So is Trump projected to win the nomination? He has 391 delegates so far and if Rubot doesn't drop out until Florida then Trump will likely win the winner-take-all states in march 15 which amounts to 292 delegates.
And lets assume he gets half of the total proportional delegates throughout march 8,12 and 15, amounting to about 120. This comes to a total of 803 delegates, about 434 short of the nomination target of 1,237.
.
After Rubot inevitably drops out when he loses his own state on march 15, it will then be a mostly winner takes all arms race between Rato, who should have about 400-500 if we again assume best case scenario until march 15, and Trump who just needs less than 500 to win.
Can Trump snatch the remaining delegates needed for the nom after march 15 or will Rato take advantage or Rubots loss?
No, he's not going to win. Ted Cruz is now the favourite.
>>66422230
fag
>>66422100
After yesterday, the only remaining caucuses are on shitty meaningless islands and Montana in June, which are worth fuck-all delegates. Cruz has exceeded expectations in caucuses because his supporters have bullied people at the caucus sites. The one caucus where ballots were used was Nevada, in which Trump won by a landslide. I'd expect Cruz to fade here as the establishment shifts its support back to Rubio and Kasich. This is why March 15th is so important, second only to the general election in terms of important days this campaign. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, it's over. Rubio and Kasich will have no reasonable defence for still being in the race, and Trump will sweep the board and comfortably get the delegates he needs. If he loses both, we're heading to a brokered convention. If he wins one and not the other, expect the loser to drop out and endorse the other establishment candidate to be their final hope.
>>66422581
wait if Rubio and Kasich drop out then won't that be better for Cruz? Or will Trump cuck them out like he did with Yeb voters?
>>66423051
Candidates dropping out hasn't hurt him before. Also, imagine if it was Trump vs Cruz after March 15th. Trump is:
>higher in the polls (so can claim to be electable)
>more moderate (except on issues that matter, Cruz can pull his "muh New York values" shit but how will that work when they actually vote?)
>generally more human and nicer to be around
>willing to make deals, so the RNC will eventually cut their losses
Cruz doesn't stand a chance.
>>66423354
The establishment (which means democrats/Media and republican insiders) are in a war or campaign against Trump. They will steal the nomination from him at the convention using dirty tricks and backroom deals, and they don't care how the people voted.
He was barely on track before Super Sunday, might be close now.
>>66424110
When Trump loses out at the convention half his supporters simply go away and the other half come home to the party.
Trumps road ( as well as everybody else) road to 1237 is harder very day.It is going t be a brokered convention and the establishment will win.
>>66425517
You mean lose the entire election if they fuck with trumps nomination lol
the republican party can play ball or they will never win another election again m8
>>66422100
As of right now Trump is on pace for the nomination, Cruz and Rubio are way behind. If Cruz was to have a chance he had to do a lot better in the Deep South states that Trump already won. Rubio wasn't expected to do well in the states up to this point, but he had to be competitive and pick up more delegates than he has. Because he isn't being competitive, his campaign is on life support and all signs are pointing to him losing Florida and dropping out after. The evangelical states and caucuses are pretty much done with which are Cruz's strongest states. It's all downhill from here for Ted. That's why he is so desperately begging Marco and Kasich to drop, he knows he can't compete with Trump in the upcoming states that are primary format and don't have many Evangelicals. Kasich is simply trying to play spoiler in Ohio. He has no path. I don't think Ohio is a must win for Trump, Florida will be because he can finally knock out Rubio for good. If Kasich wins Ohio it will only keep him in longer and keep the Anti-Trump vote split longer.
>>66428038
Good analysis makes sense.
>>66422230
Showing your true colors hey canuck? Always reverts back to the tribe. You protect your own.
>>66428038
Winning either Florida or Ohio wins Trump the nomination. Winning both? There won't even be a question in the most rabid Anti-Trump voter's mind.
>>66422100
Cruz did pretty damn well yesterday and Trump got Stumped in the most recent debate. If Kasich wins Ohio, and either Kasich/Rubio gets 1-2 more states, I think we could be headed for a brokered convention.
who /write in trump/ here
>>66428948
NO m8 if trump wins Florida its over.
>>66422100
SHILLS ASIDE, HERE ARE THE OBJECTIVE, INDISPUTABLE FACTS:
Did Trump under-perform last night? YES, but by that, meaning he didn't OVER-PERFORM as much as expected. He's still over 100% on the path to the nomination.
Did Cruz OVER-perform? NO. He's only 67% of the way there.
What now? Primaries, which heavily have favored Trump, are what follow now in areas Cruz has no chance in. There are a few caucuses left, but have very few delegates.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
No matter what the shills say, these are the facts.
>>66422100
Absolutely and without much difficulty. Trump's gonna get a YUUUUUUGE surge due to switching to primaries and away from cockuses, which have been causing Trump to "merely" be ahead of schedule and Cruz to be behind schedule.
Expect an endless parade of drooling, moronic analysts to go "OMG! THIS IS TOTALLY UNEXPECTED? WHAT WAS IT? WAS IT HIS STRONG PERFORMANCE AT THAT DEBATE? IS IT KKK JUICE IN THE NATZEE WATER?" because they don't understand caucuses.
>>66429111
>projections based on months old 5 way race polls
>>66422581
>>66423354
Top quality posting m8.
>>66428038
>>66429111
Also, I advise this or something along these lines be posted near the top of TrumpGens, as to make the shills look even more pathetic. Simply point them to the op and move on.
>>66429274
538 uses a weighted average based on age of the polls and the number of people polled. Maybe other factors that I don't know about. In b4 nate silver is a jew.
>>66427370
They'd rather have Hillary than for 4 years than Trump. After that idk what will happen to the party, but you can be sure if Trump gets the nomination they'll be against him in the generals just as hard as the Democratic party.
They'll spin it with commercials that neither side trusts him and it will be a the largest and most expensive marketing test to see how much you can affect someone with advertising dollars.
He's a fucking rat, of course he is going to take advantage of anything he can.
These cunts have been stabbing the front runner in the back since day once.
>>66429665
You mean they rather not have jobs or Rs next to their name when they do that?
sorry m8 they know this either trump gets his way and fails or the party dies this year. Your delusional if you think they will let that happen kek
>>66429665
>to see how much you can affect someone with advertising dollars.
obviously not well since trumps whole campaign is leading the people against he media and winning lol
this is another advanced form of le nervous man lol
>>66422230
Nobody likes Rato besides subhuman bible thumpers. You might as well vote for Hillary because he sure as fuck can't win.
>>66422581
Trump is far ahead in Florida polls but Kasich seems to be ahead in Ohio, which he's apparently going to stay in the race just to win that one state and fuck everything up even though he has no chance of winning the nomination
>>66422581
h-he can't lose both, right? florid he has a double digit lead. ohio is close tho.
kasić only hope is winning ohio but even then i dont get what he wants to do, secure veep position?
>>66422230
I have seen weak leafs like you crumble into my feet with weeping tears of a saint mary forgiveness only to stroke my sex shaft into your eyes, burning vision blurred by my fertility and virility, a sex gravy you do not deserve to be blessed with, but I grant unto you. I relese my cock wand and raise my sword to behead, but you are so weak and miserable i leave you to the rats of toronto, for muslim swine will sweep you away, too weak to keep out the desert rats that violently burn your society to the ground. no, death would be a blessing unto you. the vision of your fertilized tears leaves me with satisfaction.
>>66429111
>What now? Primaries, which heavily have favored Trump,
Aren't they mostly closed, though? I think I read that Ohio was the only significant open vote remaining? Trump seems to rely heavily upon non-registered voters, i.e. independents and converts, which bodes well for the election but not for the primary.
>>66430871
Everyone else does worse than trump in primaries is all you have to worry about.
>>66422230
Stop this shitposting at once
>>66430515
quality post
how long have you been a gay?
>>66422581
So you're saying Trump supporters are such pussies that they can be bullied into changing their votes? Sounds like Cruz's supporters are the real nimble-navigators
>>66430392
I think he was thinking that if Rubio dropped out, Kasich could pick up Ohio and some other northern states. If he can get some of those, then he might be able to make a case for a brokered convention or cut a deal to get VP
It really is pretty shitty that the primaries are so distorted with the southeast having a heavy influence early on. It's put Kasich at a disadvantage, and on the Dems side it also gave Hillary a bigger lead than she should have, since she's been blowing Sanders away by 50 points in the South but either losing or barely winning the other states
>>66431256
oh yeah pasta man, you want to come down to my neighborhood on the east side of Brooklyn? We don't take to kindly to your types, and from the soundz of it you aint american, some dirty foreign type me thinks. listen, just grab your gorgonzolas, your stupid russian dolls that fit in other dolls, and hop on a boat and get the fuck outta my country. You dirty fuckin commy bastards arer stinkin the place up, and now I gotta listen to this shit? no way pal, you come down to my neighborhood and we'll show you how it is. I'll stuff a fuckin' hot dog down yer cram hole while we beat the shit out of your ribbies with miniature baseball bats. then you'll think twice about making fun of american gravy and callin us piggos
you ruskies are just the fackin worst
Frankly, I'm the only one with my campaign on schedule.. 15+ delegates ahead of schedule in fact.
Wouldn't it be great to have everything run on time, on schedule, and under-budget?
That's what we need in this country, folks.. I will make America Great Again!.. Believe me
>>66422100
Ruboto have no chance what so ever.
15 march winner-takes-all-states, Trump will probably win all of them or almost all of them according to many polls. 292 delegates is at stake.
He should get most of them, if he gets all them which he probably will, its all over.
Then he might have 1000 delegates.
>>66430471
>kasich
>kasić
>croatian heritage
snake in the grass confirmed
Cruz is going to do absolutely horrible now that caucuses are fucking OVER and that we are now entering Winner Take All territory.
Trump will win in all of the northeast bar some miracle. Maine is a very fucky state with a libertarian bend, just look at 2012 when Ron Paul caused some bootyblast there by cucking Romney at the state conventions. Also no fucking way he doesn't win the west.
Cruz just doesn't have the widespread approval to win these primaries and would be the weakest candidate in the general 2bh because he wouldn't really change the map in any way.
