, I did a google for you.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/foreign-buyers-snapping-up-newer-condos-over-older-ones-in-toronto-vancouver-cmhc
It seems as though your 3% figure might be right across the nation, but certain areas are up to 10% and they are mostly metropolitan, like vancouver and Toronto.
Man I remember when I was a kid, could actually earn decent interest on a savings account, like 5%. And this wasn't even THAT long ago. Back in the 90s.
They should go back up. But there are a lot of reasons they'll probably never be allowed to.
>>75612738
Like Bush didn't let the 08 crash happen while he was president
>>75620421
>Because you're retarded, thats why.
>Foreign investors made up four percent of buyers, according to this latest REBGV survey.
http://www.straight.com/news/699891/poll-shows-complex-vancouver-real-estate-market
>>75621544
He really didn't, the 08 crash was nothing compared to what it could've been. We should have gotten it out of the way then, but nobody could've forseen the amount of manipulation the fed was prepared to undergo
>>75620227
That doesn't make sense, how could Trump get blamed for an economic crash happening just after his inauguration? If anything Obama would get blamed.
>>75621457
>>75621681
reply
>>75621184
>In any case, even if the petrodollar were to be totally replaced, it would only have a moderate impact and wouldn't tangibly affect USD's reserve status.
How so? If everyone needed a different currency to buy oil would have dire consequences for the dollar.
Remember access to cheap oil is what separates 1st world countries from 3rd world countries.
>>75621750
>saudi arabia is a 1st world country
No.
>>75621438
China is only dependent because of how industrialized they are, pertaining to their cheap labor.
Recently they've been showing signs of slowing down, and are moving towards a more service based economy, like the US.
I can see a scenario where China slowly dumps USD, pushes BRICS into petro yuan, and starts price fixing gold to hedge against losses.
As far as a loss of liquidity, there would be some, yes, after a bout of instability. People will start to spend less, save more, which is painful in a downturn, at least nationally, I will admit a bit of ignorance on the global effect of consumer faith in the USA.
This is purely a hypothetical scenario based loosely on current trends.
>>75621704
>CONFIDENCE IN USD PLUMMETS AS US ELECTS NEOFASCIST PRESIDENT DICTATOR DRUMPF
>inothernewsfedraisesinterestrates6gorrillionpercent
Its like you don't even understand falseflag
>>75621856
Having lived in the middle east Jordan, and the UAE, I can assure you Saudi Arabia is a 1st world country that doesnt act like it.
Also they have more money than your country could ever hope to have.
>>75621750
It really wouldn't. USD isn't held primarily for oil but because of the centrality of the US economy to the rest of the world. Compare EUR to USD, as direct a comparison as you can get (two large/advanced economies, one petrodollar one not), and it's not like EUR is worthless.
>>75621681
>Foreign investors made up four percent of buyers, according to this latest REBGV survey.
4% of buyers does not necessarily mean 4% of properties.
A rich 4% could buy 10% of the property.
>>75617276
>when that bubble pops it will show how much of a retarded cunt Trudeau and all the other leftists are.
The Chinese have been doing this for many, many years, though, and long before Trudeau got into politics
>>75622007
China's already dumped 100 billion+ or their reserves to defend the yuan peg, and it didn't materially affect either the dollar or treasuries, so swiftly dumping USD didn't do much.
Like let's say they converted all their dollars into gold. Gold prices would shoot up, dollars would be down a bit, and there would be some arb opportunities. But nothing catastrophic.
>>75622048
Only an idi- oh wait.
Recessions are years in the making, anyone who believes an economy crashes because a government official is elected and not that it was his predecessor's failure is a moron.
>>75622082
I'm not saying that everyone would jump ship overnight, I'm saying that eventually everyone would dump their dollar holdings for the petrocurrency as the dollar wouldnt be needed.
Were at the point now where the US really isnt needed for much other than protecting a few vassal states.
>>75622218
somalis are buying up 80% of the real estate in vancouver
i heard it on global
>>75622245
only chinese people buy property
>>75622495
>Were at the point now where the US really isnt needed for much other than protecting a few vassal states.
That's a very strange thing to say about the world's largest economy/market,l
>>75622381
I was proposing a perfect storm scenario of China doing all three.
It would most certainly add to the yuan's longevity as a reserve, and allow closer competition with the euro and GBP as well.
I'm admittedly a bit of a doomsayer though, and think any combination of those three could lead to war.
>>75622566
Somalis?
I didn't think they had money. Source?
>>75619511
>Vancouver has long been a target for housing critics who say offshore buyers, many of whom purchase homes as investments and leave them empty, are pushing prices beyond levels locals can afford and creating ghost towns in neighborhoods.
This has been going on for years. I lived out there and everybody knew that the Chinese bought property only to get residency status, and then they'd fly back to China and leave the house unfurnished and unoccupied. I don't know why our government allows this.
>>75622416
Recessions are literally an interest hike in the making at this point
All it takes is spooking the bull that the easy money gravy train is screeching to a halt and techbubble 2.0 pops and all hell breaks loose
The American public more easily consumes simplistic narratives of good and evil than market jewry
also stop being tripfag cancer we have IDs on this board now friend
>>75610659
>>75610816
>>75611370
>>75619014
They said they would increase it every month after the December increase.
The Fed kept saying we'll have to wait for next month
April's job numbers scared everyone. Just wait for May's numbers this Friday, the Fed will delay the increase once again.
>>75622860
And with the delayed increases, it just makes the economy can't handle an increase
>>75622659
By the time this happens the US wont be the largest market in the world, and would be on the decline.
Especially once the Jews start leaving in mass due to the unrest in the streets while taking their billions with them.
>>75622988
I disagree. The USA is head and shoulders above the rest of the world in terms of economic size.
Even the doomsday scenario I proposed would take 10-20 years to implement effectively.
>>75622753
Are you really this retarded?
Haha almost got me, there. I know you're trolling. Nice one.
>>75622753
i made that one up because people seem to believe anything
ty for asking for source, you restore my faith in humanity.
>>75623111
There is only 7 trillion difference between the US and china with the gap rapidly closing. 20 years ago fuck yeah we were head and shoulders above everyone else, today not so much. Also you speak as if I said this would all happen overnight.
I speak this as a person who travels abroad alot and has to work in other countries and has seen what economies that are on fire look like.
>>75622860
>>75622937
Very likely, the fed has become incredibly trigger-shy. Probably only one this year.
>>75623123
I'm admittedly ignorant on how the Somali economy works. Isn't it just kidnappings and piracy?
I asked for a source out of curiosity. I'm guessing they ransom some seamen and blow wads in condo's?
>>75623284
I wouldn't trust anything from China.
Just wait for President Trump to put them in their place
>>75623326
Aid from the US that gets stolen
>>75623284
China will end up like a larger Japan, a heavily indebted country with poor capital allocation (zombie companies) dragging down their economy and very poor demographics.
Just look at the number of hinese companies whose profits are equal to their debt servicing costs.
The difference between China and Japan is that China has become financialized much faster, with an immature understanding of e.g. popular structured finance products (WMPs) that will likely cause a blowup in the future.
>>75611370
>the one person who talks sense
>is labeled a kike, uncredited, etc
/pol/ the banks aren't going to cause a happening
>>75623284
A source would have saved me a trip to google, but you're right, it's only a difference of 7 trillion.
But there is a trend of increasing US, chinese, russian, Indian and British growth as a percentage of world gdp.
I'd wager the current economic warfare is less about survival and more about market share after the inevitable crash.
The countries with increasing world gdp% will have the most to gain in terms of overall market dominance.
These are just projections, and I realize they should be taken with a grain of salt.
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php
>>75622760
does Canada have squatter laws? Here in America if you live in an unoccupied house for 7 years without the owner noticing and calling police the property becomes yours.
My neighbor successfully used a squatter law on an empty lot with no one claiming it. He kept his work trailers parked on it including a personal boat and the city just signed the deed to the plot to his name after 3 years.
>>75623766
yep, pol's retarded. this is the best time to hike rates
>>75623766
T-thanks senpai, you're the b-best
>>75623766
>what is the great depression
>>75623583
I'll admit that China's current economy is doing "good" however their future is a wild card at best.
The chinese economy could become america v2.0 or right back to where they were pre-nixion.
>>75623798
An interesting way to look at it.
Does this mean I should take more out of my bank?
>>75624021
It really is! Use the formula below to benchmark how close the fed is to its mandate. http://www.frbsf.org/our-district/press/presidents-speeches/williams-speeches/2012/february/williams-federal-reserve-mandate-best-practice-monetary-policy/#_ftn10
Guys I'm not an econ genius but I smell something fucky when I see how the stock market is at record highs, our debt is at record highs, our unemployment is claimed to be at 5% yet I know fucktons of people who can't find jobs. Is 2008 about to happen again? Can somebody break it down Barney style for me. I have tens of thousands in cash but hardly any assets. What should be my strategy here?
>>75624270
Yeah China's a tricky case. Personally I think they're beinng way too sloppy with their financialization, which will bite them in the future.
The bubble won't pop due to the Fed funds rate going up a quarter of the percent. Last FOMC release, they hinted that they were entertaining raising the rates in case shit hit the fan elsewhere and the effects transitioned the US. What is going to cause this bubble to burst is either
A) Bad debt from China sending them into a lost decade or
B) Deutchse Banke going kaput due to their overleverage and their inability to sustain banking operations in a NIRP system. My bed is on the latter of the two, as we will likely see european equities sell off 7- 10% in the next three months due to terrorism fears after Euro 2016 is bombed to shit by ragheads. Smart thing to do is to buy some VXX, as right now we should be seeing a vix in the 15 to 17 range given future near term uncertainty, but that's just an opinion.
>>75624522
A good point.
I've been largely neglecting the insolvency problems with DB. We've got too many hotspots and not enough firefighters. Maybe canada can send some south africans?
>>75624429
See >>75616521
Unemployment is tricky to define correctly, and more or less could be said to be ~10% if you define it broadly. Alternatively the people you know are not demographically representative (new grads etc).
If in doubt buy a diversified bond ETF from Vanguard.
>>75624522
Yes, China is likely in trouble, especially around bad debts/WMPs. As is DB, e.g. look at what they had to do with their cocos.
ETNs like VXX can be risky though! They're just promises from a bank somewhere. Hopefully not DB lol
>>75624429
Its because of free money. 0% rates in USA or even negative% rates in Europe. So CEOs are borrowing a bunch and buying back stock in the company, driving the share price higher. That's just one of the games being played causing this massive bubble.
Then there is the real estate bubbles being caused by offshore dirty money being parked in the US:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article69248462.html
>>75624429
1. QE and 0 interest means E-Z money
2. Techbubble 2.0 as E-Z money means shitty investments in memes like twitter than aren't even profitable
3. Fed is tired of not getting their jerkoff, wants to raise rates
4. No more E-Z money means market goes bear, tech 2.0 pops and market corrects
Stay liquid and hedge with small amounts of PMs, bad time to buy into assets as real estate is overvaluated along with stocks
Also go to /k/ and get a nugget I recommend a glock with an extended clip
>>75624429
Stock up on filters and power drinks
Do negative interest rates effect 401k or other retirement savings? Or will it only be for savings accounts?
>>75624954
What is a PM? I'm not a genius, remember
>>75625033
Yes, the overnight rate effects the yield curvez, which depending on what you have in your 401k will either directly or indirectly drive returns.
>>75611370
9/10
Oh, another question, I want to buy a house within the next few years, how long should I wait before I do it? Is a real estate bubble about to pop?
>>75625076
>>75625256
>>75624429
Please don't take any of the advise in this thread including mine, not investment advice etc.
That being said, don't buy products you don't understand. If you think the economy's not so hot, buy a diversified bond ETF, if you think it's good buy a s&p 500 ETF, Vanguard has low fees. Timing the market is hard! If you could do it well you could make a fortune.
But rates are likely to stay flat/go up in the near future, so now's as good a time as any to buy.
>>75625256
As far as real estate bubbles go, no idea man. Very dependent on where you are.
>>75625076
Precious metals.
Gold, silver, etc.
>>75625480
Yeah I take everything on 4chan with a grain of salt but I'm wondering if there is any consensus on certain things, most important to me is I want to buy a house in the near future, I don't want to buy during a bubble, is there anything fucky going on in real estate?
>>75624876
Haha markets bout to be enriched son.
TLDR for Deutshce is that the the more the ECB eases, the harder things get for Detucshe to remain solvent. This also assumes that they don't get rammed up the ass with fines more so than they do in the average year. Given that they fired the head of the integrity for wanting to come clean with cases, it doesn't look good, especially when their derivative exposure could fuck up Europe if they go insolvent. It's one of our top four risks of the year with Chinese bad debt, people realizing Japan is fucked, and a Saudi depegging.
>>75625592
It's hard to say and depends on where. A 2008 style correction is unlikely though, idk maybe 10% at most.
But if you're buying a house you shouldn't be worried about near-term price movements. It's not a speculative investment, you don't need to time the market.
>>75610659
WITH JEWS YOU LOSE
>>75624909
True that, but I'm more looking to short term swing the vix once it pops up to the 20 range. If shit really started to hit the fan when I sold off the vix, I'd maybe look at picking up a few otm eurostoxx puts, but you can play it until it's in front of you.
>>75625647
Becoming a Somali pirate is looking like a better investment every day.
There's no exchange rate on ransom, and you can control supply and demand.
>>75625647
If you look at DB's CET1/leverage ratios they're pretty shaky (especially if there's more large fines) but they have the implicit backing of the german govt so I wouldn't expect any 1b+ fines without the opportunity to raise new capital.
Plus Draghi owes germany over NIRP so the ECB will "provide liquidity" to db if worst comes to worst. China's a powder keg though.
>be a clueless NEET but with 10k in savings
>no idea what to do with it except let it rot in the bank
QUICK, tell me why I shouldn't buy gold bars and use them as a nightstand. Really though, what typically does a dullard with too much money do with it?
>>75625797
Son of a bitch...
>negative interest rates imposed
>banks correct for this with banking and administrative fees on customers who have savings in bank
This is my basic understanding of what it means for little ol me. beyond random house fire and tyrone breaking in and finding it, whats to keep people from just running the banks and taking all they have out?
>>75621856
I've been there. It is.
>1889. The world is ending!
>1914. The world is ending!
>1929. THE WORLD IS ENDING!
>etc.
You guys are are such dumbfucks that you didn't stop with hates, you fucking mummified yourselves in tinfoil.
>>75626020
Inertia, inconvenience, lack of safe storage for cash etc.
But for banks the NIM doesn't need to be positive as long as they can make it up in other ways.
>>75626103
You should reply to someone directly. There are plenty of pragmatic people in this thread.
>>75626103
>mummified in tinfoil
jej
>>75625823
Nah, better to kidnap American. Me and some of the guys from work were bullshitting about this the other day, but just kidnap the head of a cult of personality stock like FB, SCTY, or TSLA, hold them ransom for a couple of days, then let them go while you go long OTM puts in the sector. The SEC would have enough problems going after people who directly shorted the company, leaving you none the wiser. Retarded plan that would backfire immensely, but still worth the laugh.
Property bubble pops when?
A friend of mine believes the Chinese government is going to get really pissed at all the people over there hiding money in property overseas. Once that happens there will be a big price drop as property is dumped to avoid the governments' wrath. I've no idea. Possible?
>>75615442
Cryptocurrency wins.
>>75625806
Idk if VIX is heading to 20, seems like a pretty big swing now that the first round of china worrying's over. What timeframe are you looking at. Otm eurostoxx makes sense though
>>75618796
Spot the gook cunt apologist. Faggot
Canadians aren't the ones paying $1m above asking price
>>75615126
>>75615442
>>75626774
Sovereign defaults aren't really a thing except potentially in Europe. And ETH's more due to the newness/DAO
>>75625797
God damn it!!
>>75625592
Don't listen to anything this faggot >>75625592
has to say he is dropping le blue pills like a motherfucker
Buying a house is entirely a speculative investment.
You're betting on the prospect of the current worth of the property improving over time which is not a fucking guarantee, hence it being goddamn speculative.
You do need to time the market on macro and micro levels.
In the macro sense understand the pulse of the economy. What are mortgage rates going for? Foreclosures? How is the forecast up and down?
In the micro sense understand the neighborhood. Are people jumping ship? Are people piling in? Flight or gentrification? How is the municipality doing? Pension crises or boon?
tl;dr don't listen to this faggot and make an informed decision both short and long term
>>75610904
>juicy
>>75611342
did i miss another economist mag cover?
still prepping for 2018 debacle
>Massive worldwide debt and real estate bubble bursts on the horizon
>The commodity bubble already burst
>Will be as bad or 08' or worse (Probably worse)
>West never recovered from 08'
>This stagnant piece of shit slice in history we find ourselves in is meant to be "the peak of the business cycle"
Fascist and Communist revolutions soon brothers
>>75627053
>>75625592
Yes of course don't buy a house in a neighborhood about to be enriched. Doing your due dilligence is good advice!
But on the other hand you shouldn't be worrying about overnight rates etc., but rather what your loss tolerance is vs your expectation of your local housing market. Borrowing rates will go up gradually, which may depress housing prices, but probably not like 2008
I mean if you're really worried you could hedge it via a real estate etf or something but that would probably be overkill.
>>75626460
BRB. Short TSLA because reasons.
>>75626510
I'm not so sure about the property bubble popping... They are parking their dirty money in real estate for a reason.
>>75626897
I'm looking sometime between July and August, but this is more based off a fuckup in Europe moreso than China. From the calls that I'm sitting through, not a single question has been asked about how the market would react if we start to see coordinated terrorism events in France during the Euros, which is a huge fucking oversight imo. Given that the euros start on the 10th, if we see any major terrorist events in France, there is a pretty big chance that this could swing the brexit vote which happens on the 23rd, especially if the England-Russia game gets hit in the heartland of French muslims, Marseille, on the 11th. Most of the people in my division expect a 5-7% drop in the eurostoxx if we get a brexit, so it's more of a bet on that then anything going wrong with China.
>>75626510
Considering its dirty money that has been funneled through offshore accounts and its out of reach in foreign property investments, I doubt that China can pull those funds back and pop the bubble. Maybe they can cut future funds but that doesn't affect whats already made it through, other than prices not increasing. But not crashing without a pullout.
>>75627577
I'll play devil's advocate.
Do they own enough US assets to cause a big enough correction in the housing market?
Maybe a little speculative overreaction helping it along?
>>75610659
Why is that grandma yellin?
>>75627937
>>75627717
Damn, nice trade if it happens. One of the guys here was convinced it'd be off by 15% on brexit, but that sounds crazy high to me. Around 5 sounds right.
>>75628120
Just like my uncle used to say, "Betting on Muslims to fuck shit up is always guaranteed money." Just hoping they live up to their name.
>>75628228
>>75610659
memoryless faggots in this thread
they'll hike like they do every spring, and walk it back after some bad economic numbers come out.
Cheap money is the Jew's friend. Rates are not going up again in our lifetime.
>>75628361
You guys positioning?
Hoping for brexit myself, personally not professionally. It'd be fun
>>75628778
>>75628602
>>75628602
>positioning
>>75629170
>>75628999
>>75628602
Nah, I don't have that much sway in our department, but I did work with my boss to get a plan ready for when the headlines roll in. Mostly a priority checklist of which stuff to bail on first and which to hold onto initially, no major plans and no active positioning as of yet.
>>75629325
well, russia is the main producer of plat
silver has a better upside value
>>75629325
Edison daminik, Patrick j. Hillery, Peter Johnston are all implicated in selling billions in PM certificates without any physical backing.
Who knows how many were traded.
