Political expert Larry Sabato, who successfully predicted the outcome of the 2008 and 2012 election, released his projection for the 2016 election. Things are not looking good for Trump.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
>>69751004
'08 and '12 were obvious.
I successfully predicted those too and I know jack shit.
'16 is very different.
Still early. Republican are talking convention and may out right deny Trump and Sanders is not dead yet
>>69751157
The polls showed that the 2012 election could have swung either way, but it ended up being a landslide win for Obama.
Democrats tend to perform better than what the polls shows in general elections.
>>69751004
I think their will be a blue spot in Nebraska, since they can split their electoral votes
>>69751004
Trump has a strong chance of swinging florida/nv/nh. And if he's endorsed by someone good from Ohio he has a chance.
>>69751004
>thinking the rust belt will go blue
>thinking florida will go blue
>>69751004
I know he's not an expert because he's made the prediction to early. In the actual election, the campaigns will adjust as private actors will begin to mobilize for or against. A month into the general election, and it'll be possible to determine the victor.
That being said, it's Clinton's to lose.
>>69751004
Why is New Hampshire the only semi-conservative state in the northeast?
>New England
>Safe D
Not this year bub
>>69751580
Trump has all the evidence he needs to expose clinton, and with the email thing, he has great ground against her. He's fucked her, he's been in her vagina, shes taking his money, Trump could seriously have a chance because of this great addition.
That being said, OH and Flor need to go fucking red.
>>69751004
>VA
>NC
>FL
>Leans D
epic meme
nogs are going back to not voting
>>69751004
>>69751639
Don't know actually. Why the fuck is Maine blue when there aren't even city's just forest people like Montana? Really strange honestly.
>>69751004
>successfully predicted the outcome of the 2008 and 2012 election
Oh wow, I did that too and so did anyone else with a functioning brain.
>>69751639
GIVE ME LIBERTY OR GIVE ME DEATH
>>69751004
Assuming each election a coin flip, .50 x .50 = .25
1 in 4 chance means he's clearly an authority.
>ohio
>florida
>virginia
>north carolina
>nevada
>iowa
>blue
the democrats have imported enough beans/ shitskins, and encouraged the niggers to breed like rats to boost their voters.
democrats are literally importing and breeding voters LOL
i just hope enough of us red pilled mexican-americans can keep Texas red
you gringos better not go soft on us
>>69751639
they have "live free or die" on their license plates
>>69751693
VA is probably going blue because of the north.
That, and our governor who has decent approval ratings is a Cliton protege.
NC ought to go red, though.
>>69751657
If trump can win the 30% of the pop that's Republican up there, great.
Could he win the rest?
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says
This professor predicted that Trump would win using a statistical model that's only been wrong once in 104 years. The election that was wrong was the 1960 election which was completely rigged.
Checkmate. OP is a faggot.
polls don't take into account new voters
please stop shitposting
>>69751915
>VA is probably going blue because of the north
fuck no, VA is going red, even with the shitty NOVA kids
the black vote was a HUGE factor in 08 and 12
>>69751004
>Arizona red
>Georgia red
>Utah red
Please. Trump is going to get BTFO. He'll be lucky if the Dems don't get over 400 EVs.
>>69751881
Texas is going to be red for at least another couple of decades. It'll take a lot more spics before it gets to swing state status. That's why we need to build the wall.
>>69751732
Maine is full of welfare queens and they really don't want to vote away the dole.
>>69751281
Correction: It was a Romney landslide
>>69751004
Trump won't even be the nominee. It's Cruz v Clinton.
>>69751957
>If the nominee is not Trump, the model predicts that there is still a 61 percent overall chance that a Republican will win the White House, The Statesman reports.
pure delusion
There's some county in Indiana (forgot the name) that's been right every election since the 1860s, and they've been voting Trump.
>>69752069
deport the illegal ones already
i'll fight to the death to stay here but if you want to round up the ones that don't have a right to be here hurry the fuck up
>>69752184
Illegals can't vote here. We actually have voter ID laws. But still spics tend to be dem for some dumb reason even though it is Texas's conservative government has allowed our economy to be so strong.
>>69752050
Utah will be red, albeit by far less votes
>>69752176
pls be real
>>69752047
Don't blacks love Hillary though? Why wouldn't they turnout again? We're also importing tons of liberal white people yearly.
>>69752149
All that says is that there is a 6 out of 10 chance that there will be a republican in the white house. That's only a little over half a chance so it really isn't claiming much.
Plus Trump will be the nominee.
>>69751639
trying to be based like vermont used to be
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9W2PRetka0
>>69751004
>yfw, regardless who wins, the Republicans lose.
>>69752303
it's because of the whole muh minority rights
if there ever is a race war i'll be one of the first ones killed because i'll be shooting at both sides
>>69752149
>how do 8 year cycles work
It is more likely for a Republican to be president even if the party goes full retard and denies Trump the nomination.
>>69751639
because City niggers constantly vote in libcucks down here in MA
seriously fuck liberals
>start war because of taxes and guns
>now have awful taxes and nogunz
thanks liberals
>>69752356
It is: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95617378
It was actually since 1888 though, not the 1860s.
>>69751004
>successfully predicted two elections
>political expert
wew lad
Reminder that you, yes, you, live in a country with the right to bear arms and you can change the election and the course of history permanently. All you need is a lack of fear.
>>69752523
Actually looking over exit polls for our last governor election, it's not so bad. Spic men are roughly 50-50 republican vs democrat here. That's a better margin than I thought; I was thinking it was more like 60-40.
>>69751281
>polls
wew, he believes the #1 propaganda tool
go and look at the actual results and methodology of these polls
half of them are samples of 100 people from a list of people they've picked themselves
>>69751004
Remember this guy from 2012 when he started saying Romney would loose he suddenly stopped appearing on Fox news lol. That's why they looked absolutely crazy during the last month of the campaign. I'm looking out to see what the same talking heads like Dick Morris say this time.
>>69751915
We voted Repub for 8 straight elections. Obama won twice because of high black turnout. While blacks do love Clinton, the turnout wouldn't be even close to what Obama got. I still think Cruz or Kasich would have an easier time winning it though. Trump could make Jim Webb his running mate and seal it that way. Obama won less in 2012 than he did in 08 with lower black turnout. Black turnout will be even less than 2012 this year.
>>69752364
first black president has infinitely more initiating power to people who don't usually vote
I think we're going to see a repeat of 2000. Factoring in cucks turning out for Shillary.
>>69751275
Sanders beats Trump by a wider margin than hillary
>>69753165
how is anyone this delusional?
>>69753165
Damnit I want PA to be red for once in my lifetime. So sad.
>>69753177
That's why you know these polls are useless. It's mainly just likeability. Sanders proposes tax increases that most people would never ever vote for.
>>69753165
This is a pretty good map. NH and Nevada are pushing it though.
>>69752853
yea man we have hardcore conservative views
shit my grandma always told me about how all hate crimes in mexico would be against gays kek
just remember if they speak English first they're most likely on your side, there's a reason my family fled mexico why would i want to turn this great country into it
>>69753219
(You)
>>69751004
>ITT: /pol/ claims to be smarter than political professionals
>>69753340
I bet this
>Political expert Larry Sabato
doesn't know about the Jews
>Florida
>blue
>>69753340
>political professionals
>Falling for ad verecundiam
>Falling for propoganda
Wew
>>69752364
Hillary will have poor turnout as it is simply because 1) she's a democrat and 2) everyone expects her to win.
>>69751004
If it were Bernie vs. Trump it may be a close match, but Hilary vs. Trump? Trump would win. I don't know any loyal Hilary followers, and those that are only vote for because she's a woman. That will be her biggest selling point, along with trying to smear Trump.
Does anyone think the polls are lying, because the media and establishment doesn't like Trump. The polls have Kasich beating hillary by 10 points nationwide, but have Trump losing by 9. Who would vote for Kasich outside Ohio and PA? It just seems a little strange.
>>69753853
>implying you can win a presidency in the general election while promising to raise taxes on literally everyone
It would be a glorious landslide for Trump if Bernie somehow got the nomination.
>>69753419
>>69753529
>neckbeards claim to be more """""""knowledgeable""""""" than people who studied politics before you were born
>cherry picks polls and surveys that favor trump
>disregards and shits on the vast majority of polls that shows trump losing and blames it on Jews
I'm tired of /pol/ honestly
>>69753314
I really wouldn't be surprised at all if NH went red if Hillary is the nominee. Bernie had the massive support and Hillary isn't going to capture anywhere near 100% of it in the general.
>>69753314
Trump got almost 3x more votes in the NV caucus than Sanders and Clinton combined while competing with 4 other people. The republican caucus saw 76k voters, compared to 15k dems. Trump is also not favored in caucuses.
NH and FL are similar.
Anyone predicting Trump will lose these 3 states is possibly brain damaged.
>>69753974
Those polls are literally just favourability; it doesn't mean anything right now. A bunch of people go "oh I don't like Clinton" and pick the other guy. That being said, I don't think Clinton would be a hard opponent to beat.
>>69753974
They said that last time with Obama vs Romney and Barack did better than the polls predicted.
>>69751157
/thread
we have more republicans in the primaries than democrats, it's obvious what people will be voting for.
>>69754007
Feel free to leave at any time.
>>69751004
>projection
>not libtard hopes and dreams
lol
>>69753340
There are no political professionals anymore. That's why we are in this shitshow in the first place. And if we did have political professionals, I'm pretty sure the establishment could've offered something better than this current crop of candidates. At least the Koch brothers had the decency to pull Walker when the writing was on the wall. The rest of the candidates were quite literally trampled by pic related.
But seriously. This is still Clinton's to lose. There are many hard things in life, and harder still is running as Republican for the White House.
>>69754052
I think he will win Florida. NH and Nevada are tossups. Shillary might get allot of beaners registered before the election. NH has allot of white guilty liberals.
>>69754007
Polls don't mean shit at this point. Everyone will expect Trump to get shit on when Clinton and Trump debate. Then Clinton will get decimated.
Look at statistical models that predict elections. Again will repost:
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says
It's unlikely for Democrats to be nominated after an 8 year cycle. Look at the republican turnout. Look at the Democrats and independents moving over to vote for Trump.
Dems already have a hige head start. It would be hard for Trump to win these states
>Virginia (Northern Virginia Liberals)
>NH (leans Dem)
>Nevada (more hispanics)
>Iowa (pretty much Minnesota now)
>Ohio (leans Dem)
>Colorado (Cali,Oregon,Washington transplants)
>
>>69754113
I cant
>>69754266
>>69754367
>disregards and shits on the vast majority of polls that shows trump losing
>>69751004
Don't see NC being Hillary leaning desu
>>69754607
Ohio usually goes whatever the rest of the country is feeling
>>69752050
Yes, Arizona red, Georgia red, Utah red. Shoo shoo leafshill, you're too high for political analysis
>>69754612
How much do they pay you?
>>69754612
The polls went down. Why can't they go up?
Statistical models speak louder than polls because they are based on previous elections and the factors that influenced those outcomes.
>>69754770
>gets btfo and resorts to memes
/pol/ is too predicatble and boring honestly
>>69754612
Polls are essential, but we are measuring a contest that has yet to even begin. Again, let's wait until the month that the election starts. Even then, this guy Norpoth says polls are only relevant in September, and I am compelled to agree based on his superior knowledge.
I have no dog in this fight, again, I'm just more disappointed in our parties if nothing else.
>>69754724
I think Trump will definitely outperform current estimates in the general, but primary turn-out for NC, VA, and OH makes me kind of nervous.
That said, if primary turnout was everything then Trump would take IL and that's not going to happen.
>>69753249
Get rid of filthydelphia and maybe you will.
>>69751542
impressive knowledge of Murica, Nigel.
>>69755046
kek
>>69755046
He's right, Florida is definitely going red and Trump has the ability to flip at least a couple of rustbelt states with his blue-collar appeal and economic nationalism.
Hillary is also a very brittle candidate. Look how Trump made squishy centrists like Jeb and Rubio fold like wet paper bags. Shillary may be a witch, but she's never really had to work for any office she's ever "won"
>>69754881
And the vast majority of statistical models show trump losing anon.
>>69754929
Too many people hate on trump. He doesn't have the minority and women vote. He can't win honestly.
>>69751877
Don't all voters breed?
Didn't many voters come from other countries and naturalize as citizens?
I think you're missing the point...
>>69755272
>the vast majority of statistical models show trump losing
[citation needed]
>>69751004
Hey look! A GOPe cuckservative is spreading anti-Trump propaganda! That's so rare we'd better document it.
>>69754929
the poll you have pictured is from 2014, not 2012
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/27/cnn-poll-romney-tops-obama-but-loses-to-clinton/
>>69752861
Did you even read that anon's post? He literally said that polls are inaccurate.
>>69751004
ohio will not vote dem, kek
>>69755272
The minority vote is sort of irrelevant because its concentrated in the West through a growing Latino and Asian population. Most women right now hate Donald Trump, but most women by nature are open-minded (for better or worse.)
There are things about Donald, though, that make his candidacy 'evolved' over the Republicans. The Republicans communicate with archaic and obsolete terminology, but have also failed to learn how to craft narrative. Trump however is an actual 'politician' that our system can't produce anymore. There his communications are adapted to America far better than we may believe it to be, and he can change his rhetorical policies as a politician should be able to do. Plus. he is operating with some highly advanced political communications theories which give him an incalcuable advantage.
I'm going to now have to say Trump is the likely next president, because the Primary Model makes total fucking sense with advanced theories. There's no point trying to outplay a guy whose been right so many times,
I understand things from a words perspective, but his math speaks to my words.
>>69755678
Thanks for pointing that out. Hope springs eternal I guess.
>>69755245
I know he's right. I stated that in my previous post.
If Trump doesn't get a serious tutor and take his advice, I don't he has a chance. He's rough around the edges, says some dumb shit that is hard for people to justify and is used to being told yes. He needs some hard truths dropped on him in the coming months, and he would be wise to take some good council.
I think the guy would be a decent president, and I really want to vote him as a political moderate, but he needs some work to be appealing in the general election.
Anyone have hope for this?
>>69752106
kek
>>69756348
Trump is going to chill in the general election but still talk tough. He knows what he's doing.
>>69751004
>Florida
>EVER going blue over trump
nice 1
>>69756439
he's giving clinton soundbites which will be played on an endless amount of commercials between now and November (punishment for abortion, geneva conventions etc.). He's sacrificing way too much in the general election for what might be a negligable gain (if any at all) in the primaries. I honestly don't think he knows what he's doing, unless he's purposely trying to sabotage his campaign
>>69755892
Cruz vs Trump is extremely interesting to watch, because it's like a World War 2 Mustang trying to shoot down a German Jet fighter. The Mustang is a brilliant plane with a skilled pilot, but the German Jet Fighter has access to technologies that make it no contest. The only chance the Mustang has is to win by other means besides direct contest (for instance, shooting the German Jet fighter when it's on ground.)
Nobody listens to me IRL, but I could explain what is going on when Trump does his communications versus what Cruz does, and the difference is remarkable. Cruz tried to be an outsider, but Trump is like a hyper-outsider.
>>69751004
Good
>>69756610
Soundbites are funny thing. People don't know when they count and when they don't. That's the challenge with them.
>>69756610
The abortion thing was a mistake, but Trump has been battling soundbites all primary long. Besides, soundbites lose their potency as time goes on.
>>69754104
>>69757252
I would need more data besides just 6 points.And then the other factor of the model would begin to play. IDK. I'm reluctant to take on people who are both smart, experienced. and successful.
After running the numbers extensively there is only one winner guys, just accept it
https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/
>mfw there are actually a bunch of alt-right dorks on here who think Trump will win
Feels good being a Leftist on /pol/.
Screen cap this post. HRC is 45.
>>69754052
A lot more people turn out for the general election than for the primaries, dumbass. Here's what NH polls look like:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html
>>69758252
Holy shit this is fun, just won as Trump/Christie 306-232
>>69751004
America will be ruled by democrats for the next 50 years. Just the way it is.
I can't see any of those blue states ever going red. Many of the the currently red states will soon flip blue in 10-15 years...texas and louisiana first
>>69759385
Primaries are seeing a 50% turn out on the republican side, which is consistent with the general in both 2000/04
Turnout in 08/12 was up to a bit over 60%, but controversial elections always see a higher turnout than less important ones and Obama had over 100m phone calls made in his name, had the benefit of white guilt/virtue signalling, had the entire media on his side except Fox, wasn't vetted, was a fantastic campaigner/orator (if nothing else) and was the first to utilize the internet.
Obama still barely won the popular vote in either election despite that high turnout favors democrats and Hillary does not have any of those advantages. Her base is the Baby Boomers, which grow fewer in number every day and have a decent chance of swinging to Trump.
>>69758252
>Texas
>blue
Pic has never been more related.
>>69762180
Texas has been moving for decades towards being blue. Add the fact that the evangelicals down there hate Trump and you might very well see the state go to Hillary in November.
>>69751004
hi im from the future - merry christmas and happy new year 2017
>>69762180
IF Trump really, really fucked up, it would be possible. But he'd have to fuck up really tremendously bad.
>>69762425
1/10 bait
Any state with a spic infestation will vote TRUMP in large numbers.
>>69762557
i like those odds
>>69762345
Uh-huh. Heard the same thing when Wendy David was running for governor. The evangelicals will reluctantly vote for Trump because they see him as a better alternative to Hillary. Plus, gun culture in Texas will ensure that the state goes red. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.
>>69762450
The only way he's losing Texas is if he starts supporting gun control, which isn't likely.
>implying Shillary won't be rotting in prison on election day
>>69762874
The only Republican, so far, that wins the election, according to current polls, is Kasich. That's factoring Sanders in too.
>>69756610
People don't care about policy in this election, they want someone that will fuck with the establishment. It's why Sanders is still lingering despite dem delegates scrambling for Clinton as they've been told to, and it explains the entirety of Trump's success so far, even including the abortion "misstep" the desperate MSM is trying to spin as a huge issue.
>>69751542
>trump supporters hinging their whole electoral victory plan on the rust belt.
