So, what does /pol/ think about The Next 100 Years? It's a book by George Friedman from STRATFOR, written in 2008. It predicted Russian invasion of Georgia and a proxy war in Ukraine.
And it makes quite a lot of bold predictions for the coming century:
>the decline of western Europe due to inability to integrate immigrants
>fragmentation of Russia in the late 2020s, and India in 2030s.
>the end of China's growth because of advancements in robotics
>Japan emerging as the second superpower around 2040.
>emergence of two new great powers - Polish-led Intermarium in Europe and Turkey (which will directly control most of Arabic countries)
>growing hostilities between USA and Mexico
>America militarizing space.
>the end of global warming concerns due to orbital solar plants beaming energy to Earth in the form of microwave radiation which will halt the use of fossil fuels.
>World War III around 2050 between two blocks - USA and it's allies in Central and Eastern Europe on one side, and Japan-Turkey block on the other.
Apparently the book (particularly the part about World War III) is being made into a movie by Sam Raimi.
So what does /pol/ think about those predictions.
>inb4 Poland stronk
>inb4 Friedman is a jew
>>70658236
Sounds pretty legit. China will advance thanks to genetic modification too. West will be more reluctant to jump on that boat because of muh feels, which will ultimately only doom us further into oblivion.
>>70658236
Has there EVER been a good futurist book?
Like anything written 30+ years ago that you can read and go "Wow, this guy nailed it" without resorting to shoehorning vaguely similar details?
>>70658236
America vs Roach-Nip alliance
MY BODY IS FUCKING READY
>>70658236
friendly reminder that the internet will render elected representatives obsolete one fine day.
currently we live in the age of internet infancy where our equally infantile political aspirations haven't seen us past the ability to meme and clown on each other
once fully realized, the internet will effectively render humans telepathic, thereby negating the need for elected officials to enact policy in our own political absence
but until that glorious day arrives and we drive the corruption out of our political system i say this:
MEME ON YOU BEAUTIFUL BASTARDS! MEME ON!
Russia will never collapse. The Citizens remember the horrors of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and will never allow such to occur again. When a Russia is determined for something, then the Russin gets it. Nothing beats Russian determinism and patriotism for homeland.
>>70658236
>georgia
no such invasion
>ukraine
no such thing
>>70658812
The moral reversal after the Cold War is painful. The United States are literally the bad guys in Syria.
>inb4 the United States were always the bad guys
Keep in mind it was Soviet support that put fucking assholes like the Kim dynasty in place.
>>70658577
yeah mate, watch the timeline though. you got 30 years, take care.
>>70658812
Yeah, but Friedman argues that the fragmentation will happen because of ethinic divisions. A number of regions in Russia will become independent or highly autonomous simply because there will be no ethinic Russians there, and the cost of maintaining integrity through military will be too high.
>>70659173
It's the opposite, though. If anything the Georgian and Ukrainian crisis has been happening because there were more Russian people than there was Russian soil under their feet.
By that logic all Russia is liable to lose are some of the more chink-ridden segments of Siberia that they've never given a fuck about, not their massive European power center.
>>70658531
Brave New World.
>people don't care enough about their rights to privacy because we get so much entertainment
>cameras on every corner, but an electronic gizmo in every hand
>people enslaved by happiness and idol laziness
>>70659173
But none of those reasons will be able to feasibly survive, just look at majority of -stans today. They are all laughing stocks economically. There's a reason why many of those from there are fleeing and leaving to Russia, making Russia the second largest recipient of immigrants after America.
Russia will just grow, not shrivel away. Belarus, Northern Kazakhstan (maybe even all of it) will all probably be part of Russia in 20 years from now. South Ossetia will be having a Russian-approved referendum to finally join the Russian federation.
Russia is strong and will remain strong.
>>70658236
>>the decline of western Europe due to inability to integrate immigrants
>>fragmentation of Russia in the late 2020s, and India in 2030s.
>>the end of China's growth because of advancements in robotics
>>Japan emerging as the second superpower around 2040.
>>emergence of two new great powers - Polish-led Intermarium in Europe and Turkey (which will directly control most of Arabic countries)
Literally nostradamus tier. Friedman is a plagiarist.
>>70658531
I guess that Heinlein's "Solution Unsatisfactory" falls into that category. He predicted nuclear weapons, the cold war and the doctrine of mutually assured destruction.
I get your point that long term predictions are almost impossible. However, it's hard not to notice, that STRATFOR is spot on with their short-term prognosis.
>>70659575
regions* not reasons, sorry
>>70658236
>written in 2008
You mean 2009.
>It predicted Russian invasion of Georgia and a proxy war in Ukraine.
Georgia was in 2008. Also EU and NATO started approaching them long before that time, so it was easy to predict that we will have to react and shit will happen.
>>70659173
Which regions? Only Caucasus has significant ethnic majority and it has been mostly pacified for the time being. The other regions have 90%+ Russian or people that consider themselves Russian majority.
>>70658236
>>growing hostilities between USA and Mexico
Fuck mexico, they are an enemy nation and we should not be doing any business with them.
>>70658236
>Turkey and Japan vs US and Eastern Europe
wat
Even if the US goes into decline what exactly is going to drive a wedge between the US and Japan and what are Japan and Turkey going to build their alliance on beyond possible weapon exports?
>>70658531
It's kinda funny, they're both French.
Michel Houellebecq's "Submission"
And
Jean Raspail's "The Camp of the Saints"
>>70659957
>what exactly is going to drive a wedge between the US and Japan
Don't they secretly hate us?
>>70659957
America and Japan will both build giant military robots, then fight them against eachother in a mock battle, when japan loses because they tried too much to make theirs an anime they'll lose their shit and bomb us.
>>70658236
>Japan emerging as the second super power around 2040
Didn't we already debunk this shit back in the 90s?
Honestly, I'd love to see Japan have another economic boom just to see anime studios grow more experimental again.
>>70658236
It's hilarious.
>>70658236
>growing hostilities between Mexico and new Mexico
Kek
>>70658236
>roaches and other sandniggers as a 'great power'
>ending global warming by heating the earth with microwave radiation
Those 2 are just a big no
>>70658236
>beaming mircowave radiation
why wouldnt that be absorped by molecules in the atmosphere?
>>70658236
>Japan and Turkey as allies fighting a World War
kek
>>70660080
>Don't they secretly hate us?
No, and even if they did it takes a lot more than secret hate to sink the kind of alliance the US and Japan share. They're definitely in the top 3 closest allies of the US.
>>70660081
This is a plausible scenario.
>>70659665
Written in 2008, published in 2009. Friedman has been saying that invasion of Georgia is imminent since the Saakashvili regained power, so the point stands.
Though I agree, saying that there's going to be a war was a safe bet.
Read book. It's solid. It's all based on historical trends. The guy makes bold predictions all founded in logic and history.
>>70658236
Why is it everything is somewhat reasonable until we get to
>the end of global warming concerns due to orbital solar plants beaming energy to Earth in the form of microwave radiation which will halt the use of fossil fuels.
>>70658236
>growing hostilities between USA and Mexico
Bullshit
>>70660080
Not when you remind them of lil ol Enola Gay
top kek
>>70659145
Gay. I'll be almost 60
>>70660809
That's maybe the most reasonable thing in there. A large orbital solar array would have the two-fold effect of reducing fossil fuel use and blocking direct sun from hitting the earth.
>>70660902
China's economy is the biggest factor in their future what happens to it determines what happens to China
>>70658369
They might be doing this research in secret.
>>70658531
Brave New World
It's chilling how right it is
>>70659957
>>70660080
According to Friedman it's going to be the same thing, that causes tensions between America and China right now. The US is going to counter Japanese attempts at expanding its sphere of influence in East Asia and Australia. Thus, the conflict will be inevitable. According to Friedman America will never allow another maritime empire to emerge.
>>70661220
If they are out government definitely is
>>70661109
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/511016/a-cheap-and-easy-plan-to-stop-global-warming/
>Japan going to war with the US
It would take a pretty drastic change on their part to want to go to war with us, at the moment they're the most pro-US country on Earth.
>>70660245
I think you could see some Kosovo/South Ossetia unrest in the South-West USA. States like Arizona, California and New Mexico already have massive immigrant presences.
>>70658236
Pretty fun read
But we'll have to wait and see if anything comes true
>>70660081
>>70660690
That's happening this year.
If you weren't aware of this YOUR prediction is amazing.
The Japanese robot is more expensive, has much more advanced electronics, is more intricately designed, and everyone already knows that the American robot is going to push it's shit in because the American robot is basically a regular construction vehicle turned vertical.
>>70658236
A briefer outline of what our Department of Defense wants to occur in the world in the next 20 years (Friedman wrote another book, "The Next 20 Years" that covered the first 20 years of this book in-depth) dressed up as independent reporting, followed by random brain farts about what happens after. This is the same guy who thought back in 1991 that we would go to war with Japan. The book is a blatant cash grab but it's fun to read even if his track record on predicting the future has been a bunch of swings and misses. I should give him some credit since he knows how to explain what's happening in the here and now.
>>70658236
friedman is a fucking god.
stratfor delivers brilliant insights and spins on daily events, fucking love. so brilliant that even goldmans bought part his business for their macro desk to get further insights in how it affects future developments. love this guy.
> inb4 jews
>>70661269
Japan won't be able to make another sphere like in the 1900s we both need teach other to counter china who hates both
>>70658531
1984
>>70658531
>The Circle
aside from all the interracial emma watson propaganda
that's a new book but obviously nothing can EVER compare to Brave New World.
Read "We" too
>>70658236
lol. No. STRATFOR. Once an attention whore, always an attention whore...and STRATFOR are first rate attention whores. If intelligence firms were people, STRATFOR would be on Instagram all day every day taking selfies by the pool. One day, you'd wonder, "What the fuck am I doing with my life, staring at this vapid, self-absorbed, lifestyle obsessed individual with no substance and nothing to offer?" And then you'd probably masturbate and keep following them just because...
They're decent (and that's being generous) for short term predictions...but so is everyone.
Next time, do what you should do when you see the source:
"STRATFOR? Ignore."
>>70660013
>Michel Houellebecq's "Submission"
"The novel, a political satire, imagines a situation in which a Muslim party upholding traditionalist and patriarchal values leads the 2022 vote in France and is able to form a government with the support of France's Islamo-Leftist Socialist Party."
it might end up becoming reality not satire
>>70661265
>>70659404
Nah, Brave New World has it's parallels in the modern West but the idea that the modern Western model could be used as a global government is retarded.
Presumably in Brave New World there's a "Muslim reservation" with a couple billion Muslims living in it and nobody considered the possibility that the Muslims would just leave this exile and murder all the nihilistic cucks living everywhere else.
>>70660081
The book literally says that America will build "Battlestars" in space, and Japan will destroy them with asteroids thrown from their secret moon bases
While that happens, Poland and Turkey will fight with meca-warriors, and Turkey will lose because the US is going to blot out their solar powering stations
So you're not that far off
I take it you guys are all too young to know who Alvin Tofler is then?
>>70661757
The central premise of 1984 is that Stalinism would become the world's dominant ideology, thank fuck that never happened
>>70661879
US = Brave New World
Europe = Muslim reservation
Seems accurate to me.
>>70658236
>Poland posting
Well I know this year Stratfor said Germany would fall in the next 5 years and Poland would rise.
So I guess you want it to happen.
I think his WW3 prediction is way off because Japan will not side with Turkey. It would be the other way around.
>>70661548
Sorry, the other book is The Next Decade regarding the next 10 years
>>70661220
It's not even in secret. Gene Splicing is a big thing at the moment. For "disease prevention".
Inb4 libcucks declare war and destroy USA
>>70661269
I find that claim highly suspect. For Japan to become a naval super power in 25 years they'd have to be building supercarriers and training their crews in secret right now. Developing the expertise to engage in long range naval force project isn't something you can develop overnight.
>>70661852
The scary thing is that the point of Soumission is that there will be NO final conflict between secularism and Islam, instead the secularists will rush to Islam to save them from "the mean old Neo-Nazis"
In the book the "mainstream" French parties ALL decide to throw their lot in with Sharia rather than see Marine La Pen win the election.
The best historical parallel I can think of to this is actually South Africa, where de Klerk basically chose to crash his country with no survivors and accept a place as Mandela's toadie rather than face electoral defeat at the hands of other whites.
Actually, come to think of it, the Republicans in the US are making similar calculations right now, since it seems like many of them are actually much more comfortable with Hillary Clinton in office than Donald Trump.
>>70658236
>>the end of global warming concerns due to orbital solar plants beaming energy to Earth in the form of microwave radiation which will halt the use of fossil fuels.
Holy shit that would be so fucking cool
>>70658369
China's hivemind makes genetic engineering "for the greater good"
The West's "muh feels" like anon said will stop us
Doesn't mean that China will overtake us, though. Just means that their genes will probably continue to dominate the human gene pool
.......those pig fuckers
>>70661269
Isn't China building like 3 aircraft carriers atm? Idk how we're stopping that.
>>70662732
funny thing I recently read about South Africa, they actually developed a nuke on their own, their whites that is, and they destroyed the program seeing what political shift is coming, that blacks are taking over. Smart men.
>>70660245
But anon, this is already happening
>>70661265
>>70661879
Nah, I think anon is right. We have our soma. We banned Muslims and mudskins to their shitty lives.
We just didn't expect (and I guess Huxley didn't either) that the mudskins would figure out they could just leave their camps and fuck with us
>>70658894
> no invasion of Georgia
You off your meds? Russia definitely invaded Georgia during the South Ossetian war.
>>70658236
A quick google turned up a free .pdf copy of the book at the US Library of Congress
You're welcome, anons
http://www.mysearch.org.uk/website1/pdf/715.2.pdf
>>70663019
And Israel were the biggest supporters of the Afrikaners nuclear program because apparently it was Opposite Day
>>70658236
>Jew assures us that the Zionists have no plans to take over by 2050
S-sure thing.
>>70658236
>>Japan emerging as the second superpower around 2040.
Nope.
>>emergence of two new great powers - Polish-led Intermarium in Europe
This might actually happen looking at the East/West EU split.
>Turkey (which will directly control most of Arabic countries)
Not a fucking chance. This guy didn't see IS and Syria happen, did he?
The Middle East will never be tamed unless they get some combination Hitler and Muhammed to unite the clans.
>America militarizing space.
This already happened, they just didn't tell anyone.
>the end of global warming concerns due to orbital solar plants beaming energy to Earth in the form of microwave radiation
When political authors try to make shit up about climate and technology you get this bungled fuckwit.
>World War III around 2050 between two blocks - USA and it's allies in Central and Eastern Europe on one side, and Japan-Turkey block on the other.
No, no, no.
We're seeing WWIII starting. The split is east/west, again. The kicker this time is a roving band of marauders called the middle east.
>>70660542
>>70660809
>>70660534
You can set up a frequency that will prevent any energy absorbtion by the atmosphere. After all we are right now using microwaves for certain types of radio communication, and it's not heating up anything.
>>70662923
Maybe they'll be made by incompetent mainland contractors to help line the pockets of corrupt officials so they'll take care of themselves?
>>70658236
>the one guy left in Japan is going to be a superpower with his robowaifu army
Neat
>>70661990
Is that true? Holy fuck. That is based if it is.
>>70663288
counter-invaded
>World War III around 2050 between two blocks - USA and it's allies in Central and Eastern Europe on one side, and Japan-Turkey block on the other.
Japan still an OG
Japan still the master race
Japan still fighting the good fight
I just hope by than the cockroaches have evolved to something better. If they're helping Japan than there all good.
>>70666371
>implying South Ossetia and Abkhazia weren't Georgian territory.
>>70658236
Australia Doesn't even get a significant look in.
>>70668311
Everything goes to shit Australia avoid the disaster because no one wants to confront the shit posting might of the entire Aussie nation
>>70663715
They've already taken over. The happening will be whether or not we throw them off, or they assume direct control.
>>70661990
> polish mecha warriors defeating turks
I know where I want to migrate for the race wars now, thanks.
>>70660690
Behind Isreal of course
>>70668964
I wish it were so.
But based on what this authors predicts we could see a huge rise in the number of boat people
>>70669614
Obviously. Who could forget our greatest ally.
>>70669665
At that point you could probably shoot them or build a storm generator
>>70658531
The Hunger Games
>>70662486
> Implying Japan has no experience building aircraft carriers and organizing naval aviation
>>70670824
Supercarrier operation and long range force project are an entirely different set of skills and doctrine than operating helicopter and VTOL carriers for coastal defense.
>>70671048
I was referring more along the lines of Operation 'Climb Mount Nitaka'.
>>70658236
>mfw Korea (worst Korea) will become the main ally of the US in Asia as whole b/c of Japan and China collapsing
Idk. Sounds not too bad for me.
>>70661220
and you think usa doesnt? the only difference is that the technology will be released for public use much faster
usa has been doing human experiments for more than half a century
>>70671365
That knowledge is about 70 years out of date. Despite popular claims to the contrary war does change.
here's a list of all books and authors mentioned in this thread:
the next 100 years - George Friedman
brave new world - aldous huxley
solution unsatisfactory - robert a. heinlein
submission - michel houellebecq
1984 - georgr orwell
the hunger games - suzanne colllins
other authors: nostradamus, alvin tofler
