>Cruz Shills on suicide watch
All right, let's break down the Republican math, since the mainstream media appears determined to avoid analyzing the numbers in any manner that is even remotely relevant to future events. According to the latest reports on CNN, Trump has 385 delegates and Cruz has 298.
There are the following delegates up for grabs in the next 10 days. The next seven "states" are proportional:
23 PR
19 HI
32 ID
59 MI
40 MS
69 IL
19 DC
271 total
Let's be conservative and give both Trump and Cruz a minimum of 40 percent of the delegates apiece, or 108. (On Saturday, the day of his big "loss" to Cruz, Cruz took 57 percent and Trump took 44 percent). Now the score is: Trump 493 and Cruz 406. Next comes the big showdown on March 15, winner-takes-all for three states and one territory.
52 MO
99 FL
66 OH
09 (Northern Marianas)
If Trump takes all four, which is currently more likely than not, thhis minimum expected delegate count to 719. Trump will then only need 518 more, 193 of which he can expect to get in a worst-case proportional distribution. (Remember, he can reasonably anticipate more than 108 we assigned him from the 271 available proportional-state delegates; based on the polls, 162 would be a more reasonable estimate.) So, that means to clinch the nomination, he will need somewhere between 271 and 325 delegates from the 606 that remain in the winner-takes-all states, 172 of which are in California.
TL;DR: If Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California, plus one state from the following list (Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Wisconsin), he wins the nomination. Period. Nothing else matters.
>>66478757
I just want to know when Washington state's is, and if I have to be registered as a republican to vote.
He very well might get the nomination, and that would make me very happy. But he won't be president. Hillary is going to win because of minorities, women and millennials.
>>66479032
May 24th and yes.
>>66479129
All who have record low turn outs just like 2010 and 2014 historical blow outs for the Dems
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/05/politics/midterm-historic-firsts-new-congress/
Even a Wall Street/establishment cuck like Romney pushed Obama to a tight 51/47%, Trump can certainnly push his successor over the edge
What are polls like in OH and MO? Anyone have the numbers (I'm on mobile)? Isn't OH a Kasich gimmie state?
>>66479032
Washington is May 25 and it's a closed primary.
>>66479749
*24
>>66479535
Presidential elections are different. They'll get the voters out.
Just like 2008, and 2012.
>>66479129
The head to heads are very close and Trump can erode her support better than she can erode his.
Florida is gonna be tough as our primary sheets have like 80 candidates on them with Trump right at the bottom and Bushy Bush right on top.
>>66479457
>>66479749
Thanks. Guess I'll have plenty of time to switch.
>>66479610
From MO,
Live in Texas now,
People are sick of BLM and the left, people are rallying around cops and the 2nd amendment.
Should be good trump territory
>>66480018
He should change his name to Drumpf
>>66480115
Would love to see what the left's reaction to that would be.
>>66478757
what about north carolina?
>>66480002
She doesn't need his supporters to win.
>>66480018
Any idea what the Cubans will want? Are they all Trump or more Rubio since he is a Cuban?
>>66479610
trump leads in MO. OH is all over the place.
>>66478757
MAKE DONALD DRUMPF AGAIN!
>>66478757
i havent heard any polls or anything from Commiefornia. How is he projected to do there?
>>66480359
Trump doesn't need her supporters either.
The number of undecideds in the head to head polls ranges from 11-23%. Trump hasn't even started on her. Low energy, Little Marco. Once he singles out a point of attack he eventually denigrates everyone
>>66480384
California's primary is tied with 4 other states for LAST in the nation: June 7. It's highly likely the nominee will be picked before then, but if he isn't the last CA poll (January) had Cruz over Trump by 2 points
>>66480384
There's no recent polls for Commiefornia but it's not looking good. Cruz topped the last one back in January but there were still 9 candidates
Make 'Merica great again!
It's good the establicucks and sjws are getting all the over the top Hitler stuff out of their systems before the nomination.
