Everything's looking pretty close now. What are Trump's chances?
>>72237260
bump
>>72237260
>ohio and florida
maybe he meant NY and California?
>>72237260
negative zero percent.
>>72238718
I think its because Trump is almost certainly going to win both of those by large margins.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
>>72237260
I'm prepared to say he has a 67.5% chance of clinching the nomination BEFORE the convention.
He only needs to win 30% of the delegates I think he has this
Can some ameribros explain the kind of people in the following states?
Indiana
Nebraska
West Virginia
Oregon
Washington
California
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico
South Dakota
Which state is a "Cruz state"?
>>72239483
>Which state is a "Cruz state"
literal who stats in the middle of nowhere where people suck jesus' cock
>>72237260
He can win the nomination, but he can't win the general for a few reasons. Trump cant win the following states in the eletion
>Virginia
>Nevada
>Colorado
>Iowa
>NH
>Wisconsin
Trump may win Florida, but it wouldn't be enough to get him to 270.
>>72239686
He also can't win Ohio
>>72239686
Based on what? Especially with Virginia, which was only a blue state for Obama
>>72239991
>Northern Virginia has too many liberals, and their Democrat Governor is friends with Clinton and just gave 200,000 felons voting rights. Most vote Democrat.
>Nevada and Colorado have too many beaner's
>Iowa likes Clinton
Ohio has allot of blacks and allot of anti trumpers
>>72239686
Shill Harder
>>72239686
Nevada and Virginia are more republican than you think. Colorado and Iowa could go either way, but if he wins Ohio and every other state you haven't mentioned minus the hardcore blue states, he'll clinch it.
>>72240297
Clinton had more votes then Trump in the Primary.
>>72239686
he will win the general because he will be running unopposed after the F.B.I. has indicted her. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsMo8_5QQz0
>>72240414
Gore had more votes than Bush..whats your point?
>>72240369
Too many beaner's in Nevada, and the Virginia governor is going to make sure Trump doesn't win.
>>72240613
I was talking about the Pennsylvania primary. Clinton has more votes than Trump.
>>72240414
Primary voting means very little for the general.
For example, a lot of NY repubs register as democrats so they can vote in the dem primary for strategic reasons. Independents can't vote in the NY primary either.
>>72240369
>mfw I'll be negating a trumpshill vote when I vote Hillary in Ohio
I wasn't even gonna participate lads wew time to get out the vote boys
>>72240708
So?
>>72240730
> a lot of NY repubs
You mean like all 10 of them? NY is one of the most solid blue states.
If Trump wins New York, the entire map will be red. At that point it's just confirmed he's the second coming of Jesus Christ
>>72239483
Assume any state in the Bible Belt is a Cruz state. Figure trump will get substantial delegates from California and New Jersey, possibly Washington. He picks up a couple of the winner-take-all states too and he's pretty much set. Not a guarantee but I'd take the over on .5
>>72240960
Upstate NY secession when
>>72240892
It means that Trump can't flip PA, because of Philidelphia.
>>72239483
IA is next and may go either way depending on the size of Trump's bump vs Cruz singular focus. WV may split. Take out NJ, CA, perhaps NM and you have your list of where I can see clear Cruz wins. Yet he may still take a lot of delegates from CA too for the fact that he's had his grassroots organized in the state for months going after congressional districts. WA & OR I think are Cruz for the hits their economy would take from Trump's campaign pledges of trade wars and 40% tariffs. Also, Cruz supporters took over the party in OR, though he's not running in the state.
>>72240960
>what is upstate New York
>>72239686
>All the pundits, some of whom have been doing this for upwards of decades, have been wrong in almost all of their predictions this entire election cycle
>some random guy on a Chinese cartoon board thinks he can accurately predict this election cycle
>>72240734
why do you hate your country though?
>>72239686
>>72240708
>Trump has 1% less votes than Hillary in Pennsylvania, despite it being a closed primary and a million more registered democrats in than republicans, so he won't win.
>Trump literally had 500+% of hillary's vote in Nevada.
You're done
>>72240414
>crossover voting never happens
>>72241435
Again..so what? Besides the cunt wil be indicted soon anyway..the FBI is chomping at the bit...Its going to be glorious! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsMo8_5QQz0
>>72240960
>who is Ronald Reagan?
>>72240999
>bible belt
I don't think that term means what you think it means. BB did its voting, they chose Trump
>>72240734
(You)
>>72240297
Why do only the rich states vote democrat?
>>72240414
>Clinton had more votes then Trump in the Primary.
Hillary had one opponent in her primary. Trump and Cruz had fifteen. P
Not that >>72240297 isn't wildly off-base and desperate shilling.
>>72241730
You still haven't proven that Trump can realistically with the election and get to 270. That PA thing is delusional, and he can't win Virginia or Ohio.
>>72241994
Oh I dont do it for the yous you silly paid shill I do it for free, because its right..And that is ANOTHER reason Trump will win, no one trusts that crusty dishonest whore.
>>72242031
The rich don't have to work for their money.
>>72242078
And you haven't proven shit. How do you account for crossover voters who exist as of now, not to mention those that may swing during the general season?
>>72242078
Again, if you're using the primary voting logic, trump got far more votes than hillary in Ohio, Maine, and Nevada among other swing states. Republicans also had more votes than Democrats in Virginia. If you say Trump won't win Pennsylvania while he was barely behind her in a closed primary, then he should easily beat her when he had far more votes than her in Ohio, Nevada, Maine, Florida, etc.
>>72242191
>crusty dishonest whore.
How dare you speak of Hillary that way?
>>72237260
90%+. The other two are eliminated. People don't vote for eliminated candidates. That's why Trump sweeps the states now. It will continue.
>>72237260
Basically, at this point it's "Does he win Indiana?"
At that point, the odds of even a contested convention evaporate, and I think the Cruz/Kasich thing has backfired horrendously. If one of them had dropped and endorsed the other, they -might- have had a chance, but it's the same thing that has killed everyone in Trump's path to the nomination- he gets more voters than any split between challengers, and at this point momentum has made it so rough that even all of his challengers combined aren't topping his vote totals.
We're just waiting for the inevitable at this point.
>>72242220
Are trumpfags seriously this retarded?
>>72239483
>Which state is a "Cruz state"?
Nebraska, Montana, South Dakota. I doubt he'll win states other than those.
>>72241858
I've actually looked this and it's not that simple.
First of all, Nixon did a giant sweep first in 1972 (won everything except Massachusets and DC). Eisenhower similarly in the 50s.
Second, the parties were a bit different in general back then. The democrats were controlling southern states (George Wallace was a democrat, Jimmy Carter won Texas and most of the south against Ford) while the Republicans were reliable in states that are now considered ultra librul. Like California voted Republican almost all the time up until George H W Bush.
Basically the GoP was way more liked by the people back then. Remember that back then it wasn't considered the redneck favorite like it is now, so it was much easier to make a giant coalition.
>>72242372
>>72242434
You guys are mad because you know it's mathematically impossible for him to win. You get all excited about the primaries, but you haven't looked past that. PA hasn't gone red since 88. Virginia is now a blue state. Only a moderate Republican can win Ohio. Iowa is now a blue state. Nevada and Colorado have allot of Hispanics who will turn out to vote against Trump. IT'S OVER.
>>72237260
Yes he is at 991 delegates according to cnn. This is over 100% of the delegate target according to fivethirtyeight. Its super easy to get him to 1,237
>>72242773
If Clinton makes Julian Castro her running mate, then Texas may go blue against Trump.
>>72239686
>He wont win NH
The fuck he can't. I'll fight tooth and nail to ensure my state goes red.
>>72237260
>opponents start co-operating to stop trump
>they both lose support
The memes are real
Republitards just had to deal with 8 years of Obama. Now they have to deal with the first woman president and a Hispanic Vice president. Amnesty is going to happen, and it will be funny watching you racists get upset. Ontop of that, there will be a new liberal supreme court nominee, and the Democrats will get majority in senate. Say goodbye to white America and start learning Spanish. =)
>>72242890
Your one vote means shit.
>>72243175
that's the mentality that loses elections :^)
>>72242872
The guy is a Cruz tier scumbag. Figures.
>>72242872
You think Hispanics will vote for them just because the guy happens to be Hispanic? Texas isn't going blue.
>>72242773
>You guys are mad because you know it's mathematically impossible for him to win. You get all excited about the primaries, but you haven't looked past that. PA hasn't gone red since 88. Virginia is now a blue state. Only a moderate Republican can win Ohio. Iowa is now a blue state. Nevada and Colorado have allot of Hispanics who will turn out to vote against Trump. IT'S OVER.
You do know that your post only supports trump being able to do this, right? It shows that states can easily switch over, just like they have done in the past. If it switched from a red to a blue state, theres nothing stopping it from switching from a blue to red.
>>72242890
Trump is losing it by 10 pts.
Should have backed Cruz.
>>72243094
>bloviation
>>72242890
Salem NH reporting in
>>72243094
>increasingly nervous man
Outsider here my prediction is anything can and will happen.
>>72243934
Concord replying
It's shit senpai
>>72237683
This is pol.
You cannot self bump redditard
>>72241467
Tearing their hair out to know they live in a state that's going blue with a 20+pt margin.
>>72242653
Fucking vote sponges.
