Here is Nate Silver's prediction on how the rest of the map will turn out.
No wonder why Trump planted that fake story about Cruz. Too bad it didn't work.
>>69413166
>A FUCKING LEAF
John Kasich is such a fucking piece of shit.
>>69413166
I see you're attempting to make an argument here but I also see your source has a last name containing a precious metal hahaha tough luck pal
>>69413166
Kasich isn't even on the PA ballot, iirc
>>69413418
This
He doesn't have a shot and he knows it. He just wants to suck that GOPe cock
>>69413166
>Jeb
>4 delegates
WHEN I WAS
>>69413166
>Nate Silver
a hack
fly away, leaf
>>69413166
Nate (((SILVER))) has wrecked his reputation this cycle, on both sides since he said there was a 99.9% chance of Hillary winning Michigan.
I can see Trump winning WA, OR, PA and MT at the very least, with razor-thin margin wins in CO and WI, like with MO which had a prediction for an El Rato win.
>>69413166
>kasich winning a state he isnt on the ballot
bruh
>>69413166
what site is this?
Carson has 8 delegates? I thought if you endorsed someone your delegates went to them?
>>69413166
>giving Cruz states that don't even hold a fucking vote or have bound delegates (ND and CO)
>Kasich wins PA
>Trump totally doesn't win Washington and Oregon guys
>we don't even know the percentage he gave Trump in any of these states like West Virginia where he could make it winner take all or if he gave all of NY to Trump or if he's too much of a butthurt faggot to do so
>>69415036
It varies by state but generally they become Unpledged.
>>69415036
GOP changed the rules to make caucus states bound their delegates no matter what because they were butthurt over Ron Paul taking advantage of the system
>>69415036
No, they're just supposed to go to them in the brokered convention. Some states do it that way, I know Louisiana does.
>>69413166
website link?
>Kasich winning PA
looooooooooooooooooooooool
>>69415557
>because they were butthurt over Ron Paul taking advantage of the system
I forget. What did Ron Paul do?
>>69413166
Trump could win both MT and SD, and I don't see WA or OR being too friendly to Cruz.
Kasich won't win PA.
>>69413166
29+18+2+3 = 52
There's 52 states now? Puerto Pobre and Canada?
>>69415934
He basically stopped campaigning in the states with primaries and started getting his people and his supporters to flood the conventions and caucuses to become delegates.
He got single digits in Iowa but won like 20 of their delegates
>>69413566
At a brokered convention anything can happen, which is what he is gunning for.
I can think of one Republican president that was in last in the polls right before the convention, Warren G Harding
So it's still possible
>>69413166
Kasich isn't winning PA. It's so completely out of left field that I'm trying to understand what their logic could possibly be other then 'it's next to Ohio' when all the polls we have for that state show Trump leading by 8-15 points.
>>69413300
>its all about the data
>ignores the data
JUST
>>69413166
Give me the website you fucking cuck
>>69416693
Pro = he is from PA
Con = he is a union buster and PA voters will remember that.
>>69413166
>Nate Silver
Kek. Mother fucker has been wrong do many times thus far.
>>69416894
>>69415718
realclear politics interactive delegate map
>>69415606
So it's possible that Trump could be 1-8 votes short of being the candidate and Carson puts him over the edge? That's cool.
>>69413166
>Nate Silver
>>69416074
He's counting the island territories full of pineapple niggers as states.
>>69416074
>Puerto Pobre
is this a beaner joke?
>>69417342
No, after the first ballot most of Trump's delegates can vote for whoever they want.
Not happening for Trump.
>>69413166
538 has been ridiculously partisan this election. In their podcasts it's pretty blatantly obvious nearly every one that works there hates Trump.
His data might be roughly correct, but it's still pretty early and he most likely will do better than what 538 says since they are probably underestimating performance since they hate him. Plus Nate never seems to give error margins which is a little weird.
>>69413166
>Silver
>>69413166
Can feel the wind coming out of those Trump sails. Too bad,would have been funny AF.
>>69418939
he shouldn't be getting 1/10th of the press he has. all he did in 2012 was average some public polls. anyone could have done it and he's treated as some sort of math wizard.
and he's been consistently wrong for the past year but keeps doubling down
>>69413166
>Nate Copper
>Nate Silver
Who gives a fuck about what this hack says?
>>69413166
Kasich can't remotely hope to win Pennsylvania, since he won't be on the ballot.
The odds of Cruz winning Washington State and Oregon are fantastically low.
Wisconsin is now a near three way tie, at least if you bother to notice that the Optimus poll has a sample size several times larger than all other polls there combined; Trump, Cruz, and Kasich are in an almost literal tie with Trump having the narrowest of possible leads- however it's an open primary, so he should get a boost from independent voters.
Cruz will win Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana, and other than Wisconsin that's his literal limit. Once New York comes and goes it will become impossible for him to get 1237, and a large proportion of his fans will abandon him because their fear of a brokered convention is greater than their distaste for Trump.
Screencap this for when I am right (as I have been about literally every state other than Oklahoma and Maine.)
>>69413166
No, anon, Trump said he was gonna run the table, and trump can't ever be wrong.
Obviously.
>>69416950
>>69416693
>>69416068
>>69415899
Latest poll from PA has Kasich within 3% of Trump:
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/295186459482343904-f-m-poll-release-march-2016-1.pdf
JUST
ITT people who don't remember how Nate was the only one who was right about 2012
>PA going to kasich
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_republican_presidential_primary-3788.html
Nate silver has become retarded
>>69413166
DONALD DRUMPF ABSOLUTELY DRSTROYED
>>69422912
He has been wrong about almost everything in 2016
Wut?
>>69422730
Rubio dropped out and he won MORE states than Kasich. The guy's a loon
>>69422912
It was easy to predict 2012. Only complete abject morons ever thought Romney had a chance after the last debate and his 47% comments.
This cycle though virtually all lamestream oddsmakers, including Silver, have been wrong over and over- Silver a few months ago declared an inevitable dying off of Trump's campaign and never foresaw Sanders even being close to Clinton in delegates. Now he's eating crow and being a bit more reserved.
What he failed to predict kills his algorithms- a shift in the electorate away from partisan ideology and towards non-partisan issues, and away from two parties towards three, coupled with not just distrust of politicians, but outright contempt for anyone remotely connected with politics.
Silver seemed absolutely dumbfounded when Rubio managed to come in fifth in New Hampshire.
>>69422912
Only diehard /pol/ memesters thought mittens stood a chance
>>69422572
South Dakota is a Trump won for sure. Almost entire east side is supporting him and the west side has a fraction of the population.
>>69421798
This. He did the work, I give him that, but Silver is just a lucky cunt that made some election predictions right when the media started gushing about muh Big Data. I'm sick of hearing about how he's some oracle. Stats (or muh Big Data) isn't rocket science.
And yea, PA will be tight. Trump really needs to campaign had there.
>>69423543
South Dakota will go heavily for Cruz.
Trump though has a fairly good shot at grabbing Wisconsin next week and stalling out Cruz by the end of the night in New York. If Trump wins Wisconsin (winner take all) and New York (winner take all if the margin is high enough- which it will be) then Cruz would need slightly more than 100% of the remaining delegates to actually clinch it. Once this happens it's all the media will talk about for several days, and Cruz will be badgered nonstop by the press and told a few dozen times by Trump and a few million times by his fans to "drop out and support the victor." His campaign will begin to collapse and he'll have to make do with a few heavily evangelical states. That's why he won't win Washington or Oregon. Even if Trump loses Wisconsin he can still shove Cruz out of the needed delegate total when Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania vote- Cruz has a virtual 0% chance in any of them.
>>69423238
(((polls-plus)))
>>69423395
this
I follow their podcasts because I like listening to people talk about statistics and silver has been wrong about almost everything this election beyond predicting stuff a day or two beforehand. He would not shut up about how much Rubio was a sure thing, even as recently as before the texas primaries. The guy knows math but he has no method of making long-term predictions when the odds aren't between two people.
>>69413166
If that happened there will be blood.
Nate Silver has ruined any semblance of impartiality he may have had by acting like a retarded mongoloid and getting literally everything about this entire election cycle wrong. He is vocal about how Trump is a racist sexist xenophobic literally-Hitler menace who must be stopped at any cost, retweets every anti-Trump twitter post he can find and has gone from being a relatively respected political analyst to some maniac who foams at the mouth and is largely ignored because of how embarrassingly incorrect his own personal bias has made him and his website.
Maybe a Trump win will smack some sense of neutrality and self-reflection back into his crazed liberal head, but for now his opinions are worth about as much as a politifact piece.
>>69413166
Cruz will win Idaho for the same reason he won Utah. Trump will take everything else then pull a Reagan-vs-Mondale in 2020.
>>69424112
no .liberal faggots dont learn from experience . they learn through buttsecs and you cant teach much through buttsecs
>>69424375
Cruz already won Idaho lol.
>>69423395
It's hardly a failing for a statistician to be unable to account for an unprecedented change in the political winds. Sure, you can say the signs were there but it's easy to see trends in hindsight.
>>69424112
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/
not nate silver but the article was cited by him multiple times throughout the 'trump is not a serious candidate' phase
>>69424595
I foresaw everything currently happening long ago, back when the GOP changed its convention rules to fuck Ron Paul. On that day, they thought they were ensuring outsiders couldn't prosper, and Trump was chuckling because he knew that he could win the primaries by forcing centrists out simply by using social media to cast them as far left or controlled by donors and banks.
Nate Silver is a numbers man, so when paradigms shift his algorithms cannot keep up. It would be like trying to apply his oddsmaking skills in sports if there was a complete overhaul of the entire sport, its players, and its rules.
Those of us whose specialty is in people and social systems knew what Trump was doing very quickly. He will be the nominee. There will be no brokered convention.
Don't believe me? Screencap this and see what the media starts saying after New York ("Cruz can't get to 1237 so why the fuck is he still in?") Then watch Cruz' numbers carefully.
>>69419695
It will still be funny. The convention will bring many lulz
The GOPe doesn't care about winning anymore. They just want to stop Trump from destroying what pro-(((free trade))), pro-jewish image they spent decades on building up
They've already conceded to Hillary at this point
>>69424598
>>69424964
We'll see, but no matter what it's gonna be one hell of a ride.
>>69415276
Cruz has been attending the state conferences of open delegates already , he is counting on the unbound delegets to go for him
