like a stone?
18% chance to win the presidency? WTF?
50% chance to get the nomination? I thought he is a shoe in??
>>69471000
Bet everything on kasich. Neither Cruz or trump have a chance.
Welp looks like I'm a Hillshill now. I'm always on the winning side.
>>69471000
just media polls getting increasingly nervous.
>>69471000
dont you have some Achmed cocks to suck?
It's called building up speed. He's using the downward trend to fuel his upward surge.
When Hillary gets indicted. He'll soar up to 100% guaranteed.
They're paying shills in Germany even? Wow, the establishment is nuts.
>>69473452
>implying you have top pay germans to be cucks
>>69473450
Gentlemen, this is what denial looks like.
>>69471000
Those are bettors odds you fucking dunce, god damn leftist retards and their horseshit arguments.
The establishment is doing its best to jew him and less people are betting because they think they are about to pull some bullshit and deny him the win despite the delegates.
Kill yourself you fucking white jew faggot.
>>69471000
That picture of Ted Cruz's wife. Almost everything stupid he's said could be defended somehow, but that couldn't.
And then he's stupid enough to talk about punishing women for getting abortions during an election.
He stumped himself. If only he used his fucking brain once in a while. Those town hall debates were embarrassing. He can't even answer simple questions.
Fuck him. He let us down. .
>>69473886
People tried to tell you stupid cucks that he was a Hillary plant.
The media finally breached his armour with this "War on Women" narrative. It's complete bullshit, of course, but the sheer force of the libel is overwhelming.
Ahhh this thread is so full of beautiful denial. Look at all of these beautiful posts. POLLs are shills, everything is shills, it's all a lie! Rip down anything that insults dear leader!
>>69473862
This dumb fuck thinks betting websites are going to give wonky odds and get less business. It doesn't help him that all of the websites have similar odds, some even worse for Trump.
The funny thing is if this stupid fuck was really so convinced of a Trump victory over Clinton, he should dump every fucking cent he owns into these betting websites and earn fucking thousands of dollars for doing nothing. But he won't, because he knows the odds are right.
>>69473886
Jesus christ. We really are being raided.
I don't fucking care. Nothing will stop me from voting Trump.
>>69473450
>He's using the downward trend to fuel his upward surge.
How does that make sense?
He has a less than 1 in 5 chance to win the presidency right now.
There are better odds for me fucking a 9/10 qt.3.14 girl this weekend.
>>69474450
Aussie, do your job. Bait newfags with "how can white man even compete" threads.
>>69474559
Dear Leader needs your power now more than ever! Who cares what he says or what he wants to do! He is the one true voice of justice!
It looks unlikely that he'll win the nomination without a brokered convention
and the republicans are unlikely to give him the nomination
so yeah, cruz is rising for the nomination but he won't win the presidency. better say goodbye to your guns and hello to forced equality of pay for all
>>69471000
You fool. Candidates like Trump don't win by winning.
He already won by starting a movement that will take over the GOP and create a brand new party that will BTFO both the GOP and Demoturds in the next generation.
>>69474718
Actually, every sane person should vote for Kasich, as Cruz is a disaster.
>>69473886
When he has these seeming brainfarts, I find myself wondering if he isn't perhaps just deliberately hobbling his own campaign. I can't help thinking that maybe he doesn't actually want to be president, but wants to get as close as he can so he has maximum publicity. It seems maybe too that he dislikes the Republican party and would perhaps take some pleasure in destroying the party. He's too autocratic to work within a party system and he seems to have grudges against those in the party who have insulted him and didn't provide him with support the last time he was interested in running for president. I don't think Trump actually wants to be sitting around creating education policies and health care policies, or signing massive amounts of paperwork. He's not enough of a policy wonk to enjoy all that. I suspect he'd much prefer just to be continuing as a business investor and getting himself even more rich and famous. This makes it even more hilarious that /pol/ largely supports him in his mission of self-promotion -- he wouldn't give a damn about anyone who posts here.
>>69473450
>inb4 Trump goes to jail for sponsoring pedo parties, scamming retards and working with the mob
Shillary is lucky that Trump is keeping the media away from her ass.
>>69474820
Shouldn't you be building our wall, Paco?
>>69474820
>He already won by starting a movement that will take over the GOP and create a brand new party
Didn't they try that with the tea party movement? See what happened. Nothing really.
>>69474820
Ron Paul did that, it lead to trump
>>69474820
What movement?
That's a cult, the moment Trump dies the cult dies
This election comes down to white men against everyone else. This is the last chance to save your country.
>>69473886
Honestly this, I'll still support him but he fucked up big the last 2 weeks
>>69475095
At least you won't end up like canadian "males"
His abortion gaffe basically confurms what I thought all along: He is out of touch with the anti-abortion movement because hr hasn't really changed his pro choice stance. What if abortions were limited is not even something he has thought about because as far as abortion goes Trump was always going to be a status quo president. He doesn't want to punish women for getting abortions - he doesn't even really want to restrict abortions at all. It is just a bone he threw out there to get the nomination.
I for one support Trump now more than ever since I too am pro Choice.
>>69475095
Well considering the white vote is split and the minority vote goes to Clinton, it's pretty clear to see what the outcome is.
>>69471000
Which news-sphincter was this pinched out of?
>>69471000
are you guys forgetting that hillary sold her soul to donald a long time ago? if he says "hillary drop your knees" she will do it
>>69475478
If you are a white male or gun owner and vote for Hillary you are a huge faggot
>>69471000
Kasich would be worse than Cruz. He's a warhawk trying to masquarade as a nice guy.
/pol/ misses the big picture. They can't deny the nomination to Trump without starting a civil war. He gets the nomination, the election happens regardless of all these completely minor bullshit details which are sucking the air out of the MSM are forgotten by the time the debates roll around.
>>69474801
>It looks unlikely that he'll win the nomination without a brokered convention
Why are people forcing this meme? What is your logic behind it? What possible reason do you have to claim this?
Trump is on course to win PA, CA and NY as the polls all have him dominating there. After that he literally needs 25% of the remaining delegates to pass the 1237 threshold.
Why do you keep claiming there will be a convention? Why? Why? Why?
>>69474618
You wish anon
>>69471000
>$100 mil negative ads
>24/7 negative media coverage
That's betting odds, dipshit.
Hillary vs Trump is going to be a dream for Trump, because there's no candidate dirtier than Hillary. And she's been barely attacked on perhaps 1% of it.
Just look at Libya. All people have attacked her on it was about Benghazi. Not the child soldiers, not the 100ks of people who died, not the millions of refugees displaced. And that's just one of many ways to attack.
>>69475914
>win CA
>>69476088
>You wish anon
Not really, it is more a question of time and cash.
>>69471000
Daily reminder that the United States does not really have elections. It's a show to solicit donations from the feeble minded. The outcome was pre-ordained long ago. Votes don't matter. Opinions don't matter. That is the truth.
>>69472785
>Oh jeez man
I would rather kill myself
>>69476109
Where is Romney? Where Ryan? Where Biden?
>>69476289
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
>>69471000
People have Trump fatigue. Even America can only handle so much retard for so long. the novelty of a dumbass running for president was funny for a year but its wearing off now.
"At 1.43, equivalent to a 70% chance, Clinton is trading at her shortest odds yet for the main contest. In contrast, Trump remains static at 5.30 (18%) despite seemingly getting closer to the GOP nomination."
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/clinton-v-trump-betfair-predicts-a-win-for-hillary-200316-171.html
>>69476522
this is exactly what happened to Farage btw
The election was last May and the October before UKIP fell into a slump that they never recovered from.
>>69476450
Euro bettors certainly don't know who Ryan is so Betfair took him off
>>69476270
The delusions are strong with this one.
Sanders: She's rich.
Trump: [interested] Rich?
Sanders: Rich, powerful. Listen, if you were to beat her in the general election, the reward would be...
Trump: What?
Sanders: Well, more shenanigans than you can imagine!
Trump: I don't know, I can imagine quite a bit.
>>69473450
>When Hillary gets indicted
>he thinks Hillary will get indicted
>>69476109
>if there's money involved then the polls can't be wrong
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11593973/Pensioner-who-placed-30000-bet-on-Tory-majority-is-single-biggest-election-winner.html
>>69476522
>People have Trump fatigue.
Agreed. I was told by an American girl today that if I mention Trump once more during a lunch conversation, she is going to tell her girl friends that I am gay.
Biatch.
>>69475478
>the minority vote goes to Clinton
Sure, if you subscribe to Tumblr
>>69476522
Pretty much this. I think people are tired of him, outside of maybe /pol/. He'll still win the nomination probably but his Presidential odds are looking pretty abysmal. His shtick has just gotten old.
>>69473886
I can't believe Trump still apparently runs his own twitter with no supervision. He's avoid so much shit by just having someone with a brain check everything before it went out. Ditto these off-the-cuff policy musings e.g. abortion.
>>69474907
read Politico's article on the parallels between Trump and Ross Perot.
>>69477129
>God, how I wish he wasn't his own person! Not having a puppet run is so horrible!
Corea, do you know how you sound?
>>69476932
>Sure, if you subscribe to Tumblr
No, if you subscribe to reality. What fucking drugs are you on to think that Trump has any chance of winning the minority vote?
Hillary even has Bernie "Jewish Grandpa, free things for all!" Sanders beat in the minority department. What makes you think Trump is going to do better?
>>69477311
I don't know, maybe the fucking exit polls that show him winning in every demographic.
>>69477399
Exit polls from where? Against who?
>>69476450
This whole thing doesn't make any sense. Why is Biden on there? He said with certainty he wasn't seeking nomination. Just that small error invalidates the rest of the system.
The Democrats have ten other people they would field in Hillary's place if she got disqualified somehow after receiving the nomination. Having Biden on here is just silly.
>>69471000
What do you think?
Normies are coming to their senses.
You can't get elected president with the white male vote alone. We've been through this before.
>>69471000
>polls
Okay Krautputer
>>69477309
>expecting one person to do everything himself
That Trump apparently can't organize a proper organization, and put the right people in the right rolls to keep him from making these gimmie mistakes, doesn't reflect well.
>>69474618
>He has a less than 1 in 5 chance to win the presidency right now.
you think some fake gambling website gives an accurate portrayal of the likelihood he'll be president? how fucking retarded can you be?
>>69475069
If that's the case, how come neo-nazis are still around despite Hitler dying 70+ years ago? How come so many people still believe Hitler was right in what he did? Trump's been in the news everyday for the last several months. Him dying wouldn't change the movement that's starting.
>>69477309
Seriously. I love his tweets. His political incorrectness is the only reason to root for him.
>>69477475
The primaries, dickhead. Let me guess, you still think there are more Democrat than Republicans, no minorities are Republican, and that there are going it be zero crossover voters, right?
>>69471000
This is all according to plan. Roger Stone predicted that the media and polls would come out saying Trump is losing support.
it's not true.
>>69477478
>This whole thing doesn't make any sense. Why is Biden on there?
You are stupid.
Seeing this made me lose hope so I'm a #CruzMissile now
>>69477478
>This whole thing doesn't make any sense. Why is Biden on there? He said with certainty he wasn't seeking nomination. Just that small error invalidates the rest of the system
Biden is on there in case Clinton is indicted and Sanders dies of a heart attack.
Ryan and Romney are on there in case the delegates in a contested convention cannot agree on one of the 3 remaining candidates and need an alternative solution.
>>69477518
>What do you think?
I think Trump has lost the female vote completely and the GOP knows it and everyone sort of knows it.
>>69477518
>You can't get elected president with the white male vote alone. We've been through this before.
Exactly.
>>69477542
>>polls
>Okay Krautputer
This is a prediction market where you trade "Yes" and "nos" with money, hence people factor in all kinds of information. Much more precise than polls.
>>69477578
Or he'd rather be his own person
PredictIt is full of retards. Not the best site for real odds. One comment with a fake poll can shift the market on that site.
>>69477578
Wouldn't you be more worried about a leader who can't even run their own phone?
Trump obviously has great delegation skills. Look at any of his businesses. But having someone else handle your twitter is just the height of laziness and guile.
>>69471000
Yeah and these same betting markets had Rubio as the top choice to win the Republican nomination and a good shot at actually winning the White House.
If this election cycle like any other has shown us before, it's that these people running betting markets and polls are a bunch of liars and cheats that think they can manipulate the market and whatever they say is so.
I will not believe a single god damn thing until the most accurate poll is conducted, election day. I mean for fuck's sake, this has happened so many times in history. Anyone wanna talk about Truman vs Dewey and how based on national polling and all these "experts" predicting everything "so accurately and scientifically" that Truman was going to lose in a massive landslide, but then Dewey lost? This shit has been going on for centuries
>>69477658
Provide a link, you dumb fuck. Second, if you're talking primaries against OTHER CONSERVATIVES, of course he stands a better chance coming out ahead against them. I'm talking about minority voters against a fucking democrat. Totally different ballgame.
I don't think "no minorities are Republican", but you're fucking delusional if you think Trump is going to carry a MAJORITY of minority voters in a general election against Clinton.
>>69476811
bro where are u even. lol go away
>>69477618
>you think some fake gambling website gives an accurate portrayal of the likelihood he'll be president? how fucking retarded can you be?
I believe that 2 dozen prediction markets and gambling sites in several different countries all over the globe which all pretty much say the same thing, end up being correct.
How fucking retarded are you that the whole world betting money is wrong, but you are right?
>>69473511
kek
>>69474401
THIS dumbass is illiterate
He completely ignored the points presented by the person he responded to.
He might in fact be a shillbot.
Ever since captcha could be solved by robots, you never know
That same betting market gave Rubio an 80% chance of winning after the Iowa caucus. Gambling sites have been notoriously unstable this election cycle because of how fucking crazy everything is. Literally every report of a Trump decline since last June has been false, so i'm going to follow past trends and say he's likely doing just fine.
>>69477886
>Yeah and these same betting markets had Rubio as the top choice to win the Republican nomination and a good shot at actually winning the White House.
When?
Pic related is the Rubio prediction market odds for the last 3 months.
>>69477686
Oh cool, so I guess Donald Trump can literally never lose support because some guy predicted it. Nice.
You guys are so fucking dumb. Jesus christ.
The media skills Trump used to gain attention for himself are now working to his disadvantage. His brash unPC nature enabled him to rise to the top of the pack, but now he's there he needs to let the media purr, but they refuse to go along.
>>69478044
>That same betting market gave Rubio an 80% chance of winning after the Iowa caucus.
Absolute BULL.
Look here >>69478139, Rubio spiked very briefly to 25% odds to win the nomination in February, both very briefly after Cruz did really badly.
I honestly hope that Trump pivots and becomes liberal as shit in the next few months. I hope he keeps pounding the Wall and the Military thing in order to keep the republican base on his side, calculating that those are really the only issues conservative voters care about, so he can use the rest of his wiggle room to blow kisses to liberals as hard as he can.
>>69474618
Hell, why even have elections at all? We should just let oddsmakers and the early polls during the primaries decide.
>>69474618
>He has a 1 in 5 chance
>Trump, Bernie, Hillary, Cruz, Kasich
You could say they all have a 1 in 5 chance of winning right now, since there are 5 candidates and only one can win.
>>69471000
Sounds like rigged to me...
Trump better win. They're trying to screwhim out of whats his. Is Vince McMahon behind this?
>>69478410
>Hell, why even have elections at all? We should just let oddsmakers and the early polls during the primaries decide.
We need to keep the appearance, don't ya think?
>>69478417
>You could say they all have a 1 in 5 chance of winning right now, since there are 5 candidates and only one can win.
Wrong,
Clinton has a 3 in 5 chance to win the presidency
Trump a 1 in 5 chance
Ted Cruz a 1 in 8 chance
Sanders a 1 in 10 chance
Kasich a 1 in 17 chance
>>69471000
I still believe it is all part of his plan somehow.
He is doing this on purpose, right?
>>69478208
>The media skills Trump used to gain attention for himself are now working to his disadvantage.
Pretty much. It's fairly hard to recover from something like "Women who want abortions should be punished." We like to go on about Trump's invincibility here in the media, that he could shoot someone in the street yada yada...but the reality is that that bombastic media approach does have a limit, and he's quite clearly hit it. He's going to have to be extra careful from now on because I don't think these kinds of aggressive statements will work out in his favor anymore.
>>69478269
>BULL
Yup, you're full of bull. Notice I said AFTER THE IOWA CAUCUS. I shouldn't have to research this shit for you, but here it is.
>>69478455
Yeah, because the media will scream it until the general.
No matter if Hillary is totally supportive of late-term abortions and funding abortions with tax dollars, Trump's the villain because he said that hypothetically, women should be punished for an illegal act. If anything, it just shows that he's not really a pro-lifer and he's just pandering to Republicans... he did fuck up, though, I'll admit that.
Those gambling sites had Rubio at a high % times before, it's a lot of idiots who don't know shit with some people mixed in who want to make some money off of the idiots.
>>69478689
Pretty sure that number says 60% and not 80%. And they quite literally had him back down to 20% in the span of like 1-2 days.
>>69478649
Too bad the media won't ask Hillary gotcha questions like they do with Republicans. For instance, I'd like to see her answer:
>"Do you believe a woman should be able to have an abortion at 8th months?"
>"At which stage of pregnancy do you believe an unborn child begins to feel pain?"
>"Is it okay to dismember an unborn child before it is dead?"
Can you guess how she'd answer these?
>>69478689
WTF? The odds on the sight for the Euro 2016 are all wrong. This cannot be true. how can the frog eaters have higher chances than based Kraut eaters?
>>69474996
The tea party did not have the people behind it
>>69478967
60% is still a crushing lead. And Trump was only at 20%.
>And they quite literally had him back down to 20% in the span of like 1-2 days.
That was right after he imploded in the debates and became Marco Ruboto. Again, this proves the frequent instability of prediction markets this year.
>>69471000
>predictions
>>69475095
This.
If this country fallz fully into the hands of minorities, we are beyond fucked. Trust me, I'm black. I'm voting Trump so the country doesn't become the United States of Atlanta.
>>69477248
Thanks, anon.
>>69479178
>Again, this proves the frequent instability of prediction markets this year.
They're always somewhat unstable because things happen and things change the odds. This doesn't mean that right now, Trump doesn't have terrible odds. Because he does. That's how a betting market works.
Just because Tyson had insane odds against Buster Douglas doesn't mean that Douglas couldn't win or that Douglas was in reality a favorite to win the fight. The market is not a guarantee, it is a reflection of current trends, moods, and data.
You're trying to say that since a market isn't static and it changes over time, it means nothing. I assure you, this isn't true. While ultimately only the final result matters, these markets are far more accurate at picking the winner more often than they get it wrong, which means that their analysis is statistically significant and relevant.
>>69479468
>They're always somewhat unstable because things happen and things change the odds. This doesn't mean that right now, Trump doesn't have terrible odds. Because he does. That's how a betting market works.
You've managed to say a whole lot without actually disagreeing with me on anything. We agree that betting markets are unstable, and we agree that -betting markets- show Trump with less-than-stellar odds. These are both just facts.
>You're trying to say that since a market isn't static and it changes over time, it means nothing.
Yup.
>I assure you, this isn't true.
Nope.
>While ultimately only the final result matters, these markets are far more accurate at picking the winner more often than they get it wrong, which means that their analysis is statistically significant and relevant.
That's simply false. I'm speaking purely in terms of the 2016 presidential election, of which betting markets have been worth about as much as the opinions of a drunken homeless man. Aside from stating the obvious (Cruz will win his home state Texas, etc.) they have been consistently wrong about a good chunk of everything. Just off the top of my head, they've been wrong about the results of Arkansas, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Iowa, Hawaii, Alaska, Missouri and Maine, and their nomination predictions have fluctuated wildly from Jeb as the obvious nominee, to Fiorina and Carson standing a chance, to solidly Trump, to Rubio, and now back to Trump. It just isn't accurate by any sense of the word, and current betting odds will certainly change in the near future. I see no reason to give them any credence.
They tried this fake low poll shit after Iowa too.
>>69471000
Trump is intentionally suppressing his price, all the while accumulating Trump shares so he can corner the market. Then when his price inevitably explodes he will make yet another fortune.
>>69471000
Makes no sense how Trump can be winning primaries and doing so bad in the general election polls. Who controls the polls?
