Map I made assigning each state their color by voter turnout in their primaries
For all the states that haven't voted yet I just put in the 2012 results
Seem accurate?
>>68259754
>>68259754
PA is a swing state by this point, and colorado is probably going red because of lolbertarian bullshit
>>68260194
>Colorado
>weed capital of the country
>red
idk about that
they might vote trump tho since he's pretty liberal
>>68260071
>Ohio
>Going blue
wew
>>68259754
>>68260071
>PA is blue
>>68260359
Has Trump ever made comments on his policies on weed???
>>68260071
>best GOP scenario
>lose PA and Ohio
Wew
E
W
>>68260483
>What is density
>>68260359
>legalize weed
>OH MY FUCKING GODA DSFGLOADKNSGADDNSVADSFADKLNSV;DKLNV;DF ITS A BLUE STATE FOREVER OH MY FUCKING GOD ADSFGKNADLMSADSNLVANSDL
FUCK OFF.
We kicked out our anti-gun senators, you think we are going to vote for Shillary?
>>68260194
>>68260483
>>68260525
>PA is a swing state
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
>>68260495
>>68260653
''No drugs, no alcohol''
-Trump
>>68260386
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html
>>68260564
>what is my dick about to enter your outta town'r ass
>>68260359
What I noticed is that there was a 118952 vote turnout in the 2008 democratic primary and even a bigger turnout (121429) in the 2016 democratic primary
We don't have the results yet so we an't know how it turns out for republicans there yet BUT I also saw that 60% of those democratic votes were for Bernie
Considering the mindset of a Bernie supporter, when Hillary gets the nomination many of them may or may not care enough to partake in the general election
But I wouldn't count on that
Especially because of all the new hippie immigrants
>>68260751
>polls this early before even the fucking convention
I wish we stopped this meme. McCain beat Obama in early polls. They mean fucking nothing.
Call me after Hillary's convention bounce.
>by voter turnout in their primaries
There is absolutely no correlation between voter turnout in the primaries and victory in the general election. None.
>>68259754
I've studied American electoral maps, and I have a PHD in political science.
Your map is flat out unrealistic. Hillary will win Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Trump will take Florida and North Carolina.
Hillary will easily win.
>>68260751
>3%
>within the MOE
just fyi you've been posting the same shit for the past week
>>68260890
You know what else means fuck all? Head-to-Head polls this early done by shitty no name pollsters and local newspapers.
>>68259754
Why is New Hampshire so often considered to go red? I thought New England is blue as fuck.
>>68260071
>Arizona blue
Top kek
>>68260962
I just noticed he had Louisiana turning blue.
Typical underage /pol/
>>68261047
New England is blue as fuck. /pol/ is just retarded and delusional.
>>68261144
The most recent Arizona poll found Hillary in a tie with Trump in Arizona. It is actually a realistic scenario.
>>68260495
The only thing he's ever said is leave it up to the states which is about as based as you can get.
>>68259754
>>68260071
>>68260483
>>68260525
We can predict jack 8 months ahead, we don't know what could happen, faggots.
>>68260071
I think the Democrats could win Indiana in the worst GOP scenario as well. Obama did win it in 2008, after all.
>>68261179
Understandable. The youth are very delusional.
>>68261047
It has a fuckton of independent voters, assuming Trump gets them at the same rate he does now he could get NH.
NH isn't a permablue state like Vermont.
>>68259754
What is this memery about Louisiana going blue?
>>68260962
>hillary taking Virginia
>hillary raking anything from the Old Dominion
Obama was a fluke, everyone supported him first time around. That old crone can eat a bag of shit.
>>68260751
>general election polls before the nominees are chosen
Reagan was down by 20 point to Carter at this point in the election cycle in 1980.
>>68260071
>>68260751
>>68261358
I don't see that happening. I think the 2016 electoral college map will look much like the 2012 map. Obama just had momentum in Indiana. Hillary doesn't have that kind of stamina.
>>68261379
Just memesters making unrealistic maps.
We can't predict dogshit this early but I can tell you Hillary isn't going to easily win over States Obama won twice, every single poll and news outlet talks about how Hillary is having a hard time getting the same Obama voters.
>>68259754
>Trump is going to get raped: a graphical demonstration
>>68260848
Pennsylvania isn't a swing state...
>>68260974
?
>>68261144
>Arizona March 17, 2016 poll
>If the election is between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you probably vote for?
Clinton 38%
Trump 38%
Undecided 14%
>And if the election is between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, would you probably vote for?
Trump 36%
Sanders 39%
>>68261397
The polls show Hillary destroying all the GOP candidates in VA. This is a very viable scenario.
This is whats going to happen. Save this and you will see in November
>>68260962
Your PHD means jackshit in this election plagued by meme magic.
>>68261586
Nice one, leaf.
>>68261281
>>68260751
dont talk about me or my state's politic's again
>>68261673
Go get a fuckin job you fucking nigger, liberal, faggot.
>>68261634
the Republican primary is meme-driven
the general election is not.
>>68261634
Your short term memory and low IQ is worthless in the real world. Go pray to whatever God you believe in. Guess what? That will not alter the election.
>>68260751
I don't support trump, cruzfag here, but damn daniel that's a pretty good spread in PA. he might have a chance there
COLORADO WILL NEVER FUCKING GO RED EVER AGAIN
FUCKING EVER AGAIN
THEY HAVE LEGAL POT AND THEY HAVE EMBRACED IT. THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WOULD RIP THE FUCKING STATE APART.
STOP POSTING WITH RED COLORADO IT KILLS THE SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF THAT YOUR POST ISNT JUST A SHITPOST
>>68260962
How many states do you think Bernie could flip if he is the nom? Any?
>>68261586
>state that hasn't gone blue since 1996 when you had Ross Perot splitting the vote
>state that didn't even go blue in 1964
>"HURRR DURRR IT'LL GO BLUE I PROMISE"
Kill yourself my man, PA is more of a swing state than fucking Arizona is. If Arizona and Utah are swing states, then fucking Califonia may as well be one as well.
>>68261358
Not sure of that
>>68260359
>Thinking stoners will ever get up to do anything
kekeroo
>>68261859
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html
Since retards here believe in polls before the convention or any debate, heres a Trump+11.
>>68261870
The electoral map between Trump and Bernie would look much like the 2008 electoral map between Obama and McCain. He would certainly take North Carolina, Florida, and possibly states which leaned Republican in past elections like Georgia, Arizona, and Missouri.
>>68261902
I said the GOP will WIN Arizona but I'm sorry, Pennsylvania isn't a swing state.
>>68260962
If Im not mistaken Trump will win New Hamsphire by 53%
Every single year since 2000 New Hamsphire general election results were proportional to their primary voter turnouts
Test it for yourself
>>68260848
>Call me after Hillary's convention bounce.
Sanders, Obama and Bill are literally going to form a human pyramid so that Hillary can stand atop it wearing that flammable dress from the Hunger Games.
most of the Hillary-unfavorable stuff is based on decade-old memes, all she has to do is not fuck up how she responds and much of it will evaporate.
meanwhile there will be constant ads of Trump offering to punch people / judging bikini shows. there's a really hilarious audio clip of him saying Angelina Jolie "isn't that attractive" because she has "big lips". everyone is going get to hear it a lot.
it's going to be a massacre
>>68262235
NH has actual turnout in their primaries because of the status they are given
>>68262235
How did you come to that conclusion? The polls show Hillary beating Donald in that state by anywhere from 5-15 percentage points. New Hampshire voted for Obama in both the 2008 and 2012 elections.
It leans blue.
>>68259754
>For all the states that haven't voted yet I just put in the 2012 results
>Seem accurate?
Not quite. If Trump is the nominee, the Republicans are going to lose Utah.
>>68262251
Her lips are too big though.
>>68262134
>FOR RELEASE: NOVEMBER 18,2015
>http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf
>With 25 percent of the vote, Dr. Ben Carson is the clear leader among Colorado Republicans and tops Democratic front -runner Hillary Clinton 52 –38 percent in a general election matchup
>>68262192
Just to note, look at new Utah polling, and I think Idaho is on the table if Utah is because of high per capita mormon populations.
>>68262251
Because constant ads about Trump University 24/7 have hurt him so much, amirite?
People trying to predict the election this early are retards. People overestimating Hillary should actually she her try to campaign, she hasn't faced a decent challenge since 2008 and crumbled.
Not saying she has no chance or she can't win, but you overestimate her. There WILL be a full time shilling campaign but its not like anything that hasn't happened before.
>>68262410
Yes but they also had a higher turnout in the primaries unlike this year
>>68262464
the point is that it sounds vaguely racist (big lips) and also homo (woman married to Brad Pitt = not attractive). it's pretty much Donald's kryptonite
>>68262755
>some comment about some shit actress is Donald's kryptonite
They will go full time with the New York mob connection meme.
If Sanders can convince his followers to bury the hatchet and vote for HRC the election isn't even close. Well over 300 electoral college votes.
>>68262410
The point is I'm not comparing Hillary to Donald I'm comparing republican to democrat
There were way more GOP candidates back then so it evens out
>>68262615
>Because constant ads about Trump University 24/7 have hurt him so much, amirite?
different audiences my homosexual friend
happily the American electorate is not yet as inbred as you and your Arab-worshipping Republican overlords. I would start learning Spanish if I were you.
>>68262899
you're underestimating how effective making a presidential candidate look silly is. anyway that's just one quote.
>>68261611
Well played Canada. Quick note: CO might go red and NH might as well. But your scenario is the most likely outcome
>>68262980
>Arab-worshipping Republican
>>68262980
>arab worshipping
Uh... this is the USA, not the UK. Arabs are probably the most hated people here.
>>68261611
Why VA goes red? it is literally an extension of DC at this point
>>68262933
30 percent of them in a survey said they would never consider voting for Hillary, let alone the undecideds that would go to Trump. Plus sanders AND hillary are getting low turnouts, sanders people don't vote
>>68264703
That's why I said "if".
If Sanders can get millennial turnout up to 50% from their usual 35%
either by being on the ticket or making a speech at the convention and an unconditional endorsement of HRC
the election is a landslide.
>>68264703
Means nothing.
1) Ever heard of PUMA? Hillary supporters were pissed in 2008 and swore not to vote for Obama. They did anyways.
2) There is no correlation between primary voter turnout and victory in the general election. Voter turnout in the primaries measures the competitive of a primary, not the amount of people willing to vote for the party in the general.
>>68260483
Conservatives fall for
>pa is a swing state
Every. Fucking. Year.
This is the closest they've come in 30 years and the state is a LOT less white now.
Waste your hopes there if you want but you'll just ending up looking like an idiot.
>>68265825
how is then that republicans are crushing all voter turnout records that were set two decades ago? like you said, the country was much whiter back then. yet more people vote republican now.
>>68266266
THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN PRIMARY VOTER TURNOUT AND VOTES IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. NONE.
Get that through your thick head.
>>68265825
Looks like it's getting painted red this year, NOW BUILD WALL, PACO
>>68266266
Those numbers deliberately ignore crossover vote in OPEN primaries.
He's literally taking everyone who voted in the republican primary (including those who explicitly crossed over from dem to vote for him (hoping republicans would nominate a weaker candidate) and against him (some republicans, some democrats casting a protest vote).
All these variables and he's STILL not getting the majority of the GOP vote, nor anything near clintons vote totals.
But hey, I get it. This is /pol/ and the narrative comes first.
>>68267921
This is true for most elections, since they're business as usual. Both parties run the typical suspects and then demonize each other. We see the Huckabee/Santorum/Cruz candidate who panders to evangelical Christians, the Cain/Fiorina candidate who panders to business Republicans, the Romney/Jeb candidate who is the presumed nominee, etc.
This isn't a typical election. Trump was supposed to be a joke candidate. His campaign was supposed to fall apart, but it never happened. We've seen thousands of Democrats and independents switching parties for Trump. Statistically, Trump does much better in open primaries. This is proof that Trump is winning over disaffected independents, Regan Democrats, and nonvoters.
Remember just how low the voter turnout is in the US. If Trump can manage to bring out the people who've lost faith in the system, as he's been doing, he can win pretty easily.
>>68260752
There's not a damn thing wrong with chip chopped ham.
>>68269509
>This isn't a typical election
Retarded argument. This isn't some magical election where the rules don't apply. The fact is that a large portion of the GOP is fucking retarded, and that's why Trump is doing well in a race with multiple GOP candidates, none of which stand out in any particular way.
There is no correlation. Your party has zero chances at the white house, especially if you nominate Trump. And primary turnout certainly doesn't prove otherwise.
