>>71743850
Trump wins the rest of the west coast,Rhode Island,CT,NJ,Maryland,PA,Delaware,NM
Cruz wins Montana,Nebraska,Dakotas,WV
Kasich surprises and wins Indiana

>>71744069

Where does that put Trump delegate wise?

Is the GOP going to be able to pull shenanigans and deny him the candidacy?

>>71744497
He won't get enough, and the GOP will throw out a Kasich/Rubio ticket.

>>71744497
Trump needs something like 53% of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention. The contested convention also has rules which may mean Trump wins anyway. It's really hard to say what will happen.

FWIW, paddypower.com, an online betting site, favors Trump with 2/5 odds. (If you were to bet $5 for Trump and he got elected, you'd win $2 and get your $5 back for a total of $7).

For Cruz, the next most likely, that same $5 would get you $13.75 in winnings plus your $5 back for a total of $18.75.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=481890

I look to things like this over polls and media predictions, because I think when money is at stake the predictions are more likely to be an accurate reflection of reality.

>>71745384
Just in case that wasn't too clear: You get more money betting on Cruz because he's a higher-risk bet -- less likely to win.

>>71745384
he needs 58%.

>>71745491

so ultimately the two big questions are if it goes to a contested convention.

How far is Donald away from the delegate count

How far behind is Cruz from Trump

>>71745629
Pretty much.

>>71743850
Cruz getting BTFO in the North

>>71745491
It's entirely possible my math could be wrong.

I have Trump at 845 delegates, meaning he needs an additional 392 to meet the 1,237 threshold. There are 733 delegates remaining..

392/733 = ~.534

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

What am I missing?