Cont. of
>>67898779
Alright boys, I have made my calculus.
If we want Trump to win the Republican nomination, he will have to win in all of these states (do at least 33%), witout any exception.
These are the scores he will have to do at least:
Utah = 25%
New York = 40%
Connecticut = 35%
Rhode Island = 35%
West Virginia = 35%
Washington State = 30%
New Mexico = 25%
Oregon =33%
Delaware = 33%
Montana = 33%
New Jersey = 33%
South Dakota = 33%
California = 33%
Pennsylvania = 33%
Maryland = 33%
Wisconsin = 33%
He'll have to do at least 31% in the "normal states" (Not Winner Takes All/Winner Takes Most)
The most risked states are the WTA&the WTM
Trump can manage to lose:
Arizona, Nebraska (that will probably be won by Cruz), Indiana (that will probably be won by Karsich)
That will provide him the 1,237 delegates needed.
He has to win California at any cost. If he doesn't, you can say goodbye to Trump, unless he runs as an independent candidate.
It will be the crucial state of the whole republican primaries. It's a WTA/WTM state, so it will be an everything or nothing for trump.
He is credited as the candidate with the most voting intentions, but it will be a closed primaries, which don't play in his favor; and California is a progressist, leftist and hispanic state.
It will be harsh for Trump to succeed, but if he manages to get the scores I said, he will be our next Republican candidate
>>67902592
I think he is far more likely to win big in Washington and Oregon.
...
I would assume he will win Indiana, ids that Kasich country?
>>67902859
Oops, forgot to Include that Wisconsin, South Dakota and Montana really worry me
>>67902592
France, given your devotion to this election, are you planning on moving to the USA were Trump to become president?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxx-Ph5wG2A
reporter
>Where do you get your geopolitical knowledge from, donald?
donald:
>I watch TV
>and Bolton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OHQNtPeUXI
george:
>How are you going to get the 11 million illegals out, donald?
donald:
>It's called management
trump is sarah palin with testicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQR81t21b5Y
palin can't name a newspaper or magazine she reads
trump can't remember even one quote from his 2nd favorite book "The Bible"
Every single time trump is asked to provide specifics, he shits himself and spills his spaghettios.
The man is a walking meme. He's a joke.
Fuck trump.
>>67902592
>muh contested convention boogeyman
>>67903077
Nobody gives a shit.
>>67902592
Which states here are WTA/WTM? I assume if he wins big enough in a few of these states it will account for a possible loss in CA.
>>67903283
He's going to take all or close to all in New York.
>>67902859
>>67902956
Washington and Oregon could also be won by Cruz. And these states only bring a few delegates.
South Dakota, Montana and Wisconsin are WTA/WTM states. Trump will have to do good if he wants to have a chance to become USA's next president
>>67902984
I'd like to move to the USA, but, as an American, I wouldn't support Trump. I'd rather vote for Karsich, or Hillary (ugh).
As a non-American, I support Trump because he's a non-interventionnist and anti-NATO.
He's the most pacifist of all the candidates.
I'd also support Bernie, but he basically lost the campaign.
>>67903276
Of course.
Since you can't refute any of the evidence that trump is an idiot, you choose to pretend that the evidence is not there.
Literally tumblr-tier you fat fuck.
>>67903408
Right. OP's picture is just an average of what Trump needs to win. He's going to win big in even a few of these states and it will shake up OP's entire model.
>>67902592
Indiana is obviously Trumps, I'm not sure why you got the impression kasich was popular there, its nothing like Ohio
>>67903509
No, you're cherry picking shit to call him an idiot. That shit you posted isn't even necessarily idiotic.
Stay mad that nobody gives a shit.
RCP lists two recent polls in March who put Trump at +16 and +5 leads respectively. Mind you they were both before Rubio dropped out, so Trump might have probably picked up most of the support Lil Marco had in that state. That said, I really don't think Cali will pick an hardcore Christian like Cruz; Trump will probably be fine.
>>67903509
Pay denbts
>>67903422
>Kasich, Literally an open border just fuck my country up family candidate
>Hillary, a do whatever Goldman Sachs tells me to do candidate
Why are frogs so dumb?
>>67903283
The red/dark blue states
He will probably not win Arizona, Nebraska or Indiana
He will have to win all the remaining ones, or he's out of the competition.
He can lose in Montana and South Dakota only if he gets really good scores in New England (55-60% or more)
>>67902592
good job... i guess?
you could have just used this
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/
>>67902592
Trump is ahead in Arizona (though we don't yet know how Rubio's dropout has effected the outcome), and he'll win New York in a fucking landslide, which is YUGE considering that both districs and AL are winner take all if >50%.
Also New Jersey is WTA and he'll get it as it's basically New York light.
Other than that, good job.
>>67903422
You need to change your header, I hope you know Kasich polled at less than 1 percent in Indiana in there last poll and was favoring Trump as well
>>67903810
You do realize Trump is predicted to win Arizona and his also favored in Indiana?
>>67903617
Indiana or Delware have a chance to be won by Karsich. I've chosen Indiana but it doesn't change much.
Trump gets over 50% threshhold in just New York and get gets another 40 delegates essentially for free. If he does just that it's in the bag imo.
>>67904033
Also, old but useful
>>67904096
Where is your source? Kasich has not polled over 1 percent in Indiana in any poll taken there and their voting base reflects those similarly in other very pro Trump states, highly working class white.
>>67902592
Pretty good calculations Frenchbro. Things are looking very good for Trump, he's getting well over all the needed numbers already/
Can you do you Cruz's necessities.
Because it's becoming clear that he it will be mathematically impossible for him to reach 1237
That's when he'll either make a deal, drop out, or make it clear to everyone he's a bought establishment shill.
>>67904283
>california
>>67904283
>Oklahoma
traitors
>>67904377
>>67904457
This is from around, December, not completely accurate but useful
>>67904377
Without Rubio, Cruz has nothing, and Trump has commiefornia for a lock.
>>67904346
There is no way the other candidates can get the 1237 electors.
It's either Trump wins, either nobody gets the amount of candidates required
Not especially concerned about California. Who else are they going to vote for, bible-thumping Cruz or 'literally who' Kasich?
>>67904943
Litterally who Karsich is the only "moderate" candidate remaining in the race.
He will probably collect a good part of the Rubio voters
>>67904645
The sooner Cruz supporters lose hope and see reality, the better.
I can't wait.
>>67905136
Amazingly, he doesn't get more than 1%
Even NY could give less of a shit about a "moderate"
Also no more hispanic pandering with Rubio gone, Trump destroys Cruz and Kasich there and with the black vote.
Is California an open primary? Are libs able to vote Cruz to try to fuck us over?
>>67902859
Hoosier here. No one even knows who Kasich is. Trump is going to win by a landslide.
>>67905985
No, you need to be registered Republican.
>>67902592
l-l-looks like i'm going to have to vote for sh-sh-sh-shillary...
>>67903509
PAY DEBTS YOU NIGGER TURNED INSIDE OUT
>>67904283
Once again, east coast best coast. Fuck midwestern/west coast cunts
Im pretty sure Trump is going to win AZ
>>67908771
Sheriff Joe is on board the trump train. And Arizona lives Joe.
Brewer came out for trump as well.
Trump will take Arizona.
