redpill me on these fuckers. I have no idea how this can be true.
>>71678103
They take all the different polls then give the average.
Also it is possible because Trump alienates both conservatives and liberals leaving him with a tiny amount of voters left over.
Cruz at least gets the standard GOP base and does slightly better among Independents than Trump does. Trumpfags will cry foul on this based on primary results, but Trump does extremely poorly among Independents *among the general electorate.*
Trump also alienates much of the GOP base and polarizes liberals more. Women and minorities also hate Trump a lot more than Cruz.
There you go.
>>71678103
It's not true. They poll incredibly small controlled groups of people who statistically will lean a certain way.
Trump will demolish Hillary in the general. Don't worry anon.
>>71678103
Its just the average of all polls taken.
Regardless its completely irrelevant this early, pic related is an example of what historically can happen. The only important poll that concerns Trump and Clinton is unfavorability polls that both say they have >50% unfavorability which means its anyones game and the biggest unpopularity contest of the ages
>>71678103
who cares, the dems wont turnout
>>71678555
It's ture, and no amount of being an apologist cuck will change it.
>>71678555
Yet somehow these polls have been correct throughout the GOP primaries and were correct in 2012 when the race was much much closer:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls
>>71678400
>Cruz
>independents
>Jesus candidate
>any general appeal
Trump does far better in open primaries than Cruz
but good shit post
>>71678555
Its true polling its just extremely inaccurate this early in the cycle because the candidates haven't been chosen officially and they haven't even debated each other.
>>71678585
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/
>>71678586
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
>>71678719
>Trump does far better in open primaries than Cruz
>low IQ Trumpshit doesn't understand the primary voters don't reflect the general electorate even after I fucking said that
>>71678800
im surprised that shit website is still up
Nate let his liberal bias ruin his career
CNBC has a poll guru on sometimes and its not Nate anymore
>>71678555
TRIPS DON'T LIE
KEK WILLS IT
>>71678720
>Crucially, Trump's decline has happened just when these polls actually start to mean something. In newer polls, Trump almost never comes close to either Clinton or Sanders anymore. And in past races, changes in general election polling that have occurred during this period of the campaign have often ended up sticking.
>"Were this a few months ago, I'd say, 'What's the big deal?'" says Christopher Wlezien, a political science professor at the University of Texas. "But polls today are much more meaningful than they were 90 days ago. And the polls today are much less favorable for Trump."
>The authors found that around 300 days before the election (mid-January), general election polls are essentially meaningless — their predictive value is close to zero. But by the time we get to mid-April of the election year, polls explain about half the variance in the eventual vote split. And mid-April polls have correctly "called" the winner in about two-thirds of the cases since 1952.
It's becoming obvious that Trump supporters are just really really really stupid and gullible people who will believe anything their fellow Trumpshits tell them.
>>71678853
put the crack pipe down
>>71678400
>Trump also alienates much of the GOP base and polarizes liberals more. Women and minorities also hate Trump a lot more than Cruz.
Nah.The Rat is so unappealing people are willing to believe anything evil about him:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/is-ted-cruz-the-zodiac-killer-maybe-say-38-percent-of-florida-voters-20160226
"Kill da gays" religious zealot is not gonna do well with any minority or independent group.
>>71678800
I wasn't comparing him to Reagan dipshit, I was just using the historical polls as an example because I remembered exactly where the pic I posted was online. I know for a fact that there were more recent elections with a switch like that.
regardless the guy who made that article is an idiot because Hillary is similar unpopular as Trump, Trump isn't facing an incumbent, and the elections are just very different contextually in general.
Using the general election polls beyond campaign strat (ex Kasich jerking off about how he is the only one ahead of Hillary head to head) to prove anything is retarded THIS early.
What those polls don't take into account is the fact that the Donald will completely destroy Clinton in the debates. In conjunction with his incredible knowledge of memetics, the reign of Lord Trump is almost guaranteed.
>>71678586
maybe the Trump hate will bring them out
Trump needs to hit Shillary hard and make it difficult to defend her
>>71679015
The problems with that is that I'm not a Trump supporter and that generally by mid-April the candidates are already pretty clear. The polls will likely get much closer (not saying Trump will be on top its anyone's game because both Hillary and Trump are disliked in general)
>>71679095
>female republicans
>>71678720
These are the Clinton vs Trump poll numbers for New Hampshire. Trump did extremely well in the New Hampshire primary and it's a libertarian-leaning state that should in theory be in play for him.
Look how much he's collapsed over the last two months. Not much is going to make that 19% gap disappear.
>>71678400
it feels like ten months ago, the only thing your post is missing is "and thats why his ceiling is 20 percent!"
>>71679095
>Female Republicans in New York
So basically a group who don't matter in the general election.
>>71679407
Except ya know Hillary and Trump actually debating each other
>>71679235
it hasnt yet
and it wont
Obama voters are not Democrat voters
if Hillary loses they will never run an old white person again
>>71679095
>he cites Republican primary voters in NY as counter-evidence
How many times do I have to tell you idiots that
>PRIMARY VOTERS DO NOT REFLECT THE GENERAL ELECTORATE
>PRIMARY VOTERS DO NOT REFLECT THE GENERAL ELECTORATE
>PRIMARY VOTERS DO NOT REFLECT THE GENERAL ELECTORATE
>PRIMARY VOTERS DO NOT REFLECT THE GENERAL ELECTORATE
All caps used so the idiots scrolling by don't miss it.
This is especially obvious in New York, which is a heavily Democratic state which Trump has no chance of winning in November:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_trump_vs_clinton-5792.html
>>71678800
>fivethirtyeight
Trump 2016 bitch...
>>71679553
You have shit for brains. Kill yourself
>>71679595
>tfw nevertrump movement is now officially dead
Ted is the kind of guy who runs for president in a country he wasnt born in
Ted is the kind of guy who cant win the nomination but claims he can win the general
Ted is the kind of guy who leaves the mouse in the center of the screen when showing you a video
Ted is the kind of guy who celebrates voter-less election wins
>>71679553
Screaming like a lunatic or quoting the literal nervous shill Nate ((((((Silver))))) won't help your "arguments" or make people pay attention to you.
>YOUR OPINION OR THE OPINIONS OF RETARDED SHILLS DO NOT MATTER
>YOUR OPINION OR THE OPINIONS OF RETARDED SHILLS DO NOT MATTER
>YOUR OPINION OR THE OPINIONS OF RETARDED SHILLS DO NOT MATTER
>YOUR OPINION OR THE OPINIONS OF RETARDED SHILLS DO NOT MATTER
>YOUR OPINION OR THE OPINIONS OF RETARDED SHILLS DO NOT MATTER
>>71679553
>Trump has no chance
>>71678400
>Trumpfags will cry foul on this based on primary results
maybe because primary results are actual hard evidence.
all you have is meaningless conjecture.
>>71678800
>Trump is no reagan
neither was Reagan until he won.
>>71678103
>>71678642
>>71678718
>>71678965
At the end of the day... Let's be honest. Donald Trump will stop at nothing to win. If not for this country, for his own ego. He will scorch earth Hillary and everyone else in his way if it's his final option to win the presidency.
In Donald we trust.
They used to poll Jeb winning the primary. These faggots are out of touch.
>>71678265
Exactly this.
>>71678103
Outside of /pol/ and other far-right internet hangouts Trump isn't very popular.
>>71678400
This is a pretty good post, however there is one thing I need to add: These are national head-to-head polls. Since the elections are done state by state, a nationwide poll is largely irrelevant. It is more important to look at each candidate's performance in each state.
>>71679823
>>71679870
>>71679738
Sometimes I wish this board weren't anonymous so that I would know who to laugh at forever when reality smashes you in the face in November.
>>71679977
The last time Jeb was leading the polls was in July 2015, before Trump even launched his campaign:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
>>71679553
>only evidence is opinion pieces and conjecture pulled out of his ass
>complains that people using actual evidence from actual elections.
>>71678103
What is the electoral college.
>>71680044
and sometimes i wish reddit would fuck off
>>71680044
reddit.com
perfect for you
>>71679557
I've been away for a long time, is that a real picture? holy shit man, how does that happen
You'll see people switching sides if Trump gets the nomination. He really hasn't mentioned Hilary yet and when he it's going to be golden.
>Bengazi ads
>Hilary getting cucked speeches
WHAT'S ON YOUR WISH LIST FOR TRUMP TO SAY AGAINST SHILLARY?
>>71679208
>the fact that the Donald will completely destroy Clinton in the debates
I'm going to enjoy seeing all the brainless Trumplets cheer a debate "victory" while the rest of the country, which isn't brain damaged, realizes that Trump made a fool of himself (yet again)
Claiming "Donald won" works in the GOP primary because a huge chunk of their voters are literal retards. Anyone else who isn't a drooling GOPtard will see Trump's nonsense for what it is.
Trump could never have beaten Clinton, Republicans here have played themselves by not beating Clinton ASAP by getting Bernie in.
>>71679557
oh please, and adam scott thought Trump was going to win every state. he's just as bad
>>71680349
type a post like this 3x longer and we will use it as pasta
>>71680392
THAT FUCKING HAIR LINE
>>71680044
>november
So you admit the Rat does first.I will drink cuckservatives tears for a long time.Even in the event that Trump doesn't get the job done come november.
>People on /pol/ are seriously deluded enough to thing trump can win
>but muh debates
Where's that huge collage of Romney is winning posts right up until election night in 2012?
>>71680349
>he doesn't remember the 08 democrat debates
Hillary is fucking awful at debating. an inexperienced retard like obama can completely fuck her campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mb3JHexXljk
Trump has no limits, he will bludgeon her to death and sit there laughing like an idiot on national TV as she visibly sweats.
>>71680402
In reality the only democrat Trump could realistically beat is Clinton because she is the only one who is similarly hated as Trump (they both have over 50% unfavorability ratings consistently)
Although Bernie sucks he would win based on the virtue that he isn't so disliked. Its actually an extremely interesting outcome that the most popular candidates that will most likely win are also by far the most hated (and are growing more hated, Clinton is rapidly gaining more unfavorable if I remember correctly, don't quote me on this though)
>>71680432
the golfer or the cartoonist? (scott adams)
and hes not a "poll guru".... but neither is nate
>>71680527
probably the saddest part
>>71679870
>maybe because primary results are actual hard evidence.
Trump is the worst leading GOP candidate for primary voting ever. Even fucking McCain and Romney got their nominations with ease.
>>71680553
Trump losing in November will be so much more hilarious than Cruz losing. This place is going to be great. I hope someone saves all the threads in case I'm preoccupied elsewhere on Election night.
>>71678103
You have to remember that dindus, Armenians and other fake Americans are allowed to vote. If only REAL Americans were permitted to vote Trump would win easy. If only people who paid income tax voted, Trump would win. The jew as stacked things against you and now.
Your system allows fake "Americans" to vote, of course you will lose. The west is cucked. Only the white man of the East has any autonomy. We da white man now.
>>71680294
Stress, genetics, and I believe having high test cause balding too.
>>71680670
>hand picked party insider politicians got the nomination with ease
no way nigel
>>71680784
Proves Trump is less popular with republican primary voters than even shit candidates like McCain who got blown the fuck out.
>>71680670
Romney and McCain didn't have hundreds of millions of dollars tossed at them in negative ads and party leadership trying to destroy their campaigns.
don't talk about american politics if you don't understand it.
>>71680910
Trump has had billions in free media publicity.
>>71680901
>he thinks primary voters are the same as party leadership
can you be more retarded?
>>71680968
and almost all of it has been negative.
Trump is winning despite having the entire political and media machine trying to stop him.
>>71680727
Bitch please. Nothing is ever gonna beat /pol/harber.
And you cant troll professional shitposters as much as you can cuckservatives.
>>71680968
>Trump has had billions in free negative media publicity.
>inb4 any publicity is good publicity
>>71680975
Regardless Trump is hated by most of his own party, let alone the independents and democrat swing voters needed to win a general.
>>71681059
>>71681091
Then why didn't he advertise back? Or call for restricting campaign spending?
>>71680968
>billions
Sure, "billions" in overwhelming negative hit pieces meant to bury him, but backfired.
>>71680901
>>71680670
Retard, Trump got more votes than these retards in the states that he won.And even in Iowa he still beat previous "winners"
>>71681174
>Then why didn't he advertise back?
He shitposts and takes advantage of social media, you fucking mong
>>71680392
Well he was right, Trump has no shot.
>>71678931
damn he's been wrong a lot
he was right last election but that was insanely obvious
>>71680432
>adam scott
Do you mean scott adams?
I'll tell you, that guy's love affair with Trump is so disappointing. I always LOVED the political commentary in Dilbert, but the stuff I've seen from scott adams himself makes me feel like he wasn't as smart as I assumed he would have been
>>71681291
So he takes advantage of free media publicity from the negative shit they try to pull?
>>71678555
>mfw trips
>>71678965
PRAISE KEK
>>71680621
>he will bludgeon her to death
See this is the fundamental misunderstanding here. You don't "bludgeon to death" the opponent to win debates. Any moron can stand up there on stage and act like king shit. Insulting people does not qualify him to be President.
The American people generally understand this. The batshit insane right-wing, unfortunately, does not.
>>71681241
Four years ago Romney already had the nomination so the voting in New York was simply formal. Why is Coulter such a retard?
>>71681174
>Regardless Trump is hated by most of his own party, let alone the independents and democrat swing voters needed to win a general.
no he isn't you fucking retard. about 40% of the party has chosen him as their candidate, another 20% are swing voters in the primary, another 20% just want someone else to be the nominee but would still be okay with him being the nominee, 10% would begrudgingly vote for him in the general, and the last 10% hate him.
>Then why didn't he advertise back? Or call for restricting campaign spending?
because it would have been a waste of time and money dipshit.
>spend time actually campaigning and talking to the voters while dismissing negative ads in interviews and tweets
or
>waste millions in ads that will hardly do jack shit
are you going to fault him for being smart?
>>71680735
Get off /pol/ and spend some time in the real world.
>>71680910
You're a fucking retard. The media and attack ads aren't what hurts Trump. The stupid shit that comes out of his mouth does.
>>71681536
No, your question was why doesn't he fight back through advertising of his, and why would he when he anything he throws out at his opponents on social media is regurgitated by the media. Your solution is throwing money at the situation when he doesn't need to
>>71681679
Retard, turnout has been YUUUUUUUGE in all the states not just NY (only on the republican side)
>>71681957
My point was in regards to New York. She is a fucking idiot.
>>71681668
>Insulting people does not qualify him to be President.
Hillary's entire polirical career depends on people not being willing to call her out for being precisely what she is. Trump is the only one who is willing to flout the rules enough to cal Rumplestiltzcunt by her name and she will wither in the polls just like happened to Rubio.
>>71681668
im not talking about insults you retard.
do you have any idea how many scandals Hillary has been involved in? there's tons of shit that can be pegged on her going all the way back before her husband was even a governor. hell he could bring up that time she defended a child rapist and LAUGHED ABOUT IT, and her campaign would be effectively dead.
>>71681911
>The stupid shit that comes out of his mouth does.
such as?
>>71679488
Trump is running from a debate against an opponent all his supporters and Trump himself says he crushes regularly (this simple fact shows how much the talk is just that; empty crowing). How do you expect him to do well against Hillary, who's far more versed at debate?
>>71679407
the whole of the mainstream media, democratic and republican machines, plus every foreign power was against him... and he only dropped 8 points.
I'd actually call that a victory.
>>71683499
The only thing Hillary is good at is lying, knowing her supports won't fact check anything she says.
Trump will call her out on it, no one else will (because they are fall guys)
>>71683499
>Trump is running from a debate against an opponent all his supporters and Trump himself says he crushes regularly (this simple fact shows how much the talk is just that; empty crowing). How do you expect him to do well against Hillary, who's far more versed at debate?
And Clinton was also refusing to debate Sanders.A Cuck Socialist that was literally bending over backwards defending her.
>>71683499
>Hillary, who's far more versed at debate?
why do you fags keep saying this? she isn't
she's only doing so well in debates this election because bernie is a huge coward.
see >>71680621
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qggO5yY7RAo
>>71683499
Hillary could never survive a debate against Trump. She barely survives Bernie's debates, which are wholly subservient.
>>71682176
NY's primary turnout was near half of 2012's votes for Romney.
>>71683849
She agreed to debate Sanders and ended up crushing him in NY right after. She made him look like a cranky clueless old man.
>>71681668
>The American people generally understand this. The batshit insane right-wing, unfortunately, does not.
That's not even what's going on in Trump's wins. He's not being supported primarily by the right-wing, but by folks who identify themselves as moderates. Indeed the newly activated, outside-the-Republican-party independents have been critical to his winning margins (which haven't in a lot of cases been all too impressive), even as those independents are wildly out of step with the way the GE independents feel.
You're right about the other stuff, though. Insults are not debate wins, but they may be a way to hold a base while the others who are participating in the debate engage in battle over the same demo. When Trump attempts to put this same act to work in the presidential debates as his supporters expect him to he gets crushed. Because ultimately all that were ever impressed by his Republican debate performances is a small segment of the Republican voting primary electorate. And that's like a 5% of the size of a general election turnout.
>>71680901
ask your parents to explain it to you
>>71684278
>She agreed to debate Sanders and ended up crushing him in NY right after. She made him look like a cranky clueless old man.
>a cranky clueless old man
Which he always was.Why the charade about him being too mean when he was literally defending her and her initial refusal to debate.
>>71684278
>sanders
do i have to explain this to you? the fact that sanders can even get 40% on her says it all.
>>71683816
>The only thing Hillary is good at is lying, knowing her supports won't fact check anything she says.
This applies to a lot of folks. Trump supporters come to mind. They think he's a stalwart on immigration, even as he's pushing for a change in immigration law in keeping with the amnesty crowd.
>Trump will call her out on it, no one else will (because they are fall guys)
Trump will remind his own core supporters why they voted for him in the primaries, and convince nobody else.
>>71684137
She's had practice going back as far as her initial run for Senate shortly after Bill's presidency. She may not be the best, but she definitely has more skills than Trump, who's tactic in the Republican base has been to not say anything damaging to his hold on his established base.
>>71684204
She is beating him, and will be the nominee. She's certainly not the best, but the point is that Trump is much worse opponent than Sanders.
>>71684687
Yes, it say the base of the Democratic party is practically socialists these days. As expected following eight years of Obama pushing politics leftwards.
Under normal circumstances Hillary Clinton would be socialist enough to have wide and instant appeal, because her support base could rest assured there would be in the wings an even more certain crypto-socialist. But politics have moved just that much in so short a time that they now feel safe to give much open support to the avowed one.
>>71684278
>made him look like a clueless old man
>>71685239
imo we should be thanking Sanders
He pulled Clinton all the way to the left while wasting her time and money, and all while dividing the Democratic party
We would've been screwed if only our party was broken, but thank god the Democrats are burning too
>>71685988
Indeed its made Clinton a somewhat easier target for as far left as she's had to shift, but there are some trade-offs. She's getting the challenge some in the party secretly wanted, because otherwise her general run would've been a cold start, with her other weaknesses (shrillness, stilted speechifying, impersonal style) brought more immediately to the fore. Without recent debate experience she also would have been a prime target in the presidential debates against whatever Republican survived their grudge matches.
Yet Sander's challenge has opened the door to the possibility of Democratic deflation when snubbed Sanders voters have to decide if their hurt feelings are worth just letting the Republicans take the next one.
Of course, the Republicans could turn that all that around and nominate Trump, which would activate the D's once again, as evidence by the results of the match-up polls.
>>71684782
>but the point is that Trump is much worse opponent than Sanders.
Yeah, no. She beats Sanders because Sanders refuses to stand up to her. There's no way she could survive being debated by Trump.
>They think he's a stalwart on immigration
...by comparison...
>they haven't had a single debate yet
>TRUMP STUMPED!!!!1!!
why is this thread full of buttblasted berniefags hating on trump?
>>71678265
/thread
>>71679894
Tranny lover.
>>71687828
>She beats Sanders
Because funding, because superdelegates, because feminism, because not every Democratic primary voter is as much a socialist as Sanders is, because Sanders is seventy four and looks it, because he's a cuck who blacks don't respect, and because of a host of other good solid reasons that I'm not going to list because I've adequately demonstrated enough of them. You want to say its debate related because that's the point on which you began.
But what has Trump done in debate that make you confident of his abilities? He's running from a debate at this very moment and has been for awhile, against an opponent he maintains he beats easily. If he were being honest, if he were that good at it, he'd want to keep showing off his abilities, and honing his skill for the presidential debates because those skills will be important.
Trump's actual debate performance was much less impressive than he says, or you believe, because your perspective is that of a partisan supporter. Trump didn't go into them with the intention to make ground; he already had a marginal lead and merely attempted to sit on it. He could go silent for long periods and let other candidates engage each other. He could simply deflect from anything that came his way with a personal attack because whoever engaged him wasn't appealing to the same potential voter's as he was sitting on, they were appealing to that group of Republican voters who were anti-Trump.
This same dynamic will not exist in the presidential debates played out before a general electorate, and yet when opportunity arose late in the primary debate schedule (when there were only two opponents, with only one that mattered) to showcase a skill set that would be important to the general, he ran.
This is the guy you trust to rip Hillary apart? Because you trust he'll demean her in a way that's only got him not quite enough delegates to win the R nomination on the first ballot? He'll get ripped apart himself.
>>71690421
>He'll get ripped apart himself.
>>71690421
>But what has Trump done in debate that make you confident of his abilities? He's running from a debate at this very moment and has been for awhile, against an opponent he maintains he beats easily. If he were being honest, if he were that good at it, he'd want to keep showing off his abilities, and honing his skill for the presidential debates because those skills will be important.
As a Rat you you have no common sense whatsoever, but I will still try to explain the dead obvious to you.
Trump does not need to be "honing his skill for the presidential debates"
https://youtu.be/Rksd80-FCAw
Getting understamated is much more important.
Second, Trump being forced to defend his liberal past against the Rat is a waste of time and counterproductive when he needs it in the general.
>he ran.
And Hillary "ran" from Bernie.You are clinically retarded.
The very latest polls showed Clinton winning Michigan on March 8th, before she lost it by underperforming the polling average by 22.9%:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html
Why are leftist media outlets so scared of Trump, rather than happy about him becoming the Republican nominee, if they are so sure Clinton would win against him?
Polls are often funded to push a narrative, trying to depress turnout among the opposition.
Wake me up when Clinton gets tens of thousands at her rallies. Trump has barely even started on Clinton yet. She is a conventional politician like Jeb Bush.
>>71691605
>nyuh-uh
>>71691835
>nyuh-uh
Somebody needs to explain basic shilling to you.When you are already losing, mocking your oposition isn't gonna get you anywhere.
>>71692900
Nope. Try again.
>>71693726
Nope.You need to earn the (You)s properly
1984: 88% of voters were white.
2016: less than 70% will be white.
>>71678103
If the RNC actually cared about approval ratings they would've put out Ron Paul because he was the only favorable candidate that actually did better than Obama
RCP is actually pretty good as far as a mainstream site to get political information from.
They have a good mix of Op-Eds that include ones from sites like Reason, Fox, etc.
Pretty balanced overall.
>>71679015
>2/3rds of contests
That's not anywhere close enough to pretend like that's a statistic you can take as gospel into the 2016 election, which has so far defied the predictions of so-called "experts" at every turn.
