I'm not antagonistic here. I'm just trying to redpill those of whom that really think Trump will win. It's simple, states that have voted consistently since 2000 plus Florida give it to Hillary. Why Florida? Well, there's an argument for Gore having won and changing racial demographics. With Virginia allowing two hundred thousand convicted felons I'm including that state, too. Even if Trump won every single remaining swing state it would simply be to fool you.
I do believe that if we don't want to fall into a totalitarian welfare state it is time to consider some form of secession movement. I do not believe that this one party system will be of any use to us. In order to have any say we have to recognize that the American union has failed.
I am ready for Texit
>>72463582
What did the electoral map look like 25 years ago, 35 years, 45 years? Voting patterns change.
>>72463582
Polls show that Texas and Georgia will go blue for Hillary.
Right, they are changing. They are changing blue because of the browning of America. America has forever changed.
Poor bait, but I'll bite. Trump will win Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida. He might even win Colorado. Probably get 55% of popular vote against Hillary. Democrats are secretly terrified of facing Trump in the fall.
>>72463582
If polls in April held true in November, Reagan would have lost in a landslide to Carter. Didn't happen.
>>72463582
Trump is not Bush. Bush lost.
Assuming states with higher primary turnout among Republicans go to Trump, he's already won.
>>72464627
>Assuming states with higher primary turnout among Republicans go to Trump
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
>>72463582
It's a legitimate concern, and I really don't know how this is going to play out. Hillary really might win, something /pol/ will never admit.
What's funny is Trump is likely the best chance the Republicans have to win. Cruz can't even pull in the bible belt, the only place in the country that was supposed to support him. I'm not sure Kasich is even worth mentioning.
>>72463872
That will never happen.
>>72464627
Wisconsin won't go for Trump, not after the NeverTrump movement there. However, Michigan may very well swing to Trump. I also think PA might go Trump's way.
FL is in the bag for Trump.
There are definitely some wild cards though with third party issues, many Sanders supporters perhaps just staying home, and even Johnson running in the lib ticket. It's probably going to be a crazy general.
>>72465532
Yes it will. Hillary is the first candidate in about 20 years to appeal to an urban electorate. The 2016 map will look like nothing you're used to.
>>72463582
that is what the ghey libs said about W Bush.
wah-ha-ha. muh algore.
>>72463582
>hurr durr everyone is either red or blue
Trump is going to dispel this myth once and for all.
It's about the economy, stupid. Obama has had the most anemic growth of any President in history short of possibly Hoover
>>72464627
WI and IA are both solid blue along with the rest of the north east, only way VA goes red is if webb is involved somewhere
>>72466034
That was due to Ralph Nader though. Sanders could fill that role.
>>72464627
Trump has a better chance making NY go red than Commiefornia.
The amount of spics there is just too much for even the Don.
>>72465990
Are you nigger crazy? Obama was THE urban electorate candidate.
>>72465161
She does have a high probability of winning atm, but Trump is catching up. As long as he doesn't say anything about abortion, legal immigrants or women in general, he should be fine. Perhaps also emphasize his anti-globalism stance and make points that can't be refuted.
People keep saying that latinos are deciding this election, but they are not. They are mainly concentrated in CA (which was a democrat state to begin with) and Texas (where the amount of latino Republicans is just enough to get at least 55-60% of the votes for Trump). Other than that, there is Florida, but that state has many Cubas who tend to vote Republican. The important states this decision are WI, MI, PA, CO, NV and OH, which have mostly white middle-class people in them.
>>72466610
You're wrong. Obama had a very similar electorate as Bernie Sanders.
>>72464862
i can all but guarantee they're wrong.
turnout is the #1 indicator of success in an election. the primaries signal to everyone which party has the better turnout and is more likely to win in the general; they provide a tell.
like a self-fulfilling prophecy, in 90% of all elections, at every level of government, the presumed winner gets the votes because people who "know" they're going to vote for the loser just don't vote at all.
>North Carolina is a swing state
Can we please stop this meme?
>>72463582
I keep saying it AGAIN AND AGAIN -
Only reason why Obama won was because so many black people showed up to vote just for a black man.
Come next election when there's no black man in the race, they won't show up.
Combine that with that fact that Republicans are out for payback in greater numbers than ever before, you have your redpill of things to come.
>>72463582
Thanks for your input, some random guy on a Chinese animation board.
>>72463582
Virginia isn't blue,
No nigger to vote for this go
And no libertarians to fuck Repubs
>>72466989
Read the article, primary turnout does not predict the general result at all.
>>72463582
>PA
>not Trump
Good one
>>72467492
>>72464627
>MI
>>72464627
>WI
>>72464627
>NH
>>72464627
>>72468018
>>72464627
>VA
>>72468141
>>72468070
>>72468018
>>72467952
>>72467880
>>72467728
>>72468070
I HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED ON HER
>>>72464627
>>72464862
That ignores the differences in party
Increased dem turnout doesn't always mean a dem victory, but Republican turnout being higher than dem does seem to guarantee a Republican win
>>72468236
Every time he opens his mouth his unfavorable ratings go through the roof
>>72468344
>muh unfavorables
NICE
MEME
YOU
GOT
THERE
>>72464627
I'm sorry, but nothing about your map makes any sense. You're assuming that many states will flip when there is no actual incentive for them doing so.
Will someone please explain to me which blue states will actually flip?
I would also like to add that I will be voting for Trump. I do believe the system is beyond repair, but I also will use whatever tool there is to make this a nation that is more free and prosperous. A vote for Trump is a true stand against both the GOP and the Democratic Party.
>>72468324
Wishful thinking.
>>72463582
>plus florida
why
Even if Hillary wins, it'll be one term at best. No party has controlled the White House for 4 terms in a row since the early 19th century with our 4th and 5th presidents.
>>72468401
The only meme here is Donald Trump
He would be the first meme president
He might as well pick John Cena as his running mate to further cement his status as a meme
>>72468467
>Will someone please explain to me which blue states will actually flip?
None, trump will make NC go blue though
>>72468812
i mean its basically true for trump as well
it would be 2 years at most before he's impeached
we're really fucked no matter who we get
>>72468877
And who would you pick, cuckold?
>>72464460
This isn't bait at all. I'm really worried about what's going on in my country. I really haven't been shown any proof of why the right wing could win. Obama should have easily been toppled by Romney. It was two light weights and he still didn't have enough juice.
>>72469008
>cuckold
Can you say anything that isn't a meme?
>>72467728
>>72467880
>>72467952
>>72468070
>>72468141
Do you shills think you're getting to us with this crap? Polls change. Just a couple of months ago, it was "Trump will never win the nomination" and you've already moved onto Hillary vs Trump.
Trump is going to destroy her just like short man Rand, Yeb, and Baby Marco and that's if she doesn't get sent to pound me in the ass prison first.
>>72469121
>he still didnt answer the question
>>72464460
>Probably get 55% of popular vote against Hillary. Democrats are secretly terrified of facing Trump in the fall.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-cruz-congress-elections-democrats-218269
Dems are rubbing their hands at trump handing them the senate and maybe even the house.
>>72466189
Everyone is forced to vote along the left-right paradigm. Therefore, everyone is either left or right. This country has been polarized with a too party system. Both parties have been inching closer and closer to the left.
>>72469089
because the whole game is rigged bought and paid for a long time ago
dont look for it to get any better
Reminds me the old days here.
>>72466353
It wouldn't ever happen, but I would be fine with Webb. A nationalist liberal.
>>72466538
Maybe "better", but how much better than zero? New Yorkers will not reject the welfare state.
>>72469460
>nationalist liberal
Thats Trump.
>>72469460
i like webb as well, thats why i'd hate to see him pair with trump
its a shame that he doesn't fit with either party anymore since independents are an afterthought here
>>72469574
bahahaha
>>72466841
I'm sorry, but Florida will vote Democratic. In many areas there isn't even a GOP office. The last election was a total love fest for Obama. Even though Hillary is luke warm on a summer's day, she will still win over Gainesville, Orlando, Miamo, Jacksonville, etc. The surrounding counties means nothing.
>>72463582
>mfw /pol/ butthurt when Hillary wins will give me comfort and help me deal with Trump's defeat.
>>72467206
Black folk are becoming more politically active. While I support everyone's individuality and right to vote in a representative republic, they vote leftist. The last two elections have forever empowered blacks to vote.
>>72467245
wut
>>72463582
It amazes me how many naive Americans there are who don't realize that 2008 was the year the 1 party dictatorship began. The Republicans will never hold office again due to demographic reasons.
It's only a matter of time until the leftists find a way to invalidate/get rid of the 1st and 2nd ammendments and then the USA will crumble like western Europe.
>>72467492
Why should they break the trend?
>>72470064
>getting rid of the 2nd amendment
anon, that'll be the reformed Republicans in 2028, leading to 12 years of Republican rule
that's how things go here.
>>72468491
Because of changing racial demographics. Old whites are dying off. Florida is a rather simple case of a state being invaded. Only in a gubernatorial election that isn't the same year as a presidential election could a Republican win like Rick Scott.
I've seen so many incorrect predictions of what is going to happen this election that the only conclusion I think one can safely reach is that anyone who tries to tell you what is going to happen is a faggot.
So much crazy shit has happened this election cycle that I don't know what is going to happen next.
>>72469227
I'm sorry, but there are just too many people flooding this nation that don't share American values. If Trump was going to win so easily I don't think someone like Hillary would even be up on stage. We have a man on the right that has spent his life building up a nation and on the left a woman who along with her husband has spent a lifetime sucking its life force right out.
People don't ever think where their goods and services come from. They think a bunch of wealthy people are self centered and are blocking them from getting THEIR goods.
>>72469336
>http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/trump-cruz-congress-elections-democrats-218269
I HOPE this is true, but I no longer have any faith in the system.
>>72466977
>Sanders struggles with minority votes
>Obama gets literally 95% of African American vote
nigga what
Hillary has name appeal but unless she picks Michelle for VP she won't get quite the same support, especially vs Trump
I'd say 75-25 Hillary on black vote at best
>>72470779
Excluding black voters for obvious reasons you fucking nigger, their supporter bases were very similar.
>>72470779
>Blacks will vote for trump.
See >>72468344
79% of them hate him already
>>72470365
I'm not telling anyone anything other than what I think. Please, keep discussing why I am wrong. It's the only hope to be shown what's the truth. I'm only one single individual that wants to see things for as they are. Being open minded doesn't mean ignoring things when they're right in one's face. This nation is facing some real struggles.
>>72464627
>LA
>blue
Yeah, not happening no matter who the nominee is.
>>72469886
more violent
>>72471204
Most of what you've said relies on predictions of how states will go based on how they've gone in the past. Every week there's a new headline about how some institution that has been right every election for 25 elections guessed this thing, and then the week after they end up being wrong.
This is an extremely atypical election, it has defied these kinds of predictions at every turn.
There's no argument that the demographics of the nation are changing but the claim that the GOP cannot win presidential elections due to changing demographics is quite a bold one, especially when taken along with the fact that a) this election has defied expectations at every turn and b) the congress is extremely republican at the moment.
>>72469227
This
>>72471592
>the congress is extremely republican at the moment.
Gerrymandering favours them right now in the house
>>72471592
Alright, sure. Trump has hijacked the GOP. That is indeed awesome. But it doesn't actually amount to anything unless he gets into office. It might not mean anything even once he's in office.
I also don't know what you were trying to communicate with your second point. Much of Congress is populated with people that won when there wasn't a presidential election. Congress even now can't get anything done. They either go along with the leftists or they give a weak "no" to the other side.
>>72463582
>according to this election map I created myself, Trump cannot win!
simply ebin, fucking good post dude
>>72465938
>FL is in the bag for Trump.
especially since it's p likely Rubio's the VP now. If not her, that bitch Martinez
>>72471914
Most of the gerrymandering is done by the Democrats.
>>72463582
Everybody loves a winner.
Trump's base is stoked
Hillary's base is depressed
>>72472093
Go to the site yourself and check the states that have voted the same since 2000. I still don't know of one that would or could switch red.
>>72472254
Not true at all
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/05/15/americas-most-gerrymandered-congressional-districts/
http://bl.ocks.org/cingraham/7551527
>1. Democrats won in nine of the 10 most-gerrymandered districts. But eight out of 10 of those districts were drawn by Republicans.
>>72472254
They both gerrymander when they can, but in 2010 (the last census) the districts were drawn by Republicans so they are all biased towards Republicans right now.
>>72463872
>Canada
Texas and Georgia will never go blue. The GOP could nominate and hot pile of dogshit and it would still beat the democratic candidate
>>72472254
hilariously false
>>72463582
>Florida blue
>Year 2001+15
Get the fuck out shill
>>72468877
Not true.
Cleveland withstanding, the Republicans hold the White House exclusively from 1870-1912.
Also, FDR was elected for 4 terms with Truman filling out the last term and winning another term in his own right.
>>72463582
Either Trump wins, or Hillary wins. Cruz can not win, Trump supporters will abstain in rage.. if they dont take up arms.
BTW Cruz himself can be quoted as saying it would be a revolt if it went to a brokered convention, when he still had a chance. "manifest revolt" I think was the term he said.
>>72472254
>Most of the gerrymandering is done by the Democrats.
No. The gerrymandered districts are WON by Democrats, but that's because Republicans drew the districts to concentrate as many Democrats as possible into a single Democratic district.
The best gerrymanderomg strategy is to win a lot of districts by a small margin (for example R=52% to D=48%), and to lose a few districts by a huge margin (for example R=2% to D=98%). Whenever you see that pattern, it's the result of Republican gerrymandering.
Currently, all of the most severely gerrymandered districts favor the Republicans.
>>72470307
I think you're vastly overstating that shift. Florida is still fairly heavily Republican.
Also Hillary will lose because the FBI will recommend her indictment the day after she gets nominated. Guaranteed.
