Wisconsin - 60% Trump chance of win, 42 delegates
New York - 94% Trump, 95 delegates
Pennsylvania - 87% Trump, 17 delegates
Maryland - 88% Trump, 38 delegates
Rhode Island - 90% Trump, 19 delegates
Delaware - 85% Trump, 16 delegates
If Trump wins all of April, can Cruz seriously still say he should get the nomination?
Source?
>>68547385
Nothing can stump Trump from getting the republican nomination at this point tbqh.
>>68548624
predictit.org - trading market putting your money on the line to trade odds
which of those are winner take all?
im not sure trump can get to 1237 but cruz can't even get close to his numbers
as time goes on, the republicans will get used to the idea of a Trump candidacy, especially as they remember how much they hate Hillary.
>>68549002
Rhode Island is proportional, New York an Conneticut are winner-take-most and all other are winner take all. Trump will easily get to 1000 delegates in April with 600 delegates to go then.
>>68547385
No, but the GOP will find a way to deny him the nomination anyway.
With the help of Fivethirtyeight, they're already interpreting the statistics in a way so that it can suit their agenda. It's incredible how delusional these pundits are.
california, NY, and jersey are in the bag unless something goes horribly wrong. it's those rural states like nebraska that keep me up at night and he needs a lot of those to seal the nomination.
>>68547385
>Pennsylvania = 17 delegates
Wut?
>>68547385
Pa?! 17 delegates?! Why so little?
Is Utah voting for Trump a case of him getting stumped or just Mormons voting for the the religious nut?
>>68551517
71... sorry
>>68551299
After April there is virtually no way for Trump not to get 1237 even losing California.
>>68551299
>not knowing this shit is completely over after April
>>68551647
PA has some bullshit where you only win like half of them in the primary and then the rest are sent to the convention "unbound"
>read: "#AnyoneButTrump"
Also, does anyone know how to sign up for early voting? I'm registered in Delaware but I'll be out of state that week.
>>68551647
It has 71 delegates, not 17
>>68547385
All the evangelical states are over now, Trump is going to wipe the fucking floor with cruz
I just registered to vote for Trump in New York on April 29th.
If there are any other New Yorkers ITT, don't forget to register. The deadline is on the 25th, two days from now. You can do it all online @ https://vote.usa.gov/
>>68552791
April 19th*, sorry
>>68551779
It's exactly the latter. Mormons are very cult-like and REFUSE to vote for anyone that's not a "social conservative" which Rato has been parading himself on being.
>>68551025
You have a good take on our GOP and RNC. They are doing everything they can to keep Trump from getting the nomination...and they aren't done yet.
They make the rules for the convention. They haven't started the rules yet. They are biding their time. They have plenty of time. They will use the primaries, however they played out, and specifically write the rules to lock out Trump.
>>68547385
>Wisconsin - 60%
looks like we know where the next rally's gonna be
>>68551025
>inb4 delegates can vote who they want
WTF is wrong with Pennsylvania. I first I thought it is a typo in Google that only 17 of 71 delegates are voted for a candidate, but it is actually fucking true.
What is wrong with them?
----
Republican primary rules
During the primary, Republicans will elect 54 delegates to their nominating convention in Cleveland, three for each congressional district. The ballot will not explain which candidate the delegates intend to support at the convention, and they are not bound to vote for any of them. The other 17 Pennsylvania GOP delegates will have to support the state’s primary winner through the first ballot only — they consist of the state’s three Republican National Committee members, 10 at-large and four bonus delegates chosen this summer at the state Republican Party meeting ahead of the convention. Pennsylvania will have a significant percentage of the country’s unbound delegates, and could play an important role if there is a convention fight over the nomination. Retired neurologist Ben Carson, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush all dropped out of the race after the petition deadline, so if their supporters are elected delegates they will have to decide who to support.
>>68548796
I'm cautiously optimistic. Mr. Trump can leave no wiggle room for the RNC, he must win the delegates outright to not have the chance to be contested.
TRUMP OR BUST!
>>68555234
>What is wrong with them?
Democrats have it even worse with all those superdelegates
You're all insufferable faggots, who cares if Trump wins the nominations.
He can't beat Hillary.
>>68547385
i have been asking myself
>should Don let Lyin Ted win North Dakota on april 1st?
>>68555824
2 debates and she'll be on suicide watch
>>68555234
By the end of the primaries, there will be a decent number of unbound delegates.
Which is quite interesting, because let's say Trump doesn't meet the 1237 requirement. Worst case scenario, he would still be just shy of the mark. All it would take is a fraction of those unbound delegates deciding to say "we can save the GOP from committing suicide if we just elect trump like the country wants".
Of course, I know for a fact that the RNC people specifically rule out people that look like trump supporters from being delegates. But to think that EVERY SINGLE UNBOUND DELEGATE would blow off Trump seems a little unlikely. Hopefully enough would flip over if for no other reason than they want to keep the party whole.
>>68555728
>Democrats have it even worse with all those superdelegates
Nah, ultradelegates is where the real shit is at.
>>68555234
Pennsylvania's GOP is probably the most corrupt in the country from what I understand
>>68547385
assuming Trump gets elected what are the chances of congress putting the hammer on his tariff plans? All my imports are expensive enough
>>68549002
Not sure, but IIRC, there are 331 remaining WTA delegates out there.
If trump takes those, he will be at about 1080 with ~600 delegates remaining.
Cruz has no chance to win. He has known this for a long time now.
Cruz is only running so that Trump will lose so the GOP can give the nomination to Kasich or someone who wasn't even in the primary.
>>68556577
>what are the chances of congress putting the hammer on his tariff plans? All my imports are expensive enough
What tariff plans? You mean China or Mexico?
The chances that he as president or Congress as Congress puts tariffs on goods from China or Mexico or anywhere else - exceeding the limits set by the WTO (on average 3-4%) are slim to nothing. It would not just mean a trade war but the end of the membership of America in the WTO or the death of the WTO. It would tank the global economy and lead to depression.
HOWEVER, Trump has the possibility, as far as I understand, to use exectuive orders to partially and/or temporarily stop NAFTA which can put pressure on Mexico for various reasons.
On the China side, there are executive order powers the President has through his cabinet to build up pressure on reciprocity if China hinders American companies to access the Chinese market against WTO rules. But that would be industry specific, e.g. I believe it was discussed whether to put punitive tariffs on solar cells from China due to Chinese dumping prices on solar cells supported by the Chinese government through state subsidies in order to kill of foreign competition.
>>68547385
>If Trump wins all of April, can Cruz seriously still say he should get the nomination?
So, the thing most people don't realize is that this primary system is still kind of anti-democratic and leaves a lot of power in the hands of the leaders of the RNC.
The Process:
So, the math says that you have to get 1237 delegates to have a simple majority, which is then used to make a case for a given candidacy. Seems fair, right? Well, it's not as fair as you might think because at the end of the day. the RNC can always just piss all over the guy that gets the majority and just give it to the person they like or the person that they think has the best shot at winning in the general election.
Now, this hasn't happened in a while and after the 1968 DNC riots, the rules were overhauled to make the process more fair, but even then Trump will have an uphill battle trying to get the magic 1237.
GOP/RNC Strategy:
As of right now, the GOP/RNC is hoping that Kasich and Cruz will bleed enough delegates away from Trump, so he limps into the convention with less than 1237, which then gives them a strong case against giving him the nomination.
Either way, the RNC convention in July will be very exciting.
I don't drink very often, but I know I'll be drinking and eating popcorn that day.
>tfw I live 15 minutes away from Cleveland
It's going to be a fucking madhouse here if it's a brokered convention.
>>68556351
York here. Everywhere but the big cities is all for Trump.
Lot of NY train commuters will probably vote for him.
>>68547385
Cruz and Kasich are not in it to win it, they are in it to disrupt Trump as much as possible.
Its possible for them to win with delegates.
Kasich is like 600 delegates behind Trump, why is he still in the race???????????????????
>>68558286
collecting campaign funds perhaps
Quick question pol, I registered to no party and live in ny. Can I still vote for trump?
>if trump wins everything in voter fraud : the election
listen to yourself
>>68557806
Leaf, if a candidate wins 35 states in total, how can anyone say that this is not the candidate of the party? That would kill the party completely.
>>68557806
>Trump, so he limps into the convention with less than 1237, which then gives them a strong case against giving him the nomination.
But if he's far above Cruz, how does it give them a real case against Trump? Wouldn't the people that voted be rather upset in such a case?
>>68559692
What's with estonia posting this gif? Is it just one poster or a lot of them?
>>68561625
If Rubio, Jeb, Kasich etc. all back Cruz against Trump, there is a legitimacy still in the convention to go for Cruz over Trump, even if Trump has relatively more delegates.
But it is all theoretical, there are a shitload of delegates Trump will get in April, so many that he will get over 1237 eventually.
>>68547385
He will lose Wisconsin.
>>68555543
I am riding Trump all the way
>>68561625
>still thinking the parties give a shit about the people
>>68559562
https://dmv.ny.gov/more-info/electronic-voter-registration-application
Fill it out today, don't wait.
>>68556577
buy American you fucker
>>68561818
The girl in the gif is some faggot that gamergate faggots on /v/ made after they were tricked into donating to a feminist group that was being targeted by the extremist feminists like Anita and co. It's cancer reincarnated.
>Looking over last night's results after work.
>Cucktah votes nearly 70% for Cruz.
>>68562851
>zealots vote for the religious guy
I don't understand how some of you didn't see this coming.
>>68562229
America doesn't make everything
>>68557485
alright good he was throwing around some weird ideas but I guess he probably won't change everything
>>68560898
The system is very flawed. I know you're going to not believe this, but you have to dig very deep in order to learn the following: No body actually knows how many delegates a given candidate has. Just because Trump/Cruz/Kasich wins a state, doesn't mean they HAVE the delegates FOR SURE. They can vote differently in the convention and it's totally fair.
Yes, what you are saying is correct and it would destroy the RNC and the GOP's credibility, but what I'm saying is that it is completely possible.
>>68562063
my nigga
