This is honestly the best case scenario for trump. I don't think it's realistic for him to swing Ohio and Pennsylvania. He also needs Virginia for sure. Best case is a tie.
>Trump ties Hillary
>Tie goes to congress where each state has 1 vote
>Trump has more states
>Trump wins
>Butthurt ensues
>>68159169
>Implying he doesn't win Michigan
>Implying he doesn't win Pennsylvania
>>68160105
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html
>>68160105
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
>>68159169
all money on Ohio, Florida
either that or he has to win both, or the entire bag of nevada, virginia, hew hampshire and new mexico
>>68160219
>>68160315
>general election polling before the primaries have ended
This meme ends NOW.
>>68159169
>OH
>blue
People here are immensely frustrated. I bet it goes red.
>Trump doesn't win Ohio
>win 28 out of 50 States
>still tied despite having 6 more States than opponent.
Am I the only one who thinks this is strange
>>68161771
its based on population
still dumb though
>>68159169
Trump has a very good chance at Jersey and especially new York
>>68162145
There is no way trump will win NY. That's a joke.
>>68159169
he'll take NY.
>red as fuck outside of NYC and albany
>trump a celebrity and homeboy
>poor in NYC boroughs will vote trump over shillary
>manhattan wealthy will vote trump
>only brooklyn will vote shillary
>>68159169
There is so much wrong with this map.
If Trump is winning in New Hampshire then there's no way he's losing Colorado and Ohio.
New Mexico isn't going Republican.
Clinton is loved in North Virginia, downstate turnout probably isn't going to be enough.
Trump does have a legit shot at Pennsylvania, but he needs to somehow stop bleeding in the Philly suburbs.
>>68162684
You're delusional.
>>68163353
the only delusional people in the US are those who think shillary (a) will win and (b) will make a good president.
>>68162684
Manhattan hates trump. He has no chance in NY please end this delusion.
>>68163597
oh yes, i'm so sure that manhattan will take shillary over trump's tax reform...
>>68163490
Wow you just described 60+% of New York voters.
>>68163843
Yeah. Pretty much. NYC is sapphire blue and Trump has no chance of changing that.
Shillary support in Ohio is really weak honestly
>>68164137
Is Trump even loved by New Yorkers? Considering it's so liberal
What's the deal with Colorado voting Democrat in a sea of Red states? Le weed meme?
>>68164065
i've lived in NY. i have family in NY. NY voters are mostly conservative. the liberal concentrations are albany and NYC.
>>68164335
No. Not at all.
>>68164315
I read somewhere that a Republican only wins when he wins Ohio so Trump better win there
>>68161675
Well fucking do it, then. I'm tired of whites in Ohio not being able to control their niggers.
>>68164439
It has a lot of diaspora from California.
Massachusetts will be red, mark my words. Was a boston globe article recently about how many people switching parties and all D to R.
>>68164492
Oh I knew this was bait
>>68161675
yeah I really see it going red this time
We would have gone red in 2012 too probably if it wasn't a complete cuck Republican candidate then
>>68164137
>>68164335
>NY checking in
You'd be surprised
>>68164439
Colorado and New Mexico both have gone democrat before
>>68164593
Ah, I read that California libs are shitting up Austin, Texas too
>>68164542
Well we tried.
Didn't go well.
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cincinnati_riots_of_2001
>>68164793
thats what I meant
>>68161424
>people haven't learned everything they had to know about the candidates in the past 10 months
This meme ends NOW.
>>68164666
So we're looking at a landslide if a state like swings red? I also have seen people predicting he will win New Hampshire?
I was just discussing last night with my friends and their wives why we were lucky to live in NW Texas. We are not yet in serious danger like the states that are overrun by feral niggers.
One thing to point out: we all know that trump has the highest unfavorable ratings in the history of polling for these things so why is /pol/ so convinced that he's going to swing deep blue states like NY and MA? Did you guys learn nothing from Romney's absolute crushing loss? This board lives in a dream land it's wild.
>>68162684
>NY checking in
I agree with you, other anons are silly
>>68159169
That's not the best case scenario, Ohio is a true swing state not a blue state, if most swing states go for Trump then Ohio would have long before that.
Also Colorado is likelier for Trump than Hillary if she makes guns an issue.
>>68164677
>2006
>very unpopular Republican president
>2016
>very unpopular Democratic president
>>68165425
>bush 2008 approval rating 32% and falling
>obama approval rating 47% and climbing
>>68160219
Michigan:
1.2 million (D) vs. 1.3 million (R)
Assuming all Ds and Rs vote the same R wins
>>68160315
Pennsylvania hasn't even had a primary yet so that poll can go fuck itself.
>>68165877
forgot link:
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/08/primary-caucus-live-results-michigan-mississippi-idaho-hawaii-election-2016
>>68164542
against clinton, yes
against sanders, no. class based appeals work in the rust belt, and bernie is an honest to g*d socialist
I think Trump will do more competitively in NY than other Republicans but swinging the whole state? That's ridiculous. Good luck getting the niggers and mexicans of NY to vote for Trump.
>>68164801
California is a cancer that has metastasized the US heartland. Trump will need to extend the wall around cali too.
>>68165877
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/
Stop this meme.
>>68165360
E90th checking in.
I don't know if it's possible for Trump to win NY but I would guess the worst that will happen is that he will not lose as bad as most Republicans.
You do not see the Pavlovian hatred when his name is mentioned.
I think there are a lot of closeted supporters here.
Not a lot of Hillery love.
>>68159169
I think Trump is capable of winning your map plus flipping at least one additional Canadian border state
I also believe him when he says he hasn't even started on Hillary yet, that he can do to her what he did to ¡Yeb! and Rubio, and that even if he doesn't win over tons of disaffected democrats, he can drag Shillary's name through the mud until enough democrats and independents stay home to give his energized base a turnout advantage in the more blue collar dem states
I think we will see at least one shocking blue state flip that will give him the win, probably in the rust belt
>>68162684
Trump has as much chance of swinging NY as Hillary has swinging Texas, you delusional nigger-tier moron.
>>68166199
If thats true than how come primary turnout in 2008 was higher for democrats and the democrat won the general election while republican primary turnout was low
>>68166199
>fivethirtyeight.com
>being right about anything this election cycle.
Pick one.
you guys are really generous to hillary. i think it would be a very one sided especially if there is a terrorist attack or more riots between now and the election.
>>68166671
Because the 2008 primary was hotly contested on the dem side which increased primary turnout. This time the republican race is right but the dem race is all but won. This isn't rocket science.
>>68166924
Illinois Democratic machine going red? This is shitty bait. The farmers and sheepfuckers of north and south IL are such a small contingent they might as well not even matter.
>>68166818
The only states they've called wrong are ones they called for trump.
>>68167092
The whole rust belt has hope considering how well Trump polls among Blacks.
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/trump-gets-unexpected-announcement-about-blacks-hillary-clinton-is-scared/
>25%
>>68165253
Big spring represent
>>68167092
Any state with a high Burnie turnouts is a potential flip of Republicans, especially if Trump is the nominee
>>68166924
>red florida
>being this naive
>>68167281
IL hasn't voted Republican since Reagan. Hillary might be softer there than previous candidates but I don't think she'll lose. The article-within-the article referenced by what you posted even makes note to take it with a grain of salt.
I think this says more about Hillary being a bad candidate than Trump winning Illinois and its bastion of niggers.
>>68167659
Sorry, Bush Sr. My bad.
>>68167182
Clinton had a 99% chance to win Michigan according to them.
>>68165011
Trump actually has an entirely different side of himself to show to the GE voters, as a responsible and altruistic businessman with a genuine concern for the wellbeing of his nation, and a very practical and thorough approach to problem solving. He has been playing the brawler and the showman to get his foot in the door and grow a dedicated base of support. He has now transitioned to trying to win over the Republican establishment, or at least convince them that he's a preferable alternative to Hillary. Next he needs to show the undecided voters that, no matter how riled up his rallies get, he's not crazy, and he's not stupid. Then he needs to systematically drag Hillary's skeletons out of the closet, and destroy her in debates with them, to remind the American people why 60% of them view her unfavorably, and why 80% of them view her as dishonest, and to convince independents and blue collar white democrats that he's the better choice for their interests.
He has proved himself capable of achieving these goals, it all hinges on whether the GOPe is willing to commit suicide and hand the election to the Democrats rather than work with Trump. This outcome seems increasingly less likely, as more and more significant republicans break ranks and endorse Trump, and as the cries of the "anyone but Trump" camp become more shrill.
Trump is perfectly capable of whining the floor with Hillary and increasing republican turnout to help maintain gop majorities at both the state and federal level. He just needs the party bigwigs to allow him to do it.
Florida is going to decide this election and it is closer than anyone seems to realize. People forget Florida has a large pro-dem jewish population, also the primary democrat turnout was significantly higher than republican in a state where turnout was historically high for Republicans this year. Even more, most of this turnout was an attempt to beat Trump in a contested state.
>>68166641
From personal experience New York is ultra liberal in the city but tends to flatten out in other areas. Plus Trump is from New York. Not saying he will definitely take it but he has a pretty good shot
>>68167585
>florida
>not going red this year
Obama won with barely 60k candidate against fucking Romney
anyone who thinks trump can legitimately contend for ny is retarded. it will never happen without bloomberg running
>>68168139
As I said, I'm willing to agree that he'll be the most competitive candidate in the state to date but swinging is a stretch even for Trump's powerful meme magic.
>>68167969
This
I am kind of optimistic though because there have been quite a lot of Republican establishment people who took his side: Herman Caine, Krispy Kreme, Newt Gringrich, that Florida governor
These guys may not be big shots within the party but at least they have shown that it's possible desu
>>68168283
So Ohio is going to decide everything basically
>>68168099
600,000 more republicans turned out for the primary in FL
Trump among 3 other candidates only got 20,000 less than Hillery's total votes.
FL won't be blue this year.
>>68168503
It usually does, but if Trump pulls off upset victories in the rest of the Rust Belt and New England he won't need OH.
>>68168503
like it does every year. republicans cannot get to 270 without ohio.
>>68167659
I'm also predicting that nigger turnout and college SJW/young turnout will completely deflate compared to '08 and '12. Blacks will not turn out at 60-80% rates for a non black candidate, and the young will not be inspired by Hillary to get off their asses. Bernie's defenestration will most likely piss of his base and make most of his supporters stay home, further depressing youth turnout. Hispanics and Asians never turnout much, and Trump's handicap with them is really no worse than any other candidate with an R next to his name.
It all hinges on keeping minority turnout low and sapping Hillary's working class white support-base, especially in the rust belt.
The DNC has already been hemorrhaging blue collar whites for years, laying the groundwork for Trump. This sector of Democrats (which were Hillary's base in the '08 primary) have always agreed with republicans on most issues, except economic populism. By embracing economic populism Trump has intentionally put blue collar white democrats into play. That could very well be enough to destroy Hillary, especially if he can depress leftist turnout by destroying enthusiasm for Hillary by portraying her as the evil lying sociopath that she really is
>>68164677
To be fair Hillary was fairly conservative in 06.
She wanted a border wall and was against gay marriage.
>>68159169
This seems like a more realistic win situation. It's going to be close this year. I think it'll come down to Virginia.
>>68159169
This is a Hillary indictment/terrorist attack/riots best case scenario.
>>68168902
Agree with most of what you said but I think Bernie is controlled opposition and he wlll probably staunchly support Shillary in the general so I don't think his supporters will stay at home
>>68159169
It's just bullshit that California has so many delegates
>>68168283
Ohio, Florida and Virginia are the key states. If he can win them, he's in.
>>68168902
We have a lot going against us
1) the media is delivering the Hilary Presidency on a silver platter.
2) Bernie could get cucked into Hillary's VP
3) The RNC has said it might run another candidate to split the vote should Trump get the nomination
4) Trump could not get the nomination due to shady shit
5) A lot of people want Trump dead.
Trump has not been stumped, but damn this is gonna be tough. The best thing to do is to try and turn the public on the media and allow them to see Trump without their narrative.
>>68169360
It's the most populous. It actually has less than it should.
>>68168379
And a lot of establishment-leaning republicans are starting to move into the "Trump is preferable to Hillary and preferable to a brokered convention" camp. Jeff Sessions was, imo, a more important endorsement than Christie. He's and old school, pre-Tea Party staunch conservative, he represents a faction of the GOPE which has always been more principle and consistently right win than their neocon peers, but also saw tea party populism as a little unseemly. Other members of this camp show signs of at least accepting Trump's inevitability.
It's the neocons and RINOs that will have the hardest time accepting Trump. The election, to an extent, hinges on whether these old school Bushites can hold their noses in the name of victory or not
>>68159169
>Implying Trump won't get BTFO by the first female president
Hillary might be unpopular but that's nothing compared to Donald Trump, he's currently at 63 unfavorable according to all current polls averaged out.
This coming election will be a flash-back to 1964, and will signal the end of the GOP.
Your best shot was with Marco Rubio but you guys ran him out, ill be saving all the comments here and create a giant collage, and post it on election night.
>>68169500
what I fear the most is the power of young people that REALLY REALLY want to be part of something: An effort to stop the next "hitler"
The biggest mistake we can make is to say "they won't come out and vote because they are young". It's hard to overstate how dead set the 18-25 cucks are on being part of something just to post it on social media.
The recent efforts of the MSM have worked as far as the Trump KKK lie, unfortunately.
I don't get how Wisconsin goes blue. I moved here about a year ago and everyone seems like back country republicans
>>68170598
>implying
>>68171196
Wisconsin will be close this year, I'm guessing.
>>68171196
But when blacks turn out to vote in Milwaukee, you get KEKED.
>>68167092
We're actually more of the population than you'd expect, but the number of people employed by the state is staggering. You can't find a single Clinton or Bernie sign outside of Chicago without an accompanying "We Support State Workers" sign. Its a literal command economy here that would collapse if people don't vote Democrat.
There is literally no free economics at play here, it will never be Republican until it returns.
>>68167585
Trump got the first million count there of this year.
It's safer than precedence indicates.
I could see Trump winning every swing state plus Pennsylvania and Michigan if he chose Webb as his VP. Otherwise it's very much an uphill battle, especially if his VP pick is some airhead evangelical or slimy neo-con. After Romney I just simply do not trust /pol/ election delusions, even if my heart is with Trump 100%.
>>68159169
Here's a not retarded projection based on precedence, search histories and primaries (mainly primaries in states that have had them).
>>68165425
AHAHAHA
>thinking Obama is as unpopular as Bush
>thinking Obama net positive approval makes him unpopular
THIS: >>68165865
Obama's actually up to 49 on the RCP average.
52/44 +8 in the latest Gallup.
>>68170598
>he's currently at 63 unfavorable according to all current polls averaged out.
So is Hillary, numbnuts, they are literally both at 60%+ unfavorable. At worst, that will cancel out. Trump is also far more likely to change peoples opinion of him for the better than is Hillary, whose scandals are only going to turn off ever more voters as the campaign gets underway
>>68164666
MA bro here, as much as I admire your optimism I whole heartedly doubt that
>Implying Hillary doesn't have have a chance
once the normal, non republican general population gets out an votes, you'll see just how much power she has
