Yeah go ahead and call me a shit posting leaf. But if an intellectual among mongoloids can give me a real answer based off of statistics, that would be much appreciated.
>>66739014
Yeah, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull off a JFK.
The Democratic party is down 35%.
The Republican party is 50%.
There's a record number of people turning out just to support Trump. It's kind of a phenomenal.
I'll be really surprised if he doesn't win.
Shit posting leaf
>>66739014
Trump is leading in the republican party and the republicans have the number of votes similar to what the Democrats had in 2008 at the time, which was won by the Democrats by a landslide.
>>66739268
What's with americans and not voting?
>>66739716
too lazy
all major betting houses have Hillary as the odds on favorite still.
>>66739014
Yes. It's a long way to November and tons of stuff will happen in between, but people who think he can't are delusional.
>>66739716
>muh vote won't make a difference mentality
>>66739268
>implying us democrats havent just accepted a hillary nomination and see no point in turning out
see you in the general faggot
>>66739014
>trump is winning
hurr durr does he really have a chance?
>>66739716
>What's with americans and not voting?
Turkey has so many political parties you can always find someone you like. In the USA with only 2 major parties if you are registered to vote (especially as a registered member of a political party) if you don't vote it shows that this election's candidates were not compelling.
>>66739268
>The Democratic party is down 35%.
Because most people don't give a shit who wins between Bernie and Hillary. Just wait and see how many people will come out to vote against Trump.
THIS is the power of the silent majority.
>>66739716
In some places like Chicago they vote for you so people get discouraged and don't go.
>>66739992
Nice meme
Trump has been doing worse in each state primary than polls implied.
>>66739716
too fat.
>>66739716
high chance of getting shot too.
>>66739014
>a real answer based off of statistics
Mathematics + Jewish Trickery = Statistics
>>66740126
Who cares. All that matters is he still wins the most, which is more than the others can say.
>>66740158
>>66740196
I am very hurt by that, you fucking leaf.
>>66739926
It really doesn't though.
>>66739716
After they killed RFK people gave up on voting.
After JFK it was pretty bad, all the hope and optimism came back with RFK and after he was killed everybody just gave up.
I'm not a fan of JFK or RFK just telling you the truth turkroach.
>>66739014
of course he has a "chance". But overwhelmingly the odds are that he won't.
>>66739014
Trump is winning not only the (R) nomination but also in amount of people voting (R) over (D)
>Hurr does he stand a chance
>>66739014
Frankly, I'm the only GOP candidate with his campaign ahead of schedule. Lyin' ted and Lil' Marco are down the tubes, folks. The American people are getting smart to their nasty lies.
This is a movement folks. We will Make America Great again! Believe me
>>66739716
A lot of people just work and do their thing without paying any attention to politics. The voting numbers go up whenever something drastic happens like big wars, depression, rampant unemployment, ect.
You also get jury duty and other civic duties whenever you vote which is reasons for some people abstaining. Lot's of American's who owe money won't vote either for fear they will be discovered and feds will come after them again for old student loans.
>>66739014
see
>>66739268
And a lot of those people voting for sanders right now? Most sure as hell aren't going to vote for Hillary. They'll either abstain or cross party lines.
If you're looking for a numbers based argument, there you go. Also of not is a survey from 2 days ago that where Trump beats Clinton in a head to head vote in Florida. Strangely that hasn't gained any traction in the media.
If you want to look beyond the numbers....
If Trump is the nominee then the most likely scenario is the GOP admits defeat and tries to work with him as best as they can. That means that instead of having the ENTIRE establishment and the ENTIRE media against him the amount of negative press decreases significantly and then something crazy happens.... Positive press for Trump .
Now regardless on his course of action with the nomination he will lose SOME of the republican voters, much in the same way hillary will lose sanders voters. However these guys won't cross party lines and will be far fewer in number absenting because they DESPERATELY want the liberals OUT of the white house.
Then you look at the debates. Trump will bring up decades worth of dirt on Hillary, Bill, The Clinton foundation, and thanks to her being secretary of state he can even lump in some of Obama's trash as well for good measure. It's the Clinton-centric stuff that will be important though. A LOT of people would have never heard of even half of the scandals because EVERYONE in the democratic party and liberal media has covered for them for DECADES. The republicans have never gone too hard either, mostly because of the Clinton Foundation which opens up a whole 'establishment corruption' can of worms they don't want.
>>66741067
CONT...
But there will be enough other stuff brought up, and brought up loudly, bluntly and with passion by Trump, that the republican aligned media will finally have their chance to lay into her, as so many ahve been itching to do. And then what happens? Everyone else defends Hillary. In fact they will defend her too much, they will lash out at trump. And most of the people sitting at home will realise this. They KNOW the media lies to them, they know the establishment is corrupt, and here stands a loud man that professes his love for the american people, regardless of their gender or skin colour. A man that has DONE things his entire life. Not sat in a public position and TALKED about doing things, but actually ACCOMPLISHED great things. They will also see him as a man that is NOT bought and paid for by the establishment. The republicans and republican aligned media have seen to that perception already.
And then if you want even more things to come into play, we have these crazy crazy things. Policies. trump has been shy as hell about them. Too often the media has attacked him for not HAVING policieis instead of attacking him on the DETAILS of the policies.
But had them the whole time he has. His websites, his books, the speeches and interview he's made over the decades. And suddenly the media, or a part thereof will show that too. He'll even talk about his much more moderate or even liberal policies, which he's been mostly silent about, because the Republicans have been content to attack his CHARACTER and paint him as having NO policies at all.
My prediction if things go this way. Record low democrat voter turnout. High, but not necessarily record high republican turnout. An unprecedented amount of independent votes all going to Trump, as well as a whole heap of democratic votes. Landslide.
Food for thought. eager to hear criticisms and opinions.
>>66739014
>Does trump really have a chance to win?
No.
>>66739014
To be frank, he's winning overwhelmingly. The Republicans are in full damage control over this, and the Democrats just aren't talking about it, but Trump has brought in a HUGE crowd of new voters. Just look at turnout so far for him compared to Shillary or Bernie.
>>66739014
If he wins Ohio and Florida, he'll probably make it to the convention with enough delegates to win on the first vote.
If he loses Ohio and/or Florida, he'll probably still have the most delegates but he won't have enough delegates to win on the first vote. For the second vote, pledged delegates become unpledged delegates, so Trump will instantly go from having the support of the most delegates to having the support of no delegates. Yes, the Republican party establishment really will do this. They've come out swinging HARD to push for the brokered convention. This really is their plan.
>>66739268
>There's a record number of people turning out just to support Trump. It's kind of a phenomenal.
This isn't even remotely true. There are a record number of people turning out, and some of those support Trump and some of them fucking hate him. Trump is a very divisive figure. If he wins, a lot of people aren't going to vote for him in the general. And if he loses (because brokered convention bullsiht), a lot of people aren't going to support the establishment puppet that replaces him in the general (nor should they, that's fucking shady and if the Republican party is going to try that they deserve to burn).
I think moderate not-Trumps are more electable in the general, but at this point putting forward a not-Trump requires the party to engineer a brokered convention to tell their own voters to go fuck themselves, so not-Trump means insanely low turnout and the probable death of the Republican party. At this point the smartest move really is to just bite the bullet and get behind Trump, but they obviously aren't going to do that. He's an anti-establishment figure; his existence is a threat to their entire infrastructure. They can't bite that bullet. It's the difference between losing an election and losing their entire career. They'll lose the election.
>>66739716
its rigged so why bother
>>66739014
A philosopher, a scientist, and a statistician are at the archery range: Three arrows are shot at one target. The first arrow lands in the bushes behind the stand. The second arrow falls short and lands in the grass. The third arrow hits the edge of the paper the target is drawn on. The marksman says "sorry, eh, I'm out of practice", the philosopher says "yes, you missed", the scientist says "you almost hit the target", and the statistician exclaims "we hit the target!". As a philosopher I believe Trump will win on his use of game theory alone. Whether or not he's aware that he's using it or not is another argument entirely, but this guy is playing the game like no one before him.
not a chance. the gop & the establishment are already gearing up to C U C K THE S H I T out of trump. brokered convention, romney being the presiding nominee will re-nominate himself. the gop would rather throw the WH away potentially to Clinton than have trump win
>>66739988
None of the Bernie people, since they're underage. Fewer still of the regular people since they've had eight years of Obama and nothing to show for it.
We're going to smash your teeth out, Lefty. You're going to sit there and smile for me, and I'm going to make your bicuspids into a pair of earings.
>>66741845
so are you going to vote when it is Romney or Cruz?
BECAUSE THERE'S NO CHANCE IN HELL trump survives THE C U C K action he's about to get by the GOP/DNC
C U C K E D
U
C
K
E
D
Another 'no' guess here. Remember these are the primary elections we're talking about here - not necessarily predictive of what happens in the general election.
All the polls for the nation show Trump with massive unfavorability, and in the general the Democrats will absolutely BURY Trump with reasons you'd have to be a fool to vote for him - the NeverTrump folks already have enough to convince sane Repubs not to vote for him, but add in the criticism from the other side and he'll be reduced to the votes of the poorly educated and people who Just Want To See The World Burn.
>>66741600
I'm convinced his gut intuition is simply amazing.
Long term planning, allowing himself multiple outs while trapping opponents in abd positions, working a freindly/neutral crowd. He's amazing at it.
Unfortunately he does seem to lack a plan B when his gut fails. The debates are symptomatic of that. One attacker? Easy. Two? Can do. 4, the guys asking questions, and the crowd attacking him while also having almost all the attention on him for the entire duration? Gut instinct can't cut it, and I think we've seen that.
A hypothetical one on one debate with Clinton, somewhat neutral moderators, and a crowd that isn't 90% against him will work much more in his favour. I just REALLY hope he has learnt from these last few debates that he does have drastic scope for improvement, and the tactics he could use in the larger scale debates can also help him in the one on ones.
>>66739716
I'm 32 and been voting since I was 18. I hardly ever see a candidate that I like with a R or D next to their name, and I don't really ascribe to voting against the lesser of two evils. I usually throw away my vote on the independent candidate or libertarian. Many people won't even go third choice and just say 'fuck it'.
>>66742681
Voting for the lesser of two evils*
Time for this grandpa to take a nap.
>>66739014
He's got zero chance.
He needed to have more than half of the total delegates.
They will go to a brokered convention and appoint Rubio, Cruz or even Romney.
The fall out is going to be spectacular though, for a couple of months.
Good chance you'll see a three party system in the U.S. in your lifetime.
If by some unholy fluke he gets the nomination (he won't), he will get destroyed by Hillary. They will pull out all stops. Every media outlet, every information PROVIDER (facebook, google, your fucking cable company) are going to do every single thing they can to ruin him and they will 100% go as far as vote rigging.
They will lie through the teeth. They will have BLM protesters attacking voters in the streets.
Mark my words, it will be a shit storm, and he'll lose by a narrow margin regardless.
>>66741600
nice mug
>>66739014
Trump has a very good chance
If he wins he will Make America Great Again
But even if he loses your PM is still a cuck
>>66739014
>intellectual among mongoloids
That's some extreme narcissism right there. Apologize immediately!
>>66739268
I'm pretty sure the record turnouts comes from conservative and republican voters trying to stop Trump. Everyone knows Hillary is going to win anyway so theres no point in turning out to vote.
>>66742998
>Good chance you'll see a three party system in the U.S. in your lifetime.
No you won't. The reason we have a two-party system is because our system cannot support a third major party. Because we have first-past-the-post voting, you win elections in the U.S. by consolidating as many voting blocs as possible. If you split your coalition, then you go from a viable competitor to losing every single election.
I mean, imagine what happens if Trump actually runs independent/third-party. Then Trump and [insert generic estasblishment sockpuppet here] are competing over the same voters, but the Democrats are united. So the Democrats just win. We might have a third major party for a couple years, but it won't last - we'll redraw the political landscape into two new major parties, because that is what you have to do to win elections in our system.
Our founding fathers figured this out (while simultaneously warning against the dangers of political parties) by the second presidential election. By the fourth presidential election, every single member of the electoral college belonged to one of the two major parties of the time - and they voted in lockstep with their party interests. I really wish instead of warning us about how political parties are dangerous, they'd listened to their own fucking advice and fixed the system before leaving us with this clusterfuck.
>>66742998
You've forgotten who has played the media like a fiddle throughout this season brother, it has been our god emperor Trump
