With most of tonight's results counted, Trump will have at least 682 delegates, which is 55% of what he needs to win the nomination. In terms of delegates, he has less than Romney did at this point.
What are the odds of Trump not reaching the requisite 1,237 delegates? There are 946 delegates left up for grabs, and not all of them are winner-take-all.
List of states yet to vote here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Doing a rudimentary (and probably useless) calculation, if Trump continues to win only 34.85% of the vote in future contests, that means he would win roughly 329 delegates in future contests. That's 1,011 delegates. With Rubio out of the race, Trump's percentage of vote received in future contests will likely go up, but is it mathematically enough?
He even falls short of 538's delegate tracker: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
bump. somebody here has to know more than me about this
Likely Trump wins (WTA)
>DE, MD, PA, CA, NJ
>(348)
Likely Trump wins (P)
>NY, CT, RI, WV, OR, WA
>(112)
If Trump wins those WTA states, that's 348. If he gets half the delegates from those proportional states, that's another 112.
With the 682 he's got after tonight, that brings him to 1142 with 374 left for grab, of which he'd only need about a quarter of to hit 1237
>>67609267
>trump
>CA
This is Cruz country, boy.
guys I dont know how this shit works
but rubio is droping out - does his delegates go anywhere? What about Kasich?
Can Rubio and Kasich drop out and transfer delegates to LyinTed?
If so we have a fuckton of work to do.
Someone please explain
>>67609562
this what happens to those delegates? do they get reassigned? or go to the second place (trump) ?
>>67609267
I'd imagine that he wins NY with well over 40% of the vote. There's a 20% threshold to receive delegates, so that could help him win most of the 95 delegates.
>>67609562
>but rubio is droping out - does his delegates go anywhere?
I've been wondering this too. He has the ability to release them, making them unbound at the convention, so they can go to any candidate they please I think. Could mean that some may go to Trump.
>>67609421
Nigga fuk u
>>67609421
Absolutely delusional
>>67609562
>>67609802
Pledged delegates are still obligated to vote for their assigned candidate during the first round of voting at the convention.
If the convention is brokered and proceeds to a second round, they are free to vote for any candidate.
>>67609562
>>67609802
At the convention they are required to vote for Rubio in the first round of voting. After that they are free to do whatever the fuck they want. That's why it's important for Trump to get in with 1237 on the first round otherwise everyone will team up and beat him.
>>67610178
>>67610016
I'm only stating facts here.
>>67609562
Rubio's delegates are lost to the void.
The faster we get another drop out the better it is it for trump because it means the losers will eat up less points. Kasich is next on the chopping block.
Remember that when meming boys!
>>67610494
get btfo
>>67609802
Rubio's delegates are unbound - basically free to pick whoever they wish if Trump fails to cross 1237.
>>67610672
>400
Drumpfkins sure are delusional. Just mad that their are more real conservatives in this state than whatever hickville you're from?
>>67610991
That's the only available polling information. The fact that two recent polls found Trump with a lead must mean something.
>>67610183
If there is a second round of voting, could Trump's pledged delegates turn on him and vote for someone else? Or is that only the case for candidates that have dropped out?
>>67608162
Trump is being cockblocked.
Plain and simple.
WAAAAAAH ITS NOT THE GUY WE WANTED WAAAAAAH
DEAL WITH IT. Trump will be the first President by a long time who got in by his own merit.
>>67610991
I know you are trolling but most polls use that sample size
>>67611255
Anybody's delegates COULD turn. In general, you try to select delegates who are going to be loyal to you at a convention and have the capability of helping win over undecided delegates in successive rounds of voting.
Trump has the advantage in a brokered convention. Worst case scenario he goes into the convention ~50 shy of the mark. That's 50 people to win over vs 500 or so for Cruz
>just waiting for it to get certified
CNN just called it without calling it.
Is it realistic to hope Trump will clear 1237?
>>67612247
Yes, but not certain.
>>67611868
NBC says Trump will win 32 delegates in Missouri.
>>67612247
It's still definitely doable, but he's got his work cut out for him
NBC says Trump has 655 delegates.
Of the straight winner-take-all states, Trump should win Arizona, Delaware, and New Jersey. That's 125 more, which puts him at 780. Proportional states are harder to predict.
>>67609267
>>67608162
>>67609562
>>67609802
>>67609884
>>67610183
>>67610360
>>67610516
Cf Ginsberg on MSNBC : Rubio's delegates are now "Unbound", so they WILL vote for who they want (or a convinced to vote for).
Also, there is a BIG difference between real winner take all and "winner take MOST" states : states where you win a share of delegates for winning the states but most delegates are allocated on according to results in congressional districts.
California state win is like 10 delegates, all the rest is CD. Real WTA states coming are Arizona, New Jersey, Montana, Nebraska but all the rest should be much more divided. But there's still a good path to get the 1237 number, and even if we fall short there will be 300+ unbound delegates to pick from (by paying them).
>>67612924
Do you think Kasich could be bribed to give his delegates to Trump in exchange for the VP position?
Oh fuck, look again, it aint over yet.
>>67611833
so your delegates can be any republican you choose? or do they have to work for that state's government and be republican?
>>67613338
1) No
2) This could only work in a second round of voting, cause round 1 delegates are bound to their candidates. Unbound delegates come from candidates who dropped out AND from states who decided to go at the convention unbound (exemple : Colorado, Virgin Islands, etc).
3) We absolutely don't want Kasich as VP. He is the furthest away from Trump regarding policies (by far, i mean pro amnesty, pro immigration, pro TPP, he is masculine Hillary).
And it would just lead to Trump being assassinated (Reagan / Bush).
So it won't happen. You could expect a real sneaky alliance between Cruz & Kasich but i really don't see it happening.
Truly, considering the path and momentum, Trump should get 1237 despite what they say, or he will have to convince enough "unbounds" to add-up and garantee a first ballot win. If it goes second ballot, we very well may be fucked.
