What went wrong?
>>69658010
Ryan accepting the nomination is career suicide for him. He is Speaker of the House, so he's already at a strong point in the party, and he's young. If he takes the nomination and Trump runs third party, he's guaranteed to lose and be branded as such. Meanwhile, if Hillary wins, he gets to lead the resistance in the House and become an extremely attractive candidate for 2020.
Despite Walker's statement, I think it's much more likely to be Cruz or Kasich at a contested convention.
Trump has been self-stumping every time he opens his mouth in recent days. He's lost his magic touch, and has been exposed as way out of his intellectual depth.
>>69658466
This. I cant watch its pissing me off. He had this all in the bag before all this wife bullshit.
He cant stop putting his dayum foot in his mouth
all his supporters are defending their space or evacing assets instead of getting getting Trump elected to make sure the woman who forgot to ping for a fleet and got a diplo killed doesn't become allied commander
>>69658873
Everyone things a brokered convention would be the ultimate clusterfuck, when the ACTUAL ultimate clusterfuck - and the one we're likely to see - is Trump securing a majority to clinch the nomination, but massive buyers remorse setting in along Republicans in the meantime, such that Trump has well below 50% actual present popular support with Republicans at a convention that's legally bound to nominate him.
>>69658466
What did he say wrong? Has he said anything worse than usual?
>>69658010
The reason the likelihood is going down really doesn't have anything to do with a change in Trump, it's that the closer we get to the end of the primaries, the more it looks like Trump won't get to 1237, or even enough to clinch with some of the unbound delegates. If the first vote at the convention doesn't go Trump's way, most of the delegates unbind, and then they can vote however THEY want. It's pretty unlikely that Trump wins a contested convention, and the increasing likelihood of that being the case makes his chances go down. Trump's support hasn't actually changed.
>>69659375
He was given a bullshit question on abortion and said Women who do illegal abortions should be punished, likely in an attempt to appeal to cruz voters.
When this outraged women he flip-flopped and changed his stance on abortion, making it apparent that he truly doesn't give a shit about it.
While most trump supporters are aware abortion issues are distraction politics this still booty blasted female supporters which has damaged his inertia a bit.
>>69658010
>What went wrong?
Trump kept talking when he should of shut up/switched topics
>increasinglynervousman.jpg
>>69660383
This certainly didn't help him, but I still don't see much evidence that it's hurt him much. He had already fallen behind Cruz in Wisconsin before that happened, and his national numbers haven't moved basically at all as far as I've seen.
The republicans went nuclear and confirmed that if Trump doesn't win 50% or more of delegates he's toast and will be thrown in the dumpster. Republicans are pushing for a Cruz/Kasich ticket right now and they're going to get it.
the verizon records will have him back over 70% by the end of the week
>>69658466
What are you talking about? He's doing great- he's crushing it in New York and pretty much has the entire Eastern seaboard locked up. His new radio ad in Wisconsin actually sound pretty awesome. He sounds more passionate.
>Australian odds on US presidential election
As long as this goes according to plan we have nothing to worry about.
>>69658010
Republicans would rather have a Clinton presidency than Trump.
Anyone but Trump and his people. Lunatic wants South Korea, Japan, and Europe to defend themselves - know how much money is being made in those rackets? He suggested cuts to NATO which means he doesn't even think we need even more weapons against an aggressive, resurgent Russia! Not only that, he wants to kill the TPP and build a wall cutting off our supply of delicious cheap brown labor from down south. Trump is anti-business, anti-military, and generally just a Very Bad Dude who will Fuck Our Shit Up.
Trump cannot be allowed to win; he's un-American and a racist basically
>>69661684
candians are always wrong. Trump doesn't want them to 'defend themselves' like we are just going to throw them to the wolves, he just wants a little financial consideration for our efforts considering how their economies are fucking ours up so badly.
>>69661684
>republicans would rather have the one person they hate more than obama
love this meme
>>69658010
hype is dieing down meme juice is almost out
>>69661684
>TPP a good thing
Stay cucked
>>69662098
There's real evidence that it's the case though. We're not talking about rank-and-file voters, but if you're a high-ranking official or a rich donor, Trump represents something bigger than Hillary. If Hillary wins, you recoup and wait 4 years. If Trump wins, your version of Republicanism is dead and buried. A Hillary win forces them to bide their time, but a Trump win wipes out their entire control scheme.
>>69658010
Wrong?
Your own data shows he's "down" to a landslide.
>>69660595
Yeah, basically
>Trump is Stumped because Shillary beats in national polls!
Utterly irrelevant, these are always wildly inaccurate this far from the election, and these are the same people who said his polls proved he would never win the nomination.
>Trump Stumped because 50% of Republicans don't want him!
Also bullshit, polling of second choices shows that over half of Rato supporters and over half of Kucksich supporters back Trump as a second pick, while only about a third of Kucksich's would back Rato as a second pick, and vice-versa.
>Trump Stumped because he's going to lose Wisconsin in a landslide!
Actually, Trump was never expected to do well in Cheeseland, a Trump sweep in Wisconsin would've been the final nail in the coffin for Rato and Johnny Kuck, but a loss here doesn't mean much. It's proportional, so he will maintain his lead over the other two, and Trump will sweep the North East at the end of the month.
>Trump is Stumped because muh scandal and muh gaffes
By the 19th (New York) Trump will have been "stumped" 37 more times and nobody will remember any of this. He will win New York with a stronger lead than he won Florida, and take all the delegates there (Rato doesn't stand a chance after "New York Values", and literally nobody cares about Kucksich). If this win is big enough, it will likely propel Trump into a sweep the following Super Tuesday 3. If Trump sweeps the North East and wins California, it's over for Rato even if Lyin' Ted wins every single cowboy state.
>Trump will be Stumped by brokered convention!
Every big win causes more big GOP names to edge closer to his camp. He will almost certainly pick up Giuliani before New York. He just recently got Rand's promise to back him if he wins. Most GOPe types (outside the fanatical Neo-Con/Romneyist camp) are making noises to the effect that they will close ranks behind Trump if they have no other choice.
Absolutely nobody wants Shillary except true RINOs
TRUMP 2016
>>69658010
There is no way in hell any of them other than Trump get the nomination.
>>69660383
>Women who do illegal abortions should be punished
people who break the law should be punished?
what's the problem?
>>69661684
you realize that you are still a subject under the british monarchy, right?
>>69663330
That's MEEEEAAAANNNN :c
>>69662844
Good post
>>69660342
The way things are going, I think it's a real possibility that Trump will be the only one who can even win a contested convention. You need to win 8, 50+1% in primaries in order to be on the ballot, and Trump is the only one who's done that. Cruz has like 4 so far I think, someone correct me if I'm wrong. With all the caucus states and his home state done voting, where can he reasonably expect to get 4 more 50+1% wins? Cruz usually just barely eeks out victories (except in Utah, fucking Mormon cultists) and Kasich is basically there to just deny Trump more votes. But I think it will have a worse effect on Cruz by stopping him from getting the super-majority of any remaining state, or even worse, Kasich takes one more super-majority (somehow) and Cruz has just that much less to work with to even make it to the contested convention.
I don't see any victory except a Trump victory at this point unless the RNC just hand waves away that requirement.
>>69664384
It really comes down to whether the GOPe decides to tip their hand and reveal that they are controlled opposition, or try to cope with a Trump nomination to maintain their fig-leaves and do damage-control as best they can.
Trump likes to give his negotiating opponent two options that both seem bad, and that's what he's done to the GOPe and, by extension, whomever pulls their strings. They now have to decide whether or not accepting his candidacy is the lesser of two evils.
>>69664384
That is the rule, but the rules are changed so easily by the people involved that I don't see it mattering much. Granted them changing it does make the process seem undemocratic, but that doesn't mean they won't do it.
The big thing with a contested convention that most people don't realize is that the delegates are real people who are only bound to a candidate for the first vote. Most of Trump's delegates are not actually Trump supporters, and as soon as he loses a first ballot, they're all free to turn on him. To me it seems that if Trump can't get to 1237 by then, he's probably going to get snubbed afterwards.
Wheres jeb
>>69661684
>Canadian
>>69658325
trump wouldn't even need to run third party
anyone but Trump getting the nomination guarantees republicans lose due to upset voters not voting
Cucks and their CNN henchmen
>>69665064
The rules won't change, they pretty much never change rules after the primaries have started because it will change the presidential outcome.
I'll reply to this post in a while after I do some digging and rereading of notes because I actually studied this specific topic before due to what Romney did in 2012 to hurt Ron Paul...
>>69665973
Even if they don't change the rules, who is going to punish them if they don't abide? To me the thing is that if the people in charge want to stop Trump from being the Republican nominee bad enough, they can do so and no one can really stop them UNLESS he can get to 1237. He can still run as an independent, of course, but I get a very strong feeling that the people with the say have already decided that they'd rather sink the ship than give Trump the wheel.
>>69658010
>what went wrong
>literally still 25% above all other candidates
LOL
>wah he said something that offended whores wah
Lets you know again he gives nor fucks about being politically correct and speaks his mind fuck your bullshit liberal ideas
Cruz is a master chess player. You don't even know what's coming next
>>69666478
Trump has a lot of highly paid lawyers.
>>69666548
>fuck your bullshit liberal ideas
>abortion
sweet jesus you dont actually believe this do you? you realize most abortions are minorities right
>>69666832
this
fuck cuckservatives MUH BABIES MUH JEEBUS
1 million babies are aborted yearly, 70% of which are to mothers in absolute poverty
who the fuck is going to pay for these children?
If we outlaw abortion then we better start taxing the fuck out of the churches
reminder that cuckservatives only care about babies before they're born then they don't give two fucks if the baby starves to death a week later
Post yfw people finally realized that Trump is a deranged billionaire and literally the best thing to ever happen to the Democratic party. I really hope he gets the nom because we'll take every fucking thing from you.
>>69667821
>has the lowest unfavorable rating of any GOP candidate
>h-h-he's the worst!
rato pls go
>>69658010
It's just a rough patch, he'll get through it. Also, he may need to prevent any further gaffes by toning down maybe a little to be presidential, accepting a teleprompter and researching the issues in a little more depth.
>>69658010
The Jews
The lack of faith in the wall and meme magic in this thread disturbs me
>>69668038
>it's another one of those "the republican nomination is the only thing that matters" fags
