http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/
Go ahead. Try. He's done for. Cruz or Kasich will be our nominee.
Why should Cruz or Kasich be the nominee when they can't get to 1237 either?
>>70085356
Wow, Pennsylvania, only has 17......
This is my dream election, not only would Trump win but the Republican/Democratic hegemony would die.
>>70085450
Who the fuck knows, it'll be up to the RNC who they nominate and all they can argue is that Trump didn't meet the requirements and therefore wasn't supported by a majority of Republicans. Therefore they can nominate whoever they think would be a better candidate to represent their party. It's their rules.
>>70085356
It's amazing how you shills have shifted the goalposts. Trump is going to finish in first place by a mile, whether or not gets to 1237. But, somehow, that's failure, even though a while ago, you said Trump was a sideshow.
Trump has a great chance at getting the nomination, even if he falls short of 1237. Trump knows how to deal with these RNC people.
>>70085832
Which will be Paul Ryan.
>>70085903
Based Brit.
>>70085732
Cruz would destroy Trump in many of those gold states. Cruz would lose in VA to Hillary and Trump would lose MI to Sanders.
>>70085732
the house of representatives picks the winner if no one reaches 270
>>70085931
Yes, they're going to nominate Paul Ryan. Not like that would completely destroy their party and lose them all their power.
>>70085903
Based Brit speaks the truth.
>>70085732
Cruz wins you idiot. The House votes if nobody gets to 270.
>>70085450
exactly this, if trump beats cruz/kasich, which he's still doing even if you put kasich's and cruz's votes together, he should be the nominee. If they steal it from him there will be a revolution that will permanently destroy the republican party.
>>70085931
He wouldn't accept it. He's a rising star big time, he has a chance to run for President on his own terms with a potentially successful House Majority Leader title under his arms. If he takes the nominee now then half the party will hate him and any future chance he has will be destroyed. It's in his best interest to stay out of the mess that will be at a contested convention.
>>70086011
That's case if they decide to deny Trump, might as well rig the most establishment-candidate possible
>>70085903
Who's your daddy?
If any market research types are looking at social media forums, frantically trying to figure out if something on the order of 1 million people really will be proactively angry if the RNC steals the nomination from Trump, then the answer is yes. At least.
>>70086158
His entire career he's said he didn't want a job, and then takes it anyways.
>>70085356
It doesn't matter anymore. The RNC will end up picking Trump anyways.
They've had their fun joking about a contested convention, but now that it's getting close they realize they can't just brush Trump aside anymore.
Funny too because it's the exact same behavior that made Trump the front runner and put them in this situation
>>70085356
The RNC has a choice; choose Trump have a good chance of losing the election (no matter what /pol/ says), or burn him and commit suicide.
They're going to choose Trump and go into full damage control from November on.
>>70085732
You stupid faggot this would still result in a Republican president picked by the House.
>>70085356
I get 1208, but it excludes some of PA's because they aren't strickly bound on the 1st ballot oddly. So Trump would need 30ish of the unbound delegates, of which their would be hundreds, to vote for him on the 1st ballot to get it over with. Very doable.
>>70085356
With the expert prediction, he'd need 36 uncommitted delegates to out of 125 to be the nominee.
I think that's possible.
>>70086341
Trump could potentially fuck up Republicans down the ticket though, which would take time to heal, especially with demographics growing against them at the same time. The good thing is that it could give them an opportunity to redefine the party which they've needed, but it'll take some time.
If they deny Trump, they could save face despite losing massive support from within, but it's easier for local and state republicans to save face. The only people in trouble then would be the Republican leaders. The party could jump back quickly from this, but they'll have to keep in mind that these Trump voters won't disappear. The party would need to replace their leaders, which could again help redefine the party, but without completely rejecting new voters like the first option.
Denying Trump would be better for the party in the long run, but either way they're fucked for the short term.
>>70087035
58.
You have to take into account Wisconsin being 3 rather than what the "experts" said.
GOP must know by now that their weaksauce bland android candidates like Yeb! and Rubio were never going to get them anywhere. I hope there are more guys like Gingrich in control of things up there who can tell what is actually going on rather than the Rick Wilson's who just want to lose gracefully so they can wank off about how respectable they are.
>>70087117
Republicans moving towards the middle will never get them votes. Immigrants will always vote democrat and democrats will always call republicans racist.
There is no winning move for Republicans with the current demographic change. The democrats have branded themselves as the gold standard progressive party and even if the republicans locked their dicks up and sucked bbc they would never be more progress than the democrats.
>>70087117
>especially with demographics growing against them at the same time.
this is why Trump needs to win and put in an Andrew Jackson platform where he rams the Mexican Removal Act through congress and makes the US back to 90% white overnight
can he bribe uncommitted delegates?
looks like hes going to need them
>>70087339
Not towards the middle. They should get more libertarian and less socially evangelically conservative. They can keep the anti-immigration. But that won't happen either cause the last thing the party would do after losing Trump supporters is lose the evangelical supporters as well. The GOP is fucked.
>>70087422
>mexican removal act
That will never happen. Ever.
Even if you get rid of all the illegals they're still be a substantial hispanic population. There's ~55million Hispanics and ~12million illegals.
>>70087422
It's too late. Too many LEGAL immigrants are a part of our society already and you won't ever be able to get rid of all the illegals.
>>70087639
With the current demographic trends it doesn't matter what they run on, that's what I'm saying. Most non-whites vote democrat. Once whites become a minority The US starts electing open Communists and resembles Brazil.
Elections here are all about brands. Most people are stupid and vote for one party because they heard the other is bad. Democrats know how to brand Republicans as bad better than Republicans know how to brand Democrats.
They don't care about platforms they care about free shit.
>>70087695
>>70087694
Don't be a bunch of pussy faggots. You guys need a Trail of Tears 2.0 all the way back to Tijuana.
>>70085903
>But, somehow, that's failure,
It objectively IS, going by the GOP's rules
If trump doesn't reach 1237, they will do everything in their power to make sure he's not the nominee
>>70088403
They really won't, dude. They're not retarded.
>>70086172
Yeah but as hst said any politician that can smell the white house turns into a bitch in heat
>>70088045
You sound very biased. I think Republicans can in fact evolve to better suite new demographics while still being conservative. They just need to drop muh Reagan and muh jesus. Be against the war on drugs. Be for a healthcare plan that is universal, but uses the free market. Be for funding more trades to counter the Democrats' college push. Think outside of the box instead of living in the past.
Kind of like what Paul Ryan said a while ago about not thinking all poor people are just lazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C221531pF4c
>>70088636
Meant for
>>70086158
>>70088403
>If trump doesn't reach 1237, they will do everything in their power to make sure he's not the nominee
literally all marketing so trump supporters stay on their toes and involved in the process.
>>70085450
Because Cruz actually has the ability to micromanage and get his people as delegates, something that Trump is extremely pathetic at. All getting 1237 before the convention would mean, is that that person automatically becomes the nominee, as the delegates, even if they loath the candidate they are bound to (in this case, Trump) have to vote for him.
If Trump doesn't get 1237 before the convention, all of his delegates, save one or two states, become unbound and can support one of the other candidates, of whom only Cruz has met the requirement of earning a majority of delegates in 8 states to earn the nomination.
Which is why Trump needs 1237 before the convention, otherwise he is fucked. Cruz has out-organized, out-played, and tailored his campaign based on the state he was running in, all areas that Trump can't compete in.
>>70088655
I'm only 99% sure this is sarcasm
>>70085356
Which means the gop is done.. oh if only you could look into the future and see what will happen if trump isn't elected.. in a way its fun to see everything turn to shit, predicting bad stuff right for the last 2 years while you can do nothing about it was initaly like a fucking curse.. but now i just laugh at how blind people really are the more that get hurt the funnier if its a refugee welcome cunt even better..
It will be the next doomed generations problems anyway.. just be ready for your children to curse you on your death bed for what you let happen.
I think the one chart said he needs about 52% of the remaining delegates to get the magic number.
It's possible, especially considering NY and CA are pro-Trump at the moment and they're both winner-take-all.
>>70085356
Most of the polling for NY and CA was done way back when Rubio and Jeb were still running.
If Trump dominates those two states and sweeps all the little WTA/WTM contests in the Northeast like DE, NJ, etc he can get to within striking distance.
A big upset in WA, OR, or ID could push him over, but it will probably come down to winning over one or two dozen unpledged delegates for the first ballot.
>>70085356
That's fine, it's either trump or the GOP loses in a landslide not seen in years.
>>70086011
The GOP is like a stolen car in GTA. The Jews who hijacked it don't give a fuck if it gets smashed-up. They'll wreck it and then hijack something else.
They'll use their control of media too spoin the new creation into the exact same fucking place the GOP was in in no time. Destroying the party means nothing to them.
>>70087694
True, but you're still talking about deporting almost 18% of the hispanic population.
>>70089563
This is the most /pol/ tier visual metaphor ever.
>>70085356
>Did anyone else read that as "Can Trump get 1337 delegates?
Like what? Is Trump supposed to be an eben 12 year-old leet master hacker?
>>70085356
Seems there's plenty of ways to get him there, I don't know what you're all excited about Wisconsin was your do or die state not ours.
>>70085356
Sorry, but you're at least three different types of fag/retard.
1. He is still likely to reach 1237: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/30/upshot/trump-clinton-delegate-calculator.html
2. If he doesn't, neither Cruz nor Kasich will be the nominee. Paul Ryan will be nominated on the fourth ballot unless Trump makes it on one of the first three. If you don't grasp and know this, you're literally stealing air and should end your fucking life immediately.
>>70085903
Can't Trump just MAKE A DEAL with them at the convention?
Add some RNC toadies to his campaign to help him with some of his weaknesses, take on an establishment golden boy to be his VP (which could've been rubio if it weren't for the dick insults), make some concessions, etc?
At this point i dont give a shit if it were that loser mitt romney as the candidate. I just want someone who can BEAT THE COMMIE KIKE AND WHORE OF BABYLON. And I think Trump has the best chance.
>>70089627
All the more reason for Trump to pull a more unexpected move after the convention and start courting independent voters and moderate democrats.
The DNC expects Trump to keep up the far right act the whole general election and make their job easy... going center/center-right will completely through the Dems off their game, especially with how much far left, anti-white, anti-working class horseshit they've been pushing
>>70089627
if bernie ran 3rd party as well it would be a pretty interesting election
>>70085356
He can easily get to 1237. Here's some math for you.
>>70087117
If they fuck over Trump I'm voting for every Dem down ticket out of spite, I'm pretty sure a good chunk of Trump supporters agree with my sentiments. They'll lose it all, leave not a single crumb for those backstabbing fucks.
This is a pretty realistic scenario. We're on thin ice though.
>>70089893
>WY
>14
Let's at least be realistic, anon.
>>70089694
Ryan will be the nominee and one or both of the other shitheels will run Independent-- perhaps they will even pretend to be surprised and outraged to make it seem more spontaneous-- just to fuck over Trump harder and make sure Hillary gets the WH.
>>70089644
no one read it like that
>>70088520
They're not retarded but they are absolutely petty as shit. You're sorely underestimating how fucking greedy and petty Neocon Republicans are. They're everything wrong with boomers distilled into fundie Christian bullshit who worship Reagan as if he was the second coming of Jesus.
These people are utterly insane and have no qualms about fucking over the average American if it means holding onto the reins of power for just a little longer. Only if they do this, they will destroy the party. Americans are absolutely sick of their bullshit.
Happenings will happen in July if they do throw Trump under the bus.
>>70089896
The point of fucking over Trump is not to win, but to make certain that Hillary wins. It's not about R vs D -- it's about Jewish globalists versus Trump the nationalist. Getting people to elect a Democrat, Hillary, is the GOP's goal at this point.
>>70090065
All of the candidates they've fielded have collapsed and been rejected by the voters though. They simply don't have the capital or the backing to do anything other than hand it to Trump at this point. I will be very shocked if something like what you're saying happens. They probably *want* to do that, but I have faith that when push comes to shove, they see which way the wind is blowing and know that if they were going to stop him, their best chances have all been behind them and failed.
>>70090020
The original post said nothing about being realistic, it claims that there is no way to get to 1237.
I have proved in fact that he can get to 1237. There are plenty of delegates left. He only needs approximately 56% of delegates left.
Cruz needs 80%
Kasich needs over 130%
So really the only candidate who can't rationally meet the limit is Kasich.
If you were to bet money on anything would you take a 44% chance of winning or a 20%.
>you can't even into basic math
>>70090280
> it's about Jewish globalists versus Trump the nationalist.
>>70087117
>The good thing is that it could give them an opportunity to redefine the party which they've needed
You know, that is actually a great point that not many people are talking about. The establishment GOP feels that the party has been hijacked by the tea party movement. This civil war has pretty much killed off that movement considering that Ted and Rubio were the tea party golden boys. Problem is that an even bigger movement is threatening them. I think it would be a bitter sweet victory for them to shake off the base of both of these populist movements.
Trump needs to build momentum and have a blowout in Calif and that would do it. Cruz needs to fade. Its possible.
>>70090360
Well I'm convinced. Im now a CruzMissile. You've earned your half a shekel, sir. Well shilled.
>>70089400
CA is pretty competitive at the moment and we're still a good ways away from that contest. The troubling thing for Trump is that Cruz campaign has been organizing in CA since last August. Trump can't afford to take CA for granted.
>>70085732
>>70086001
>>70086065
>>70086460
The whole system crashes if this happens.
It doesn't matter who the House chooses at this point, because people fucking HATE the House of Representatives almost as much as they hate Congress. Add in the fact that 75% of people won't get the President they picked, and you're looking at the least approved of President in the history of the country.
We narrowly avoided riots after Bush stole the presidency in 2000, because Gore conceded defeat instead of fighting it in the Supreme Court.
Trump would not concede defeat. It would go to the Supreme Court... where it would end in a split 4-4 decision because congress hasn't nominated a justice. After that, people would be even MORE pissed because the House stole the presidency and Congress stole justice.
Government approval ratings would tank to the lowest we've ever seen, people would be openly rioting in the streets, politicians would get assassinated - basically, if it turns into a 4-way race it's the end of America as we know it.
It's pretty exciting, isn't it?
>>70089997
Remember the rat and the mormon are out stealing delegates from states he's already won as well.
Is Kasich drops out it's all ogre right?
>>70090996
>where it would end in a split 4-4 decision because congress hasn't nominated a justice.
If it ends in a 4-4 split then the district court ruling is upheld. Anyway, your scenario is complete fantasy since Bernie has already said he'd support Hillary if she's the nominee. Also, most states have sore-loser laws which would prevent primary candidates that lost from appearing on the GE ballot in their states.
>>70091197
Instead of crying foul, Trump needs to play ball in the delegate-wrangling game. Campaign Cruz is using the rules to get those delegates. Even if Cruz is twisting the spirit of the rules in his favor, we need to hate the game not the player.
>>70085356
If he pushes really hard in the north east and Washington state, he can get 1250. That's not even counting any extra effort in New York and California, which he could certainly do as well.
I think he shouldn't waste any time in Montana/Nebraska. He tried to swing Wisconsin and it barely did him any good. Though Ted lost his majority.
Trump should really focus on the west coast and the north east, and fuck everyone else.
Kasich dropping out would help speed things along.
Also, how well the contested convention goes, if he fails to get 1237, is actually up to Trump. While he's busy gathering delegates, he needs to grease up the establishment and make them realize that he's the one for the job. This will make them less likely to try to dick around with his delegates.
Also consider that Ted could lose some momentum if that sleaze story turns out to be true. But lets assume it wont.
tl;dr: It's going to be very hard but it's still possible. Trump really needs to get professional. No more shitposting only.
all Trump has to do is get 60 percent of the remaining votes
very easy
I was reading into the 2004 Democratic primary just to remember what happened and I think we all need to take a while just to appreciate how punchable John Kerry's face is. Jesus fucking Christ you guys just look at this motherfucker.
ayy lmao
>>70091748
Back when I was a college socialist and hating Bush was really cool and progressive, I voted for him. I still hate myself for voting for such an incompetent dirtball. At least he didn't win.
>>70091748
well, some dead gooks thought the same, big mistake
>>70085732
lol MI for trump yeah right
OH
shill detected
>>70085713
yeah ur wood dweeling votes mean shit only rednecks here will vote for trump
>>70085732
Trump is a democrat inside job. First derali any candidate that would have any chance against Shillary and even if he win, act as a fucking retard as hard as he can to avoid being electable.
If you haven't noticed this yet, you are braindead.
>>70091874
he literally looks like a french aristocratic ponce that ought to be covered in white face powder and wearing frilly waistcoats while laughing about swans
>>70091940
You smarmy fuck.
Michigan 4 life, you can stay on the other side of the lakes you cunt
>>70085356
I got him to 1201.
>90 in NY
>120 in Cali
All he needs to do then is pay off 36 unbound delegates. Not impossible
>>70092030
>Trump is a democrat inside job
why don't you take your received reddit wisdom opinions and fuck off back to wherever you came from you communist sputum
>>70085356
neither will, nobody knows you have to register 55 days prior as a republican. So they've already lost, hillary will be indicted and have to step down,
romney will run and appoint obama for UN job. Where Obama will be the head of Islam.
>>70092174
a) This knowledge comes from before leddit even existed, or you even were a sperm in your father's ball
b) Trumb always been a fucking north state "conservative" saying shit like tolerance, respect and pro choice. And suddenly when he wants publicity basically steals george bush sr. redeck propaganda? What a perfect timing.
c) Keep biting the helping hand because it' doesn't fit your masturbatory fantasies and you will be being sodomized by SJW with strapons by 2020
But i guess you all deserve it, with all that proud ignorance
>>70085356
I got him there. If he over performs in California it should be a wrap.
>>70092151
you can stay in the woods with a population of 100 pleb
>>70092167
He is also probably going to win most of new england. He would have to lose at least 5 states to start having to worry about a brokered convention and there are only 3 midwestern potentially Cruz friendly states left.
>>70092167
If he tries to bribe any of the delegates, GOP will turn it against him.
>>70092665
I don't think he'll over preform in Cali. Most people I know around here are voting for Cruz.
Trump is going to sweep 6/6 in April, after that, he's locked in.
Cruztards sounding like Bernbots now. "If the guy with the most delegates doesn't have 1237, then it goes to El Rato."
2nd place doesn't turn into first. Delusional cucks.
>>70093030
Predictit is always dead on with their odds.
6/6 fellas.
Ride is over. Unfortunately this specific election is too important to tear the house down running 3rd party. With the seats up for appointment whoever is president this round will effectively decide the direction our country goes for the next few decades. We cannot divide ourselves this election or America may never recover
>>70093072
Then it must mean that Trump will not make it to the 1237.
>>70093054
delusional cuck is believing meme magic is real and that a fucking outsider that doesn't want to share the spoils of war is gonna get anywhere near a republican nomination
>>70085356
>538
>>>/trash/
>>70093919
>those headlines
>>70094183
Well what do you expect with a last name like
>silverman
>>70093431
The Nate Silver "expert poll" on the delegates is bullshit if you don't read how they came up with the estimate. They assigned probabilistic numbers of delegates, even with winner take all states. Why they didn't factor that he would take all the delegates in states where YOU FUCKING TAKE ALL THE DELEGATES is a real mystery, since it can't possibly happen any other way. Once you add those delegates back in, and throw in EVEN A HANDFUL from other winner take all states where Trump's leading, you easily get over the number for the nom (with many to spare if they're winner take all).
He has 3 more states that can put him over. Anyone telling you otherwise is shoveling pure misinformation at you, or is too stupid to understand how the delegates will be awarded.
This is all Trump needs. He can get way over the number needed.
>>70094299
> Jew
>>70085981
>CRUZ WOULD FINALLY MANAGE TO BEAT TRUMP IN THE PLACES WHERE HE COULDN'T BEFORE, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYONE GOT FIRED UP AND SUDDENLY WANTED TO SUPPORT CRUZ ONCE TRUMP WAS DENIED TO GOP NOMINATION
This makes perfect sense!
