I remember a decade ago, most people were convinced that oil was going to run out within a few decades, economists were justifying the high prices on this fact.. Now most think peak oil wont happen for another few decades as a result of the shale oil/gas revolution. Can someome give me the redpill
>>66616587
bump
We've discovered many more wells and have other techniques for extracting oil. However, if all of the shale and arctic circle oil is extracted and used we'll severely exacerbate the climate crisis
>>66616587
My old man used to work for an oil company in the middle east back in the 90's. Some of his co-workers were geologists who would do surveys on the oil fields, they reckoned at the time they had approx. 50 years worth of oil.
That said OPEC does not publish exact figures nor do the OPEC members always report their own figures correctly, so the truth is nobody really knows for sure. There are too many different competing agendas in play.
>>66616587
It was quietly accepted as fact, and now we have about 40-50 years left of oil.
Nobody talks about it, but behind the scenes China started stockpiling crude, shale oil started being produced in America, and worldwide solar and wind is getting a big push by all governments.
The idea is to transition away from petrol cars and plastics, and into meta-polymers and electricity.
>>66616587
know that the spike in oil prices from 2003-2015 were artificially created by the OPEC cartel, for one thing. then we look at how reserves are actually computed.
oil reserves are computed by looking at known petroleum deposits, and selecting from them those that are "economically producible", or those from which an oil company can make money from producing based on the prevailing price of oil and the near-term price of oil.
So the very nature of this calculation "hides" what oil reserves exist when there is a higher prevailing price of oil.
when the easy to produce deposits run low, or a cartel reduces supply, and the price increases, suddenly petroleum deposits that were considered to be "uneconomical to produce" can make money, so people go after them. Invariably, these deposits are more difficult to go after, so innovation in production technology takes place as companies attempt to capitalize on them.
At the end of the cycle, either technology advances increase the amount of petroleum deposits considered reserve, the cartel stops mucking with supply, or some combination of the two, and the price falls to a dramatic new equilibrium.
that's it in a nutshell. There's tons of oil and petroleum products yet to be found, and in the long run most petroleum products will remain in-ground because alternative technologies will make oil exploration superfluous in the future.
I'm wondering when we start deep sea drilling for oil. Only what, a low energy 5% explored? There has to be a fuckton of oil under all that water. We won't run out of oil for a very long time if we can find ways to tap it.
For you.
I'm a third year student in geological engineering. This is me trying to recreate what the prof briefly told us about peak oil.
>>66619385
redpill me on Opec would you? thats their deal and why would they inflate oil prices? literally just to make more money? wouldnt that make for an increased push for fuel economy and therefore they sell less, until people start wanting alternate fuel sources, shit like electric and hydrogen cars? seems to me like if they want money and business, keeping oil low is better because then car culture flourishes and people (speaking mostly Americans here) can afford to buy a car that guzzles a bit, instead of going for the horribly emasculated affordable electric options out there
>>66616587
Peak oil might happen eventually, but chances are the price of energy is going to keep going down until it's essentially free in the developed nations.
>>66619173
>what is shale oil
Peak oil will happen if we keep using oil. It's a finite resource that takes millions of years to replace. If we use all of the oil remaining in the ground, our climate is fucked, and if we don't use it our economy is fucked. The best way to get off oil is to replace our grid with renewables, and use electric for all personal transport, and only use oil for shipping. We could maybe stretch our oil supply to 100 years and try to come up with better solutions in that time
>>66622247
could always invest in trying to make synthetic oil or something cant we?
>>66622440
Probably used for plastics & other stuff, but for energy it would be extremely expensive, because energy production requires vast quantities of oil.
>>66616587
Turns out there was actually a lot more oil in places that no one knew about at the time.
Abiotic
>>66616587
we have found so much oil in the world in the last 15 years we will not run out of oil before everyone alive at this moment on earth dies
>>66620340
>electric cars
>coal fired power plants
>somehow smarter than just using gas
>>66616587
Peak oil is just something leftist and what ever ignorant people they can convince like to to shill.
It sounds reasonable enough
>>66619385
Understands the situation.
Don't forget resources are not finite, they are 'non-finite' (this doesn't mean infinite). This is why long term resources always get cheaper.
>>66624438
that's nice, but Peak Oil, like Overpopulation, isn't about the raw numbers. Its about the societal effects.
For example, at $5 a gallon for gas the US economy starts to heavily contract. Does this show we're running out of oil? Not particularly. It does show, however, that economical oil is likely a thing of the past. And when people realize that, it could very well start a depression
My geologist professor explained it like this.
>In past fracking was considered not worth it.
>New tech comes around.
>Now fracking is easy and cheap.
>Turns out North Dakota has lots of shale.
>Frack the shit outta it.
>Booya fresh oil ready for market.
Oil is abiotic, it doesn't come from dead dino's or algae. The stupid Arabs can't help but pump the shit out because unfortunately it pools under their stinking sandaled feet.
>>66621866
>shale oil
it's a way to extend the rising global consumption of oil by another decade.
>>66621509
For starters, crude oil doesn't just end up in your average joe's fuel tank. Entire industries rely on it.
Secondly, yes it's just to make money, but it's a very delicate balancing act. The reason that OPEC use to be such hot shit was because their oil was so easy to get to. But, once oil got to a certain price, suddenly oil that was a little harder to get to became economically viable. Now they're flooding the market to drive the oil price back down so that those sources are no longer economically viable, and the companies that invested in them will go out of business.
Unfortunately for them, the pandora's box has pretty much been opened, and they'll never be able to truly get rid of the fracking industry. Oil prices will eventually start to rise again, but it'll be a while before it gets back to what it once was.
>>66624748
Almost 50% is used for transportation though.
>>66624690
If that's so it regenerates too slowly to do us any good.
>>66624644
But we already experienced what happens when prices rise, exploration increased as did new ways of extracting oil and new sources where found. The high price also meant that known resources became economical so the price came down massively.
>>66624888
wasn't there already oil synthesizing bacteria around/being researched?
>>66625016
We can turn algae into oil. But it's way more efficient to go slurp up some of the concentrated stuff in the Earth.
>>66625016
We can make oil that's easy, it's making it so it's not 100s of times more expensive than getting it out of the ground.
>>66625333
Necessity breeds innovation, as they say.
>>66616587
>Can someome give me the redpill
Most people are too damn lazy to do any research. If they even try they latch onto the first piece of info they think answers their questions rather than continuing to dig (no pun intended).
The few people who bother to look up numbers usually stop at the proven reserve estimates and run around yelling "we're going to run out!" They don't understand that a proven reserve is pretty much guaranteed to yield X barrels at current market prices because if a company over estimates its proven reserves it can get in legal trouble. Stock prices are judged by shit like that, so proving a reserve is time consuming and expensive. They don't bother verifying reserves beyond 5-10 years of supply.
Total estimated resources are far larger, and even that only includes what we've managed to find.
I would peg U.S. oil/oil shale at >100 years worth, and that may be a severe underestimate. Coal can be converted to any liquid hydrocarbon, and the U.S. has 3-5 centuries worth of that easy. And no one has the faintest fucking clue what lies on the ocean floor or in Antarctica.
Peak oil is a fine theory that's also irrelevant. Why? Because we already know that it's possible to crack CO2 in the atmosphere to get the carbon and produce any hydrocarbon we want. It's energy intensive and expensive so we're not doing it now. But in 50 years? 100? It can be done economically with solar, fission, fusion, and a few advances in tech.
Oil will never peak because most of the oil, coal, natural gas, and coal on Earth (all interchangeable) will never be recovered. Sooner or later we will simply produce our hydrocarbons literally from the air.
Here's the redpill: oil comes from dead shit. Wherever you'd find living shit 50 million years ago, today you'll find oil. So oil is really everywhere.
The definition of "oil reserves" is actually what can be easily extracted. As technology improves, new reserves will become available.
We will never run out of oil.
>>66626492
not true at all, anon.
most current oil reserves were formed by microscopic algae settling to the bottom of shallow seas, which were more numerous than today because there was no ice. The warmer water also made it anoxic, which kept the algae from decomposing.
if oil was everywhere, then it would actually be everywhere you dumbass
>>66624650
>oil price goes down
>fracking companies have to operate at a loss
>stocks go down
>companies have to keep drilling to keep up with demand
>operate at more and more of a loss
probably going to see tight oil production crash in the next few years. thanks Saudi Arabia
>>66626492
>We will never run out of oil.
Only because it will become expensive enough that alternatives are worth using
>>66616587
>Red pill me on peak oil
People who think we could ever run out of oil are fucking morons.
Your welcome.
>>66616587
Oil is technically a finite resource. However, if you consider that we get increasingly more efficient with oil consumption and that we keep finding new oil reserves and new ways to tap into previously unaccessible oil, peak oil gets constantly delayed.
By the time peak oil would actually be a thing, technology will have improved to the point that peak oil won't even be a problem
>>66616587
We're already at plateau oil.
>>66627575
Well we can't 'run out' in the way most people mean it in everyday use. Oil is not in a giant bucket with a hole at the bottom.
The price can rise to the extent that it's not worth extracting, so we have 'run out', but then we figure out a cheaper way to get it and we suddenly haven't run out.
>>66627575
>>66627583
peak oil isn't about running out. it's about the rate of production which has already peaked for crude oil. shale oil peak is going to come sooner precesily because of better technology
>>66627706
But under a microscope it will look like a series of steep peaks and valleys. On a macro level though the overall trend is flat.
Peak Oil is nonsense. See Fischer-Tropsch process
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process
Basically peak oil is a false choice in reducing our oil use by saying conventionally easy methods of oil production are the only yardstick to measure output. We will never run out of oil, at least while we can live on this planet. We still outta cut down on use but this line of argumenPeak Oil is nonsense. See Fischer-Tropsch process
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process
Basically peak oil is a false choice in reducing our oil use by saying conventionally easy methods of oil production are the only yardstick to measure output. We still outta cut down on use but this theory is moot.
>>66628203
>We still outta cut down on use but this theory is moot.
It's an observable fact by now. Shale oil production will have a steeper decline because of how efficiently it's being extract.
>>66628454
extracted*
There is no such thing as oil, think about it. Does the way oil forms even make any sense? No. Oil is a fake non-resource invented by the capitalist nations to use as an excuse to feed their imperialist desires and war economies at the cost of the blood of innocent and peaceful peoples. Oil is a lie so Muslims can Die.
#SMASHCAPITALISM #IAMTHE99% #IslamicSocialistsForSocialJustice #PalestinenotIsrael
#Lufft
Ok I get how we shoudlnt run out of oi because of technology imprvoing for extracting and old reservers becoming suitabe again, but, realistically we have enough oil till 2150?
>>66625900
>accidentally starve all the plants and cause an ice age by consuming all of the carbon in the air
>>66629215
desu, senpai this would be an excellent story for some book.
>>66620340
> electric cars just work without oil
>>66622247
>renewables
I think you misspelled nuclear.
>>66624962
God damn you are so retarded.
That can't go on for ever.
There is a finite amount of that shit in the earth.
At some point it will be finished.
Probably not for more than a hundred years, maybe 200.
But at some point it will run out.
You sound like those idiots saying the trees would never run out back in the good old ship building days.
>>66630193
Nothing wrong with nuclear, but it's unrenewable and not a long-term solution.
>>66625900
This is the most accurate post.
>>66625102
>We can turn algae into oil
I'm far from an expert on the subject, but given the 2nd law of thermodynamics, wouldn't you get more energy from processing the algae directly?
>>66630334
Depends on what you consider long term.
>>66626492
>Here's the redpill: oil comes from dead shit. Wherever you'd find living shit 50 million years ago, today you'll find oil. So oil is really everywhere.
You can't just pick a random spot, drill, and find oil. It's only retained in certain types of formations, and oftentimes there isn't enough concentrated in one spot to make a profit after the insane cost of drilling.
>>66616587
It will obviously happen since oil is a finite resource. But its hard to say when it happens since they are constantly finding new wells.
I think we will just get better and better and cheaper electric cars while the price of oil just keep going up to the point that the last oil isn't even extracted since it is no longer economically viable.
Oil is endless, it is a excretion from a proces that happens in the Earth core
>>66631621
http://www.forbes.com/2008/11/13/abiotic-oil-supply-energenius08-biz-cz_rl_1113abiotic.html
many nations have overstated their total reserves to justify increased pumping in the present
see the links on the wikipedia article; I'm too tired/lazy right now to be arsed to find them
>>66616587
By the time we run out of oil humans will be building McDonalds on the moon
Only edgy Australian teenagers think it's an issue
>>66622440
>trying
Nigga they doin' it already
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process
http://www.zmescience.com/research/us-navy-synthetic-jet-fuel-seawater-0423432/
http://www.pennzoil.com/press/first-of-its-kind-synthetic-motor-oil-made-from-natural-gas/
Petroleum's still cheaper as a fuel, though. In fact I'd argue that's actually the main driving factor for when peak oil will happen - when petroleum's scarcity and cost of extraction finally exceeds in earnest the cost of some other alt-fuel (bearing in mind that "cost" in this context includes all costs and factors, both real and perceived, that may affect society's choices from a policy and consumer standpoint), THEN we'll hit peak petroleum.
>>66630324
Trust me, the moment we actually run out of oil and gas, we will miraculously 'discover' some other shit. Be it hidrogen, fusion, solar, fart or whatnot.
>who is E.T. Whittaker
we had ideas 110 years ago, alas, moneyz.
not going to happen, world will eventually agree to binding CO2 targets, this will put enough constraints on oil consumption to avoid peak scenarios. Even without these targets peak oil is unlikely because large amount of undiscovered, unconventional, and not fully played fields exist. The world is swimming in oil
