PROTIP: unless Trump holds +60% of the pledged delegates going into the convention he's not going to be the Republican nominee.
Everyone thinking the bar is 50%+1 doesn't seem to realize A. over 10% of delegates on the first ballot will be unbound* and B. all the delegates - including "Trump's delegates" - are party insiders not chosen by the state machines, and few could be expected to stick with Trump once they're no longer legally obligated to. Most will be free to vote however they want so long as trump can't clinch +50% on the first ballot, which Point A. makes mathematically almost impossible.
*each state gets three state party leader bonus delegates, which are unbound, so that's 150. Then you have North Dakota (28 delegates), Wyoming (29), Pennsylvania (57 unbound), Colorado (37), and Guam (9) which are sending unbound delegates (i.e. they can vote how they want on the first ballot).
TL;DR: the Republicans have the deck stacked with superdelegates almost as blantantly as the Democrats. Just like Bernie, Trump would have to win some huge supermajority to overcome that, which just isn't going to happen in this reality.
PROTIP: If Trump doesn't get the nomination, enjoy another 8 years of democratic despotism.
>>66280941
If Trump is screwed over by the party, he has enough of a following to legitimately create a new party.
>>66281035
make that another year, maybe two, before shillary has us all nuked.
>>66280941
>party insiders not chosen by the state machines
That should be >party insiders CHOSEN BY the state machines
>>66281084
Too late to get on presidential ballots.
>>66280941
Doesn't matter, if they do not give Trump the nomination even though he has the most delegates they will ostracize themselves.
Trump voters wont vote for their nominee and some, if they can depending on their primary, will vote for Hillary just to spite them. They will also lose any remaining faith a large portion of the voters they have seeing as they would so blatantly take away the gold from someone who should, by all rights, have taken the nomination.
>>66280941
Trump is predicted to win all states but Kansas on Super Saturday, and he still might win Kansas.
Trump is leading the polls in Michigan, Ohio and Florida, three very important winner take all states.
You are honestly a fool if you believe Trump will not get enough delegates to win the nomination.
>>66281181
No. If that were the case, both major parties would be fucked because they haven't held their conventions yet. It's too late to get on most primary ballots but for the general election in November there's plenty of time. Thanks to the Olympics in Brazil, both parties have pushed up their conventions to not conflict. That gives Trump several extra weeks to get organized and on the ballot as an independent should he not be the Republican nominee.
>>66281252
I think the RNC would be knowingly conceding the election to Hillary if they pulled such a manoeuvre, but they don't think Trump has any chance of winning anyway, and they feel he'd do great damage to the party and its brand in the course of losing, so for them it still makes sense.
>>66281391
I haven't seen any road-maps for Trump that put him at anything close to 60% pledged of delegates. He'd be lucky still to get +50% unless the anyone-but-trump side just gives up and people start lining up behind Trump (not gonna happen).
>>66281649
There are a bunch of states that have deadlines either before or right after the Republican convention.
Also some have "sore loser" laws that'd bar Trump from an independent and/or 3rd party run because he was on the primary ballots. Actually 47 states have them in some form, but the specific rules and how they'd apply to Trump would take a team of lawyers to sort out. In the end they'd surely block him from the ballot in several more states at least.
2,472 delegates to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegate votes needed to win
1,237/2,472 = 50% + 1
Where are you getting this 60% nonsense from?
>>66280941
Trump will run as an independent is that happens and crash the GOP with no survivors. He said so to Oreilly after the debate when questioned about the "supporting the nominee" thing
>>66280941
>>66281714
>>66282151
>TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE UNEDUCATED HURRRR
>>66280941
At this rate there won't be a brokered convention. Delegates can only freely vote if nobody gets 1237 delegates from regular voting.
>>66280941
If Trump doesn't get the nomination, I'll fucking vote Hillary.
Because fuck you, GOP.
>>66281035
>implying the US will survive eight years under Hillary
Sounds like he needs to make some fuckin deals
>>66282228
The 150 state leadership delegates will likely vote against Trump to the man. That's ~6% of the delegates (150/2472).
Then you have the ~150 unbound delegates coming from the states/territories that don't bind delegates on the first ballot. Even if many of these are chosen as "Trump" delegates they'll almost all be long-standing party insiders who again will almost all do whatever it takes to stop Trump. So another ~6%.
>>66282880
The 3 state superdelegates can only vote for the winner of the state. If Trump wins they can't vote against him.
>>66282481
But remember the 150 state leadership delegates aren't up for grabs. Ditto 30-something territorial delegates which are similarly automatically earn their place by virtue of being party insiders (someone with the time could dig up the exact numbers).
So Trump isn't competing for 2472 delegates (to win his needed 50%+1), he's competing for only ~2230 of them. And likely +75 of "his" earned delegates will defect on the first ballot anyway (i.e. in states with unbound delegates, even if he wins he still loses).
>>66280941
>He thinks this won't lead to the death of the Republican party
If they try anything fishy like that, all of Trumps supporters (a consistent, solid 35%) will vote elsewhere, probably Trump as a 3rd party candidate. He will also get more votes from other potential Republicans that are turned off by this move.
The only way the GOP survives this primary, is by swallowing their pride and letting it play out. Even then, a Trump nomination either ends horribly which results in the death of the GOP and 8 years of Democrats, OR he wins and then we see what happens.
>>66283145
Shit, you're right. Apparently the rule was changed after the last convention.
I suppose that still leave the unbound delegates from the states.
Ignore this thread.
>>66284009
You still know more about US politics than 99% of Americans. Quite commendable.
>>66284009
The reason they changed that was because of Ron Paul.
If trump doesn't get the nomination after winning a clear majority, then expect a democratic president. People don't like to be told that their vote isn't worth anything.
>>66280941
None of that matters. Trump is above politics. If the Republicans want to lose another election, fine.
>>66284170
Tell that to President Gore
You're forgetting that a candidate can only be nominated if he has won at least 8 state primaries. Cruz is the closet one to that number, it's it's perfectly possible Cruz doesn't make it to 8. He'll pick up one state tomorrow, putting him at 6 state victories, and that could very well be it for him.
>>66284112
He's a marine stationed in South Korea you dweeb.
>>66280941
Why couldn't Trump win an independent run? He's getting about 35% of the republican voters, and he could probably get 15% of the democrat voters, that's 50% right there.
>>66280941
The republican party doesn't have superdelegates, it's only a democratic thing...
>>66286963
>taking anything the government tells you at face value
>>66286408
Can't be nominated period, or can't appear on the first ballot or what?
>>66287155
Here's the text:
>(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
So if I understand this, it's very likely there will be only two names on the first ballot: Trump and (assuming he clears 8) Cruz? In that case, isn't it impossible to get to a second ballot?
So for an establishment coup to be viable, wouldn't they need to ensure there are at least three candidates with at least 8 state wins going in? (i.e. they'd need to get strongly behind Rubio to get him over that line).
I can't tell from that rule if it's possible for an outsider to be drafted (with written support from a majority of 8 states now unbound delegates) on a 2nd ballot.
>>66287622
...thinking this through more, what would delegates 'bound' to vote for someone on the first ballot who doesn't appear on the ballot do? Not vote?
>>66284439
Trump is above politics kek
>>66287622
Shit, I just noticed the rules says MAJORITY (i.e. not plurality). In that case doesn't seem like anyone other than Trump could possibly appear on the ballot unless Cruz wins a whole bunch of winner-take-all states (or the other candidates drop out).
>>66286408
According to the rulebook >>66287622 you need to win a MAJORITY in 8.
So far Trump is at 5 (and should easily cross the threshold by the end) while Cruz has only one (Texas) and I really don't see how he could get to 8.
This is a good read. Thanks!
