Trump winning Florida is not a good thing.
Here's why:
1) Trump wins Florida and gets 99 delegates
2) Rubio drops out and endorses Cruz
3) Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates (163) and now has nobody to split the remaining anti-Trump voters with
4) Trump will continue to win states but with no competition, Cruz can prevent him from reaching the target
5) Brokered convention, GOP begrudgingly nominate Cruz over Trump
Trump benefits the most the longer Rubio remains in the race and takes away from Cruz. There are only 1400 delegates remaining and nobody is close to the target.
If Rubio endorses Rafael that will hurt him with his loony booger-eating followers.
>>67402619
Winning Florida would be fine, but Trump needs to lose Ohio
rubio wont drop
>>67402619
If Trump wins Florida and Ohio it will be a knockout punch that will pretty much guarantee him the nomination
>>67402619
I think he's going all the way to the convention, florida or not because he isn't running for senator. Which is why Rand Paul dropped out.
Rato is trailing behind Trump in every remaining contest
>>67402702
He won't be in the race anymore, it wont matter
>>67402619
>Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates
im no ameritard but i doubt thats how it works
>>67402619
Delegates don't transfer like that, do they? They just become unbound.
>>67402619
>Cruz endorsed by Rubio
Nice meme. The establishment is going all in for Kasich.
Trump is going to get robbed in Illinois. The way they allocate delegates there is ripe for manipulation. Remember this post tomorrow night when Trump has a huge lead but gets no delegates in Illinois.
>>67402619
It doesn't matter, Trump could not lose Florida even if he tried.
Also at the first ballot, Rubio's delegates must vote for Rubio
And Cruz is the easiest mother fucker in the world to take one on one, the states coming up for him are very unfriendly for him
>>67402619
>>67402808
How about Trump loses every state so no one drops out and endorses [enter big threat here]. Then Trump will surely win!
>>67402967
>>67402971
As far as I can tell, an endorsement binds them for the first round of votes at a convention
>Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates (163)
Can someone explain this part please.
Thanks you ahead of time.
>>67402961
It will hurt Cruz's supporters not Rubio's. Some Rubio voters might go to Cruz as a last stand against Trump, but most will see that Cruz is much less moderate than Cruz and will likely swap to Trump like when Bush's support went to Trump.
Besides it will really hurt Cruz's appearance and anti-establishment when he gets endorsed by the establishment puppet of the race. Crux supporters will feel betrayed by their candidate for siding with a Washington elitist.
>>67402619
The delegates don't get transferred you fucking stupid failed abortion
>>67402619
lol rubio wont drop out, he wants to take delegates away from trump in the remaining states, also rubio hates cruz about as much as trump.
trump need to make a deal with the establishment if he plans to be the nominee
Was 't Arnold Schwarzenegger a Democrat? why is he endorsing a Republican for president
>>67402971
>>67402967
It doesn't work that way. They likely still have to vote for Rubio on the first ballot, but then they are free to vote as they please after the first. The rules committee at the convention can make any rules they want though, so subject to change. If Trump reaches the delegate threshold, it's moot.
>>67402619
>3) Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates (163) and now has nobody to split the remaining anti-Trump voters with
Nope. The delegates are not obligated to vote for who the candidate endorses.
A brokered convention will be the death knell of the GOP. They'd be fools to do it. The last time it happened on the GOP side was Dewey in 1948. The last time either side's brokered candidate won was Eisenhower in 1932.
If Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio drops out, he will win the brokered convention
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/03/14/romney-kasich-has-the-kind-of-record-that-you-want-in-washington/
Where does Kasich factor into this? He's got Romney out there supporting him, so what happens if he performs well in Ohio?
I don't think the establishment is quite ready to get behind Cruz.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1273965/Ted-Cruz-attended-conference-hosted-anti-gay-pastor-Nov.html
^^^And this certainly isn't going to convince him that he's an electable candidate.
>>67402619
>5) Brokered convention, GOP begrudgingly nominate Cruz over Trump
HAHAHAHAHA No
No matter how much of an establishment stepchild Cruz is, they don't want him. Romney just teamed up with Kasich which pretty much confirms that he's going to get the nomination if the broker happens.
If Rubio loses, the establishment will make him hand his delegates to Kasich.
Will Trump win? Will the brokered convention happen? No matter how you answer those two questions, Cruz has no chance.
>>67403323
No, he's a Republican. Always has been.
>>67403393
1952 but yeah, it completely fucked up the democrats until 1960.
>>67403323
Schwarzenegger was a republican in heavily democratic California.
>>67402619
>Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates
The gaping-asshole flaw in your logic, OP.
Cruz absolutely does not automatically receive Rubio's delegates.
What actually happens in some states is that the delegates stay with Rubio anyway.
In other states they are freed up to select a different candidate, which would not necessarily be Cruz.
tl;dr lurk moar OP
>>67403477
them*
>>67402619
Most of the remaining states are winner-take-all, so it doesn't matter if Cruz is a close second, if he doesn't win he doesn't get shit.
>Trump winning is not a good thing.
>>67403574
I meant Roosevelt in 1932. Eisenhower wasn't brokered in '52.
>>67402907
he's not winning Ohio
PSY OPS IN PROGRESS
SHOO SHOO SOROS
THIS IS THE MOVEMENT OF OUR LIFETIME! TRUMP IS OUR ONLY HOPE TO MAGA! HE IS THE RIGHT CHOICE, RIGHT NOW!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a3n45oqSwOI
>>67402619
Rubio will endorse Kasich
>>67403284
The explanation is that OP doesn't know how delegates work. Endorsing another candidate doesn't change the fact that the delegates that are bound to you still have to vote for you in the first round of voting. The only time that they can switch their vote is if it has to go to a second ballot.
>>67403393
They seem pretty okay with suicide and betraying their voters over betraying their donors, though. At least shitheads like McConnell do.
If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary will win the election. Cruz may not be as controversial as Trump, but he isn't much different than Trump. I don't see angry Bernie voters voting for Cruz (some will for Trump). The Republicans have a disadvantage with the electoral college. Cruz needs Independents and Democrats to vote for him.
Why is that a thing?
>I personally endorse this guy so now all those people who voted for me actually voted for him!
what the fuck america?
>hurrdurr don't vote, listen to my stratetic horseshit that has no basis in reality
>>67403921
That's Silver, the same pollster that claimed Hillary had Michigan on a 99% lockdown.
He's been wrong every step of the way, it's actually kind of funny.
>>67403869
No but funny enough the democrats got brokered in 1952 and put Adlai Stevenson on their ticket.
>>67402619
Someone has to win Florida though. Are you saying it's better to let Rubio gain 99 delegates than for Trump to get them himself?
Cruz needs to get the popular vote to even have a chance at winning. The GOP don't want either of them, but will back whoever has the most votes at the convention. The real danger is Kasich and Romney.
>>67403510
Read this article.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-brokered-convention-gop-rules-favor-trump-n535381
By the convention there may only be two people qualified for candidacy: Trump and Cruz. And Cruz is iffy,
>>67402619
I BELIEVED IN YOU, FLORIDA
REEEEEE
>>67404953
>Kasich and Mittens
>real danger
wew lad
>>67404350
>If Cruz is the nominee, Hillary will win the election.
If anyone but Trump is, Hillary will win. Even if Trump only takes 1-2% that's most likely enough to guarantee a loss.
>>67404365
It's not a thing, OP is retarded.
>>67404953
It still baffles me that the GOP is trying to make Mittens relevant again, he lost one of the easiest elections in recent memory.
>>67404576
Nate's predictions are based on the polls. That's why his shit is up for free on ESPN. There isn't a big leap he's making. I'm sure ESPN is just paying him to blog to bring a more diverse group into the main site.
>>67402619
>2) Rubio drops out and endorses Cruz
>3) Cruz automatically receives Rubios delegates (163)
Wait is that how it works?
So Trump has Carson and Christie's delegates now?
>>67402619
Why would Cruz get Ruboto's delegates?
you're delusional
>>67402967
The Hungarian is correctamundo.
>>67403510
What the fuck would happen if a brokered convention resulted in Kasich as the candidate?
Like nobody wants him.
>>67402619
Cruz is just as bad for the GOP itself. Trump is just worse for all the elites.
>>67402619
no one receives any other candidates delegates until the convention.
>>67403066
no chance. I was at the Trump rally when it got shut down. People are fired up about this.
"See you on election day" was the main line said to the protesters.
>>67404131
that video made me fucking gag
>>67403532
He was perhaps the worst (the worst being gray davis) gov of California ever. He destroyed the GOP brand there.
>>67404953
Kasich can never be the nominee. A man who hasn't won a single state yet. It's the same issue for Rubio - some loser polling single digits in multiple major states cannot represent the party.
It'll be Trump, or Cruz if he can somehow collect enough delegates to win outright.
>>67402619
If Trump loses both FL and OH he is clearly stumped and is over
If he wins both the race is over
Winning FL and losing OH is the most probable outcome and then we can play with the consolation of leterally who staying in the race when he has no option.
Trump needs to get closer to the winning total to prevent any jewing at the convention
The anti-trump vote is a myth. Trump wins 1v1 vs any other Repub. Some of Rubio's supporters will go to Trump.
>>67403574
Your understanding of 1952 is backwards. The Republican party got so BTFO in 1932 that they became almost irrelevant for a generation. In 1952 they were considering McArthur and Eisenhower for the nomination because they thought that running a war hero instead might boost their fortunes instead of running party insiders such as Thomas Dewey who had already lost in 1944 and 1948. Nixon was respected adminstrator across parties because of his war work, not really an ideological leader. This served him well against Stevenson, who was a true party man. It was only in 1960 with Nixon and really with Nixon's ascent in 1968 that the republicans had credible leadership from a politician.
