Alright boys, I have made my calculus.
If we want Trump to win the Republican nomination, he will have to win in all of these states (do at least 33%), witout any exception.
These are the scores he will have to do at least:
Utah = 25%
New York = 40%
Connecticut = 35%
Rhode Island = 35%
West Virginia = 35%
Washington State = 30%
New Mexico = 25%
Oregon =33%
Delaware = 33%
Montana = 33%
New Jersey = 33%
South Dakota = 33%
California = 33%
Pennsylvania = 33%
Maryland = 33%
Wisconsin = 33%
He'll have to do at least 31% in the "normal states" (Not Winner Takes All/Winner Takes Most)
The most risked states are the WTA&the WTM
Trump can manage to lose:
Arizona, Nebraska (that will probably be won by Cruz), Indiana (that will probably be won by Karsich)
That will provide him the 1,237 delegates needed.
He has to win California at any cost. If he doesn't, you can say goodbye to Trump, unless he runs as an independent candidate.
It will be the crucial state of the whole republican primaries. It's a WTA/WTM state, so it will be an everything or nothing for trump.
He is credited as the candidate with the most voting intentions, but it will be a closed primaries, which don't play in his favor; and California is a progressist, leftist and hispanic state.
It will be harsh for Trump to succeed, but if he manages to get the scores I said, he will be our next Republican candidate
>>67898779
Trump stumped.
So, nobody gives a fuck?
He's at like 60% in New York.
>>67898779
Thanks for doing the math, Frenchbro.
>>67898779
Why did you use this color scheme?
So blue he must win, red he needs 33%?
>>67900204
Blue = he has to win the state (+33%)
Red = He can lose the state (-33%)
I should have precised it
>>67899906
I know. He will probably get more than 45% in New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut and New Jersey, and high scores in most of the New England states
>>67900414
Are you just saying he needs 33% because there's 3 guys running? What if Trump gets 35%, kasich gets 15%, and Cruz 50%?
>>67900956
In the regular states, he needs 33%.
In the WTA&WTM, he needs to win
>>67901223
You should add a third color to differentiate the WTA/M states.
>>67901540
This
>>67898779
He will win California, I'll make sure of it. We will make it happen
>>67898779
Bump for interest, but keep in mind that the RNC is working hard with big-money donors to figure out a path around Trump. Do not be surprised if a serious 3rd party challenger arises and causes the November election to be decided by the Congress...
> - - - - - - - - - -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_College_%28United_States%29#Contingent_presidential_election_by_House
>Pursuant to the Twelfth Amendment, the House of Representatives is required to go into session immediately to vote for president if no candidate for president receives a majority of the electoral votes (since 1964, 270 of the 538 electoral votes).
>In this event, the House of Representatives is limited to choosing from among the three candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each state delegation votes en bloc – each delegation having a single vote; the District of Columbia does not receive a vote. A candidate must receive an absolute majority of state delegation votes (i.e., at present, a minimum of 26 votes) in order for that candidate to become the President-elect. Additionally, delegations from at least two-thirds of all the states must be present for voting to take place. The House continues balloting until it elects a president.
>The House of Representatives has chosen the president only twice: in 1801 under Article II, Section 1, Clause 3 and in 1825 under the Twelfth Amendment.
Actually, I've re-made the map.
This is a less autistic version
>>67902269
I have zero memory of the Arkansas primary, I can remember all the other ones at least slightly.
>>67902269
Wisconsin, South Dakota and Montana worry me.
I think he is far more likely to win big in Washington and Oregon.
![1458316152181[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/mRq4ApW.jpg "1458316152181[1].jpg")
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxx-Ph5wG2A
reporter
>Where do you get your geopolitical knowledge from, donald?
donald:
>I watch TV
>and Bolton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OHQNtPeUXI
george:
>How are you going to get the 11 million illegals out, donald?
donald:
>It's called management
trump is sarah palin with testicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQR81t21b5Y
palin can't name a newspaper or magazine she reads
trump can't remember even one quote from his 2nd favorite book "The Bible"
Every single time trump is asked to provide specifics, he shits himself and spills his spaghettios.
The man is a walking meme. He's a joke.
>>67902269
Any polling in Wisconsin and West Virginia? I imagine Kasich is doing fair there, due to regional reasons.
>>67898779
>and California is a progressist, leftist and hispanic state.
Isn't that precisely why we can expect him to do well there? The election is for Republican Party members only, yes? As such, these are more normal people, surrounded by insane SJWs and swamped by illegal foreigners, which can only make them more pro-Trump.
It's basically Trump/Cruz now, and the kind of motivations that get people to vote for Cruz are a luxury that only Mid-Westerners can afford. Out in the real world of "diversity", where Christianity is no longer a political force, Trump's message is far more pertinent, no?
>>67902823
>trump can't remember even one quote from his 2nd favorite book "The Bible"
reporter
>what's your favorite book donald?
donald
>the bible is my 2nd favorite
reporter
>what's your favorite tho?
donald
>all the others are tied for 1st
>>67903004
Yeah. He was up by 16 points there last I saw.
>>67902823
>this assmad shitskin again
>>67902823
Dont you have denbt to pay?
>>67902833
Michigan, Illinois and Kentucky were unimpressed with him, and the geographic division in Ohio itself seems to indicate that the rest of Appalachia will B him TFO. He only got New England votes because it was early on in the contest.
>>67903037
>>67903175
>>67903227
That's right.
Let the butthurt flow through your destroyed anus.
>>67899461
Rubio dropped out. Only the most deluded think all his votes will go to Cruz. When Rubio left he pretty much handed Trump the presidency. Trump will go above 50% and take most if not all the remaining states.
>>67898779
>Indiana
>Kasich
Indiana is fiercely Trump, dont be fooled because its next to Ohio
>>67902823
He was lying about the bible for the religious retards. Everyone with an IQ over 95 understands this. What is your point?
>>67898779
>tfw commiefornian
Maybe my vote will matter for once
>>67902823
Nobody gives a shit.
>>67903536
THAT BOLTON THOUGH!!!
THAT FUCKING BOLTON!!!
AND MANAGEMENT!!!
DUDE MANAGEMENT!!!
WE'LL GET THE 11 MILLION ILLEGALS VIA MANAGEMENT!!!
>>67903671
Of course.
Since you can't refute any of the evidence that trump is an idiot, you choose to pretend that the evidence is not there.
Literally tumblr-tier you fat fuck.
>>67903733
No, you're cherry picking shit to call him an idiot. That shit you posted isn't even necessarily idiotic.
Stay mad that nobody gives a shit.
>>67902823
I laughed so fucking hard at this. Don't you want to watch the world burn too?
>Who do you consult for foreign policy
Myself because i have a very good brain and ive said a lot of things.
Fuckin almost died driving to work when i heard him say that on the radio
>>67902710
South Dakota here. I'm voting Trump.
That's one vote for him.
>>67903990
They think south dakota will be hard on trump? Is it because of the res?
Germontania better vote for trump.
>>67903945
>Don't you want to watch the world burn too?
Only if the decision is made by a leader like Putin, not an asshat like trump.
trump is charging people $25 for his shit hat!!!
>>67904368
I have no idea. I thought we were going to be an easy win for Trump but then Wyoming happened. I kind of view us as similar states so it kinda worries me. I don't know what happened there. Maybe the religious people?
The only states I think Cruz has a chance in ara
>Utah (this is a lost cause, let's be real. Trump shouldn't even waste time in this state)
>Montana
>South Dakota
Slightly worried about
>Washington
>Oregon
The rest I think Trump has a good chance. Kasich might fight him hard on the west and east coast (sans NY) and maybe the midwest, but I don't think is appeal is wide enough to threaten Trump.
>>67898779
California has 53 congressional districts, all of which have their own winner-take-all delegates.
He doesn't have to win California, but he does have to win a significant number of the districts
>tfw I'm registered republican in California
>tfw I'm voting Kasich
sabotage
Latest prediction
>>67899461
You're not done yet. Put these percentages by current average polling.
I noticed there's only 3 polls in New York (at least on Real Clear) that put him waaay ahead. Not enough data
to know if he can hit 50% and take all the delegates.
>>67905416
>Cruz doing that well in Wisconsin and RI
I dunno.
>>67905204
theres no way hed win washington considering most people in the large cities dont like him
>>67905416
Cruz won't win North Dakota. We've already done a straw poll and Trump won it by a large margin.
>>67905411
Well, I have 8 people who I convinced to register republican and used to be democrat.
All are voting for Trump.
>>67905608
Is Cruz still getting funding now that it's pretty much impossible for him to win?
>>67905608
I dunno a damned thing, really, I'm just playing. But Cruz can pull off a few counties anywhere, it seems. Look at the solid islands of counties in Missouri and Illinois. And that weird band in North Carolina - wtf is THAT about?!¿ Regarding Connecticut and Rhode Island, I just figured that there must be some influence swayed in New England by establishment cuck forces, expressed in a Cruz vote now that Rubio's gone. Naturally, I look forward to being pleasantly surprised, but I'm trying to imagine something "realistic" rather than sweeping the board completely - which MAY happen!
>>67905694
Even among republicans? Democucks don't matter just yet. I could see Kasich being a competitor in the more liberal states.
>>67905852
>a straw poll on /pol/ supports Trump over Cruz
I'm not saying that poll could be biased but it could be biased.
>>67905416
Does Trump take Arizona in this?
>>67905866
>things that never happened
I think you should expect that practically every state with an Open Primary you'll get tons of Soros funded Democrats crossing over to stop Trump.
This is how he lost Ohio
>>67905204
PNW will be a landslide for Trump. The religious right essentially does not exist.
>>67902823
>communist shithole
>calling anyone a joke
>>67906093
I'm guessing the rest of the SW will follow Nevada's lead, with just the Mormons throwing a spanner in the works.
Trump needs Arizona, not Utah. Utah will be proportional unless Cruz wins 50%. Furthermore, Trump has a much better shot in Arizona.
Trump has a good shot in Indiana. Indiana is more like an extension of Kentucky than Michigan or Ohio. That's why Indiana always goes red in the general election.
Nebraska, the Dakotas, and the mountain states will be hard to win. The West Coast, Northeast, and Rust Belt are basically ours. Kasich will either be limping along or dead by then.
There are two factors that will negatively influence Trump:
>Many primaries from here on out are closed.
>Many voters will be voting strategically against him (we saw this in Florida, where Rubio was dead in the water, but managed to overperform his polls).
>>67907001
Mormons literally believe in American Jesus
I'm not sure you want to underestimate the stupidity of these people. I'll bet you anything Cruz gets the 50% he needs in Utah
>>67907192
Romney campaigning with Kasich should keep Cruz below 50%
>>67898779
Nebraska reporting in
I have 2 kids in college and one hates Trump (she's kicked out to her grandmas because I run a dictatorship here :) if she doesn't vote Trump. She says "he's mean" I say " he's not a puss and is getting death threats" so I've been red-pilling her like crazy. She likes Bernie for free college and that's all. I tell her give me a third of her paycheck, and then give the illegal neighbor a third, she said "wwaaaattttt" I said that's what Bernie is going to do.
Other kid red-pilled all to hell. Hates illegals.just like dad.
Red-pilling the youngest might be the hardest, her school is at my guess about 20% white at most. Got a lot of work ahead.
Pic kind of related. Funny too
>>67902833
Kasich is screwed in WV. Appalachian Ohio was solid Trump territory.
>>67905416
Do you think Trump will win the Missoula and the Indian reservations in Montana?
>>67907894
*the liberal bubble of Missoula
>>67902823
You poor Greecey piece of shit. Get off of the public computer, go fight some gypsy bums for the kebab scraps out of the dumpster and then gather up some aluminum cans to pay back your socialism debt.
>>67898779
I think Trump will win Neb. Because we've had a lot of problems here lately with the illegal aliens. 93 yr old raped and beaten not far from me.
Robberies at stores ,gas stations, kids with guns all the time. Hell, even Lincoln (state Capitol) a couple years ago there was a soccer game and a team from omaha(south high) entered the field and the audience was throwing Green cards at them. Green 3x5 note cards. The news agencies went nuts. Fuckin funny as hell!
>>67907001
Trump is polling very high in AZ.
Trump has to win in these states
>>67902833
West Virginia will go to Trump. Appalachia loves Trump. I am worried about Utah, Montana, and Oregon. They will probably go Cruz.
>>67898779
Commiefornia here. Legal question. I am not registered with any party so I can't vote in the Republican primary. I already requested a vote by mail ballot for Democratic primary. Would it be legal for me to reregister as Republican and request a new ballot?
>>67910116
I promise you Cruz will not come close to winning Oregon.
>>67910459
Sure, as long as the deadline has not passed you can switch parties by re-registering.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/
>>67902710
South Dakota hear too, he's got my vote
>>67898779
Dude, everything you said here was wrong. Cali is not a winner take all state, it only has winner take all congressional districts.
Trump will likely not even cross 15 percent in Utah, but in New York he's polling at 64 percent. New York is WTA past 50 percent. Arizona is a WTA state and he will definitely win there. Basically your whole model is way off, but I appreciate the effort.
Currently, Cruz needs 815 delegates to reach 1237. There are 975 delegates left to be awarded. This means that he would have to win 83.6% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination. That's obviously going to happen. This means that Cruz cannot afford to lose more than 160 delegates or it will be impossible for him to win the nomination. Depending on how well Cruz does in the upcoming weeks will determine how long it is actually possible for him to win the nomination. Even if we are generous and assume he does quite well, after the New York primary, 338 delegates will have been assigned. As long as Trump wins half of those delegates, it will be completely impossible for Cruz to secure the nomination. At that point, many Cruz voters should hopefully realize they are on a sinking ship.
Trump will win Arizona.
>>67911892
Cruz's ship isn't sinking until the convention in July, when the GOP fucks Trump over and picks anyone else to be the nomination.
>>67911491
Did I say it was a Winner Take All state?
My map is not a prevision, it's what Trump should do to win the primaries, not according to the polls.
I'll adapt with the incoming results.
>>67898779
He might get much more in some states and less in others. I think he can do it.
New York is showing like 65%. I'm sure the rest of the east will be pretty solid too.
>>67898779
He'll win big here in Oregon. Very few Mormons and plenty of libs jumping ship.
Arizona, NM, NY, PA, and WA are also in the bag.
>>67913294
I have no doubt that Cruz will be delusional enough to continue. The problem is that he will very likely reach a point it would be literally impossible for him to get all 1237. How do you convince Republican voters to stay on board with you if you literally can't win?
>>67913626
It's the same reason Kasich is staying on: "Keep sending me pointless votes so Trump doesn't get them." Everything the GOP side is doing now is just full on anti-Trump, even if it makes Cruz and Kasich look like pathetic children.
Remember, recently the GOP said the voters don't pick the nomination, they themselves do. Votes don't mean shit either way.
>>67913839
Of course, but you have to sell that the Republican base who is obviously very, very upset at the GOP. I just don't see that strategy panning out with doing some really shady stuff.
>>67908353
>raping a 93 year old
I believe the margin for Trump is just too big now to safely rob him of the election. People talk about the GOP doing it anyway and committing suicide but building a new party will cost GOP jews too much money and effort.
The only elite plan now is to prop up Hillary.
>>67898779
Looking forward to seeing how western and eastern Washington vote.
