Hello, /pol/. I came here today to share my political knowledge with you. I am an expert on electoral college maps and have a PHD in political science. I've successfully predicted the outcomes of the last 3 presidential elections.
Here is my forecast: Hillary will win the 2016 election. The picture shows to whom each state will allocate its electoral votes to. Ask me anything.
>>68786217
and an IQ of 156 and from 20 years in the future.
>>68786217
shoo shoo shill you posted this same shit yesterday.
ROLL YE CUNTS
don't forget to sage
>>68786301
I am not exaggerating the truth.
>>68786331
Not true.
>>68786448
Please keep everything relevant.
>>68786217
bump
Trump will win New York though
>>68786217
Honestly, this is why we need a Kasich/Webb ticket.
>>68787957
New York won't even be close. It is solid blue.
>>68786217
ohio
Penn
NY
virginia
Iowa
All have potential to go red
420 / 10
>>68788143
That ticket would certainly have a better chance at defeating Hillary.
>>68788278
Are you serious? Trump being in the race definitely makes New York purple
>>68788289
I don't get why you believe NY could swing. It is polling solidly for Hillary. The others you've mentioned are leaning Democratic.
>>68788447
That's what people said about Mitt Romney for Massachusetts. Liberals don't agree with Trump's intolerant rhetoric. The polls show Hillary easily defeating Trump in NY.
>>68788447
>>68788289
NY will stay blue because of the goddamn NYC voting 80%+ democrat even if the rest of the state is red
>>68788621
>Trump's intolerant rhetoric
>Le unbiased political science man
>Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact
>>68788660
That's true. Its past voting history and demographics manifest its liberalness.
>>68788289
The only way PA goes red is with Kasich/Webb. Same with Virginia and Iowa. NY won't go red.
Mark my words, Trump will win Illinois.
>>68786448
Rolls royce
>>68789116
Fucking Chicago will keep it blue, sadly
>>68786217
>3 elections
Not impressed. This Political Science professor created a statistical model that has correctly predicted every election outcome since 1912 and he says Trump has a 97-99% chance of winning.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/
>>68789116
Not a chance.
>>68786217
>hillary will win the 2016 election
you wasted your money getting that PhD, everybody can see she is going to win
>>68786217
>phd in political 'science'
Wew lad
>>68786217
PHD? What a sad fat reddit loser are you!
More like DhP.......Doctor of hot Pocketery.
Fuck off low brow pretender.
>>68786217
Does your PHD model include Hillary being thrown into prison?
>>68789304
You need to start thinking objectively. Trump doesn't have a viable chance of winning the election.
Stop listening to one little loon you hear of on the Internet. You listen to this man, while thousands of other political scientists say otherwise.
If you are so certain Trump will win, you can gamble money on prediction websites. If You were to put 1000 dollars on Trump at the moment, and he ends up winning, you'd have around 2000 dollars.
>>68789531
It's PhD dickgobbler.
>>68789304
>has correctly predicted every election
No it hasn't, you fucking moron. He used data from past elections to create the model. This dude isn't a hundred years old.
For fuck's sake why does everyone turn into a moron when it comes to statistics?
>>68789426
Predicting elections is just a hobby of mine.
>>68789709
Because most people on this site are mentally enslaved morons who regurgitate whatever the mainstream media tells them to.
>>68786448
keep rolling rolling rolling rolling rolling rolling rolling rolling rolling ahh
I think Ohio (and Pennsylvania) have a very good chance of swinging red this year because Trump is appealing directly to the disenfranchised working class of these states.
For the same reason Michigan has a 'chance' of swinging as well.
Virginia is interesting because of its large black population I could see Trump doing well there (he is polling rather well for a Republican candidate among Black voters) so it is possible for the state to swing red.
Nevada and New Hampshire are both "battleground" states that I think will go blue in 2016 and Colorado is 50-50 right now.
>>68789789
...aside from bankrupting All-You-Can-Eat buffet restaurants.
You=Fat.
You=Ugly.
You=Bespectacled.
You=Worth less than worthless.
>>68786448
Please no India
>>68787957
And def pa
this is the only realistic way for trump to win, which i based on the results from 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012. it will be VERY hard for trump to win. but it is certainly possible.
must win states: ohio, florida, virginia, north carolina, colorado (only if nevada stays blue, which it most likely will).
>>68789709
Who the fuck said he was 100 years old? The guy applied his statistical model to every election since 1914 and it was able to accurately predict the outcome of all of them except one. Stupid fucking leaf.
>>68789969
Trump will perform terribly. Listen to what he is saying about women, hispanics, and just about everyone who disagrees with him.
He is too immature, and voters will realize that he is not presidential material.
>>68786448
roll4124rq
>>68790094
Kasich as VP could potentially swing Ohio to the right, but Kasich has repeatedly said that he would not consider being a VP for Trump.
>>68790230
That's what they said going into the primaries, it hasn't held any water.
He's been slowly shifting his tone as the nomination draws closer and aside from that I think you are putting too much stock into people clutching their pearls at Trump's mean words.
>>68790389
Your mirrors all loathe you.
>>68786217
Fucking awesome. Like it's not clear that only Hillary can make it. You have a nutjob and a real guy. Since the establishment determines the next emperor you don't actually have to be an expert on electoral college maps to know the outcome.
>>68786448
Sage for being an Aussie
>>68789602
>Trump doesn't have a viable chance of winning the election.
This isn't true at all. Trump is mobilizing the white working class vote like no one else has since Ronald Reagan. Trump only needs to increase white turnout by 4% and white support for the republican ticket by 4% compared to 2012 and he's almost guaranteed to win. Even in the face of historical Latino turnout and historical Latino support for the democrat ticket, this still holds true.
>>68790494
Trump's immigration plan is what got him where he is today.
The problem is that illegal immigration is what Republicans care so much about, not the overall US voting electorate.
>>68786217
I have a hard time believing Michigan will stay blue this year
>>68790657
The polls say otherwise. Trump is actually performing worse among whites than both Kasich and Cruz.
Educated whites are especially turned off by his childish behavior. Just look at his Twitter posts.
>>68790830
That is because you are uneducated.
>>68790094
flip colorado and iowa and your on the money.
>>68790722
I'm sure many Americans will start changing their tune as more terror attacks explode across western Europe.
If the trend continues National Security (and by extension Immigration) will become public interest number one.
>>68786448
Gimme that sweet 99 bae
>>68790230
demographics are not that simple. most hispanics live in border states such as california which are already guaranteed to go democrat anyway, so their vote is irrelevant. the key to victory is the white working class, most of which live in crucial swing states. this is exactly the group trump has been pandering to. think of states such as ohio and pennsylvania where millions of working class whites live. the hispanic and black vote mean little there. if trump can rally the white voters behind him (democrats, independants) then he will be able to win all the crucial swing states and secure the presidency.
The experts and election predictions have all been wrong this cycle. Every single time. What makes you think you're experience is any better than everyone else?
>>68786217
lmfao nice normal tabs, queer.
>>68786217
Once the debates start Hillary will get blown the fuck out. Trump knows hes loud and brash. He's gotten this far by being intelligent. Remember when he first announced his run? (He'll be gone within three weeks, r-right?) He was given a snowballs chance in hell for making it this far but yet somehow he did. He knows the landscape of the political voter is changing and he's going to do everything in his power to win voters, including changing his demeanor. Its only March you cucks, nothing is set in stone and crazier shit has happened in this country.
>>68791400
Because I am one of the few pundits who predicted that Trump would be the GOP nominee
>>68786448
12Rolling34
>>68792162
Wow, some one as the last time this was posted.
>>68791878
He's already damaged himself too much to appeal to the GOP base. Independents are turned off by his obnoxious rhetoric. He's said so many derogatory statements about unattractive women. This won't turn out well for him later on.
Just wait until more campaign ads come out. You will see what I mean.
>>68786448
MERICA
>>68792398
>obnoxious rhetoric
Like I said, hopefully he'll realize that he needs to tone it down in order to gain votes. Plus with the worsening of the refuge crisis in Europe, I wouldn't be surprised if more people start shifting away from progressive ideologies.
>>68792398
He performs better than Hillary in virtually every poll I've seen with "Independents".
>>68793110
Shut your lying mouth. The feelings that your brain emits won't change the truth.
>>68793300
Really? Who were these polls conducted by?
>>68786448
rolling in 3... 2... 1..
>>68786217
What's your opinion on this image. Don't look at the map, look at the demographic data.
>>68793783
Look everybody! A massive cuck!
>>68793844
The Reuters rolling poll.
The most recent Monmouth University poll (http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/7714a05b-515f-4ad3-bdaa-e72a6e5f8e61.pdf)
The most recent Bloomberg and FOX polls don't show Independent support (as far as I can tell).
>>68794213
>64% white vote
Very unlikely, although I do see him winning around 10 percent of the African American vote.
Mitt Romney won 59% of the white vote in 2012. Trump would be lucky to get a number higher than this.
>>68794461
You see, there are more Democrats than Republican. A Republican must win about 60% of the independent vote to win the general election. In other words, the GOP is a dying party.
>>68786448
shit thread, the reason why I'm voting Trump is so you political science majors can't fucking predict my actions like I am a sheep of some sort
>>68786217
>>68786448
Rollin 4 Africa
>>68794766
I understand that. Which is why I'm very anti-Cruz.
A "True Conservative" candidate (a la Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee) would never win a general election when more people identify as liberal leaning.
>>68786217
Diploma or GTFO
>>68794538
>Trump would be lucky to get a number higher than this
Virtually everyone agrees that Romney only won 59% of the white vote because millions of white people simply didn't vote in the 2012 election. It had nothing to do with the democrats picking up more whites. Had the same number of whites showed up to vote in 2012 as they did in 2008, Romney would have won.
Trump is generating far more excitement and voter turnout than Romney ever did in the primaries, especially among whites. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that Trump can increase white turnout in the general
>>68794804
Congratulations. You actually got me to chuckle.
Although, I would like you to know that I am not biased towards any political candidate. I simply follow the evidence.
>>68790530
yep
>>68786217
There is NO WAY Clinton is losing Florida.
>>68790094
Jesus Christ this map just shows that Republicans won't win back the white house for 20 + years
>>68795233
I see Trump winning Florida. Obama won it by just over 1 percentage point. Minorities really loved him, but the same can't be said about Clinton. The enthusiasm just isn't there. Trump is polling better among African Americans, and Cubans, to some extent, agree with his plan to deport illegals. They tend to despise Mexicans.
>>68786448
rOLLLLLLIN
>>68794213
Bizarre wishful thinking
>>68786448
ROLLAN.
>>68795434
Don't expect it to shift to the right in 20 years. As the demographics of the USA changes, it will just continue to become more liberal and vote Democratic.
>>68786448
Roller
>>68795589
I know it will. But the idea is that perhaps after this disaster the Republicans could rebrand over the next 20 years.
>>68790094
Idk in NV more people voted for Ben Carson than people voted on the Democrat side when the caucuses were here. It has a chance to turn red but it's up in the air.
>>68786448
Reroll because j don't want to be aborted
>>68795589
I also think you are being wildly conservative in your estimation. I don't think Trump has a chance in hell of doing as well as you have him doing.
>>68795543
In what way?
>>68795470
This is just wrong. Trump right now has a more than 70 percent unfavorable rating among women. He is going to be slaughtered in any but the most red of states.
HE'S EVEN PUTTING UTAH AND ARIZONA INTO PLAY! UNHEARD OF AND UNIMAGINABLE WITH ANYONE BUT TRUMP ON THE R TICKET!
>>68795867
Your turnout points are grounded in nothing but the wishful thinking that everyone but white people will stay home, and whites uniformly love trump and loathe clinton. Not True!
>>68786448
Pls not uganda... pls not uganda
>>68795912
It's not wrong. It's just where the evidence leads to. I look at past voting history, demographics, and polls when I make my forecasts
These preliminary polls are highly inaccurate. If you paid attention to the 2012 election, you will know what I mean.
>>68796055
Woo hoo~ I'll have a fucking leaf, please
>>68796130
how would a major ISIS attack change that if it where to happen november first for example?
>>68786448
rollin give me Russia
>>68795912
Obama almost won Arizona in 2008
>>68796130
Of course I did, you are full of shit right now. What polling are you paying attention to? What demographic changes? What voting history? Explain your methods or get the fuck out with your shit.
Also, as someone with a PhD: not the most impressive thing in the world.
>>68795434
>>68795589
The demographic change is entirely engineered by government policy and is in no way a 100% certainty. If the Republicans do win this election, particularly if it's Trump or maybe even Cruz, it's likely that the Republicans will work to change the current immigration policy to 1. drastically reduce the number of immigrants we admit and 2. change the requirements for immigration so that education and skill level is a primary consideration (this would likely increase the number of immigrants who would be willing to vote republican) rather than simply whether or not you currently have a family member residing here (this is what the current immigration policy considers and it is one that heavily favors uneducated third worlders who vote overwhelmingly for the democrats)
>>68786217
Hillary won't win a single state on the Atlantic coast.
>>68796335
Yes, and Clinton will win in 2016. But Arizona has still been a solidly red state--especially with Clinton! Too bad the republicans refuse to nominate an electable candidate. It's crazy what these people are doing. Fucking Trump! What a joke! A literal meme candidate who has been a symbol of greed and stupidity for 30+ years! They will get creamed by 10-15 points in the general.
>>68796417
Yeah, I understand you want to keep this a white majority country but it won't happen and it's a lost game. Sorry!
>>68786217
As is, there's no way Trump could defeat Clinton. Everybody knowledgeable about politics and electoral history knows this, even the conservatives. Thanks for coming and posting though, I like to see the denial and tears of these faggots.
The debates will be humiliating for Trump. I mean, the white trash that dominates the Trump camp will claim he's won the debates because he yelled and insulted more, but fortunately white trash is an ever-shrinking minority. Feels good man.
>the GOP won't be in the white house another 8 years. feels fucking great man.
>>68796315
Some horrifying event like that could shift the election. In this case, it world shift it towards the anti-terrorist/Muslim extremist party.
Remember the 2012 election? Hurricane Sandy helped Obama because it made him appear more presidential. Bill Clinton actually stated that he thinks Romney lost the election because of the hurricane.
>>68786448
Please Norway
>>68796371
Take a deep breath. You are tense.
The emotions which control your mind will not change the truth.
I now have both liberals and conservative attacking me.
Like I said before, I studied the last 3 presidential elections and predicted the outcome accurately.
If you really need a thorough explanation of what 'demographic' and 'voting history' means, you are much too young to be on this site.
Get back to the video games, lad.
>>68796019
Either you didn't read the data correctly or you're actually a fucking retard
>white turnout
I increased by only 4 percentage points from 2012 which is entirely possible seeing as how whites had fairly low turnout in that electoin compared to other elections and Trump is mobilizing white working class voters
>black turnout
It's extremely unlikely that black will come out in the historic numbers they did for Obama. Historically they lag behind white turnout by 6-8 percentage points so 60% turnout is entirely possible as well
>Latino turnout
A turnout of 70% would be historically high for Latinos you fucking moron
>Asian turnout
Pretty irrelevant since they constitute such a small part of the electorate and I didn't change it at all from 2012
>>68797120
your bullshit condescension doesnt change the fact that you can't just say "history" "demographics" without explaining what history and what demographic changes you are talking about you fucking moron!
>>68786448
Successful derail is successful.
Rollin
>>68786217
>PHD in political science
As a political science major myself, I think this invalidates your opinion, as well as my opinion on the invalidation of your opinion. People who major in political science aren't smart people in the first place and anything they say should be taken with a very large grain of salt.
>>68786217
FUCK YOU, DIE SLOW MOTHER FUCKER!!! THE GOD EMPORER TRUMP WILL REIGN SUPREME!!!
>>68797151
the percentage you have whites going republican is insane! your turnout is less insane, but quite implausible! anywhere but pol you would be laughed out of the fucking building! your latino turnout is ridic high!
>>68797388
*sigh* You are clearly too stupid to comprehend simple concepts. I've already explained my methods. I am not going to write you a 1000 word essay about the changing demographics in each state, the polls which show who each of the demographics support, or the elections histories of each state, especially not to some 16-year-old.
Just because you know so little about elections, doesn't make your assertions correct. Throwing ad hominems around won't win you an argument, silly child.
I'd suggest that you get back to school (pay attention) and finish puberty while your at it. Your hormones are clearly raging and this could cause an acne breakout.
>>68786448
R O L L I N G
>>68798159
>political science degree
How does it feel to be a worthless snake?
>>68797388
I gave you the formula. What you need to do is research to see if what I have stated is authentic. People won't spoon-feed you in life.
>>68797711
>the percentage you have whites going republican is insane
This is also only an increase of 4 percentage points compared to 2012 and is also entirely possible given that Trump polls more favorably among whites than Clinton does, Trump polls more favorably among independents than Clinton does, and polls suggest that a fairly significant number of white working class democrats would be willing to vote for Trump were he to win the nomination
>but quite implausible
Just explained how it's entirely plausible
>your latino turnout is ridic high
I agree, I purposefully put it that way as a worst case scenario for Trump to show how strong his potential voting bloc is. A high Latino rate favors the Democrats and we are likely to see a higher Latino turnout rate than we've ever seen.
>>68786448
Rollerino
>>68798239
I make 120k a year. Do you still think I am a snake?
>>68786448
denmark or norway pls
>>68786448
>aborted
fuck that shit, trying again for denmark or norway
>>68786217
iowa and ohio going for hillary, nice meme
>>68798467
Money doesnt mean much to me
>>68788447
>>68787957
>le NY will go red maymay
You people are fucking RETARDED
>>68786217
>PHD
PhD? Dude, youre a faggot. Fuck off.
>>>/r/eddit
>>68798641
>says the NEET living in his mom's basement
>>68786217
>ask me anything
Okay.
Why do you think you're on Reddit?
>>68798776
Yeah, no
>>68786217
If the elections happened tomorrow, you'd probably be correct, but there are 8 months until then, and alot can happen in 8 months.
>>68786448
gogogo
>>68797120
You're right on everything pretty much, but /pol/ will never accept it.
>>68786448
sure, why not
>>68786448
Rolly
>>68797120
>I now have both liberals and conservative attacking me.
>liberals
Why? What you are saying is in their favor.
>>68799580
Thanks for being sane!
>>68799837
Junior was attacking me for saying that Florida will vote Republican.
>>68786448
Roller
>>68796638
>"Whites should just accept their extermination and not fight back at all"
Hello JIDF
>>68786217
Democrats have a massive ingrained advantage in presidential elections. Republicans as an older whiter base has a massive advantage in off-year senate/house elections.
Expect blue president red congress to continue for the foreseeable future.
I voted for trump in the IL primary, and i will vote for him in the general, but the idea that a republican candidate will win the white house is mad. Republicans have to play defense in these.. Having to defend in north carolina. Bad news for Rs. Democrat can pick and choose where he wants to pressure. Any part of the red wing going blue is immediate loss, dems can withstand more.
I think trump will do better than cruz or kasich. Cruz is absolutely crazy and rife with personal flaws, kasich is dry boring romney 2.0, at least he isnt a mormon though.
Trump is objectively the best candidate, but there are just too many mountains to cross on the electoral map. I wish trump would run for senate or governor somewhere. I think he could handily land a seat and become politically relevant. Love his ideas.
>>68798635
Iowa went for obummer twice. Its a quite blue state. Ohio is always close, dems are fully capable of winning it.
>>68800222
>Not being the majority is extermination
lol cute, but wrong.
>>68800759
Every single country that has ever gone from a white majority to a white minority has lead to the genocide and extermination of the whites.
Expect the haitian revolution 2.0 in 20-30 years. Spics and nigs raping and cannibalizing whites in the street, who won't fight back because that is racist.
Non-whites are literally unable to contain their pure hatred of whites. genocide is unavoidable if whites don't fight back now.
>>68786448
seth rollin
>>68786448
idc
>>68786448
R.ollin
>>68790094
I would think all past elections are fucked at this point
Nothing would surprise me this cycle. If Hillary gets indited or there is a major ecinomic downturn, or terrorist attack. Or war breaks out in Europe/middle east (all possible). Trump could easily landslide.
If Hilary implodes in the fall and democrats don't show up to vote traditionally red states could turn just because of the change in turnout
This isn't a run of the mill election, this is a watershed election
>>68786448
68 get
>>68795589
>things continue indefinitely on a linear trajectory
Wew lad
>>68801643
Hillary is not going to be arrested.. She was secretary of state for crying out loud. You think the law is going to pursue anything she's done?
You seem to think we live in a society where justice and truth and facts matter.
>>68801852
I said it's possible and it is
But I wouldn't count on anything this year and if trump continues to be proven right on foreign policy or if the econemy shifts down then trump could win in a landslide
>>68786217
How is she going to win when she's in jail?
>>68802255
Landslide qould be any trump victory. It would turn everything we know on its head.
Hillary being arrested is just not possible, power politics are far more important than the justice system.. Judges are political appointees, and the president has the full power of clemency. The law is political and it will protect one of its own.
>>68801058
Fucking delusional.
>>68786217
This map actually underestimates how badly Trump would lose IMO. Obama won Colorado and Florida in the last two elections and both have a big Hispanic population.
I think that's what would happen if the election was held now. Trump would hold onto the solid red states and nothing else. 332 EV landslide for Clinton.
>>68786448
trips get
>>68786217
>PHD
hahahahaha redit
>>68802883
You couldn't muster any response other than that? Pathetic, you know I'm right.
Besides, minorities are already open about how much they hate whites. BLM protesters say they want to get rid of white people, hispanics say that they want to own the country and get rid of whites. The mud races will always be jealous of their superiors. Reality has already proven me correct. These people are very open and willing to say what they really want to happen to whites.
Maybe you lived in a nice little white suburb all your life and your only exposure to blacks was through the cosby show. Your worldview is utterly false. Blacks HATE whites, hispanics HATE whites. Minorities WILL massacre whites when given the first opportunity.
Florida red?
Would the map look different if Bernie in a miracle won?
>>68803285
No other response is required when some schizo spews his paranoid delusions all over the thread.
>>68803507
Yes. In fact, that's what actually ends up happening.
t. man from future
>>68803507
Even a miracle wouldnt make america feel the bern. Hillary has locked up all of the superdelegates. Its been over for months. Not interesting.
Bernie will not win the primary. Deal with it.
>>68803507
It would look like Reagans map
>>68803607
That would be you, and I appreciate that you admit your comments don't merit a response. You are correct.
To deny anti-white hatred is to deny reality.
>>68803660
>Alan Grayson as VP
Love it.
>>68786448
Please be born in the first world.
I see him being able to pick pocket MUCH more out of the New england area, other then that I would say this is accurate.
Look at voter turn out, spit ball the % of conservatives who won't vote trump and the % of liberals who won't vote Clinton. That's where you will find you're answers IMO
>>68786448
Abort or dubs
>>68786448
pls no third-world shit hole
>>68803858
I live in Florida. Fuck you.
>>68786448
Rolling
>>68786448
RAWLING
>>68786448
Rolling again %
>>68786448
thanks for helping me appreciate how shitty it would be to be born almost anywhere else.
roll
>New York
>going blue
Full retard over here. Actual poly sci major here, don't listen to OP he hasn't a clue what he's talking about.
Trump is fucking NY epitomized you tard.
>>68786448
again
>>68804802
I'm a poli sci major as well, and you need to demand a refund from your university if you think NY is going to go blue.
>>68804876
third time was the charm.
>>68804916
Sorry, if you think NY is going to go RED
NY is blue. Period.
>>68804802
And Hillary was the Governor of NY. Face it, Donald won't win it.
>>68803660
I'm pretty sure Michael "Fuck Guns and Soda n shiet" Bloomberg would hurt the Democratic nominee more than the Republican one.
Where did the NY going red meme come from?
>>68805111
She was a Senator, keep up leaf.
>>68805355
/pol/ is retarded, that's where
>>68804916
You seem to misunderstand the amount of support Trump has in New York.
I'd ask for a full refund from your university.
>>68786217
I actually see Trump winning the Midwestern states and losing Florida, not the other way around. Once he clinches the GOP nomination he will probably try to present himself as politically centrist and focus on getting the white, middle-class, blue collar vote. His attacks on free trade (which the mainstream pro-business GOP considers anathema) will strongly resonate with people who have had to deal with manufacturing job losses and outsourcing for decades.
Florida is a bit of a tossup though. Given the state's larger minority (esp. Hispanic) population I would be disinclined to call it for Trump, even if he is polling slightly better than a typical candidate. But even if you switch those electoral votes around Trump still has a long way to go. It ultimately depends on the strength of his message and how it's received by its intended audience.
>>68789602
>You need to start thinking objectively. Trump doesn't have a viable chance of winning the election.
>Stop listening to one little loon you hear of on the Internet. You listen to this man, while thousands of other political scientists say otherwise.
Because it's perceived as the safe bet. If they predict Hillary wins and Trump wins instead, it'd be a shocking enough upset to everyone that nobody will fault them for getting it wrong. It's outside the realm of political acceptability so most people will accept it as unthinkable; in insurance terms, it'd be like an act of God. On the other hand, if they predict the reverse, they lose every shred of credibility they have when Clinton takes the oath of office.
The same principle applies to other black swan events, like the financial crisis.
>If you are so certain Trump will win, you can gamble money on prediction websites.
It'd probably just be easier to short the market or bet on volatility instead.
>>68805111
Senator, and a worthless one at that. Trump has done more for NYC than shilldawg.
It's unlikely but not implausible
>>68805566
>they're hedging their bets
>they're trying to not look stupid
>they're taking muh safe bet!
How dense can one person be?
Do you even realize the amount of vitriol and hatred in this country after 8 years of Obama? People are sick and tired of politicians and take a look at /pol/ and see the example of the petri dish that shows how people are getting fed up with liberals and SJWs in general.
This election will be HUGE and the democrats aren't as motivated to come out and vote as the Republicans are.
Trump wins in a landslide.
>>68805563
So much support that he's down 20 points to Clinton. It's not going to get within single digits.
>>68786448
Roll for aryan rebirth pls
>>68800490
Why do people like you accept this horseshit so easily?
Look at history. It switches between the two. It always has.
>>68786448
>>68786217
>PhD in Political Science
Kek, great investment buddy.
>>68786450
You got the replies backwards.
>>68786448
come on mateys
>>68788942
Like fuck they will. Kasich is a nobody.
>>68803660
>Kasich as running mate
The future you come from has absolutely nothing to do with out universe.
