I've been rying to piece together a democratic party "worst case scenario" is this a pretty accurate map of what the democratic party absolutely could not lose even in a total collapse situation?
I'm trying to be as realistic as possible. Of course wacky scenarios like California and New York going red are possible but those require a somewhat extraordinary occurrence to happen in my opinion.
I'm all in for Trump but this is the most likely outcome
In the interest of fairness this is my repub total collapse scenario
Trump doesn't need to go overboard like in your picture. He needs to flip on of the rustbelts like PA,Michigan, or Wisconsin. Or he can just pick Jim Webb as his running mate and be done . with it. Trump already has Florida and Ohio. If trump picks Webb it becomes mathematically impossible for Hillary to win.
>>69288447
I still think NY will go red.
>>69288270
I still think Kasich is the only one who could flip PA,Wisconsin or Michigan.
The GOP will lose Utah to the Dems should Trump become its presidential candidate.
>>69289592
I dunno Germanfriend I've been there in the last 6 months and I don't think anything could get Clinton Utah
>>69289508
>Kasich flipping PA
Good jokes.
>>69289368
It's very possible. He's from NYC, so he will garner some support there regardless of it being a liberal stronghold. He'll win Upstate NY handily. People seem to forget the majority of new yorkers live outside of the city...
>>69289833
Kasich polls ahead of the witch in PA. He is from there and liked there, and appeals to the moderates.
>>69290073
Kasich is a "literally who?" candidate
>>69290073
I'm from PA. He hasn't got a fucking chance of flipping PA.
>>69290333
Yea, That is why in every poll he is winning by double digits. Unless you are one of those Trump or Cruz retards that thinks the media is fucking with the polls.
>>69289368
I wouldnt bet on that under 6:1
>>69288873
you could remove utah and arizona
>>69290548
Those same polls show Kasich with next to no minority support.
Not.
A.
Fucking.
Chance.
>>69290548
Literally nobody here supports Kasich. It's Trump country, for the most part.
>>69290809
Typical libtard. Keep pretending Philly niggers will come out and vote. They wont. We're a conservative state like it or not.
>>69290819
Romney came close to to beating OBUMMER even with all the nigger support.
Coming from a liberal who wants to see Trump win, this would be one the best cases for Trump. I don't think Trump will DESTROY Clinton in the general, but I believe he will do just enough to pull off a win (hopefully)
>>69291005
>philly
>conservative state
>has voted democrat in the general for the past few decades
u wot m8
>>69289368
>>69290016
Why do Trump supports make this insanely retarded comment? Hillary is from NY too, and much more liked there than Trump.
Trump has never held office in NY, there is no reason to think he would have any advantage there. NY is a very strong democrat state. Its pure fantasy to think Trump will lose by less than a 10% margin there.
>>69291005
A conservative state that hasn't gone red for the presidency since the 80s. Like it or not, Philthadelphia's nignogs aren't going to vote for good golly gee republican white man and you need at least a few democrats to swing republican if you plan to flip it.
>>69291283
kek that yellow name
Hopefully he gets new york. If anyone can pull the micracle of gaining new york, it's the Donald.
utah probably wont flip but i wouldnt be surprised if it did
isnt the dindu vote too strong for MI to turn red?
>>69291428
What if we can convince Sanders to run third party?
>>69291730
Oh I was just messing around with the third party map
A lot of bernie supporters' hopes is that we can prop up Jill Stein enough to steal votes from Clinton
>>69291779
>utah out of all the states in the west turning blue
otherwise not too bad
>>69291872
He already said he won't-but getting Jill Stein (Green Party) popular would be a great idea
>>69291872
There is a zero chance of Sanders running third party because he knew it would handing the election to Trump who has diametrically opposite policies.
This is my prediction for the election
>>69291428
>Hillary is from NY too
Hillary Clinton was born in Illinois and lived most of her life in Arkansas. She was elected governor of New York after having resided in the state for less than a year.
The Republicans won't win New York, that's insane, but the reason they'll lose there isn't because it's Hillary Clinton's home state.
>>69292348
Nice tabs, Juan.
You didn't even try.
>>69292022
Ross Perot ran as a third party and gave the '92 and '96 elections to Bill Clinton, despite being diametrically opposed to Clinton's free trade policies.
>>69292831
The thing is though, Sanders has STRONGLY opposed himself running as 3rd party. Don't get your hopes up, the only other hope is hoping Green Party gets popular enough. If Sanders campaigners put as much effort into Stein as they did into Sanders, I wouldn't be surprised if she hit 10% in the polls early on.
>>69292449
Hillary was not governor, she was a senator. She won her first election by 13% and her re-election 36%. NY loves Clinton.
>>69292831
Its far more likely a conservative runs third party opposed to trump then Sanders of all people to run third party. It would be completely against his character to do so.
this would be the best case scenario for the lord emperor
if PA and/or VA flip its all over. as much as id love to see NY flip its not going to happen, although it might be close
>>69293102
>NY loves Clinton.
Sure, and she's going to win there in the presidential election, but that doesn't magically turn New York into Hillary's home state.
>>69293102
>Its far more likely a conservative runs third party
It's most likely of all that neither Sanders nor Trump run a third party campaign.
And while Sanders is, on a personal level, less likely to run as an independent than Trump, he's also less likely to win the Democratic nomination than Trump is to win the Republican nomination.
>>69293695
I'm saying that is far more likely someone like Kasich (not him, but a traditional conservative who hasn't run in the primary) runs independent to essentially sabotage Trump reverse Ross-Perot-style.
It will be this and can only ever be this. Michigan will never go red, neither will NY or Penn. NH has a small chance but we don't need that if we win Ohio and Nevada, which are more likely this election.
My crooked teeth found this pic of a future where texas goes blue.
>>69294523
is a chris christie endorsement enough to turn NJ red or does it work against trump?
>>69294523
While I feel if the election was held today the Dems would win, I also feel NH would go Red
I remember after the Democratic Primary exit polls where 5% of Clinton supporters would never vote Bernie, but 25% of Bernie supporters would never support Clinton
The Clinton hate is strong in NH
>>69294888
>he thinks endorsements will flip a strong blue state
even if christie was universally loved in NJ, NJ would still vote Blue
>>69290016
NYC thinks Trump is racist and would never vote for him
At times I'm nervous about Virginia.
Can we count on them at all? Northern half almost swung the primary for Rubio; they're as purple as purple gets.
>>69295020
i wasnt aware of how "blue" NJ is t b h, i thought something like that could have helped. is he considered to be a shitty governor?
>>69295386
Yeah, he's been pretty disliked since Bridgegate a few years ago, and NJ was really pissed at him endorsing Trump
>>69294888
Lol no. Christie's approval is in shambles, the entirety of NJ hates him.
>>69289592
No way in hell, Utah is the reddest state in the union.
The thing I can never understand when seeing all of these is winning california nets you 1/5 of all potential winnings and they are allowed to wipe their ass with your constitution like the no voter id incident
>>69290809
>>69290224
>>69290333
yeah cucks, go ahead and throw the election, if hillary wins we would be lucky to have status quo (which is still a leftist slide) or worse if sanders win this country will jolt left.
So yeah go ahead and throw the elections dumbass.
John Kasich most likely.
>>69296044
Honestly? My worry isn't that Trump supporters don't want Kasich. That's fine.
My worry is that Trump supporters will accidentally steer everyone away from Trump. Don't you retards realize that you can't just call your opposition a cuck in the general and still win?
>>69296420
i keked
>>69296420
GOLLY GEE
THIS IS JUST NUTS
>>69295365
As someone who lives in Virginia (Northern to be precise), Trump really needs to work his ass off here. You clearly saw that Northern Virginia and Richmond almost cost us the state, but luckily Virginia Beach and the rest of the state pulled though. While our state is generally red, the mass immigration of nigs, illegals and yankees have started turning our state purple. Our legislature and our congressional districts are mostly red, but our governor and senators are blue.
>>69288447
>Most likely
>Florida blue
>>69288270
New Hampshire hates Obamacare, they're going red.
has anyone got a comparison between primary / caucus and general turnouts per state? it would be interesting to see a trend between the two, if theres any at all
>>69296044
The only one throwing the election would be Kasich if he really is so deluded as to believe the party will unite behind him if he robs both Trump and Cruz at the convention.
He absolutely 110% has NO chance of winning.
>>69296468
>Trump needing to beat Kasich
You realize he's like, I don't know, FORTY POINTS AHEAD OF KASICH?
Can we just get something straight, please? PA does not go red before VA.
>>69288873
Worst case? Add in Tx and AZ and GA and MT and maybe UT
>>69288270
colorado is still a swing state, could go trump as well. other than that, yes that's about as red as the country could ever get again, as long as brown people stay stupid/slaves.
>>69288447
>niggers till give florida blue
>>69297127
primary is no where near an indication of general election turnout, sadly, for some reason
>>69288270
I would put OH and WI in the blue and VA in the red.
There already was a lib worst case scenario. It was called 1980.
>>69296628
NoVa is such a fucking cancer on our state. I'm a VT student and every third person here is from NoVa. All of them are faggots.
>>69298425
yeah ive heard that, i was hoping someone might have a nice little chart / graph to show the difference in voter turnout, per party & state
which states would flip if bernie got the D nomination?
would it be possible for PA and WI to flip red in that scenario? NH would definitely stay blue id imagine
>>69299063
lel if bernie won prepare for an assblasting
But with Hillary? Trump could possibly turn Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe PA red
>>69297127
Lmao did you realize you compared Democratic CAUCUS numbers to the Republican popular count? You don't actually think 1,500 people showed up in Iowa right?
Democrats report caucus results by precints not popular vote; Iowa Democrat turnout was around 180,000 for example
![349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/vXF7OxS.png "349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg[1].png")
>>69298687
>lib worse case
Only if you ignore the next election...
>>69299674
i didnt make the jpg but i realised that when i first saw it posted. im pretty sure the democrat turnout in Nevada was meant to be bigger than the GOP one.
how do caucus numbers usually work? i dont believe that only 20,000 odd people voted in WA, that sounds way too small
oh wait you already answered that, thanks amerifriend
>>69299911
No problem, I don't really get how caucus numbers work completely either; you just have to estimate turnout based on reports
GOP turnout is still higher, just not 100 times higher
>>69299679
1972 was better
>Didn't even win his home state.
>>69288447
OH PA NV and FL all blue? Are you delusional? Have you seen turnout numbers in these states?
>>69299911
>>69300258
Turn out in primaries has nothing to do with the general election turnout because the primary's competitiveness is not related to the general election's competitiveness. For example a strong, unifying candidate may draw extremely low turnout as people expect him to win anyway. On the other hand a dirty, ruthless, draw out primary bloodbath could lead to low general election turnout for the eventual winner because the party themselves end up compromising their own candidate.
>>69299439
If bernie won the nomination, NY going red would be a possibility
>>69298729
I got a few friends who go to VT and are red pilled, like most people, they don't want to reveal their power level to avoid feeling the wrath of SJWs
>>69300866
It's worth noting two things:
1. Primary turnout has nearly no correlation to the general
2. Primary turnout is basically always higher under the non-party ruling
For example, after Bush in 2007/8, Democrats were furious similar to republicans now, and there was record turnout for them. People consider Bernie v Hillary a fight, but Obama v Hillary was a BLOODBATH with crazy high turnout
>>69300933
this
>>69301087
>"i don't understand the concept of polling/blue states"
even if bernie or hillary killed their spouse on tv NY would still lean blue
>>69288447
Virginia, New york, florida, ohio, washington, illinois will all go red and that is more than enough
>>69301446
>WA going red
isnt that state more commie than california?
>>69288270
NH and VA would also be red, worst-case.
I think this is close to a baseline based on current polling.
Trump's advantage being pretty immune to gaffs or other meltdowns. He can win if there is a dem meltdown (like Clinton indictment).
>>69301593
The person you responded to is delusional, NY/IL/WA are guaranteed Blue
>>69301593
Yes. WA will not go red this election.
>>69301782
Yep. VA is a serious battleground and a key to Trump winning in most situations I can think of. This is my most likely win. Also can swap OH to blue for IA and WI to red. My take is that the blacks in Cleveland, Dayton, and Cincy stay at home this year and Trump takes OH.
>>69301446
>Virginia
We're surprisingly anti-trump here, plus fairfax tends to swing the entire state blue.
>>69301199
>even if bernie or hillary killed their spouse on tv NY would still lean blue
Nah, Clinton would lose the black vote if she killed Bill. The blacks only know her as "dat bitch who is married to saxophone president"
>>69302647
Trump is not winning Nevada
>>69288270
>>69288270
NY will go red. The majority of the state is red already, NYC is the only reason it is blue, but Trump is beloved in the city.
>>69288873
That is the Kasich or Cruz as nominee scenario map.
And this is best case Scenario total meltdown of the Democratic Party.
>>69288270
Ny can go to trump after he tears hillary apart
its possible anon so in a worst case scenario NY is Red
What are the odds of Bernie tearing the D party apart when he inevitably drops out? His supporters are fanatical, I can't see them going to Hillary even to stop their anti-christ Trump.
>>69306789
ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Bernie Sanders supporters would go to great lengths to stop trump.
>>69306430
>castro
lolwut?
>>69307255
Julian Castro
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Castro
I live in NJ and a democrat could never lose here. North Jersey has too many liberals.
>>69307361
What's wrong with this guy's face? He looks like an immortal from 300. Is she trying to pander for the "LGBT vote" with this literally who?
>>69307762
basically
>>69305070
Why not?
>>69296420
Kek
You fucking idiots think Trump has a chance? If I were you, i'd stop relying on a phony Hitler, go to Ukraine, establish your own faction and take over some land.
>>69295883
http://m.deseretnews.com/article/865650513/Poll-Utah-would-vote-for-a-Democrat-for-president-over-Trump.html?pg=all
>>69289368
Obama won New York by 63% in 2012. New York is an incredibly liberal state.
Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin are probably all going blue. North Carolina is probably going red. Pennsylvania is definitely blue, it's always blue. Trump might win New Hampshire. Virginia is probably blue.
Ohio and Florida are up in the air but are blue leaning at the moment. Anyone thinking Texas, Georgia, Arkansas, or Missouri flopping blue it's not time yet. In the future it's completely possible because of demographic shift.
Regardless, even if Trump wins Florida and Ohio, with all the extremely likelies in place like this in place, he still has to win New Hampshire and Virginia. If he loses either Florida or Ohio, the election is over.
Oh and to anyone who thinks PA will go red, it's been blue for nearly 30 years. Last election the Republics public said they would have to enforce strict voter id laws in order to prevent 'certain types' of people from voting in order to even have a chance at PA. That's how low confidence GOP is there.
>>69308920
you have to go back...
>>69291428
>Why do Trump supports make this insanely retarded comment?
echo chamber effect. No one challenges /pol/ on Trump because there's no normies here. Everyone keeps hearing that Trump will win New York, Nevada, Pennsylvania etc. and it's widely accepted even though none of those states will even be within 10 points for Trump.
>>69307361
>>69307762
He looks like Mr.Sulu
>>69288270
VA and CO are swing states. VA was red in every election from 1968 until Obama, it's not somehow safe now. CO had the same record but went blue in 92 with Perot splitting the right.
New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania are safe dem states, they've both gone blue every time since 92. People here imagine they can all swing because of Trump's trade platform, or in NJ's case Christie's endorsement, but they're not realistic targets.
PA will never go red in our lifetimes.
Some of the most bluepilled dumb goys on the planet live here.
Also, the dindus in Philly and Pittsburgh vote Democrat every time no matter what.
Source: PAfag
>>69303827
This fucking county almost cost us the primary, I'm not gonna let it cost us the general
<--------------
Here's my fancy map
>>69288447
This...seems accurate.
VA, FL, OH and NV may flip for Trump, though.
