A BIG FAT MISTAKE
/pol/'s hate for Nate is silly. At the start he said Trump has a 2% chance to win the nomination. Then he raised it to 5%. Then 10%. Then 20%. etc.
He never said Trump has no chance. And by conventional wisdom Trump didn't have a chance but it turns out conventional wisdom doesn't apply to this election. Just look at Jeb. The candidate that spent the most money and had the most party backing was completely blown the ufck out. That is without precident.
>>65832575
Nate fucked up because the whole reason he was so popular in 2012 was that he proclaimed to be above punditry and focused on the real analytics. His ego got to him and now he's just become another pundit.
>>65832575
His "Polls Plus" shilling failed to enhance accuracy in most races compared to the regular polls.
>>65832719
Where is his punditry?
>>65832799
He's been shilling Rubio the entire race without data backing it up. His refusal to accept Trump gaining a single inch until now shows he's been nearly as blindsided as the whole GOP establishment.
>>65832343
>Nate Silver
Man fuck that guy and the skewer polling his puts out.
>>65832876
But he had data to back it up. If this were a normal election, Rubio would be the frontrunner because he's the type of candidate that's usually the frontrunner: moderate, friends with the establishment, reasonably likeable.
If you're a statistician and are asked to predict something without data (something this unprecedented election cycle turned out to be), you're probably gonna look bad at times.
>>65832343
>>65832575
Nate was in denial far too deep into the cycle, literally after months of Trump dominating the polls and hard evidence that he was appealing politically to a voiceless demographic, and not just trading on his celebrity.
This is where Silver fucked up. Not by pointing out Trump's statistical defects, but by ignoring the points he was scoring as if he wasn't scoring them for way longer than he had a right to.
>>65832876
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/01/nate_silver_said_donald_trump_had_no_shot_where_did_he_go_wrong.html
>>65833345
Forgot to add that Silver claimed Trump had a better shot playing in the NBA finals than being the GOP nominee
28 pages Jews. You are named. You = fucked. The Americunts are going to hunt you down.
>>65832343
I know nothing about this guy but he looks like he lives and dies for bernie, am I right?
>>65833069
>moderate
>likeable
These aren't statistically quantifiable qualities on the electoral stage. Silver made the mistake of relying on gut feelings and conventional wisdom instead of tracking quantifiable metrics.
>>65833069
But he didn't have polling data to back Rubio up. Rubio was never ahead in the polls; if he ever was, it was an one-time anomaly very early in the race. Jeb started out near the top very early on, then Trump steamrolled about a month after his announcement. Nate wasn't relying on actual statistics to back up Rubio, it was just him being a pundit and saying that Rubio must win because he fills certain checkboxes.
>trusting Nate(aniel) Silver(stein)
>supporting unelectable Trump
that's how you'll get Hillary, godless heathens
>>65833681
Trump changed the data set. This isn't about right and left. This is a referendum on nationalism and the fact our leaders, regardless of parry, have no connection to the populace and view themselves as rulers.
>>65832575
>He never said Trump has no chance.
He gave Trump 5% chance of winning when he'd been dominating the polls for months. I understand 5% is different from 0%, but he's a statistician. He understands that anything is possible.
Nate Silver's problem was that he bought into the liberal "Trump is a joke and he'll self-destruct any minute" narrative too hard. I can't fault him after the 2012 cycle though.
Nate Silver is a mess. All of his predictions besides Obama have been completely wrong.
I wouldn't be surprised if he drops out from the face of the world once Trump becomes president.
>>65833529
9/11?
>>65833831
> implying a billionaire buffoon is connected to the populace
I'd say enjoy your own NYC Hugo Chavez president, but he's gonna be destroyed before November and no liberal or moderate will stay at home come November when stopping this cunt is at stake
>>65833681
>These aren't statistically quantifiable qualities on the electoral stage
Actually they are.
You can line up policy stances on a spectrum and get an image of how far left or right a candidate is. There are also likeability polls.
>>65833777
The thing is, historically polls back then, way before any actual votes are cast, are inaccurate. And historically, given two candidates, the more moderate one wins.
And historically, no candidate with a net unfavourability ranking like Trump has won the nomination.
It wasn't as crazy as you'd think to dismiss Trump even with his seemingly great numbers. I'm not gonna denie that personal feelings might habe played a role, but he was absolutely reasonable in rejecting Trump for most of the campaign.
>>65832575
I agree, krautbro, but most of /pol/ is statistically illiterate and doesn't understand.
>>65833069
so nate silver is basically basing his assumptions on past performance, and has no eye for the changing world and the increasing effect of social media. or the fact that more and more people are seeing through the jewishness of the entire system.
people are waking up, and it scares paid shills like nate silver.
>>65834089
His predictions for the UK elections last year were a catastrophe. It's all over for him but the fading into obscurity.
>>65833569
Whelp, nate silver IS a kike himself, who only has a job on tv because he's a kike.
>>65834701
In his defense, in most pieces on Trump he included a diclaimer along the lines of "Well maybe the conventional wisdom is true and Trump is just that one special candidate where the rules don't apply and everything I just said is wrong".
>>65834819
Virtually every single political analyist got the UK elections wrong because of faulty polls.
If your polls are false, the predictions you draw from them are false.
>>65832343
nate silver is no doubt a smart dude. But the majority of americans wont vote for trump. he's going to get rocked in november
>>65834354
It isn't even about the candidate. Trump is a voice for people who have been ignored: The angry as Hell middle class, former middle class and lower class workers that globalism ha s crippled.
Those in Washington have no connection to us and people are furious at what has been done. We are tired of cultural restrictions on free speech and being slandered and abused because of our race then being told we have no right to complain.
This isn't even about this election, this is the cultural divide in this nation coming into direct conflict, this is the modern Fay equivalent of a peasent revolt
>>65835103
Hillary Clinton's indictment next week is going to shake a lot of things up. It may be Bernie for the demons, yet.
Bernie actually has a better chance against Trump, than the vagina.
I'm generally very suspicious of, and strongly disapprove of, anyone who purports to use statistics to predict the future. First of all, it could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and that should be avoided at all costs. Second of all, regardless of whatever trends or statistics you can pull up, people will do what they do. The media should just let people do what they do instead of trying to control the narrative like this.
>>65832575
>That is without precident.
But they still have Obama.
>>65835103
Si, señor.
ITT: I hate a guy for using statistical probabilities exclusively instead of investing into a crystal ball
word up to you chumps, there is an alternate universe where Donald Trump becomes President of the United States of America - and we're in that alternate universe
>>65834701
Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. Nate is just disconnected from the vast majority of Americans and has no clue how fucking mad people are.
The government is trying to push 4.9% unemployment, that is a fucking lie. Nothing they tell us is true, they want to rule us like a n oligarchy because they assume they are better. Americans hate that shit, we were founded on escape from nobility and the idea of people in Washington being so openly in control of all avenues of control makes Americans sick.
If you make peaceful revolution impossible you make violent revolution inevitable
>listening to analysts
Hope you guys don't bet
>>65835284
Except Hillary won the popular vote. Obama got the nomination because superdelegates switched to him as he was looking more likely to win the general.
So the Clinton campaign was actually very succesful and it took until the very final for Obama to emerage victorious, in no way comparable to the disaster that was Jeb.
>>65835461
I agree, for the long term. The internet has made predictions almost impossible for the short term (~2-5 years)
>>65835563
Jeb never had a chance desu. The American people do not want another Bush, and they never did. Trump just happened to bury him quicker than he would have been buried normally.
dude is just a math guy. You can't hate on him for taking the Trump candidacy as unlikely since he didn't look good until several months into his campaign where it became clear he wasn't just a temporary frontrunner.
Granted you can and should still make fun of him for it, but virtually everyone got blown the fuck out this election cycle so there's no harm in it.
>>65835685
People got complacent and fat, then the rich sold us on Nafta and things started going wrong. Now engineers and skilled workers are being outsourced and the middle class is scared. The entire thing is caused by greed and pride, which, even as an atheist, I can see the value of religion because it restrains those natural and destructive instincts.
>>65835281
No it won't become a self-fulfilling prophecy. One side has its statistics priest, the other side has theirs. Only when the use of statistics is centralized and accepted among most participants does the self-fulfilling prophecy become true.
Nate Silver represented a sort of bi-partisan go-to guy for statistics, so I can see your complaint about self-fulfilling prophecies in regards to him. However, now there are tons of people on the internet who try to do what he does. Each side has their polls and Nate Silvers. They cancel each other out.
A real self-fulfilling prophecy would be like that website which you could buy or sell stock in certain things occurring, such as Ron Paul becoming president, or Barack Obama becoming the nominee. It was shockingly accurate and I can see why the US government essentially blocked it.
>>65835179
Good God finally somebody gets it. Looks like I'm at the right place.
It will be interesting to see if the bourgeoisie can smack down the working poor for another election. They tricked them last time with Obama, and before that with Bush and Clinton (heavy southern accents and simplified working-man attitudes on Yale Students) Bourgeoisie central aka reddit seems absolutely terrified of Trump because the establishment has no control over him.
It will be interested if he carries out his threats on the press to the extent that Putin has done. You know lots of investigations are politically motivated and in Russia they don't try and kill you, they just sue you out of existence...
>>65835220
nigga hill ain't going to get in any trouble. you kray. i t would have ahppend already
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/like-bush-many-republicans-are-moderate-on-immigration/
lol
>>65835563
>Obama got the nomination because superdelegates switched to him as he was looking more likely to win the general.
Still holding out for superdelegates to realize Bernie is more selectable than Hillary in the general based on all the polling. Trump v Sanders would be the ultimate fuck you to the powers that be (with an 11th hour Trump victory, of course)
>>65836721
The catch 22 is if you get serious on deportation, you directly damage businesses on all tiers
>>65833436
I could see Trump shooting a couple 3's
>>65836774
No. Bernie making it to the finals validates reddit's opinion too much
>>65836823
Gotta rip off the band aid at some point
>>65832343
>>65832343
I admit to not coming to /pol/ every day. With that in mind, I have no fucking idea who this person is. Somebody care to explain?
You cant stump the trump
>>65836543
I don't think so. These people aren't used to poverty and living in squalor terrifies them. We also have recourse to voting and if they lose elections they lose influence. The elite have no clue how life is for the people who elect them but uniformly people realize how bullshit this system is. It happened to the GOP first because they are the most out of touch but the dems will be facing something very similar when Hispanics and blacks realize they are deciding candidates.
Bad, bad times for liberals, both of those groups are socially liberal. Bernie may have been controlled opposition to liven up the dems primary but it really showed that their is a massive unrest in the party.
When the Latinos and blacks take over the democratic party the liberals that make up 10%,maybe, of the populace will, ironically enough, be in the spot that they used to relegate to minorities: Accepting bread crumbs because you are a slave to the party
>>65835346
This is the dankest timeline.
>>65832343
>A kike who manipulated polls to try and weaken Trump's position
You don't say
>>65835346
Actually I hate him for being a slimy kike.
>>65833184
Thank you for posting this.
>>65832343
>implying the popular vote matters to the electoral college
>>65837774
(see attached)
>>65835179
>People who can't find work move to a different place.
>That is what everyone does around the world.
>Except Americans who want everything for nothing.
When did America became communist?
>>65832575
Nah, Nate is a faggot. The final straw for me was when he had to revise his numbers and he essentially said that he hadn't been wrong but that the republican party failed to react to Trump in the appropriate manner. And it was only because of of the failures of others that his prediction (and perhaps more importantly methodology) were flawed.
>>65838129
No problem. Thanks for the (You).
>>65838340
Nice try asshole. How about this: I am not a citizen of the earth, I am an American and I expect my elected leaders to not sell me out and tell me that is is fair for people to compete against st slave labor for wages. I expect my leaders to tariff goods and watch out for America at all times.
I am not ok living like a serf, I am not ok with an oligarchy controlling all avenues of power and colluding to enrich themselves at the expense of my family and fellow countrymen.
You are a pathetic coward and sellout who has been tricked to the point that you want to flood the nation with a vast underclass of slaves to exploit because you are a fool and devoid of any sense of loyalty, camaraderie,community or morality.
>>65838340
Fugg having borders and laws and countries and shit
And you call other people Communist?
Fucking Jew
>>65838340
Americans are actually far more willing to leave their home towns that Germans or the British.
>>65835220
lmao
Obama wants Hillary to become president, there will be no indictment.
>>65832343
For those of you who don't know
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_(Taleb_book)
>>65832343
A few comments in defense of Silver:
- Donald Trump has not yet quite gone through the formality of winning the GOP nomination.
- Silver has been pretty explicit that nomination campaigns are harder to predict than general elections.
- Silver’s method of aggregating and weighing poll results in the fall of 2012 was about as good as could be done. The danger facing him was always that the polls would turn out to be wrong due to some kind of technological or social change in polling response behavior. For example, in 1936, the Literary Digest’s telephone poll turned out to be too early: people without phones were significantly more pro-FDR than people with phones. In 1996, all the pollsters except Zogby missed that the race was going to be moderately closer than they expected (for reasons that I’ve never seen well-explained, but the polling industry seemed to fix the problem by 2000, whatever the problem was).
It’s quite possible that in some future election, it will turn out that current polling techniques are disastrously outdated. But that didn’t happen in 2012.
In fact, Silver’s prediction of a 2 point Obama win turned out to be wrong by 2 points. It just happened to be on the conservativ side: Obama won by 4 points. But nobody much cared.
