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Anonymous
Just a reminder that General Elections DO matter at this point
2016-04-11 20:38:51 Post No. 70661544
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Just a reminder that General Elections DO matter at this point
Anonymous
2016-04-11 20:38:51
Post No. 70661544
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Educate yourself for once in your lives, low IQ Trumptards.
>Wlezien is the co-author, with Robert Erikson of Columbia, of The Timeline of Presidential Elections, a political science book that provides an invaluable guide for anyone trying to make sense of polling data.
>The authors found that around 300 days before the election (mid-January), general election polls are essentially meaningless — their predictive value is close to zero. But by the time we get to mid-April of the election year, polls explain about half the variance in the eventual vote split. And mid-April polls have correctly "called" the winner in about two-thirds of the cases since 1952.
>That means that poll changes between January and April have often told us a great deal. "A meaningful portion of changes in preferences during this period tend to stand the test of time and impact the election result," Erikson and Wlezien write.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/31/11336884/donald-trump-polls-winning
