It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/
The bad news for Trump is pretty clear: even with a Missouri win, he would still have won only a little more than 47 percent of the delegates allocated so far. Moreover, he’ll need to win a little more than 54 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot. That’s certainly possible given there are several winner-take-all states to come, and Trump may do well in big East Coast states such as New York and New Jersey. Trump is also in a good position in Arizona, a winner-take-all state that votes next Tuesday.
Still, there are plenty of ways the delegate math can go haywire for him. My own delegate estimate has Trump falling short of the 1,237 delegates he needs because he has done poorly in the west so far, and many of those states haven’t voted yet. It’s also possible that Kasich plays better than we might think among moderate voters in the remaining states to vote in New England and Mid-Atlantic.
Moreover, there are plenty of signs that Trump would have lost a majority of states that voted on Tuesday had Rubio not been in the race. I’m talking about Missouri and North Carolina, where Ted Cruz beat Trump in a one-on-one race in the exit polls. Trump may be rising, though he is still not getting close to a majority of the vote in most states. If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate, they probably can beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests.
When you put it all together, I think the result on Tuesday can best be defined as messy. Trump is likely to have a plurality of delegates after all the contests have finished up on June 7. But a majority? We still don’t know.
Of course Trump won't get the nom, literally no one here actually believes he will win. The nom will go to Cruz with Rubio as VP, they'll lose, and it'll be 8 more years of Hillary.
That's Trump's game plan. Shatter the trust in the GOP establishment and for republicans to really take a look at their party and see if they actually like them or if they just hate the dems.
No one here actually thinks Trump will be president, we're not stupid.
>>67654860
Speak for yourself.
>>67654860
t. Kasich
Trump's game plan is to win.
They haven't counted Missouri
>>67654095
Tldr
Your math is off, Trump has more delegates than shown in your pic. He is over 50 percent to winning the nomination now and on track
>>67654095
I never understand why they don't all have the same target.
>>67654860
Hi Ribbit
If the MAGA party gets that 5% they need for dem programs he'll have a good chance in 2020. And in the meantime Hillary will bomb the fuck out of the middle east and incarcerate all niggers.
>>67654095
LMAO 538 hasn't even factored in Missouri yet. When the delegate count comes in, he'll be over target. GET GOOD KIDDO.
>>67655086
Target of what they were aiming for at this point, not 50%+1 at this point
Even if Trump only gets a plurality, it's still going to be hard to shut him down at the convention. I'm not sure that all that many people in the RNC really prefer Cruz to him, and he'll be able to make a strong case that he can win states in the general that Cruz has no shot in hell of winning.
Don't count out the guy who wrote The Art of the Deal to be able to strike this deal.
>>67655086
demographics. e.g. the south votes earlier, so one would expect someone who's supposed to do well there would get those delegates earlier.
He won't win because he's going against the system and the people that run the system.
He has no chance since they are doing everything to make it go through an open convention, and then you will see Trump getting BTFO by the people that run the show.
It's the same shit everywhere, even here in Europe. You are either part of the elite or you aren't.
Yokels with money won't get far in the political game.
>>67654860
Merrick Garland, you are up for a SCOTUS nom, son. Why are you shilling on /pol/??
>>67654860
why not jump on board? bernie has no chance and theres nothing wrong with the being on the winning team for once
>>67654095
>Trump has half again as many votes as the next highest contender.
>Trump isn't a clear winner.
>mfw
>>67654095
>comparing delegate numbers with targets before IL and MO delegates are completely allocated
>>67654860
if the republican party chooses cruz out of butt hurt they will cease to exist after this election, and they'll deserve it.
>>67655420
>420 lmao
what if the real conspiracy is that system is secretly supporting trump and this is all a facade for pushing through a radical right wing agenda?? hmm?
>>67654860
this ignores the fact that he'll simply lose to hillary anyway. the gop doesn't have to do anything at this point. they had a shot at beating bernie (say no to socialism). they have literally no shot with shillary.
>>67654095
652 is not the final number they are waiting for missouri recount the number is going to be closer to 690 by the end of he week.
>>67654860
Trump will win because he's the best cantidate.
>>67655635
nvm, they had IL allocated, even though jewgle shows only half of the delegates allocated
>>67655086
The targets are tilted so that they can have some states as mulligans, the one where they are expected to do bad. Cruz is down because he did much worse in states he absolutely needed because the future states are less friendly with only few exceptions.
Kasich should drop out. I'd love to see a two-way race between Trump and Cruz, because he would win big. I don't believe the polls that say he would lose against that rat.
Is there even anything legally forcing the Republican party to nominate Trump, even if the gets the required delegates? Wouldn't it just be an exhausting court case drawn out for years, meanwhile Trump doesn't get his just dues to run this year?
Would the Republicans just let Trump have his 4/8 years and try to stop any of his policies from gaining any traction while he's in office, or are they really willing to risk losing their voter base forever?
>>67654860
shill leave.
I don't have time to type out why you're such a cocksucking dicktaker but clink the link if you have the balls to an hero today bernie.
https://youtu.be/ckB19CoZryw
>>67656034
he was only in it to win ohio and deny trump, he did it like a good little stooge.
>>67656058
>Is there even anything legally forcing the Republican party to nominate Trump,
the parties can do whatever they like. political parties had not been invented when the constitution was written.
but. the parties have to consider the future.
>>67655086
It's based on likely strategies for winning based on the demographics that candidates appeal to.
Cruz appeals strongly to evangelical voters, and poorly with everyone else, so most viable path to victory was winning big in the more evangelical heartland and southern states which vote earlier in the primary season and using that momentum to drive the other candidates to drop out.
... unfortunately for Cruz, Trump swept the South
>>67654095
Actual Delegate count is 681 stay mad faggot
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hkgLa844MzTgeqcmrkeSrLnq7vJJZl2S7lMz8Qf5xq8/edit#gid=0
>Trump falls below target about 4%
>IT'S OVER TRUMP IS FINISHED
>Cruz falls below target about 46%
>CRUZ WILL BE PRESIDENT GUYS
I know this is bait, but man you're retard.
>>67654095
Those delegate counts are out of date. Trump is actually at 691 to 701 delegates according to the green papers. He will finish with 102% to 104% of his target depending on how Missouri allocates its 10 remaining delegates.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
In addition to being on track to the nomination, Trump is leading in every single 538 poll forecast in upcoming states, and many are winner take all.
Yesterday sealed the deal for Trump.
>>67654095
https://soundcloud.com/couchtruthing/emperor-trump
listen to this niggers
Cant stop meme magic
>>67655788
Never change Australia
>>67656154
>implying anyone wants to listen to some nerd's voice for 10 minutes
Condense it down to cliffnotes or don't bother
>>67655420
Except if they fuck him over, he'll run as an independent and ruin the GOP for eternity.
And during the general elections he would be savage as fuck.
They would screw him over before the end of the race and he'd be out for blood.
When people trick and lie, you no longer have to play nice, half of america would see his retaliation as justified.
When I think about it now, that would be more fun for us, though.
>>67655544
Checked
>>67656656
Sorry.. I forgot that everyone in your country has the attention span of a fucking ferret
what the fuck is happening in Missouri WHY HAS IT NOT BEEN CALLED
>>67656811
1 million votes total trump won by 1700 votes.
>>67654095
In order to be a nominee, you have to have won the majority of delegates in 8 states.
Only Trump has done that.
Cruz has won the majority in 4.
Kasich has won the majority in 1.
Cruz is not going to let a brokered convention happen. He has less of a chance of geting the nomination than Trump at that point, and he can kiss his career goodbye if he hands the race to Kasich or Ryan. He will send over his delegates to Trump if the establishment decides to force somebody else at the convention.
>>67656711
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-07/donald-trump-doesn-t-have-enough-money
>>67656711
>he'll run as an independent and ruin the GOP for eternity.
And the result would be a hillary presidency.
>>67656481
>He will finish with 102% to 104% of his target
really? sounds a bit optimistic
>>67656997
>Kasich has won the majority in 1
This is what blows my mind, he finally wins his own state and now he's suddenly full of it, claiming he will get the nomination.
>>67657196
Why does everyone assume this? No one is enthusiastic about that hag outside of boomer women/lesbians. She's not 08 obama or even 12 obama
>>67654095
>>67656997
>le rule 40 meme
that is only for the first ballot and when the majority of delegates abstain while trump is the only nominee, more nominees will be added in subsequent ballots and trump won't win
>>67656997
They can literally change those rules to their own benefit.
![4d582dcee4[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/94jeCGJ.jpg "4d582dcee4[1].jpg")
>>67654095
is there a downsite for trump running as idependent?
>shill thread about how Trump has no chance and he's totally finished even though he BTFO'd everyone at the polls
Yeah guys it's no use, he can't win no matter what, ignore the numbers, Trump is finished.
BREAKING NEWS
Unbound Delegates Could Hold Key to Stopping Trump at Convention
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/03/08/unbound_delegates_could_hold_key_to_stopping_trump_at_convention_129905.html
Modern party conventions have become scripted showpieces with delegate votes a formality. The last time a Republican nominee was chosen after a delegate “floor fight” was in 1948, when Thomas Dewey emerged victorious.
Haugland is one of just 112 Republican delegates who are “unbound” because their states and territories – North Dakota, Colorado, Wyoming, American Samoa and Guam – hold no primaries or caucuses. Instead, delegates are chosen at state convention without reference to voters’ views on the presidential candidates.
That opens up the prospect of them immediately swinging behind other candidates even if Trump arrives at Cleveland with a lead in the delegate haul.
If no candidate has secured 1,237 votes after a first ballot then the vast majority of delegates are “freed” to vote for whoever they want.
This would trigger a frenzy of horse-trading among party bosses and could even result in the emergence of a new candidate who wasn’t even on primary ballots.
Haugland, the unbound NorthDakota delegate, who is a member of the RNC rules committee, maintains that any delegate can do what they want because no penalties are laid down. “You don't get shot or hung if you break the rules. You don't even get jailed over the weekend.”
Moreover, if its chooses to do so, the convention rules committee can throw out all the existing rules.
If the RNC does this they better hope their security is good
>>67654095
Why does it even matter where Trump reaches that exact number of delegates? If he wins the majority, then he is who the people want. Wtf is the problem?
Guys, are Rubio voters going to switch to Trump, Cruz, or Kasich?
Yeah why can't some of you understand -
A contested convention is just as ideal as a Trump nom if your hope is a shake up of the system. The GOP will be all but dismantled, it will be splendid. 4 years of Hillary and people will be yearning for something fresh and radical.
>>67655811
>they have literally no shot with shillary
amazing how the GOP has no fucking chance against a women that blatantly lies every chance she gets, is pretty much a federal criminal by this point, had an abysmal performance as Secretary of State and rose to power via her husband.
Shes absolute dogshit from whatever point you look at it
>>67657641
rubio voters demographically align closer to kasich voters but since cruz is the non-trump front runner they will probably split
Trump tells Cruz to not be an establishment bitch, and to hand over his delagates and that he can be VP guaranteed.
>>67657630
from what i know, if you dont get the 1,2k mark you will have to go into this voting round where delegates are bound in the first vote and then when he still didnt get the mark, they will have a unbound vote and thats where they could just vote for kasich with 51% and make him the nominee
that aalso means that trump could just fuck off and say im running independent
there would be quite some shitstorm if they would taake away the nomination from trump like that
>>67657514
That if he doesn't get over 50% of the delegates or states, which is likely with three strong competitors battling it out, the Senate would pick the President. The Senate is controlled by the GOP, so you would have President Kasich and the largest political turmoil the United States has seen since the Civil War
anyway, if the Republicans refuse Trump's nomination, he'll just run as independent.
Prove me wrong my burguer friends
>mfw all the scummy shit that the RNC is going to pull to BTFO Drumpf
This train wreck has no brakes.
>>67654095
He has more than 655 delegates
>>67657199
Target is 677 delegates at this point.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
Trump has 691 delegates with 10 yet to be allocated.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/MO-R
Depending on how those last 10 go:
Max - 701/677 - 104%
Min - 691/677 - 103%
>>67657514
Infrastructure. There is already a slot on the ballot in all 50 states and DC for the Republican ticket. If Trump goes indy, he has to deal with the ballot access laws in 51 different places. No doubt he'll find enough signatures to get on the ballot but it will be just another hassle to deal with instead of using those resources for campaigning. The Olympics are actually helping Trump out a bit. The conventions are being held early this year to not conflict with the games. That gives Trump more time as an independent to build a ground network, open campaign offices, deal with ballot access, etc.
>>67657834
The delegates from the multiple parties make deals with each other with their candidates so they can get behind one another.
They make DEALS like offering each other jobs and connections. Something Trump is excellent at, something Cruz is complete shit at since he's an incredibly anti-social slimebag who doesn't even support from the Senate colleagues he's worked his entire career with. They're not stealing shit from him, every one will be rushing to get cabinet positions with Trump.
Donald Trump CONFIRMED for the Anti-Christ
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/#delegate-tracker-section
>>67657095
>literal blog
>(((bloomberg)))
>implying Trump won't have backers
What happens when you pull in majority of voters and the "ordinary" guys, but the few elites start going against you?
It boggles my mind when people forget that the elites are afraid of the them united. And attacking Trump via cheating is a great way to worsen things for themselves.
>>67657196
Result will be unknown, a chaos would ensue in your political system.
>>67654860
>shatter the trust
The GOP did that themselves by pulling this shit with Kasich and Rubio. At least Cruz has a legitimate chance, but the other two (Rubio an Kashits) are clearly plants. On top of that they're constant belittlement of their base who en masse support Trump has completely destroyed the prty.
I pray the GOP dies if Trump losses the nom, because it doesn't have any right to live
>>67658895
>but the other two (Rubio an Kashits) are clearly plants.
good god, loosen the tin foil cap.
>>67658326
Ben Carson got 8 delegates wtf
>>67659127
That's a 5 anon
>>67656187
this was after he begged for VP like a slut
>>67654095
1. Delegate count is wrong, and 2. not picking Trump would destroy the party. Nice try faglord.
>>67657199
Why are you commenting on something you know nothing about?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hkgLa844MzTgeqcmrkeSrLnq7vJJZl2S7lMz8Qf5xq8/edit#gid=0
>>67657597
place where the convention will be has bought a bunch of riot gear
>>67659035
Kasich literally cannot win, he needs over 100% of the delegates to win the primary. Hes a RINO plant to force a brokered convention you fucking cuckold
Kasich needs to drop out.
Even with Ohio, and even if he won 100% of EVERY SINGLE DELEGATE REMAINING, he still would not have enough for the nomination!
>>67658326
CHECK OUT THOSE TRIPS!
>>67659625
riot gear doesn't stop 7.62x39
>>67654095
I pray for a brokered convention, I really hope they are that stupid. I'll return home just in time for the bloodshed.
>>67654095
Is 4chan now anything other than shills? I come here about once a day, half expecting this kind of shit since the Great Migration, but I'l always surprised to see this shit tolerated on the once great /pol/. I suppose I find it somewhat entertaining, so keep it up faggots.
>>67654970
t. Stupid
>>67659971
>Fbi agitator detected
>>67654095
The best part about this is if he gets there in the lead and loses in the convention Trump supporters will boycott the election and we'll end up with Hillary as president.
I welcome chaos quite frankly so I'm fine with that.
>>67657909
It's too late to run as independent and win. Some states don't allow you to register as an independent anymore after a point.
>>67654095
Don't worry. Trumptards don't realize that Trump needs more than 50% of pledged delegates because they're so stupid, they don't know that the GOP also has superdelegates.
Trump is going to get cucked at the convention.
>>67657597
Reported for right wing terrorism
>>67655039
He has more delegates than that as well.
Missouri and Illinois' delegates haven't been fully allocated yet. Probably around 690 delegates, if I had to guess.
>>67655706
If they go against the voters and choose anyone other than Trump, they'll cease to exist
Good riddance
>>67657577
>"you won't get shot or hung"
Yeah, not by the lawmen. If you disregard the will of the people they might shoot or hang you though. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happened when an establishment goes too far in pissing off its constituents.
>>67661032
You are aware that the 1237 number is for getting past superdelegates, right?
Of course you don't
You're a fucking
Leaf
>>67655811
>this ignores the fact that he'll simply lose to hillary anyway
According to what polls, reddit? The same polls which said that Rubio can beat Hillary, yet he can't even win in his home state? Get fucked.
How can you Trumpfags not see?
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
>>67656409
The problem is that no one knows what will happen in a brokered convention, everyone assumes it's going to be bad for Trump and the only way he can be beat. That is why the delegate count is more important for him than for Cruz.
>>67657924
Funny how they are literally willing to kill their own establishment party just to inconvenience Trump. After they destroy the Republican party are they going to become Democrats so they can secure a spot in the establishment afterward?
They should have supported Trump if they wanted the Republican party to have a future.
>>67662178
Might have to do with the fact that the 12 MO winner delegates haven't been added yet, nor all of the per-district slots. Trump is expected to be around 102% or so once that is done.
>>67659971
7.62x39 and not .223 Rem or 5.56 NATO
What are you some kind of a fucking communist?
Trump has at least 691 delegates. I've even seen one count with 695.
>>67656154
Good video, thx.
They haven't counted Missouri you fucking idiot
>>67656154
Equalize your audio, faggot.
He's going to win all the Northeast and Cali
Oh and this whole thing is a ruse to make Trump look even more like an outsider
>>67662178
Why are you this fucking desperate???? What don't you get about the fact that all of the delegates have not been allocated yet?
>>67662584
They should have supported Trump if they wanted the Republican party to become Democrats.
>>67659817
>Kasich literally cannot win, he needs over 100% of the delegates to win the primary. Hes a RINO plant to force a brokered convention you fucking cuckold
sigh. several presidents have won after performing poorly in earlier elections. they get their name before the public, and the next time or two around, they stand a chance of winning.
Reagan, who first won in 1980, was a serious contender in 1968.
I realize that /pol/ tries to convince us that the entire world is one huge conspiracy, but many times, it is simply what it is.
>>67655706
>if the republican party chooses cruz out of butt hurt they will cease to exist after this election, and they'll deserve it.
... and they won't give a fuck because the GOPe and Hillary are owned by the same jews.
The establishment is running a suicide mission just to make sure they don't lose power.
>>67663590
Fuck off cuckservative. That party is dead it had its chance and we got fuck all from it.
Why are people falling for such low quality bait?
sage
>>67663674
Typing sigh.
>>67657985
Target is 719...
>>67654860
I'm fine with Cruz winning I'll still vote for him
But trump is just so damn good
>>67654095
>>67654095
The GOP is done for. No way they'll ever recover. We'll never get another Republican president at this rate. I'd only look forward to Jeanine Pirro shitting on the Republican party on all her shows.
>>67654095
I read that Cruz is looking for the VP spot, what does it mean for the brokered convention?
Can they still do that if Cruz drops out and trump gets all the remaining delegates?
>>67666027
This.
They run Trump, they're remembered as the party that ran a demagogue that appealed mostly to white males (not stating this as my personal opinion, but rather as a simple matter of fact). They run someone else, they will probably lose because they've gotten no media coverage up until this point, unless it's a complete cuck like Kasich or Rubio. I will NEVER vote for Kasich because of the fact that he's a buttblasted sore loser that stayed for Ohio just to fuck with Trump's numbers.
>>67663004
>tfw I grew up watching Godzilla movies as a kid
>brother is mentally handicapped and autistic
>we don't relate nearly as much now because of his problems
>every time I see a Godzilla clip or image it makes me depressed as hell
>>67668491
>brother is mentally handicapped and autistic
Why don't you guys get along? You two have a lot in common.
If Trump "loses" the rep. primaries, he's going to run as Indie.
934 left. Trump need 590. Do the math retards
>>67654860
>Cruz with Rubio as VP
Muh dick
>they'll lose
Muh sides
>>67654095
538 has Trump winning only about half the delegates in NY, CA, PA, states he can easily take more than half. I also think he will do great in Wisconsin and Colorado and exceed 538's projections. He is definitely on track for the nomination.
>>67669890
Also 538 hasn't updated to include all the delegates Trump has won in Missouri
17 candidates. 3 left
do the math retard
>>67669541
He said he wouldn't, but if the GOP pulls some dirty shit then noone will think he's a traitor for going independent, and I bet he has just as good a chance of winning.
>>67666642
That means that someone else is 'their' choice for POTUS in a brokered convention. Could be Rubio, Kasich, or even a late entry and some rule changes to accommodate Mittens.
