Is there still a chance Sanders could get the nomination?
No.
>>68972829
yes
>>68972829
None, and I'll explain why.
New York is a closed primary worth over 250 delegates. Sanders is already behind by over 200 delegates. New York will be a full stop to his campaign. He never wins closed primaries. He won't win New York. He'll lose bad and the delegate gap will be insurmountable.
But if by some chance he can pull off some meme miracle, the superdelegates will pull the kill switch on his campaign. People think that they will not do this do not understand the different dynamics of this election cycle compared to 2008. Barack Obama was a pliable corporate puppet. Sanders is not. His rhetoric about overturning Citizens United and eliminating the influence of special interests in politics is terrifying to the Establishment. Their own careers are at stake and they will never, under any circumstances, shift their loyalty from Clinton. Some superdelegates such as Howard Dean have literally said as much.
And there you have it. That's as fact based and objective as I can possibly be.
Yes no, maybe. I don't know. Can you repeat the question?
>>68973063
one minor mistake: I meant to say worth around 250 delegates. It actually has 247 at stake. Though hell, if you count superdelegates it probably does have more than 250.
>>68973141
Fuck off tmbg
>>68972829
Yes. The superdelegates could jump ship from the cunt like they did in 2008. Will they? Probably not. But there is a slim chance they do and he gets the nom.
>>68973063
I was looking for someone who could give me a straight detailed answer to this.
>>68972829
Outside of Clinton dying, no.
>>68973063
Good explanation. I was a Bernie supporter till around last winter when I really sat and thought about the things he is proposing. I don't think a direction toward socialism is the way to go. I think it discourages competition at every level
>>68972954
A snowballs chance in hell
No but hey you guys can post more pictures of Bernie with some stupid pest bird.
>>68973063
>the superdelegates will pull the kill switch
Party unity's gonna be cold comfort to the dems when Trump curbstomps Hillary.
>>68973394
I'm still a Bernie supporter, though I hate his economic policies, particularly free college education.
I support him because I think campaign finance reform is pivotal to solving the malaise and corruption endemic in our political system. I also care more about foreign policy than most Americans since I'm a bit of an IR and history guy. I think Sanders has a fairly solid foreign policy with clear-cut and narrow objectives. To be fair, I think Trump's foreign policy (what he has presented of it anyways) sounds fairly solid as well (though some of his advisers are questionable).
In terms of likelihood of victory, though, I think Sanders' chances are abysmal. he does well in open primaries because he attracts many independent voters to turn out. he does terribly in closed primaries and that is why new york is likely to hit him like a truck.
>>68972829
Yes, but only if you match my $10,000 donation.
>>68973304
There is pretty much no chance that superdelegates jump from Clinton when she has the delegate lead. It only becomes interesting if Bernie ends up with a narrow delegate lead whether they try to overrule the will of the people, as the optics would be terrible. I still think Clinton wins even in that circumstance.
>>68973574
Already did my friend. If Trump wins, Spain will have a dictatorship!!1!11!!
>>68973521
I agree with you 100%, but I don't think it will come down to superdelegates anyways. I've outlined above why I think the pledged delegate math favors Clinton moving forward. These spate of states up to New York will end up looking like a consolation prize compared to the big apple.
>>68973569
I think Sanders would be weak on foreign policy in practice. Kind of like how weak Obama is. Especially with the middle east. Guys like Khomeini and other leaders would bully the fuck out of him.
Now imagine Trump in that scenario...
It's find it interesting that Sanders has run Clinton relatively close, given that Clinton was practically coronated by the DNC before the campaign even started. This suggests that there is a large proportion of Democrats unhappy with the status quo and reinforces the idea that Clinton is not well-liked or an especially good campaigner. I don't think Sanders is an especially great candidate and he has massively overachieved.
>>68972829
As a Trump supporter who would 1000x times prefer Bernie to Hillary as president I can unbiasedly agree that there is no way he gets the nomination.
If he had much more steam by this point in the process, and by that I mean a STRONG lead over Hillary in pledged delegates (i.e. if they were switched right now) it would be 50/50.
I mean fuck, just look how Trump is being treated by the establishment with his enormous lead over Cruz and how things may head into a brokered convention due to GOP shenanigans.
The reason the media has been treating Bernie with kid gloves is because they know he stands no real chance, but they need to give the illusion that the DNC nomination wasn't guaranteed to Hillary this time around. I still am unsure if Bernie is an eccentric pinko who has no idea that he is a pawn or if he is paid opposition trying to shill for the donations and a lofty position in her administration to appease his bern victims.
I will go as far as to admit he is overperforming and exceeding expectations, but it was a rigged game from the start. Literally the only way he gets the nomination is if Hillary dies or gets arrested in the next few months.
Only if enough people wake up and realise Trump is satire, he is satire.
Trump is satire.
The Republican Party is dead.
Whoever wins the dem nomination WINS.
>>68974013
>gets arrested
>implying they would ever actually arrest a real criminal that has government support
>>68973996
Iran is always tricky, but they are making so much money now that they can bank on all that oil. I'm not sure they want to stir the waters with Sanders given that Sanders seems friendly to them anyways. You can call it naivete, but I think he can keep the current status quo with them.
Russia would be more disconcerting to me, but I'm not sure Putin would be entirely gun ho on bullying a Sanders administration either. Sanders is in favor of keeping the Assad regime and focusing on ISIS, which would appeal well enough to Russia's regional interests. I don't think Sanders has any real stance in Crimea or any particular point of disagreement with Russia elsewhere on foreign policy. Once again it's hard for me to see where conflict would arise unless some new issue of irredentism pops up that forces Russia into another invasive war.
I actually worry about Trump's reaction in foreign policy scenarios since he has a large ego. I'm concerned that he might end up being trigger happy or diplomatically tactless, both potential recipes for disaster. There is no doubt that our PR with Muslim nations would take a dive as well. While that wouldn't matter in some cases, it could affect our geostrategical agenda in certain regions of the world where Muslim allies or potential allies are potential keys to victory.
>>68973063
>Overturning Citizens United
When will this autism stop? You can't overturn a fucking Supreme Court ruling for fucks sake.
>>68972829
It's fundamentally possible but the cards are stacked against him. Something really stupid would have to happen for him to suddenly get the support of the party.
>>68973574
matched :3
Any berniebros down for a late night match?
I just donated an extra 14 dollars (along with three quarters, a dime, and 3 pennies i found in the couch lol)
every little bit counts
>>68974400
This whole election has been really stupid.
>>68974010
I agree with you on all points. Sanders is not a particularly charismatic candidate or brilliant campaigner. The fact that he has gotten as far as he has, which is impressive given what he was up against, is a testament to widespread disillusionment with Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party establishment led by the perennially unpopular Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
>>68974497
No, it's been painfully predictable. All it has shown is that the political establishment is unable to cope with a true grassroots movement. The Democrat primary is pretty much business as usual though, there's nothing to predict because all of the players are thoroughly ordinary.
>>68974390
His plan would be to appoint a supreme court justice that would be in favor of the notion. Whether or not a different and less corporate aligned court could overturn the decision during his presidency is in doubt, but it's also possible that some legislative action could be taken toward campaign finance reform as well.
yes it's true that the executive branch cannot directly overturn a supreme court decision, but he also isn't entirely powerless given his power to appoint justices (and there is a vacancy right now unlikely to be filled) and other executive powers.
>>68973996
All of this assumes that world instability comes from US rivals aggressing against us. Ukraine was under russian influence and the shia controlled Syria. It was the US and their allies who went on the offensive and upset that balance.
>>68974334
>I'm concerned that he might end up being trigger happy or diplomatically tactless
There's really no reason to think this stop spreading this thought.
Dear lord Hillary needs to be arrested. If what she did was done by a normal governmental employee they would have their door kicked down and been dragged off. Christ the more I know about it the more I realize how many fucking felonies she commited.
The only way Obama can save face is arresting her.
There is a republican controlled senate. If Obama doesn't tell the attorney general to indite he the FBI is gonna sit on their hands until the election. If she wins they're going to hand the information over to the Republican controlled senate to impeach her. Or they're gonna hand it to the Republican nominee who is gonna drag her name through the mud apologetically.
That is one thing Bernie has. He is one of the few people running I can look at and say he actually wants what is best for this country, even if what he believes is best might be wrong. Trump too, even if I don't agree with him either.
This race is disgusting, it feels like it gets worse every time.
>>68974390
republicans have campaigned on overturning roe v wade for 40 years, cut em some slack
>>68974729
He does not seem like a person who holds punches, and sometimes that can backfire in diplomacy. I'm sure he's already offended plenty of world leaders already, and I've listed specific examples of where I feel his rhetoric could endanger U.S. objectives. Particularly with regard to combating ISIS, I do not think sheer military force is enough (although it is certainly a necessity to some extent). There also needs to be some propaganda in order to secure US goals of stability in the region, cause defections from ISIS and overall undermine terrorist groups. Al-Qaeda cannot be ignored as well. While ISIS is overt, Al-Qaeda is covert and is still at large and powerful in certain areas. They are likewise fighting a battle to win the hearts and minds of people in the region, which is a battle we cannot afford to lose. Unfortunately, I feel that many of Trump's statements damage our chances to win that battle.
>>68974815
Obama is dead.
Hes not american or president.
He shat in everyones faces and on congress
>>68974390
Yes, you can.
Rulings get reviewed. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.
>>68975124
He looks so tired recently. It happens to presidents but it seems worse for him. He honestly looks like he's dying.
>>68974390
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_overruled_United_States_Supreme_Court_decisions
>This list is incomplete.
How many seconds would that have taken you to look up? I know you're an underaged faggot who only got into politics about 12 minutes ago, but try not to embarrass yourself.
>>68975124
i wish right wing fantasy obama actually existed, it would be interesting at least. neoliberalism is so soulless, i can't even get mad at it. it's like there's nothing there. The cultural right has every reason to hate this shit, but i see very few who grasp what's really sad about it.
he's just a dorky debate club autismo
>>68975007
I don't know you just sound ignorant about the Middle East's cultural differences. The best scenario we could ever have with them is what we had during the 90s when we let Saddam take care of & obliterate the religious terrorist factions of the middle east.
What a lot of Westerners don't understand is that Saddam wasn't hated because he was a dictator, they hated him because he's Westernized.
As much as I hate the "Israel are our closest allies" meme, it is fairly true in regards to the middle east. They're the only middle eastern nation who somewhat shares our cultural values, or at least the ones we used to have before we decided that borders, & American culture don't matter any more.
>>68974191
The republican party died way before Trump. The people who vote republican are unhappy with the republicans, this is how Trump rose to prominence during this election cycle.
He represents some of the stances that conservatives have always had, but were not being ignored by the neocons. Voting for Trump is a revolt against republicans, and with good reason. Fuck them. What's the fucking difference between a neocon Republican and Hillary?
>>68975007
>and that can sometimes backfire in diplomacy
Thanks for sharing your extensive experience in international politics with us, Hans Brix
>>68972829
No.
