Do people on /pol/ acknowledge the fact that Trump has little chance of winning the general election against Clinton?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
This is not a biased source, it's a poll average. And it shows Trump at 41 to Clinton's 47.3, and it's actually getting worse.
This is not an anti-trump thread. I do not dislike Trump. I'm just genuinly curious if people support him despite knowing that he is the least likely Republican candidate to actually get elected.
>inb4 he hasn't even started on Hillary
Polls around March showed Carter beating Reagan too. It's still too early.
Hillary actually tried to attack the Don last year by trying to call him sexist. She got BTFO and hasn't attempted another attack ever since.
>>67353574
The are far more republican voters than democrat voter. Most of the Republican voters will vote for Trump if he wins the republican nomination. Don't worry
do you acknowledge the fact you should fuck off?
>>67354335
This
also sage thread
>>67354335
Evidence says otherwise.
>>67354335
>>67354414
>Getting triggered by truth
>>67353574
these polls are useless, just wait until he starts going after hillary, THEN the polls will matter
>>67354335
This. Not to mention the professor who has a formula to predicting the next president, he predicted Trump with 97% chance to beat Hillary
>>67353909
>It's still too early.
this
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-02-26/trump-will-become-president-statistical-model-says (mentioned by >>67354523 as I was typing)
What >>67353909 said as well.
Not to mention the yuge frustration the American Public has with the Government. You look at the past few election cycles and it's been consistent R, then D, if it wasn't an incumbent, and it shows that people are never satisfied with thier elected official. It's an R's time, and Trump is just playing off the Frustrations of the Silent Majority of Americans.
>>67353574
There is still a campaign to be waged. A lot will happen between now and November
>>67353574
A couple things:
-General election polls don't really matter this far out. Before Reagan's landslide victory against Carter, at this same time in the year he was down 30 PERCENT in the polls
-Trump has not started to campaign against Hillary yet
-GOP support is still divided, people hate Trump but once he becomes the only alternative to a woman Republicans have despised for 3 decades, that will change fast
-Elections are won by winning states, not the poplar vote. Since California is going blue anyway, it makes zero difference if the democrats win there by 1 vote or by 10 million votes.
>>67353574
Trump = AFD (the good ones)
Clinton = Merkel
Pretty sure the americans will fuck this up to, yes..
>>67353574
Clinton is going to be jailed by the FBI before the election even gets here.
Trump will be the only choice left on the ballot.
> according to /pol/
>>67353574
>Trump has little chance of winning the general election against Clinton
That's the entire point. Clinton wanted a lackey to spoil the Republican race one way or another; Trump fit the bill perfectly.
If they both win the nominations and there's ANY chance of Trump actually beating Hillary, I guarantee you he'll either drop out or flagrantly sabotage his own campaign (at the same time, cashing out on the loans he's made to his own campaign).
>>67354414
is this real?
>inb4 he hasn't even started on Hillary
Well it's a fair argument, Jeb had the bestpoll numbers before Trump started on him back when trump had under 2%
Wait until the votes aren't being spread between 4 people. Republicans are getting a massive turnout. Keep in mind that Hillary only has more votes right now because the dems have only had to spread votes between basically 2 people for months. Republicans had to spread votes between up to 8 people. Wait until trump is the nominee and those votes go to a single place. The numbers will be huge. Much bigger than what Hillary and Bernie are getting right now. The real question is the electoral college and what they will do, Hillary will find a way to bribe herself in.
>>67354653
It's possible I guess. But Hillary hasn't really started going after Trump, either.
His position will not be easy.
Trump hasnt even started on hillary yet. People forget tha jeb! Was the frontrunner in the beginning. Trump took him out with 2 simple words and sHillary has much more dirt on her than jeb!.
>>67354708
Yes it is.
>>67353574
He needs to beat Ted Cruz first.
>pre-nomination gen election polls
>>67353574
>And it shows Trump at 41 to Clinton's 47.3
That does not mean anything at this moment.
>>67354779
She tried, it got very ugly for her very quickly.
Also, Bernie supporters are still holding out hope for victory. When that is finally crushed, their bitterness against her will truly peak.
Plus there's the whole FBI think, there's a very real chance Hillary could be indited (or precipitate very public resignations from the FBI if the DOJ refuses to indite).
>>67353574
The fire has already started and it's rising in Europe too, look at yesterday German elections.
>>67354755
>Wait until the votes aren't being spread between 4 people.
This doesn't really explain it.
Both Rubio and Cruz are winning against her in general polls even now.
There are two Trumps. The relatively modest Trump, and the controversial reality TV star Trump.
In the GE, we're going to see a lot more of the first Trump.
1. Those polls are eight months out, think about what the political landscape looked like eight months ago.
2. Those are popular vote polls, they don't account for the electoral college system. As a Republican, Trump holds a significant advantage in his ability to secure states/regions like New York, the midwest, and possibly even California.
3. That is a very small gap. Six points? Come on, OP, you can't really have that little faith.
There is no certainty that Trump will or will not be our next president. We're going to see some pretty crazy shit in the next eight months though, surely.
>>67353574
100% of the polls also showed Clinton trouncing Sanders in Michigan. Look what happened.
>>67354970
>lot more of the first Trump
Saw a bit of him in the last debate. tbqh senpai i liked it
>>67354939
what happened?
>>67354939
>German elections
meaningless
Nah, she'll get indicted. And, IF trump got the nomination there is so much blood on her hands and shit in her cereal a fucking 12 year old could run a smear campaign against her.
>>67353574
>[current year]
>thinking polls are reliable
>>67355105
A single poll? Definitely not.
A poll average? That's pretty reliable.
>>67353574
>This is not an anti-trump thread. I do not dislike Trump.
Good thing you stated that, otherwise this would have been turned to a ROLL thread already.
Fuck trump btw.
That orange bitch doesn't stand a chance against a cunt like hilldog.
>>67355044
Merkel's party has faced the biggest plummet in support since WWII, and the new """"xenophobic extremist"""" right-wing part AlternativeFurDeutschland has garnered substantial support, on the way to become something FN in France
>>67354949
Still doesn't mean shit when their voters will be forced to side with trump by general election. Wait until he is the nominee brother.
>>67355221
>Wait until he is the nominee brother
Not gonna happen.
>>67354708
No. Why do you think the name is blacked out? So no one can look up the account and see that its just a throw away account made by some pol faggot.
>>67355267
shoo shoo, turkroach
>>67354949
>Both Rubio and Cruz are winning against her in general polls even now.
And getting their ass kicked by Trump.
Given that repubs aren't (yet) united behind Trump, these polls really only show that hilldog has serious electability issues
Trump is going for a high risk strategy that involves encouraging those who traditionally vote at the lowest rates , less educated people, to vote.
The fact that participation in republican primaries and caucuses has inflated so much so pared with 2012 is evidence that this strategy is working
Very possible the current polling apparatus isn't calibrated to representatively sample these low education voters who do not normally take part in the educational process.
>>67355437
It's true, but now he only has to win the vote of the Republicans. And that's much easier when you present yourself as a hardcore candidate. It works the opposite way in the general election, however.
>>67355462
That's definitely possible.
>>67355462
*the electoral process
Oops.
>>67354335
>far more republican voters than democrat voter
It's really no surprise that /pol/ is objectively wrong most of the time.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/
>>67353574
Trump's not like the other candidates. He doesn't "grow" his support in the sense that, say, Rubio might. He demolishes his opponent's support.
Just wait until Trump actually starts on her. Hillary is the establishment. She, arguably, has the most skeletons in her closet out of any current American politician. She would run circles around Rubio or Cruz with fallacies, and appeals to gibsmedats and "muh vagina" in a policy discussion with Rubio or Cruz. She won't be able to withstand a guy who has suggested Rick Perry wears glasses to make himself look smart.
And personally, let's say the GOPe doesn't support Trump, and he somehow turns away moderates and independents (He won't) and loses (He won't), I would rather lose with Trump than elect a version of Hillary Clinton that talks tough about terrorists, slightly lower taxes and abortion.
>>67355545
>It's true, but now he only has to win the vote of the Republicans. And that's much easier when you present yourself as a hardcore candidate. It works the opposite way in the general election, however.
Your right, to appeal to the middle Trump might have to do things like support Planned Parenthood, medical Marijuana, less foreign entanglements, or even be critical of the Bush administration. Trump could never pull that off.
>>67355902
Shame a third of them won't show up on election day (two thirds if it's a midterm)
>>67356165
Would /pol/ even support him if he backed shit like Planned Parenthood?
Also Clinton won't make it easy for him to tone down his campaign, he has said plenty of pretty radical stuff and all her people have to do is make a montage of that.
>>67355141
I completely agree that one of you is definitely not reliable, but I don't see how a Pole average would be any better.
>>67356359
>Support him if he backed shit like Planned Parenthood.
Abortion is literally just an opt-in eugenics program that disproportionately reduces minority reproduction rates. Why would /pol/ throw a worthwhile politician away for something like that?
>>67356460
this
>>67355545
'no'
Nobody knows who the fuck Lil' Marco is, let alone Kasich, and while Cruz has more recondition than these chucklefucks, he still has no where near the recondition of Clinton or Trump. These H2H numbers are meaningless as they're little more than not-Hilldog votes, the gen election will not turn out anything like these numbers.
>>67353574
Once trump exposes the snake that she is, she will shrivel up even more.
>>67356359
>Would /pol/ even support him if he backed shit like Planned Parenthood?
Would /pol/ support him if he didn't?
The general populace isn't going to elect someone who has pledged on spanish tv not to deport illegals
>>67356359
>Also Clinton won't make it easy for him to tone down his campaign, he has said plenty of pretty radical stuff and all her people have to do is make a montage of that.
He doesn't need to "tone down his campaign", while his policies are outside of the Establishment they're hardly radically-right.
>>67355902
It's true.
>>67356359
he does support planned parenthood. iit was brought up recently in a debate. He, like most voters, know that planned parenthood is mostly a womens health service. Hes against later term abortions, but threw support behind the 98% of funding that goes to general womens health and not abortions
>>67355151
Pay denbts
>>67353574
Trigger warning... spooky.
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRNxg-dTpPs
>>67355902
Voter turnout has been mostly Republican by far and it's only the primaries. Wait til you see the general election
>>67355462
It isn't evidence that it is working. Second-Term Years (I forget the actual name) always have lower turn out than New Election Years. Compare his numbers to McCain in 08 or Obama in 08.
I can't wait for the first Trump/Hillary debate.
She'll wish she were back in Bosnia, dodging sniper fire :^) at least that was easy compared to the carpet bombardment Trump is going to rain down on her.
