>Trump fails to earn 1,237 delegates by the convention
>Convention becomes contested
>Establishment tosses Cruz in
How likely is this?
>>71591955
0%
Cruz is being used by the establishment to attempt to stop Trump, and if Trump doesn't get 1237 they'll toss Rafael aside like a used rubber and throw in Paul Ryan
>>71592022
This.
100% will happen, anyone who thinks otherwise is a delusional Trumpster Diver
>>71592022
>>71592110
I thought Ryan already came out and said he is definitely not down with that idea.
>>71592172
Hi, Schlomo.
>>71592240
Oh yes, just like he came out last year and said he was definitely not down with the idea of being Speaker of the House. How did that go?
>>71592240
He said the same thing about speaker m8
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/04/04/5-times-paul-ryan-said-hes-not-running-speaker-house/
>>71591955
Change that to...
>Establishment tosses Jeb! in
How likely is Jeb? 99%
>>71591955
50-50.
Hillary will win in November
>>71591955
They will toss Cruz in because they would rather have Hillary Clinton win so they can keep their beautiful gig going on while the Americans suffer, rather than see an othersider like Trump put all these useless politicians out of work or lower their paychecks.
>>71592325
Why are you getting snippy with me? I've done nothing to insult you
>>71592022
won't be ryan. but they hate cruz almost as much as trump. so who will it be?
>>71592372
>Slow.....And steady
>>71591955
It's over, there can't be a contested convention.
>>71592410
stop taking things personally faggot
>>71592424
my money is on ryan or even romney desu
I don't think they give a shit about pissing away the election, if Hillary gets elected it's status quo and they keep the gravy train rolling
>>71591955
>Trump fails to earn 1,237 delegates by the convention
>Convention becomes contested
Pretty likely
>Establishment tosses Cruz in
>the guy who told senior republican leadership to go fuck themselves, single-handedly shut down the government for petty selfish reasons, and is the most hated person in all of DC
Not a fucking chance.
>>71591955
Not likely. Nobody at all likes Cruz. He cannot win voters.
>>71591955
They will try, but I don't think they will be able to win. Trump has a 300 delegate lead right now. The remaining states seem to favor Trump. If Trump has a 500 or so lead, I really don't think anyone should be able to take the nomination away from him.
>>71591955
100%, Trump will only get the nomination if he gets 1237, the GOP would rather let hillary in the white house than Trump
>>71592410
>he said he won't run
>he said last year he won't be Speaker but he's Speaker now
>don't be snippy
Uhm...
>>71592475
fuck off
>>71592447
The absolute madman knew all along. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, the others, merely pawns. While it may have looked like Jeb got BTFO on a daily basis, usually multiple times, he knew exactly what he was doing. He just wanted to relax up to his the real campaign victory in November. The Republican nomination was in the bag all along.
Really impressive strategy imo, plus Jebposting will be a thing again.
>>71592646
I'LL FUCKING KILL YOU BITCH!
There is absolutely nothing to gain from this. Cruz has no way of winning and Trump's movement will continue because he won't even have to prove himself. Their best bet is to let Trump take over, get their Supreme Court Justice in, and then try to sabotage Trump while he's in office. Either that or shut Trump down completely and hope this whole thing just fizzles out after 4 years of Hillary (It won't).
Electing Cruz says the GOP leadership has lost control of their party and in addition to that he's a guaranteed loss because Democrats already have the "DUDE CHRISTIANITY DUDE REPUBLICANS AM I RIGHT?" media blitz lined up. Cruz is exactly what the Democrats want and when he loses both him and Trump would gain more influence.
>>71592676
JEBHEADS
ASSEMBLE
>>71592410
Shut the fuck up faggot. Go back to r*ddit
>>71592410
hahahhaahaha
>>71592619
Go eat a taco, Jose. We're building a wall if Trump gets elected.
>>71592608
This, the math speaks for itself. They simply won't be able to deny Trump.
>>71592729
>>71592022
>paul ryan
Literaily, I'd rather not vote.
>>71592390
>cruz beats hillary in polling
>donald loses to hillary in polling
why are trumpstafariens so delusional?
>>71592410
kill yourself faggot
It'll be JEB!
SLOW AND STEADY
Why do you think he's endorsing Cruz??
>>71592761
>We're building a wall if Trump gets elected.
>if Trump gets elected
>IF
HOLY SHIT TRUMP FAGS ARE SO ASS BLASTED THEY ARE NO LONGER SURE TRUMP WILL GET ELECTED
>>71592761
>insults the most based mexican proxy of all time
In the event of a brokered convention, the RNC will absolutely will not throw someone in the ring that hasn't run. They're hanging on by a thread with the Republican voters.
If there's a brokered convention, it will almost definitely go for Cruz. I could see unbound delegates going for Kasich if they can be convinced he has the best chance against Clinton.
>>71591955
at this point I have honestly no idea what bullshit the RNC will try to pull, but the aftermath will be hilarious
>>71592909
spic loving jew
>>71591955
Not likely at all. The establishment hates them both and the thought of either of them beating Hillary is equally ludicrous.
>>71591955
I wonder, if Trump did get bumped at a convention, would he run as third party?
>>71592520
romney is possible.
it really WON'T be Ryan though, because he is young and ambitious and WANTS TO BE PRESIDENT, and he knows if he does it this way he will lose and lots of republicans will resent him forever.
>>71592919
>If there's a brokered convention, it will almost definitely go for Cruz.
How can Rato beat Hillary in a general election if he can't even beat Trump? It's illogical.
Republicans rather let Hillary win? It would be too transparent and destroy their party.
>>71592552
this tbqh famm
>>71592881
He's just been out doing really cool things instead of campaigning, which is why he suspended his campaign.
Jeb will still be President in 2016
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/rush-limbaugh-bush-nominee-220805
>If neither Trump nor Ted Cruz win the necessary 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination outright, “I’m here to tell you Jeb Bush is gonna be the nominee,” Limbaugh warned, according to a transcript of his radio show. “That’s what they’re gonna do. That’s what they’ve always wanted.”
>>71591955
they may be scumbag pieces of shit, but they are not stupid.
trump may be "new" to all of this, but this guy is a *world class negotiator who literally wrote the book on deal making*.
as long as trump has more delegates than everyone else, he will absolutely 100% get the nomination. personally, i see him handily getting over 1237 before then anyway so it' a moot point to me.
but in the event that it is a contested convention, and so long as trump has the most delegates, there is 0% chance that they take rat boy over trump.
do not let them brain wash you with the "contested convention" boogeyman. trump has absolutely got this under control. this man is so, SO much smarter than even his supporters give him credit for and when you start to see why for yourself, all you'll do is laugh at all of his dissenters' limp dick efforts to stop him.
in short, there is a 0% chance that trump is not the republican nominee so long as he has the most delegates. i see him getting above 1237 comfortably.
>>71593108
>destroy their party
Republican party was destroyed when the tea party rose to power. Tbh, Reagan would not be accepted in today's Repub party.
YFW both Cruz and Trump go third party
>>71592919
Kasich does have the best chance against Clinton, by a fucking long shot. Trump and Cruz would both be slaughtered.
>>71592372
This was his plan all along!
JEB'S BACK BABY! WHAT AN ABSOLUTE GENIUS!!
S L O W AND
T
E
A
D
Y
>>71593108
>Rato beat Hillary in a general election if he can't even beat Trump? It's illogical.
please tell me you arent actually this retarded
>>71593028
No, it's too late to get ballot access. Deadline's passed in most, if not all states.
>>71593020
The delegates aren't "establishment" by default. The establishment delegates will hold their nose and vote for Cruz. You think they're just going to pack up and go home without voting for anyone?
>>71593078
this could be a problem for whoever they choose. they have to know they will be hated. whoever it is has to be willng to end thier career or just be so likeable already that people can't hate them.
>>71592372
Man, the republicans would have to be ass stupid to throw in Jeb.
I understand they want somebody they can control, but Jeb? Even Hillary would humiliate him on the stage.
>>71591955
I really doubt it, I could see them pumping Kasich out, he's a fucking puppet. I think they'll try to get past the 2nd ticket OR give it to Trump. Trump MAY be malleable, it's an untested question. Cruz has PROVEN he is lightyears from malleable, even among conservative "brethren."
>>71593108
You're trying to compare a primary election and a general election. Cruz has slightly better chances of beating Clinton than Trump does. I'm not anti-Trump, just being honest based on polls.
>>71592022
>>71592240
>>71592390
>>71592424
>>71592601
>the establishment hates Cruz meme
They think he's a douche bag. But they don't hate him enough to count him out. There's a big difference. They still know how to manipulate him.
>>71593317
>No, it's too late to get ballot access. Deadline's passed in most, if not all states.
People can still write in his name.
>>71593179
>citing some blowhard has been radio pundit
ok
>>71593317
>You think they're just going to pack up and go home without voting for anyone?
You think they'll just say "ah fuck it, we'll try again in 4 years lol"
>>71592390
It's mad that they think they can do this and we'll just line up and keep voting Republican. The GOP needs to be purged with fire.
>>71592721
Hardly anyone that supports cruz knows about this. Cruz is already done for, especially with the six northeastern States voting mostly for trump.
Now all he's doing is jeb tier whining while trump keeps moving.
>>71593430
Yea okay, I'm sure they know how to manipulate a man who is trying to get elected on divine mandate.
>>71593430
you're just wrong mane. they just don't think they will lose as bad as with trump. they are mostly worried about down ballot candidates, and they think cruz doesn't hurt them or the long term reputation of the party as much.
>>71591955
>How likely is this?
Not very likely at all, but let's pretend for a sec that it does happen.
Trump voters will be disenfranchised - they will feel as though the nomination was stolen (because it was).
There may be a theoretical path for Cruz to become the Republican nominee, but there is no path for him to become President.
>>71592830
Trump is the only one who will blast Hillary and maybe open some of her non feminist supporters eyes to see the real corrupted lying murderer she really is, either that or we are screwed cause cruz aint doin shit against a woman. All these people wanted a black president and now they want a woman and they dont care which one
>>71593455
No one wins write-in campaigns for dog catcher, much less president of the United States
>>71593499
They're required to vote for someone by law. There's no third option. They don't hate Cruz so much that they're going to start some chaotic revolution.
>>71592172
sup nigger, you ready to build that wall?
>>71593606
> Giant Rat
It's like no one fucking taught you people respect
>>71592721
The Republicans want to lose to Hillary, so they will put Cruz in. The reason for this is because the Chamber of Commerce requires that their legislation be enacted by the opposition party. They could never push through their criminal agenda if a Republican is President during zero interest rates.
>>71593775
>respecting politicians
Let's say they do throw in a new person as the nominee. With zero regard to the plausibility of the choice who would you like to see?
This is mine
>>71593501
Its sad and really sheds light on how corrupt our government is, the only way the country will ever belong to WE THE PEOPLE again is a revolution which wont happen because most of the PEOPLE have been bought, housed, and divided already. Its too late
>>71593606
>Trump voters will be disenfranchised
Totally this! The number one people voting for Trump are white males. The biggest demographic republicans have are white males. If they disenfranchise their biggest voting block they are dead.
>>71592022
This
Cruz and Kasich know exactly what they're doing
They're not running for President anymore. Republican have promised them positions If they can stump Trump.
Fun fact: trump only needs 53% of the delegates left to get to 1,237
>>71594046
Did a fucking arab draw that, illustrating how difficult he finds it to immigrate to our countries? Jesus Christ.
>>71594047
The GOP doesn't need to ever win an election ever again. Being the permanent controlled opposition party is quite profitable, and certain policies the GOP likes but is compelled to oppose to keep their voting base (such as gun control) can be advanced quickly by Democrats.
>>71593945
I think he meant having respect for what was once a good card.
>>71594176
It's 56% but yes It's very much attainable. He wiped the floor in New York and all polling so far looks like he'll do better than expected in the 5 states next week and so far It looks like he'll do far better than expected in California, which will be the sealer or the nail in the coffin
Indiana is a wild card and could be a problem.... it's Winner Take All and It's the last state that Cruz has a chance in
>>71593699
>No one wins write-in campaigns for dog catcher, much less president of the United States
It'll be enough to take votes from the GOP nominee and give Hillary the election.
>>71591955
They're more likely to pick Trump than Cruz if they go to a contested convention. The establishment hates Cruz. They're just helping him fuck Trump and then they'll give it to Paul Ryan.
>YFW Establishment chooses Romney
>YFW Ryan runs as his VP
THE TIME HAS COME!
>>71594225
>GOP secretly wants gun control
We wuz libruls da hole time!
>>71594478
I mean romney would be a million times better than trump or cruz, but that isn't saying much lol.
>>71594500
The only government that doesn't want gun control is the government that relies on militias and levies for war and defense. The United States is not such a country.
The GOP absolutely wants all Americans disarmed, but they can never so much as lift a finger towards that objective and instead must get in the way and hope that when the Democrats win at least half the time they manage to make some progress in that area.
>>71594203
Picture shows that its possible to get rid of all the bullshit we have to deal with, but instead of taking action and dealing with the problems, we just go with the flow, and follow the rest, just like good citizens.
>>71594225
They won't be the opposition party. Who do you think has been electing republicans in the rural areas. Most women are closet libs so it has been white males electing them. Disenfranchising won't come back and bite them on the presidency alone, the reps will take a huge hit in congress.
>>71594642
Again, they can lose almost all their seats and usher in permanent Democratic Party governance country-wide and still keep their cushy jobs as the opposition party that never gets anywhere.
Honestly though, if Trump has 1200 delegates and nearly all of them must stay with him for the first selection, doesn't that mean that he's likely to get the remaining before the second selection where nearly none of the delegates remain loyal?
Isn't it more likely that if it ends up being a convention, Trump will easily win what he's missing?
>>71594432
The establishment hates Trump way more than they hate Cruz. In either case they risk having their party shifted away from their current political alignment and losing control of the Republican voter base, but Trump is an actual threat to the neo-con agenda.
>>71592761
>if
Youre an embarrassment to our God-Emperor.
>>71594619
The government is ultimately comprised of the people. They don't magically become ultra-liberals the moment they step into office.
You're suggesting that nobody in power can support gun rights. By that logic, how did the second amendment come about? How do powerful organizations like the NRA exist? Why do representatives in the GOP actively lobby for less strict gun laws instead of merely doing nothing? Your conspiracy theory doesn't fly in the face of reality.
>>71593430
Cruz is not a Neo-con, he's a Christian Conservative who'd normally have been the wacko candidate in the Republican race if not for Trump stealing all his thunder. Cruz's politics are actually too far right for the mostly neoconservative Republican party, giving him the nom would effectively push them further away from the cozy center that allows them to maintain status quo with the Dems.
>>71594762
Yesterday on the BBC a former RNC official said he had not seen a convention go to multiple revotes in his lifetime. The first vote is effectively it, they had been talking this up as a possible last-ditch resistance to Trump but the numbers are already there.
>>71594994
>center
They're rather on the mid right rather than center.
>>71594907
>The government is ultimately comprised of the people.
Oh, that's cute.
>They don't magically become ultra-liberals the moment they step into office.
The ideology of Power is Power. There is no such thing as a liberal or a conservative in government.
As for how the second amendment came about, it takes time for the rot to set in. There's a short period of a few decades after every revolution or new era of statehood in which the government actually represents the people. The GOP fights against gun control because it's how they get votes. It's okay if they set back gun control efforts because eventually they'll lose (without trying to) and the Democrats will undo everything they did and more. It's a friendly competition with largely mutual interests.
>>71595098
Yeah, so basically, a convention will effectively give Trump the nomination no matter what. Trump might not get the magic perfect number but he'll come so close that he'd easily pick up enough people to win.
>>71595109
I said away from the center, not to imply they're currently at the center. All American mainstream politicians are center-right, with the most radical leftists in our government actually being center-left.
>>71591955
Depends on how close Trump is to the 1237. I think if he's into 1200, Trump will get it.
And no, they won't throw fucking Paul Ryan in. The Ryan and Romney memes were only in there as a test to see how people will accept it. Everyone would hate it.
>>71594176
Not to mention Cruz needs 91%...
>>71591955
trump will earn it but they will pick ryan anyway
>>71595289
Isn't it 103% with Trump at 56%?
Hillary basically also basically needs that same number.
>>71595289
Cruz only needs to win enough to prevent Trump from securing the nomination outright. It was clear from the start that this race was not about who could beat the Donald, it's about preventing his total victory and brokering the convention.
>>71595120
> The GOP fights against gun control because it's how they get votes. It's okay if they set back gun control efforts because eventually they'll lose
You're saying two different things though. You say that the "GOP doesn't need to ever win an election ever again", but then you also say they "care about votes".
>>71595197
As much noise as they're making, I think they learned their lesson with Romney. Culturally they like to complain.
Nobody voted for Romney, but nearly nobody voted for Obama, so had Romney not been so pointedly insulting, he would have won handily.
>>71595555
There is no contradiction. They would prefer to win just as much as the Democrats do, but with changing demographics that isn't likely. Turning into a permanent opposition party that never wins is a Plan B that keeps them fat but isn't ideal. It doesn't seem to be something they can escape, and their elites don't seem too bothered by it considering the Trump sabotage.
>>71591955
It won't be Cruz, but they will probably block Trump from getting the nomination.
cruz mathematically eliminaTED
>>71591955
Establishment likes Trump more than Cruz you fools
>>71595397
>Cruz only needs to win enough to prevent Trump from securing the nomination outright.
And also survive the first ballot. Most delagates must stick with him until the second voting where they can do whatever. If Trump has basically 99% of the votes and only needs 1% of delegates, he can easily get that. It's only during that second vote that Cruz hopes to win, same with Kasich.
Unless the RNC can effectively bully ever delegate to not join Trump, it's pretty much impossible for Cruz to win.
>>71595397
Let me put it this way then:
((845+559+733)/2-845)/733=30.5%
If Trump gets 30.5% and Cruz gets 69.5% of the remaining delegates, Trump still wins by one delegate.
>>71595764
>>71595703
>>71595678
>>71595655
>>71595601
>>71595555
>>71595397
>>71595360
>>71595380
>>71595289
>>71595239
>>71595225
>>71595197
>>71595120
>>71595109
>>71595098
>>71594994
>>71594907
>>71594788
>>71594762
>>71594711
>>71594559
>>71594619
>>71594478
>>71594432
>>71594337
>>71594374
>>71594327
>>71594225
>>71594176
>>71594203
>>71594047
>>71594053
>>71594046
>>71593994
I HAVE MADE THE SMARTEST, MOST INTERESTING AND MOST INFORMED COMMENTS IN THIS THREAD YET THEY ARE BEING IGNORED AND NOT RESPONDED TO. THIS IS WHAT IS WRONG WITH POL NOW. JESUS KIDS LEARN T RESPECT QUALITY COMMENTS.
I can see Trump getting half of the remaining delegates.
I can't see him winning an open convention, however. I bet the delegates that he won are fucking FUMING over being pledged to him. I give el Rato a 50% chance of stealing the cheese at this point.
>>71594053
What are you doing in Australia Marco Rubio
>>71595975
If you're looking for upboats you don't belong here. Take your autism and gtfo.
>>71595857
>Trump still wins by one delegate.
And then gets his shit pushed in at the convention.
>moral victories in primary elections
>>71596078
Speaking of Rubio...
That is the one I would wager on, for the RNC to plant Rubio in the contested nomination. If you remember, when Rubio list FL, he merely SUSPENDED his campaign, he did not end it, and he licked his delegates, so they could not be shifted elsewhere.
I think the better question is, if that does happen, how should Trump supporters vote?
It would be abundantly clear that the GOP doesn't care for, or represent us at that point, so party loyalty would be for cucks.
Voting Trump would be a good way to make a statement (Especially if he manages an actual third party run), but there's a part of me that would be pissed enough to vote Shillary just to spite the GOP.
I've already come to terms with the fact that I have to vote Dem on everything else, but I'm torn between third party and crooked Hillary. Wat do /pol/?
>>71595975
party rules exclude everyone but cruz or trump, no reason to speculate until that rule changes. (must have won a few states)
>>71596133
i'm not a redditor, i just want feedback and conversation. fuck it is hard being the smartest one on a board.
>>71596579
Heh, he locked his delegates...
>>71596625
>>71596376
I meant for the numbers to show how unlikely it is for Cruz to even come close to Trump's numbers. I doubt Trump would only win by one delegate, but even that would be enough to possibly make Republicans mad. Even if Trump and Cruz were virtually tied into the RNC, I am sure Cruz would be pushed ahead somehow.
>>71596625
Hey, I thought you said all the posters you replied to were the smartest in the thread? :'(
>>71596625
You're just a literal faggot.
>>71596601
>Hillary and Cruz aren't the same establishment flagship
Make your statement, Anon. Regardless of success.
>>71596968
no im bi
>>71597031
They are part of the same establishment flagship; however, at the very least, the Democrats don't pacify the right in this country and keep them bound to dead ideologies.
If that happens, I'd probably just end up waiting to see polling for my state. If Cruz gets close, I'll vote Hillary. If she's nearly guaranteed to win, I'll write in Trump.
>>71591955
It is amazing how cruz cant see that his actions will only destroy his career as governor of texas. And regardless of what he does he will never be president.
He is effectively destroying his career
>>71597300
>Cruz
>governor of Texas
wew lad. I sure hope he loses his senate race, but that's not until 2016, so this whole mess could blow over.
>>71597462
>2016
Fuck 2018 obviously.
>>71592022
Dubs of truth, Cruz and his retarded followers are just puppets.
TRUMP ISN'T GOING TO WIN.
SANDERS ISN'T GOING TO WIN.
The Presidential election will be between Ted Cruz and Hilary Clinton.
People will finally realize that its all rigged and preplanned no one on the outside of big money politics has a chance.
>>71597462
Well there is no chance they will elect him senator ever again, governor is the best he could have hoped to do, till he started accepting fake delegates.
>>71591955
What happens is it will go to a second ballot. Rubo's delegates and some of the bound delegates get freed up. Rince and repeat.
However, the more bound delegates you have going in, the better the odd. Trump would really have to show a lot of incompetence and doubt to lose. There is nothing the est can do. It's going to be either Cruz or Trump, but who will have the advantage won't be decided until all the states vote.
>>71595555
Quads, nice!
>>71595975
Cry harder, faggot!
>>71598334
read what i said again moron.
>>71592410
you must've taken a wrong turn, reddit is the other way friend
>>71592410
>snippy
>>71598436
Fuck you.
>>71594046
That's one of the worst political cartoons I've ever seen.
What the fuck is that nigga gunna do with that fire axe versus a brick wall? We the audience are suppose to side with a fucking retard.
>>71598615
here's your reply.
>>71592022
I thought this before, but not anymore. I think they're legitimately afraid of Trump, and tossing out both Trump and Cruz would piss too many people off. It would basically destroy the party right then and there. Trump could run 3rd party and take the republican base with him, pick someone like Webb as his VP and who knows, he might actually make it to the Whitehouse.
If they stick with Cruz it'll divide the republican base. Trump can't run 3rd party then without pissing people off, and Cruz will most likely lose to Hillary which the establishment wouldn't really mind all that much.
>>71598794
Good girl.
>>71596601
>I'm going to vote Hillary to spite the Republicans!
They are literally on the same team.
>>71592380
>Implying Trump will follow through with that deal when he's a whisker away from being the fucking President
bitch please. He's seen too much now.
