Looks like Nate Silver produced a new 2016 general election prediction map the other day. It shows Trump going up against Clinton. Shit doesn't look good for the Republicans.
What are your thoughts, /pol/?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/713036414745575424/photo/1
>>68888159
This guy has been wrong about nearly everything this primary cycle.
>>68888296
yeah so he underestimated the stupidity of the GOP base. Doesn't say anything about his thoughts on the general electorate.
>>68888159
le Ceiling man
RIP Nate's career
2008 - November 2016
AZ, NC blue uh huh
>>68888159
>AZ
>Blue
>>68888159
>georgia
>blue
Wow this guy is a pro
>Florida
>blue
>Hillary
>winning Georgia
Oh come the fuck on.
>>68888159
>Arizona, Florida, Georgia, NC
>Blue
Nope.
Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire will all be swing states.
>>68889311
the blacks love the clintons
wouldn't surprise me if Shillary won 2-3 deep south states, GA, AR, SC
>>68888159
I can only imagine how delicious the flowing tears would be here if this happened.
I can see it now: AMERICA IS DEAD WAAHHHH ;((
Nate Silver was on recode podcast this week: http://recode.net/podcast-player/543971 after listening to this, it should be obvious that he has big bias against Trump, in case it wasn't clear already before.
>>68890390
You're one of those fags who thinks Pennsylvania and NH are going to go red, aren't you?
>>68888159
HAHAHAHA I hope this kike doesn't kill himself once Trump becomes president and he loses all credibility. Pundits from the entire spectrum of political inclination are so out of touch with the voter base and reality this election season, it's ridiculous
>>68888511
holy fuck how can one man be so butt blasted for so long?
>>68890407
If the 2014 elections mean anything, they would suggest GA would vote red exceedingly over blue.
>>68890698
Trump has a -27 net favorable rating with independents and a -70 net favorable rating with Democrats, soooo.. yeah, a LOT of people in the United States have a "big bias against Trump"
>>68888884
This.
Nice almost-septs btw.
>>68890894
watching him get assfucked by reality is incredibly pleasing
>>68888159
>Hillary winning by a landslide despite being the candidate with the most dirt on her in generations
JUST
>>68890745
Check the primary turnout. Republicans are outnumbering demfags in every state.
>>68890698
If I was an early balding gay jew, I'd probably hate Trump as well.
>>68890972
>If the 2014 elections mean anything
They don't. Allow me to explain why.
Mid-term elections consistently have turnout that is 20% or more lower than Presidential cycles. In 2014, turnout was particularly low, which means the increase in turnout for 2016 compared to 2014 should be quite significant. Higher turnout is generally accepted to be an advantage for Democrats. As a result, the 2016 election in Georgia is most certainly going to be significantly closer than it was in 2014.
>>68888159
>GA blue
>AZ blue
Did he just take a blue and red crayon and go crazy?
>>68888511
>lenervousman.jpeg
>>68891091
>Check the primary turnout
Primary turnout has no correlation to votes in a general election. There is no relationship at all. In fact, all primary turnout measures is the competitiveness of a primary. The GOP primary had many candidates, and was quite competitive, so they had a high turnout. On the other hand, the Dems only ever had 2 serious candidates, so their turnout was lower.
>>68891089
Media and such haven't gone to work on Hillary yet. So far the focus was on Trump and Bernie and nobody else. El Rato is currently getting it also but he's done soon.
At which point only Shillary and Trump remain and for Trump there isn't anything new to dig up anymore. For Shillary there's enough ammunition around to reenact World War 1 and 2.
>>68888159
So 2008 with GA and AZ swapped for IN and SC.
>>68890407
Obama lost GA. The blacks don't love Hillary more than they love Obama.
This guy is a retard. Trump will lose Utah even if he wins the election.
>>68890407
SCfag here, SC will never go blue. 3/4 of our negroes don't even know who the Clinton's are, and the ones who do don't vote.
>>68891299
PAfag here. Can confirm that at least 50k dems have formally switched to Republican since January 1st. Stop shilling
oh its that guy whose been writing 'trump is finished' articles for the over a year now.
>geogia blue
>arizona blue
oh yes romney only won georgia by EIGHT FUCKING PERCENT, and that was going up against the large black voter turnout for obama.
why on fucking earth would georgia ever go fucking blue?
>>68888159
If the contest were held today is the key word. Does it look good? No, it doesn't. Is this the end of Trump's campaign? Not by a longshot. Since polling has started, we've seen multiple elections where the incumbent and prominent challenger seemed to be heading for certain defeat or victory, only to have it taken out back by the jowls. Make up your own mind, support the candidate you think is best, to the extent you think he should lead the free world. Debate others who support another, don't get angry, and keep the high ground.
>>68891550
>PAfag here
Whether or not you live in PA is irrelevant. Also, a 100k swing for Republicans (assuming your numbers are right,) means pretty much nothing in a state like Pennsylvania. As a matter of fact, the republican candidate for governor in 2014 lost by a much wider margin than that, and this was in an election year with very low turnout. PA has no chance of turning red, and 50k voters won't change that.
>>68888511
>INCREASINGLY
>>68888159
>Looks like Nate Silver produced a new 2016 general election prediction map the other day. It shows Trump going up against Clinton. Shit doesn't look good for the Republicans.
Georgia going blue in 2016 is impossible.
It's hilarious, as the pundits and polls predicted Dems Jason Carter and Whats-her-name Nunn would win governor / Senate last election, and they both got destroyed by Republicans. And by yuuuuuuuge margins.
>>68888864
>Mexicans
Democrats are great at stealing elections, especially if they have a whole army of real people to cast fake votes.
>>68889311
Georgia has been trending from red to purple for years now. Combine that with a candidate that is intensely unpopular with the types of demographics that are growing in metro Atlanta and minorities you get the potential of the state going blue.
>>68888399
Maybe he's underestimating the "stupidity" of the American people and all true patriots.
Nate Silver has been wrong ever since Trump got on the race.
The truth about his predictions is that they assume the election will go down as if it was "generic Republican" vs. "generic Democrat" with current demographics as a backdrop.
The truth is, Trump throws a massive fucking wrench at said style of predictions.
>>68888159
>Nate Silver
>Literally wrong about everything so far this year
I like Trump's chances even more now
>>68891757
PA was and always will be a swing state you moron. Do you even know what that means? PA will go red for Trump this cycle. Everyone here has a very positive opinion of him.
>>68891973
>The truth is, Trump throws a massive fucking wrench at said style of predictions.
You're absolutely right. Trump turns this from a possible-GOP-win to a guaranteed Democratic landslide victory.
>>68892053
Pennsylvania hasn't gone blue in Presidential elections since 1988, friendo.
>>68892200
>>68892053
red, not blue.
damnit why do I keep doing that.
It's been blue every presidential election since 1992
>>68891852
They were projecting based on 2012 presidential election results, which wasn't a good call on their part since those usually favor Democrats, instead of the previous midterms, which usually favor Republicans. Still, they only won by about 200,000 votes.
>>68892253
Can't even keep your own shill narrative straight.
>>68888399
yes it does
This dude is always wrong.
>>68892352
So I mixed up blue and red, big deal, I type fast and think faster.
The point is that PA has been blue in every Presidential election from 1992 to today. PA is no swing state, quit fooling yourself. It's a solid blue state, and has been since I was 2 years old.
>>68892200
The Republicans also haven't put a nationalist, protectionist who appeals to working class whites as their nominee in literally I don't even know when
It doesn't even matter if all other demographics swing further Democrat, If Trump can get working class white voters to turn out at in higher numbers he's won the election, and PA with it.
best case scenario for trump desu
Silver is a pathetic shill living off his lucky success in 2012.
>>68892200
And? It's still considered a swing state. PA has almost 9M voters. 4M dems and 3M Republicans. Trump will easily pull independent voters as well as democratic voters. Get fucked weeb.
>>68892459
>>68892525
>This delusion
see y'all in November when the Democratic candidate wins Pennsylvania with no less than 55% of the vote.
>>68892459
His problem is that he's only really popular with working class white men. Women of the same group do not like him.
>>68892497
>Texas
>Blue
Yea, okay
>>68892504
kek
>>68888159
>Believing a gay jew that works for the kike run ESPN and ABC.
>>68892623
The GOP is going to run an independent and "true conservatives" will vote for whoever Glenn Beck tells them to, which will be that independent.
>>68892598
>literally won't even argue back
Get fucked Bernie shill
>>68892598
I'm not saying he simply gets the nomination and then all whites bow down to him
He's got an uphill battle and Hillary is definitely favoured right now but there's is a LONG way to go to the election and this cycle has been nothing like any other.
>>68892497
>texas
>blue
>>68892452
>this is a normal election
It is you who is fooling yourself
>>68892497
>UT, KS, TX blue
WEW LAD
E
W
L
A
D
Where do you buy your crack?
>>68892053
I live in Allentown, a blue area, I have no idea why you think Trump will win PA. Its unlikely, as much as I love trump
>>68892730
Nigger are you illiterate? I've explained in detail why PA will go blue once again. Read my other posts, I'm not explaining it all again.
>>68892764
I believe that Trumplets are blowing the "this is an election like no other" narrative way out of proportion. What we're witnessing is the GOP coalition imploding. It says nothing else about the election cycle besides that. Watch and learn, friendo.
>>68888159
>Utah
>Red
>>68888511
OP
BLOWN
THE
FUCK
OUT
>>68892769
It's abnormal for the Republicans. Trump is the embodiment of the electorate they have created and stoked with promises they could not keep and now they're being eaten alive by their own creation. The rest is going normally.
>>68888159
I told you stupid shits I was from the future. It's only downhill from here.
>>68888159
>Shit doesn't look good for the Republicans.
>>68888159
Nate Silver has literally been completely wrong on everything with Trump, this result is as likely as the exact opposite of it in pic related because of how retarded and butt blasted Nate is
>>68893111
Maybe if they had ran a Democrat who wasn't riddled with scandals and dead bodies. Clinton is what you'd call a target rich environment for Trump.
>>68892497
>yfw PA goes red
>>68888511
/thread
>>68893209
Curious is the trapmaker's art
>>68893275
>Clinton is what you'd call a target rich environment for Trump
He can target her all he wants, she's still a better choice for President than he will ever be, and the American people know it.
>>68892497
Not Texas. Not for another 10 yrs
>>68893275
His problem with Clinton is that she's already well known and her current scandal is going to be taken care of before the conventions even start. He can repeat what is already known but it won't have the same impact as if Sanders was his opponent since most of his skeletons are still in the closet.
>>68893397
>the American people know it
You a funny guy, you know? Have a (you)
>>68892504
>lucky success
>fully disclosed algorithms giving him 100% predictive success
You really need to leave your echo chamber and talk with real people
>>68892966
I moved from Weaversville after 30 years in PA. Philly & PBurg must offset all the inbred Dumb Dutch between them.
>>68888511
You know the last one is actually a bait and switch title, right?
>>68892966
PA is a swing state though.
Romney was unpopular as shit. He came within 300,000 votes of beating Obama.
Dubya came with 200,000 votes against Gore.
Dubya almost won PA, was within 100,000 votes against Kerry.
Do yall not look this stuff up?
Of course he's going to get stomped by HIllary - it's all about demographics.
The GOP tends to win around 60% of white voters the last two general elections, and they've still lost.
Hillary will win with minorities, and middle aged and older white women: the general election is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP.
>>68893564
>Expecting Trumplets to actually read beyond the headline of an article
I don't buy Georgia and North Carolina going blue, but the rest is likely accurate. They'll revise it when better numbers come in during the general.
With the demographic changes in America, the GOP isn't going to be viable in national elections for much longer.
>>68892354
>This dude is always wrong.
Nate Silver is rarely wrong.
He was very accurate during every election cycle since 2008, and he is the most accurate forecaster for professional basketball.
>>68893661
>Do yall not look this stuff up?
Do you not look it up? PA hasn't gone red since 1988 and it isn't going red in 2016.
>>68893233
no, no its not
>>68893661
A swing state implies it actually changes side regularly, it's just a close state
Tim Hortons has done it again guys! Make sure to thumbs down!!!!!!!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4hnQs0w_LU
>>68888159
Nate Silver is literally the biggest Trump hater.
Look at all the articles hes written.
Obvious shill
>>68893689
Georgia and North Carolina are both starting to tilt more left as their economies modernize and since Trump is so intensely disliked by minorities it puts both in play for the Democrats.
>>68892109
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvyRIgPImOY
>You're absolutely right. Trump turns this from a possible-GOP-win to a guaranteed Democratic landslide victory.
>possible-GOP-win
>win with Yeb!/Cruz/Rubio
Do you really think that Hillary, crippled by disaffected Bernie voters and decades of scandals and contradictory statements/voting patterns is going to bring the heat in an election year when ISIS is bombing shit every other week? C'mon. She's a paper tiger.
>>68888159
>nevada as democrat
>after the nevada caucus has already taken place
>where Trump won with 35,000 votes
>hillary and bernie combined only had 12,000
how do you get so fucking stupid
>>68890407
You realize that GA has the highest black population of any state in the US and still didn't go blue in either '08 or '12, right?
>>68894109
Against Trump? Yeah she's definitely going to win, no question.
All GEnwill be inaccurate at this point. Only take voters registered to party into consideration. No one will come out to vote for the Shill
>Can confirm registered Dem for Trump
>>68894279
If ISIS keeps bombing Europe he's in for sure, no one wants a useless bitch who fucked up Benghazi when shit like that is going on
>>68893693
Well he's "rarely wrong" as long as you don't pay attention to him past 2012.
>>68894153
Primary turnout is historically a very poor indicator of general election turnout.
>>68894434
>If ISIS keeps bombing Europe he's in for sure
Strongly disagree. Trump has no foreign policy chops, and Clinton is known to be a real war hawk.
>>68894153
The biggest driver of nomination turnout is the intensity of the competition and the Republicans very clearly have the more competitive election going on.
>>68894226
It doesn't change how Georgia has been trending.
>>68894585
He doesn't need chops though, his "stop all Muslim immigration" shit is perfect for the average nationalistic American and perfectly reflects their world view
>>68894573
any way you slice it, trump had 35,000 votes while the entire democrat vote was only 12,000. Both cruz and rubio also had more than 12,000 here.
Nevada is straight up republican this election cycle.
>>68894745
That's not good enough. The only people who would be impressed by that are the ones who are already supporting him.
>>68893739
That doesn't mean shit when during the last election, our Commander in Chief with overwhelmingly positive approval ratings almost lost to a dipshit scumbag like Romney.
And look at what happens in other branches of government. PA House of Rep is overwhelmingly Republican.
Arlan Spector held office as Senator for almost 30 years.
Santorium was fucking elected in PA with his backward views and even managed to win reelection.
You're crazy if you think PA won't easily tip to a candidate who can pull independents.
>>68894811
>It is because I said so
lol, okay, pal. Have fun ignoring reality then.
>>68893689
It will be if it stops being racist and just promotes lower taxes, smaller govt and free enterprise and strong defense. But it brings religious nuts, anti abortionists, racists and women haters. The social assholes. That's it's albatross.
>>68894893
>almost lost to a dipshit scumbag like Romney.
Romney was a MUCH better candidate for the general electorate than Trump could ever be.
>>68894868
The wind is rising mate, people are getting sick of this shit and pussyfooting around the issue with programs to "DE-radicalise" muslim kids that obviously don't work
>>68894950
Don't project your own retardation onto me you gross scummy fagbag subhuma. I stated facts, you're the one ignoring reality.
Google Nevada Caucus you dumb piece of garbage, the results are all there.
>>68895083
>The wind is rising mate
That is just a stupid response and I'm not even going to take it seriously. IF you have nothing worthwhile to add to this discussion, then move along.
>>68895113
And it has already been explained to you that there is no relationship between primary/caucus votes and general election votes. You are choosing to ignore that because it doesn't fit your narrative.
>>68894573
And Trump is unlike any other candidate in modern US political history. Those "models" go out the window with him.
>>68895214
no you dumb nigger, you're confusing the relation between delegates and general election.
Holy fuck if you aren't old enough to post on 4chan.
>>68895160
Far right parties are on the up in Europe, Trump is beating the shit out of evangelical candidates in the Bible belt, what the fuck else do you need? There's a definite shift happening all over the west socially, even if it is just a counter culture at this point
>>68895324
Huey Long, George Wallace, Ross Perot
>>68895353
>you're confusing the relation between delegates and general election.
uhhh... No. No, I am not.
There is NO RELATIONSHIP between votes in primaries/caucuses and general election votes. It has nothing to do with delegates at all, so please stop trying to put words in my mouth.
Maybe you are the one who is not old enough to post on 4chan if you don't understand this simple concept.
>>68893693
They fucked up their prediction of the UK election competely. But that's not his fault since every single poll was shit for that whole election, all of them consistently underpolled tories and overpolled labour.
>>68895356
That's a nice narrative, Anon, but it has nothing to do with the U.S. presidential election in 2016.
>>68895074
Okay Carl
Whatever makes you sleep at night
>>68895478
Tell yourself whatever you need to in order to feel better about the fact Trump will be the next president.
>>68894279
>The democrat that is hated the most by Republicans and inspires a tepid response in her own electorate (at best)
>has a history of getting us into unpopular ME wars and proxy wars
>trying to run on an muh feminism platform while it's an open secret that her husband has a graveyard in his closet regarding his treatment of women
>her ace in the hole was her popular husband but she can't use him too much because he's now politically radioactive and sickly and it'd fuck up her stronk womyn stance
>tries to sound strong but ends up sounding like a cranky old woman hectoring people
>running against a guy who is so far untouchable and has beaten all his opponents all while fighting his own party the entire time.
Hilldog will be a cakewalk compared to the primaries.
>>68895627
Have fun ignoring reality.
>>68895627
Unless doj indicts Hillary, she's the next president. Numbers.
>>68888511
>>68895575
I'm pretty sure it does, just like when a coon might be president it's going to be different from the usual fair. We have a woman vs an American who appeals to disenfranchised every men, could get interesting
>>68895694
>untouchable in the GOP primary
Anon, you don't seem to realize that the GOP primary and the general election are two very different beasts.
No matter, you're welcome to believe what you want.
>>68888159
no surprise here
I can kinda sort see why someone would be a democrat. It's stupid, but I can kind of see the rational for it even if it's a naive rational. What I don't get though is why the best the dems can bring is Hillary Clinton. She is a criminal, a liar, and everything about her demeanor is just so fucking dishonest. That phony smile and laugh. Fucking Christ. I really don't understand it. How can people look at Clinton and her hear speak for more than a minute and come away thinking that she belongs in the white house?
>>68888159
>this is the seven hundredth time we've created this thread
>we have become very efficient at it.
>>68895793
You're right. It's going to be different because we will be elected a female President. It has nothing to do with whatever narrative you have about far-right groups in Europe.
>>68895757
Feels >numbers bro
Is it your first day here?
>>68895324
>muh feels!
>>68888159
>NC GA Fl Ohio AZ NM NV Il all blue
what is this faggot smoking
>>68894893
>Santorum
>backward
u wot m8
>>68895982
We'll see anon
>>68888159
>Silver has described himself as "half-Jewish"
when /pol/ is right, /pol/ is right
he is just another jewish talking head trying to push his own kike agenda
>>68895811
The huge number of other successful companies and millions upon millions of dollars and jobs created?
>>68895809
>he ignored all my points about Hilldog's chances
Yeah, I realize that the primaries and the general are very different, but Trump has 8 months to pivot and bring in independents. Hillary is fixed in terms of her record and positions. My point is that they threw everything and the kitchen sink at him in the primaries and he just kept rising. Racist/Sexist/Hitler/Failure/Drumpf(?) none of it dented him in the least. If his own party can't stop him, how will the Democrats, especially when they are the incumbent party and Hillary doesn't have the charisma of an Obama?
>>68888159
>GA
>AZ
>Blue
>>68888159
>Nate """Silver"""
Take a hike, kike.
>>68888159
>using a proxy
When will AUS shitposters learn
>>68888511
Literally Increasingly Nervous Man.
He just needs to go back to baseball statistics. He got lucky with Obama in 2008, that's it.
>>68896732
He predicted 2012 perfectly too
>>68888296
>>68888399
>https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/713036414745575424/photo/1
he was right on 48/50 for 2008 and 50/50 in 2012 for the general election.... after the primaries his #s will probably be close. He's been wrong for a few primary states too this election cycle.
>>68895694
>Trump is actively opposed by the majority of GOP officials and partisan voters
>Has a history of doing nothing ever except being on tv and making an ass out of himself and "fabolous deals"
>Openly treats women like shit and his own wife accused him of rape
> His ace in whole is that "he can't be bought" but is secretly not rich enough to fund general campaign
>Tries to sound like he knows what he's talking about but ends up sounding like a retard
> Running against a machine that has destroyed their political enemies over the last 25 years
>>68892497
only way UT would go blue is MAYBE if it was Trump vs Bernie
>live with Utards
>>68896841
Nothing but Rato lies. Even the Clinton machine won't stump the Trump.
>>68893689
>With the demographic changes in America, the GOP isn't going to be viable in national elections for much longer.
i wonder how long the remaining whites will last serving as taxpayer slaves for their hispanic and black overlords. can you imagine a white minority country where whites pay for everything yet they have no more electoral power? the constitution doesn't even mean anything to most non-whites.
>>68896485
>Racist/Sexist/Hitler
This is why he's popular.
This is what his base (/pol/ and rednecks) like about his platform. His base exists within the Republican party.
>>68896789
It doesn't take a genius to understand that the first black man will be elected president and later be reelected.
>>68888159
DELETE THIS
>>68897294
>His base exists within the Republican party.
And only in the GOP. Normal voters hate his fucking guts.
>>68888511
>its all about data, unless i dont like the person
>>68897297
Predicting every state perfectly is a hard task though. Romney was just shit and ended up looking dumb when he shat on Obamacare despite it being based on his own Romneycare thing in MA.
>>68888511
/thread
this goy has 0 credibility left
Trump has ruined him forever
>>68888159
How many times has Nate been right this election cycle?
Oh, that's right, zero times, not a single fucking time has he been right. I almost feel bad for him, but then I remember he brings it on himself by continuing to do this shit.
>>68893676
>30 posts in 1 thread
holy shit
>>68897449
nates problem is hes a biased hack
he only likes pro-democrat data
his bias has ruined his career
Trump was leading polls for 5-6 months and he still just said "nah"
>>68892053
Live in PA (Lancater), can confirm. I am also one of those that switched to Republican, just so I can vote for Trump in primary.
>>68897750
>he only likes pro-democrat data
Trump helps the democrats though. Enjoy Shillary and a democrat senate. Might even cause the house to flip too.
>>68896841
>>GOP officials and partisan voters
And?
>>Has a history of doing nothing ever except being on tv and making an ass out of himself and "fabolous deals"
Running against a woman with a lifetime of flipflopping and saying/doing whatever to get elected, while not having a record and being a breath of fresh air.
>>Openly treats women like shit and his own wife accused him of rape
Against the PC shit that everyone but cat ladies secretly hates. Ivana retracted it.
>> His ace in hole is that "he can't be bought" but is secretly not rich enough to fund general campaign
Who is rich enough to do that? Nobody. Still better than Hillary $350k per speech to GS Clinton
>>Tries to sound like he knows what he's talking about but ends up sounding like a retard
vs sounds like she's informed but gets us into shitty sandnigger conflicts constantly? I'll take the guy who sounds dumb but doesn't want to start yet another war for ZOG.
>> Running against a machine that has destroyed their political enemies over the last 25 years
The same machine that got rekt by a 1 term nigger senator?
>>68897841
im not sure what your post has to do with my post muhammad
>>68893564
>>68893676
Thanks Nate and friend! (1) (30)
>>68898021
He wasn't being pro democrat by thinking Trump's campaign would implode quickly because Trump helps the democrats win big.
>>68897294
>>68897358
>He can't possibly pivot by November guys!
You guys do realize that she is just about as unpopular with Republicans and Trump hasn't even started on her yet?
>>68888159
>Trump
>losing Florida, Georgia, North Carolina
>>68888159
He was a loser broke nobody who gained prominence when he started doing statistics on political elections. He got maybe 3 major elections right, and somehow became an oracle. That's how he makes his payrole. He is essentially just another pollster for the Democrats. His 15 minutes of fame is up and he'll end up like Dick Morris or Karl Rove, retired and out of a job.
>>68891721
I like the cut of your jib anon
>>68892200
It was 52-48 last election %-wise. Come the fuck on, a 3 pt swing is easily feasible.
>>68898263
>pivot
The Dem machine will have primary season video quoting all over the airwaves
>>68897358
>Normal voters hate his fucking guts.
"Normal" voters hate PC culture more than they hate Trump. Any white or legal hispanic male over age 35 is voting Trump.
>>68898544
>Any white or legal hispanic male over age 35 is voting Trump
delusional
>>68897358
>Normal voters
Define this normal for me anon, because I'm pretty sure the average Joe is not pro Hillary, unless your country is that far cucked
>>68898485
The same DNC that's fucking broke?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/13/dnc-craves-tax-dollars-for-convention/?page=all
By pivot I mean, he's going to add positions rather than change what he has already said. Look at what he's said about planned parenthood.
>>68898702
>>68898816
Nope, the jew superPACs will though, since your dumbfuck right wingers caused Citizens United
>corporations
>people
>unlimited political donations are freedom of speech
Realistically, dems are gonna get Nevada and Pennsylvania. They aren't getting Georia and probably not North Carolina either. They're probably getting Colorado and Wisconsin meaning if they lose Florida and Ohio all they need is New Hampshire or Virginia.
If they get Florida OR Ohio the election is over. And both of those states have been leaning blue for the last couple of cycles.
Hillary is definitely the favorite. I am 100% Trump and I am fine admitting it. Demographics are a bitch and are why this country is in serious decline. The same women and minority voters that are voting Hilarity are also destroying the country.
There are a few things to consider though. Terrorism. It isn't like the likelyhood of a huge terror attack is going down... If anything it is increasing - significantly. If a major, and I mean major, 9/11 size incident happens it could dramatically change the shape of the election. I also truly believe that new voters will be added to the process that haven't been in play over the last decade. Most of these will be Trump voters in my opinion.
>>68888159
>>68888159
>CO AZ GA NC VA IL FL IA OH blue
Jesus christ.
>>68897989
> Dems already begin with an electoral advantage so R's need to be highly unified and organized in order to get out the vote.
> Trump's flip-flopped on everything (was an Obama loving liberal 8 years ago or did you forget)
> A better businessman, like Bloomberg, would be rich enough to do that. He'll have to flip flop on that, become a shill, and still get out fundraised 10-1. Hillary getting 350K for one speech actually sounds like she made a "great deal"
>Trump says he wants to send over 30k troops to fight ISIS and promises his undying support for the Jew lobby
>That same guy who tricked your boy Donald to the correspondents dinner and clowned on him for hours as he was killing Osama bin Ladin... lol yeah that guy faggot.
>>68888159
He's making this prediction based on the polls of the general which have Trump trailing Shillary. General election polls are notoriously inaccurate, especially this early. This guy is a leftist hack who has been lucky in his predictions a few times.
>>68898702
36 y/o white male in Ohio here
Happily voting Clinton
>>68899229
>Hillary getting 350K for one speech actually sounds like she made a "great deal"
for herself. not for her country. shillary shills are fucking disgusting. hang yourself asap.
>>68899332
YOU'RE A FUCKING WHITE MALE!
>>68890407
It's true
> "ayy her husband took care of us doe"
>>68899332
I hope you don't work in the coal industry. Or the tech industry. Or any job making over 50k, because if Hillary wins you will be replaced.
>>68899294
>dismissing
>incorrectly representing the model, which weighs state polls and prior year election trends, by state much higher than nationwide GE polls
Now tell me about how your lie is really correct and my facts are way off
>>68899595
>extraordinary claims
>>68899727
> voting for a candidate
> Don't even know what she says
The jokes on you. If you are a white male and she wins, you are fucked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksIXqxpQNt0
>>68899480
Oh like Trump makes great deals for "the country" all the time, you gullible faggot.
>Outsources to China
>Hires illegal immigrants over Americans
>Runs businesses (or a whole city) into the ground and leaves partners and taxpayers responsible
>>68888159
It's obvious Hilary is going to win; people who legit think Trump is going to win are naive.
>>68900037
proof?
>>68900000
Nice digits, sir
>>68899229
>R's not being highly unified and organized as they always are instead of infighting like dems.
>Flipflopping in statements as a businessman are the same thing as changing your voting record as a career politician
>Lol, thinking Hillary will go anywhere near the speech issue when the voters in her party are this close to calling for bankers to be lynched in the streets.
>30k troops. No, he said that's what he was told was needed, not necessarily what he will do.
>"The Clinton machine" rekt by a 1 term nigger senator with no record and very little experience but lots of media exposure. Sound familiar?
>>68899332
But who is your wife's son voting for?
>>68900000
Quints! Nice.
>>68900037
I want to see the source that verifies that Trump has run a whole city into the ground.
While you are looking up that source, you should read up on what a subcontractor is in the construction industry.
>>68888511
I was wondering how quickly someone would post that picture
OP BTFO
>>68893693
>Every election cycle since 2008
So he was right twice, and when a nigger was running.
This isn't some liberal fucking election
>>68900123
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-admits-gear-made-china-labels/story?id=13472355
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/donald-trump-bankruptcy-laws-213190
http://law.justia.com/cases/federal/district-courts/FSupp/774/802/1425921/
>>68899116
florida was extremely close to going red vs romney (less than 1%). ohio was solid blue under obama twice, so that would be the hardest state for trump to win. which is why i think kasich will be VP.
>>68900913
not proof enough, try again
>>68900913
>Just proving Trump right that removing business in America is cheaper
>>68901166
OK.. continue to believe that Donald Trump gives a fuck about anything besides himself.
>>68901585
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/431908/donald-trump-immigration-hypocrite-who-ignores-american-workers
Or that he wants labor that is easier to exploit based on immigration status.
>>68902158
>Implying that Donald Trump himself does all the interviews and hiring
>>68900524
>This isn't some liberal fucking election
First woman in the white house will be as big a deal to some people. Ev
>>68902338
Yeah but you know the difference?
There wasn't an opposition to Obongo.
>>68902322
If he's so great at running things he should know what the fuck is going on.
And he practically lives there, he doesn't realize all his staff are gyspies instead of Americans?
Keep thinking Donald Trump gives a fuck about America, it's really adorable.
>he assumes that the media have any idea what they're talking about in regards to the Trumpening
ya fucked up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvyRIgPImOY
Guys this feels like 12 when we all made fun of silver and then romney got BTFO
>>68903076
Romney fucked his own campaign
>>68902448
If Trump is the candidate he will drive some moderate republicans to vote for Hillary, and I doubt many Berniebots will vote for Trump.
The only way he wins is if they all don't vote and I think Trump incites anger more than apathy and that will motivate them to vote against him.
>>68903408
>Assumes Trump will lose support
>Assumes he wont gain anymore
m-muh ceiling
>>68888159
Trump wil win AZ, CO, OH, GA, FL, NC, VA, NH, ME. Democrats are not actually going to rally behind Hillary to stop Trump, they'll just stay home.
>>68903507
There is a ceiling. He won't get 100% of the vote. It's just a question of whether it is high enough to win.
>>68903562
delusional.
>>68903804
>There is a ceiling. He won't get 100% of the vote
kek
It'll get high enough. Trumps support has only grown since he announced his running
>>68903827
How? Only Ohio and Colorado are arguable there.
>>68888159
>nate silver
topkek
>>68893233
>CA red
I dream of the day
>>68903925
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/03/21/gop-heading-disaster-trump-unpopular-nominee.html
>>68903966
>NH and ME aren't arguable
Opinion discarded.
>>68893217
shit looks worse for you
>>68904230
Maine and New Hampshire love Trump, though. There's no minorities there who will be scared into voting for Hillary, and whites there don't like her that much.
>>68904407
Trump didn't even win Maine.
>>68904407
>Maine and New Hampshire love Trump, though
Very very debatable. You are delusional as fuck if you think it's "not arguable" that they go red, seriously how fucking out of touch can you bet
get the fuck out of my sight
>>68903925
Unless he changes his rhetoric completely for the general and gets moderates to think the primary Trump was just to appease the Republican base, and at the same time gets his core supporters to believe that the new Trump is just to get elected in the general, I doubt he will win. It will be an impressive trick if he can pull it off but I doubt it.
>>68904188
Are you able to cite the information posted in that article?
Such as:
Who voted?
Which unfavorable chart are they going by? (Pic related)
If his unfavorability is so damn high, why is he doing so damned well?
>>68892497
>New York Red
>Texas Blue
Is this the fucking bizarro map?
>>68904554
Have you seen the rest of the GOP field? It's a disaster.
>>68905333
I realize that.
I realize that the people who don't have the countries best interests in heart and just their own don't want to see Donald J. Trump elected.
But just because the GOP doesn't like him doesn't mean that he's a bad candidate.
I love fivethirtyeight's weighted polls and forecasts, but their blogs are bullshit, and if you asked Nate right now if his projections for the general mean anything other than trying to get clicks, he'd say no
85% of youth vote in democrats is for Bernie.. that indicates
Do you really think they'll just fall in line and vote for Clinton when they are THAT against her?
>>68896808
How can you be wrong on any state in the 2008 campaign??????????? The economy crashed, every poll had Obama winning by a mile, 8 years of republican control and this faggot played it safe and gave VA, and NC to McCain
>>68904554
If 39% wouldn't support Trump, 81% would
>>68905440
Trump is actually a great candidate because he can bring over Democrats by virtue of not being anti-White.
>>68905865
>>68904554
61% sorry
>>68888159
>AZ
>Blue
Lol
>>68905948
I know, and the best part is that this is a poll that's a month old.
pic related for older one
As I stated before, his support is only growing, unlike other candidates.
>>68888511
>The Pope is Way More Popular than Donald Trump
>>68905892
In what parallel, delusion hellscape does your mind occupy.
... Oh, yeah. /pol/.
>>68892053
I wouldn't have thought this months ago, but damn I go to Pedo State and even the majority of people here (a fucking average public college) support Trump. I'm pretty confident he can win
>>68888159
Honestly, I would be surprised if Trump won Georgia, NC, or Virginia.
>>68893471
100% predictive success
lmao you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about
"A broken clock has 100% predictive success twice a day"
>>68888511
Literally the epitome of the Increasingly Nervous Man.
>>68906265
The only people voting for Hillary in the fall will be minorities who are terrified of Republicans and old, rich liberals. Younger people will just stay home or vote for Trump. Hillary is not popular among Whites under 45 unless they are wealthy.
>>68888511
is nate silver actually jeb bush or something?
>>68906336
For NC I want to think Trump would win with their new law that passed but at the same time I'm not sure what the majority is between LGBT loving Dems and based GOP
>>68906181
kek
>>68891129
but milo loves trump
>>68906515
If NC Democrats can motivate black people and independents to vote, then it may swing democrat.
