when can expect panic?
when will the fire rise?
>>63687569
What jews are winning with the rapefugees genociding whites?
Negative Interest Rates when?
>>63687569
What is the End game goal of the EU? I suspect a unified European Union under one nation (with the same name).
If you are interested in the economy of the European Union.
I know less about Politics in general, but will try to answer those questions as well.
I am not working for any political party right now - not in Germany, not in Brussels - so you might as well trust me.
>>63687569
We had that thread before, Mario. It was boring.
Anyway, why is the ECB not getting anywhere close to the actual inflation targets?
Also, why in the world is the inflation target "somewhat below 2%" instead of 2-3% like in America?
>>63687617
The Brexit. Should it happen, we are expecting large difficulties with maintaining the European Union as it is.
Some say it is a good thing, but in reality, the results are unpredictable. So we are awaiting the developments in the UK with suspense.
Do the jews run everything if so, your thoughts?
>>63687569
Are you scared that a programmer will make your job superfluous in 20 years?
why is economics all theory and why are theorist in charge of making policy. The economy is not an experiment
>>63687726
should blow up with Brexit
also proof
>>63687569
Have you met Jens Weidmann?
>>63687909
Is the ECB pushing the FED to take joint action on negative interest rates? What are the arguments for brexit being a good thing? Are they coming from any group in particular within the institution?
>>63687977
No, I am not, because the profession of an economist is changing just as rapidly as technology and is adjusting to the needs of governments and companies.
By education, I am a Data Scientist. Yer, I found a job as economic advisor. I guess that proves the point I made.
>>63687569
remove kebab when?
>>63687569
Fellow economist here. Is "economic advisor" codeword for telling them what they want to hear to promote more of their shite policies.
Harry Truman said, "Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say, ‘on the one hand... on the other.'" Please don't be a one handed economist shill. Economists like that are literally as cancerous as SJWs.
How fucked is Deusche Bank?
>>63687686
You asking this questiin in the first place means that you know a thing or two about the recent economic developments.
I cannot say whether or when this will happen. Only Draghi and his closest advisors would ever know about such a decision, to prevent information leaks and following speculation.
What I can say for sure is that such a measure would not be as easy to pull off as in Japan. Japans economy is relatively regulated and homogenous. The economy in the Eurozone is not, as it includes many banking benemoths with their own interests - Switzerland is the best example.
Why QE is ineffective in EU?
Why in USA was a successful and in EU not?
>>63687828
It has to do with actual, inflation-adjusted spending willingness. Despite many sources claiming otherwise, we have
a.) A shortage of consumers due to demographic changes
b.) Very saturated housing markets in Europe, where most people own houses - I am not talking anout Germany
c.) Real wages are not as high as in the US, whilst prices may even be higher. Thus, less "all-out shopping"
>>63688414
This.
>>63688902
What's your view on the Greek bailouts? Do you think this program has any chance of success?
>>63688006
I could talk very long regarding this question, but the short answer: theory is all we have. And even if theory was wrong in 49% of the cases - which it is not - it would be still better than pure intuition, which is wrong in 50% of the cases.
Deutsche Bank is selling off hahHajahajajaha
>>63687569
Why are you destroying everything good and noble?
>>63688902
>a.) A shortage of consumers due to demographic changes
I don't see this as an obstacle to a more lose interest policy to hike inflation.
>b.) Very saturated housing markets in Europe, where most people own houses - I am not talking anout Germany
Good that you leave out Germany (I was on the Vonovia conference call today...)... but in Western Europe we have a general housing shortage in most major cities. The problem is that there is tough regulation and few ways to build affordably - also because of red tape. Plus, in America there is Fanny May and Freddie Mac - no such thing in Europe.
>c.) Real wages are not as high as in the US, whilst prices may even be higher. Thus, less "all-out shopping"
Still not a reason for the ECB to not be more deceive. The Fed has 4 trillion in assets on its books from QE. How much is it for the ECB? Has it ever reached 1 trillion?
is it common knowledge that the single currency is flawed by design without there being a fiscal union as well?
>>63687569
What are the chances DB goes kill?
>>63688650
In a brexit scenario does the ECB have the powers to shift the EU's financial centre out of Europe or would that be up to the remaining national governments? Why did the ECB insist that euro clearing houses should be located in the currency earlier this year when it hasn't yet been granted that competence? How do you think the BoE would respond?
>>63688414
I would not say that it is, well, fucked, because we saw far worse situations during the Crisis, and we saw those banks survive.
The Deutsche Bank was extremely conservative in its practices, failed to adjust properly to Globalization, yet it aimed for revenues that only the biggest players make.
Like many other traditional companies in Germany - Siemens, Opel, Bosch - it will probably take a huge blow, but keep existing in a state of everlasting "modernization", as, of course, the profiteers are unwilling to let go of models that are bound to die out soon.
I do not have much sympathy for them.
>>63687828
>Anyway, why is the ECB not getting anywhere close to the actual inflation targets?
Because the world is in a deflationary spiral and ZIRP doesnt actually target the actual issues at hand, it just delays them and distorts the equity and bond market
Did European Stability Mechanism (ESM) actually work or was it just buying time?
Also which EU economies are in a bad shape and most likely to crash?
>>63689434
Yep.
But try to convince Luxembourg to vouch for Italy's debts, for example,
>>63689556
How long before the Euro becomes a truly free floating currency freigeld style? When will the existing pricing structure for gold fail and the BundesBank reestablish a physical market?
What can you tell me about my country?
>>63687569
Is InCap Corp. gonna rocket soon?
How close are the german banks to collapse?
There was a Goldman Sachs representative on tv a while back claiming that the Euro's value would massively drop in value within a couple years. Do you think there's any truth to that?
>>63689102
It seems like some theory is accepted and others are thrown out. Who or what determines which theory to follow? and why can we not at least consider all different theory before making decisions?
>>63689102
>And even if theory was wrong in 49% of the cases - which it is not
until it is
>>63687569
but.... who was shot web?
>>63689339
There is the fear that completely lose interest policy will lead to the assumption of many markets: "This is all they can do".
If we employ a radical fiscal policy, yet the economies of Spain or Italy, for example, do not recover, that may very well lower their credit ratings even further.
As for the German housing market, it is only adjusting to the new circumstances - and not in a positive way. Investors in Germany finally understood that with declining Social Housing programmes, investing in housing is almost guaranteed to bring teh big moneiz in. That lead to highly aggressive conpanies like Vonovia - something we have never seen before.
Government regulations in housing prices are mostly populistic and actionism. They can't fight supply and demand.
If they wanted truly cheap housing, they should not have deregulated the housing market to London levels.
>>63687569
>ask me anything
can you prove that you are a not a roleplaying undergrad econ student?
What bank should I use?
>>63689918
It is beautiful!
As for the economy ... Ehm, yeah.
Your current government is imitating a fight against the EU, whilst in reality, they are compliant to austerity.
I am sure that Portugal will see stability in the next years, because the financial and governmental institutions are far more stable now. Some of the best in Europe, at least on paper.
But do not expect wonders.
What's it like propping up a corrupt system with fraud?
How do you sleep at night knowing the excessive consumption and production caused by your stupidity is raping the earth of its resources?
What's it like knowing that you're nothing more than a tool to continue crony captialism/socialism?
What's it like knowing that when the next crash happens, all you'll do is protect the big banks that caused it while the people suffer?
What's it like being a soulless drone who will rationalize an answer to every one of these questions?
>>63687569
>economic advisor for the European Central Bank in Frankfurt
That's not how it works.
>>63690931
Red-pill me on Syriza and Varoufakis.
who do you vote for?
>>63690931
>because the financial and governmental institutions are far more stable now
>>63687569
What is expected to happen in europe if there's cascading defaults on national debt among big countries like italy? What happens to the euro?
What do you think the end game to all the global QE and devaluing will be?
>>63691026
Idealists, probably not fit for EU-level politics.
I saw yojr first question and will wrkte a proper answer.
>>63690931
which programming languages should I know if I want to follow in your steps
any other skills?
what did you study?
>>63690697
ITT German roleplays as ECB fag
>>63687569
Who is my country really in bed with and do you see resistance for the euro from non-Eurocurrency countries as the uncertainty of Europe's faith en masse is growing more and more? What happens to our Lev for instance once Europe burns?
>>63687569
Robert, is that you?
>>63689084
So, yeah, that is an extremely important question, because the treatment of Greece during the so-called bailout crisis was terrible. Personally, I didn't have any authority over that decision at that time, but if I had, I would feel guilty now.
Out of every Euro that the German government sent to Greece, probably 80 Cent went directly to German and French banks. You could call the Greece bailout crisis the "Banks bailout crisis, part 2". It was German taxpayers paying for European banks' miscalculations, yet again.
In your country, right now, infrastructure and real estate are sold to investors from abroad for laughable crisis. Greece's possible bankrupty is a huge, unfair, one-sided deal, and those who wanted to prevent it were ignored.
I see hope for Portugal, but I do not see much hope for Greece. You should probably emigrate if you want to afford more than food and housing.
>>63691396
I cannot tell you the exact name of my Master, as it is located in Brussels, and there are only so many Germans that took part in it.
My Bachelor is a relatively conventional Computer Science and Computational Linguistics degree.
As for languages, you might focus on Python. But knowledge of SAP Business tools becomes more and more important, to the point where many universities offer SAP Masters.
>>63692474
>Out of every Euro that the German government sent to Greece, probably 80 Cent went directly to German and French banks.
Absolute BS.
>>63692004
That is the state the EU Economy is functioning in for a long time.
It is only due to overall prosperity being so high that even the poorest easily afford basic gods that we have relative social stability.
>>63692761
And? I mentioned French banks.
>>63690837
? ;_;
>>63688650
Uhm, interesting. In any case that EU want to adopt NIT (Negative Interest Rates) what it will take to enforce such measaure?
I think you're aware about this process. There exist two solution to avoid people holding cash under the bed, one is imposing a tax in paper cash. And the other (Kenneth Roggof originally propose it) Phasing out paper money.
Which one do you think is better, the first or the latter?
>>63691029
Right now, we need a party that is as connected to people as the SVP in Switzerland and as macro-economically competent as governments in Denmark.
With other words, we need a party that does not exist.
Given how absolutely helpless every established party behaves in the face of the current Refugee Crisis, I noticed that neither truly deserves votes.
As an EU Economic advisor, a party that started out as Anti-EU country is not my best bet either, I guess.
But I will certainly not refrain from voting.
>>63689861
There are no signs whatsoever of this happening.
Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande were the only politicians that truly tried to push forward exonomic policies within the EU.
Now, they have other concerns, so ...
>>63693800
So the elected officials are essentially stopping the ECB from upholding it's mandate and hindering the Euro as it was meant to be?
At the moment there is a general election in Ireland the meme of "fastest growing economy" and 7% growth is banded about. Is this true and are we really safe from a major recession like the one we previously experienced.
Also, What do you make of the recent "refugee" acceptance into Europe from an economic point of view?
are you guys scared of the bitcoin?
what about the war on cash? will your really ban the 500 euro note?
>>63690962
Good.
Good.
Good.
Good.
Good, thanks.
>>63693572
confirmed cuck
>>63691210
bump
>>63694005
It's true, it's not safe. Especially with all the big spending talk by everyone. We still have a lot of debt. It could all go to shit again the second something happens in europe next. Note that none of the debt problems in europe have been solved at all, just delayed.
does ECB hire economic students with just bachelors or do i need full phd?
>>63694439
That's what I was getting at. They are claiming that we are the envy of Europe and propose that we can park off two billion for a rainy day fund, when we owe waaay more than that.
How fucked are we when China goes bang!
>>63692948
>And? I mentioned French banks.
Look at the scale. You said 80%. Absolute BS. It was 21% for Germany and France combined with a significant junk of it shaved off in bailout number II.
>>63687569
when will it happen senpai?
>>63693999
It is not as blatant as you make it seem.
The economic and politic systems of the EU are interconnected, but they are not (almost) the same, as it is in the US (yet).
That means that many purely political questiins, lime the rise of the Far Right in the EU, may be the priority if many national leaders.
As they have to concentrate on staying in office and keeping their own countries intact, EU-wide economical questions may become secondary.
In fact, Merkel invested tons of time and energy into the EU. And now, when she desperately needs the EU, it fails her. CDU politicians actually expected that everybody will accept theur fair share of refugees for a long - too long - time.
>>63694632
>They are claiming that we are the envy of Europe
We are. All of europe is in shit right now.
Whose economy would you rather have besides Germany's?
>propose that we can park off two billion for a rainy day fund, when we owe waaay more than that.
Never heard that. I don't see the difference between that and just borrowing more money when we need it. If we have spare money we might as well pay off some denbts with it.
>How fucked are we when China goes bang!
Very
>>63694765
Don't worry. One day you'll find a nice boy or girl your age and it'll all happen. Just don't despair over it.
>>63693561
What happens with sovereign bond yields if a NIT policy is adopted?
>>63694904
The envy of Europe thing just seems a bit contrived to me, yeah the economy has picked up (but from the fucking floor which it was bound to do), but the massive debt is the part that fucking kills me and the job prospects are still shit.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/noonan-s-rainy-day-fund-plan-makes-sense-jan-o-sullivan-1.2517000
>>63693561
Why don't you answer me Germany? :(
>>63691210
The historical solution to reducing national debt always was paying it back.
Ha! Jokes on you.
The actual method to get rid of national debt is to let it melt away by inflation.
The problem of Italy is that with their low credit ratings and unstable employment, not always competent (especially at local level) governing and toxic banking habits, they cannot truly plan their reforms.
I am worried about that country.
As for "endgame" questions, these are bot the sort an Ecinomist can seriously answer.
>>63695221
>yeah the economy has picked up (but from the fucking floor which it was bound to do)
No, it's picked up compared to everywhere in europe. We high growth now.
>but the massive debt is the part that fucking kills me and the job prospects are still shit.
Yeah, that sucks. But a lot of countries have high debts and do okay. US for example. And out credit rating is now looking pretty handsome.
>>63695114
Verga camarada, nosotros hablando sobre políticas de tasas negativas de interés en casi una hiperinflación. Que éxito.
>>63695373
>Venezuela
Isn't you economy completely and utterly fucked right now?
>>63687569
Would leaving the Eurozone and adapting a much stronger currency really cripple our export based economy?
If yes, are there any ways to keep a strong and stable economy, while still maintaining the sovereignty advantages of a national currency?
>>63687909
hahhahahaaha
fucking germans
u have it coming(again) 2bh
>>63695543
Totally. Hyperinflation, Shortage index 70%, a credit event coming in october (Default) The last year the economy contracted 10%. We are in a Depression.
>>63695543
Yep
>>63695485
>The actual method to get rid of national debt is to let it melt away by inflation.
We're all fucked.
>>63695894
>>63695924
I feel so sorry for you guys. If only anyone in your government knew as much as you about economics as you.
>>63693561
It could actually take more than we can do to reinforce such a measure.
You ought to know, we even consider the possibility of upcoming lawsuits. Negative Interest Rates might contradict the constitutional right to own property.
Both solutions are not really solutions to the core problen: how do we boost investitions and consumer spending in a time where the ones who can afford things already bought them - and the ones who can't seemingly never will, because cars & houses don't seem to be buikt for the majority of the population anymore.
I always love my London as example. Look at all that real estate used to park money. Abolishing paper cash doesm't mean anything in this case.
>>63695373
Here you go.
>>63687569
Which of the yuropoor economies will die next? Portugal? Italy? Spain?
What is your favourite pizza flavour
What's your favourite W40k race
What did you think of the new Star Wars movie
What's your opinon on ASMR
Iphone or Android
>>63687569
prove it faggot. explain to us what TARIC is and maybe I will believe you.
>>63696088
I can assume you that Belgium will never ever be "fucked" as long as you are the formal capital of the EU.
Brussels is a giant shopping mall for EU politicians.
>>63687569
as someone who works for the Bank of Canada I can safely call bullshit on this thread.
Y'all asking questions to a 1st year econ student lol.
Nobody knows what goes on unless you work in that specific department. Policy research groups and usually fragmented as fuck in these institutions and besides certain goals that trickle down, information usually goes up and stays up until government decision is made.
>>63687569
Which european bank is the most stable ?
>>63696607
was crashing EU with muslims part of your plan?
>>63696607
>Brussels is a giant shopping mall for EU politicians.
I think you mean 'real estate'.
>>63695485
>The actual method to get rid of national debt is to let it melt away by inflation.
That would take awhile no? I'm sure you'll be paying more ultimately in interest, or people wouldn't bother buying the bonds.
Raise inflation by much, and either your bond rates go up or no one wants to buy them.
>As for "endgame" questions, these are bot the sort an Economist can seriously answer.
Fair enough. I've read a good bit of work of a analyst called Jim Rickards, who seems to be one of the most well regarded experts on the currency wars. In his opinion the international monetary system is not far from collapsing due to the debt burden. It would have crashed in 2008, except that central banks could bail out the system. Next time they can't because they are all over extended, except for the IMF which could bail out the system with SDRs. A new system will need to be agreed after just like Bretton Woods. He reckons there is a reasonable chance that a new system of international currency backed in gold or some other commodity might be implemented. If not there will not be any obvious capable global reserve currency, unless SDR's are ready in time. He also feels that countries may struggle to agree on a new international monetary system, and we could rapidly descend into economic chaos. Not sure how much I buy all that. But I am concerned.
>>63696627
This should disprove your suspicions.
>>63688650
I don't answer questions if I don't know what other departments decide.
Already made this clear when talking about interest rates.
>>63696737
I once read that rabobank was most stable, as they are very conservative in their investments and would be a good place to have money in a crisis.
>>63694640
learn to read retard
>>63689541
>>63688153
A bump for your words hans
How screwed is my economy?
>>63696737
Luxembourg.
>>63697031
>That would take awhile no?
Decades. Or negative interest rates start to chip away debt, but this is an absurd situation for the EZ to be in, because there is literally no reason to invest if you get a negative return.
Negative interest rates may precipitate collapse faster, as people default to storing money in mattresses rather than banks.
>>63687569
What can you tell me about my country?
>these kind of clueless people act as advisors to the ECB
No wonder the EUSSR is going down the drain big time
I dont even have a fucking college degree and I know more about these things than this guy
>BWL or VWL
>not even once
>>63696419
You're asking thjs question after seeing how Greece was "saved"?
Eurozone countries, at least formally, will Live Forever ...
*Oasis starts playing in the background*
>>63697409
how are the austrian banks holding up? there was this hypo chaos recently and we bailed them out for 10billion or something. why cant we let the banks fail?
>>63697575
Comparing the EU with the UdSSR meana you have not understood what the EU is all about.
Pro tip: not about Communism.
is your MIC ready?
>>63697447
The whole situation is just madness. It always seems so insane that I feel I must not understand it. But the more I read the more it seems, yes.. it is just that insane. Large collapse incoming. Just hope there's someone who knows how to put things right again after a collapse : (
>>63696770
Yes, crashing the EU is part of the EU's secret plan to crash the EU.
>>63687569
Is the Euro's effective purpose to create a currency that will support Germany's vast export industry by being undervalued in Germany and overvalued in peripheral states?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11584031/Germanys-record-trade-surplus-is-a-bigger-threat-to-euro-than-Greece.html
>>63698010
I knew it!
>>63696308
When do you think the London housing bubble will pop? Its got to do anytime soon, especially with the UAE in austerity measures due to low oil prices. One economic jolt and all those overseas housing investors will flea like rats off a sinking ship.
>>63697871
I know exactly what the EU is motherfucker
E X A C T L Y
And it needs to be destroyed
>>63697773
Austrian banks are a special case, as they, on one hand, vowed loyalty to Germany's plans and EU insitutions and follow classic business models.
On the other hand, you have a shady Bankgeheimnis thing going on, not unlike Switzerland. So Austrias banks are actually split into opposers and followers of EU influence.
Otherwise, I do not see many problems. Austrian governments have proven themselves to be very reliable in planning financial expenses ahead.
>>63698010
>Yes, crashing the EU is part of the EU's secret plan to crash the EU.
Yeah, theyre intentionally causing a crsis for which they will provide the solution to. They will force deeper integration of the countries and give more power to Brussels.
>>63692474
>if you want to afford more than food and housing
Phew, I'm covered. I got some deposits for healthcare too, and my Steam games cannot be confiscated :)
Prove to me the formula for the optimal weight matrix of efficient GMM
>>63698598
Buy-to-Let is getting nobbled - ironically by Osborne in the Conservatives - a party that for the longest time said "property ownership and rights are the bestest! BUY YOUR COUNCIL HOUSE FROM US". This will create a short-term dip in prices as there's a lot of landlords in the UK that are using it as a supplemental income or investment on a tiny margin. Buy-to-let changes (extra stamp duty, interest rate penalties on mortgages) will force a lot of them into the red so they'll sell up.
Foreign investment that bought properties outright (i.e. no mortgage, added freehold properties to their portfolio as a long-term asset) won't give a fuck. It's only if Osborne starts to squeeze these guys that we really will see a price correction.
>>63698491
ok. arent they exposed in eastern europe? again: why does the public always bail out the banks? let them get rekt. let a new bank come along
>>63698440
As the Financial Crisis has proven, predicting housing bubbles to burst is one of the main strenghts of Economists.
/irony off
The housing market is difficult to analyze, as it is heavily tied to emotions. Believe it or not, but even oligarchs do not behave rational when it comes to their real estate property.
Other than that, I do not think that London City will be gone in a flash. Cameron has things covered for the Russians and Arabs uhm ... Brits.
>>63698491
niqqa EU is looking more and more like communism by the day
big taxes, welfare state, one culture...
in east europe EU has the nickname eurokolhos
witch means european collectivization
what are we now? collection of nations or collected nations?
>>63688337
Fellow econfag here. They do that shit because a lot of macro policies involve the people being unaware of the what's going on and not fully knowing the effects (so not wanting to get shit if it goes awry), it's policy of guiding the people in a way they don't think they are going to be guided. Markets react according to information present, so it's a bit like guiding people in a psych study. The instant they really know what's going on it negates what they're trying to do.
>>63699112
How come nobody knew or at least said anything about what was going to happen
I doubt they didn't knew about all the debt all countries were racking up because of the single currency
In my country we had the convertibility 1 : 1 and no trade regulations for almost 10 years and it proved disastrous
>>63698137
I didn't read the article, but I saw its title - and would like to comment on that.
Saying that Germany's trade surplus os a threat is a bit of Leftist Populism.
Firstly, a stagnating German economy would be even more of a threat - for the whole EU.
Also, a trade surplus is not the result of oppression, but of a free market. Germany had a huge edge over countries like Bulgaria when they entered the EU - and Germany "just happened" to take advantage of that.
The Euro's effective purpose was a much different one, historically. In fact, it was a currency in favor of not only Germany, but also France and Benelux. Mitterand is a name that should be mentioned along with Kohl when speaking about Euro architects.
As for an effective purpose that the Euro served and the Deutsche Mark would not.
Have you heard about "currency speculation"? Of course you have, but if you would live in Central Europe before the Euro, you would probably hear about it every day.
Speculation for and against every little European currency you can imagine, every day, up and down. The Euro does a good job of preventing that.
The Euro saves time and makes markets across Europe much more transparent, predictable and comparable.
Also, initially, it was a goal to save a lot of money by abolishing national money factories and currency-related institutions. But that hasn't been realized well, so we actually enploy the same number of people for maintaining the Eurozone as the sum of Euro countries did for maintaining their own currencies.
>>63700412
>Also, initially, it was a goal to save a lot of money by abolishing national money factories and currency-related institutions.
Could you explain a bit more on what this means?
>>63688337
I have to disagree, economists are the opposite of SJWs.
They do not care about gender, age, religion, sexual preferences, race or culture.
Money is the most effective means of unification and the biggest source of injustice in the World.
>>63688696
It is also effective in the EU. More effective than every single measure a single European corporation could employ. Probably as effective as all of the non-fiscal measures combined to keep European net exporters afloat.
>>63700412
>Saying that Germany's trade surplus os a threat is a bit of Leftist Populism.
The Telegraph is a right-wing UK paper.
>Also, a trade surplus is not the result of oppression, but of a free market.
It would be, if the trading was linked to a nation's currency. In the hypotheticals, the Deutschmark would be steadily priced higher in response to trade surpluses with trading nations, making it more expensive to export. The Euro destroys this mechanism by using an aggregate economies - some completely batshit insane, like Greece - to prop up German exports.
Euroshill confirmed.
>>63700900
What do you think about the fact that banks globally are now bigger, more interdependent and more leveraged than they were in 2008?
Why did the DAX drop from 12000 to 9000, and where us the index heading to?
Why does the austrian traded index suck and has not really moved since 2008 unlike other indices world-wide?
>>63699185
Communism? That certainly does not hold true for member countries. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary are far less Communist now than they once were. Pardon the pun. In fact, integration in the EU economy made some employees of EU compankes rich, whilst others, that had to compete with the very same EU companies, fell far behind.
The agricultural sectors of Bulgaria and Poland are good examples of this process. I bet they wish it was Communism (again), so they would not have to compete with LIDL or whatever German Walmart-wannabe is now raping small shops in Bulgaria.
>>63687569
What does Brussels think of Ireland? :)
>>63699077
Take a look at the parties sitting in the Parliaments.
They call themselves "Völkisch", "Christian", "Conservative" or whatever to make themselves look attractive for simple-minded people.
But economically - and that is the single most important thing, because governments cannot truly influence culture anymore - they are simply Rightist.
So they WILL help corporations, property owners and banks, even if they fucked up.
Other than that, there are many rational (and irrational) arguments to save banks, but I guess you wanted a political, not an economical explanation.
I will post from a new ID from now on, as I have to switch devices.
>>63702254
what is the situation on the baltics? Is all the talk about model economic reforms just overblown political babble?
>>63687569
why is eternal anglo always trying to supress the aryan men?
>>63702768
This is my new ID.
>>63703018
you must be under observation if the id does not change, mr Kraut.
>>63697208
Rabobank is pretty good
>>63701684
I don't know dick about what you do, but I've been monitoring this thread and I see you mentioned my country a couple of times now. What do you think we have to worry about the most and what do you reckon are the biggest potential happenings (positive and negative) that you see coming in the foreseeable future for us?
>>63700630
Long story short, because I'm behind on a lot of questions.
Approximately 7.7℅ of the GDP of a modern economy is used to maintain this very same economy. This maintenance originally included managing the course of your own national currency, especially in times where currency speculations was at an all-time high - that was pre-Eurozone.
Let's assume you start a new currency named Chan. Do you think people will come running for it, exchange their assets for Chans? No, they will always sceptical whether it's not better to stick with Reddits. So you have to spend ressources (=Chans) to popularize Chans, to make them look and feel nice, build foreign relations to convince other countries to allow and popularize operations with Chans, etc.
By replacing the many currencies of Europe with the Euro, it was intended to cut spendings on these parts, as a unified European currency was expected to be viewed as reliable and universal.
>>63703693
Half your young, able-bodied workforce migrated to the UK after you joined the EU. This is exactly the same as what happened in Poland after migration controls were lifted.
You've got a demographic timebomb on your hands.
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/287
>>63702918
Gluttony, Greed, Wrath, Envy, Sloth, Pride and Lust for Aryan Blood.
>>63687909
>Britain leaves the EU
>negotiates access to single market
>lowers corporation tax, making London a tax haven as well as a financial centre
>forms new union with Norway, makes it known that countries we like may join as well
>as refugee crisis gets worse, Scandinavian and northern European countries leave the failing EU to join the club.
>Germany left isolated in a currency union with debt ridden southern European countries, overrun by migrants
Worried?
>>63703988
>our central estimate is that immigration from these two countries will add 50,000 a year to the UK population for the next five years
Those numbers don't worry me. We had over a million people leave in the 90s, and those were the intelligent and educated ones. The ones you keep getting are largely gypos, which I cannot begin to express what a blessing it is to have them finally start leaving. The actual Bulgarians that leave for the UK now are seasonal workers and education hunters. I'm in Bulgarian uni atm and I see it all the time. Statistics in this particular case do not reflect adequately what goes on. As gypos leave, we import people in bulk from lost clay like Macedonia, Besarabia and Greek Thrace.
>>63704403
Can we join too : (?
>>63702093
I enjoyed James Joyce, Samuel Beckett, The Cranberries and my former girlfriend - that was half Irish - once.
As a collective institutions, the EU was always very sceptical of your tax policies, but much more regarding companies than private persons.
Your way of running your economy is risky and will always stay risky, but you already paid the bill for it and seem to be on a path of recovery.
Putting you in the same category as other PIIGS countries seemed to be a hasty decision, as your economy depends far less on industry - and the parts that do have more connections with the UK and the US than the rest of the EU, so your economic situation is unique - as your country in general is.
Cherish it.
>>63704100
Are there any silver linings or economic benefits to be expected from the migrant crisis? I cant see any, but its parroted over and over
>>63704708
>Your way of running your economy is risky and will always stay risky
What way is that exactly?
>>63703988
>demographic timebomb
History teach us that when the population decrease, life become easier for the ones that remain. Why do you keep calling it like that at the EU?
>>63687569
how fucked are we in here?
>>63687569
How many jews?
>>63704590
You should consider it.
Italy is the only country where I could view an EU exit as a debatable option, as inclusion in the global economy is now lower than before the EU and the Euro doesn't do you any favors.
Yet, Italy has structural problems that trace back as far as the 80s, so be sure to not put all the blame on the EU.
What can I do to prepare for the happening
>>63704590
Not unless you massively sort your shit out
>>63703160
Haha, no.
It's just that I killed OP and give manipulating answers from now on, assuming his identity.
>>63704780
Population growth. Traditionally, this fosters economic growth.
This doesn't apply, however, if you import a thousand boatloads of uneducated and unenlightened people from a broken country and expect them to integrate into a services-based or high-skill manufacturing economy.
What happens, in reality, is that these migrants entrench themselves in the unskilled and minimum-wage sectors and depress wages for a significant proportion of the native and/or settled population.
>>63705041
Sort our shit out? We're doing pretty well right now. Better than you guys.
>>63702850
The economic reforms you made right after the Soviet Union collapsed are far from being just babble. Compare where Moldavia, Georgia and Armenia stand now to your situation and guess where investors are more likely to look for opportunities.
But there I already mentioned the main problem of Post-Soviet republics. Lacking own assets, they had to make themselves attractive for foreigners with all means possible. As such, they are heavily dependent on investors and the life quality of the natives doesn't necessarily improve, as the public sector stays piss-poor and neglected. The business and political climate stay rough, fixated on neoliberalist assumptions.
I don't know to what extent this applies to your country in particular, as I'm not expert with the Baltics, but I heavily assume many of the points above apply.
>>63701684
what is european directice? every EU member has to march to the same beat
and dont get me started on Juncker - who the fuck does he think he is the motherfucker and hes european commision
just fuck the EU shit up up so I can at least have a little peace of mind
>>63694640
fuck off kraut, i hope you get gangraped for valentine's day
>>63704876
Because EU membership is not a state of permeance.
Krautbro is right, a Brexit could seriously fuck things up for the Eurozone. Wealth created in countries that depart an "economic" union stays in those countries. If the EU breaks up, the countries on the periphery of the EU will have lost the economic output of a significant proportion of their active workforce that's been supplanted by outflow of money from the core EU states.
http://money-go-round.eu/
>>63704780
This is a question that deserves its own thread.
Of course, nothing is done without economic motives nowadays.
Merkel expected to orchestrate the Refugee crisis in a way that would help to solve Germany's demographic problems, believing Muslim immigration to be a necessary evil.
Now she realized slowly that she fucked up. But as she always prefers, she keeps her population uninformed. She is absolutely spectacular at this and a perfect politician for times where Germans don't understand politics.
>>63704972
Fill your hard drive with terabytes of memes.
>>63704932
5837736385638362856383626
>>63697203
What you made a statement about negative interest rates?
I am sometimes an invited guest to universities and i've met history students answering similar questions better than you do.
>>63705921
>Now she realized slowly that she fucked up
I'm sort of out of the loop here. Is there any update on this? Is there any sign of the acceptance of refugees being slowed?
>>63687569
Yeah, I need a small loan of 50 million Euro for expenses and stuff. Could you send me one of those applications?
And I'm Merkel.
>>63705520
I'm not going to lie I fucked up, thought you were Italian. Of course you can join, we love you guys
>>63704403
Fantasy.
>>63705921
>a perfect politician for times where Germans don't understand politics
Are you German? If so, how can you hold such contempt for yoiur own people?
>>63706320
Thanks brit bro : D. We can be a family again : D.
>>63704894
You have to work hard to regain the trust of capital markets. That sounds like a tiringly old phrase, but for a country as small and unique as Portugal, attractive for its tax policies and low wages, not actual industries, this is of utmost importance.
I can assume you that there is hope for you - and in comparison to Greece, things look simply golden for you, because you still have intact social security and health care.
You have been damaged by Globalization, it caught you off guard. I hope you recover, lovechild of Europe and the Ocean.
>>63706320
Proof that retards have no common sense.
>>63704932
Your economy is worth less than toilet paper.
>>63706143
I don't see signs, personally.
This section of 4chan (/pol/) is full of Refugee news, check other threads out.
What do you think of Schäuble's recent move to limit the withdrawal of money from bank accounts in Germany? Such measures are in place in other countries like France and Italy too already afaik. What's the purpose?
I don't trust the old rat's argument that this is meant to prevent abuse / crime. I'm not fond of the thought that one day there may be negative interest rates for the common man's bank account with no proper way to get his hands on his money anymore.
>>63706371
Don't underestimate us, we've been playing power games since before you were born.
>>63706465
Seriously you must be drunk. Portugal is as much of a basket-case economy as Greece.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/overseas-business-risk-portugal/overseas-business-risk-portugal
>>63704867
Being extremely open for foreign capital flows and focussing on real estate, of all things, which are also capital flows de facto if you disregard the material costs.
>>63706990
>Being extremely open for foreign capital flows and focussing on real estate
What's wrong with being open for capital flows? And how are we 'focusing' on real estate?
>>63687569
is it happening?
how fucked is Greece on a scale from 1 to Greece?
>>63706846
Negative interest means people with deposits in regular banks have to pay interest TO the bank, rather than rewarded for saving their money. This gives people an incentive to not store their money in banks that charge them for it - with practically 0% inflation, it makes better economic sense to hoard cash than invest.
Negative interest rates in the 2% range are already de-facto implemented in the Eurozone. These withdrawal controls prevent a run on banks that could further destabilise the fragile house of cards that is the Eurozone.
>>63687569
>European economic theory
>>63687569
After enitial shock, are there fears of the UK potentially doing well outside the EU, possibly making others want to follow it?
>>63707257
Emigrate while you still can
>>63706846
Two words: capital run.
Schäuble knows more than I do considering future interest rates, so that move certainly does smell fishy.
Most likely, it was preventive, so he doesn't have to implement the policy in times when the population in general already expects negative interest rates and sees the policy as obvious announcement.
As for now, it could be interpreted as a cautious move, but not as a direct preparation for zero or negative interest rates. So people don't change their decisions.
>>63707257
If I were you, I would learn perfect English, a useful skill and try to emigrate.
>>63695485
You should be worried about Italy you fucking Barbaro' cunt, because we're gonna be the ones that finally take Germany down once and for all when we default on our debt, and you know that full well you slimy disingenuous German cocksucker.
Ps fuck you kraut
>>63707505
Aside from >muh £55million bollocks, we'd probably weather the short-term storm very well.
One of the lesser-publicised facts about the supposed "common" market is that France and Germany have perpetually blocked the establishment of UK financial services (which are the best in the world - currency brokerage, investment funds management, insurance) in EU member states. We've been given the cold shoulder in flagrant defiance of what the EU is supposed to be about - free movement of capital and services across the Continent.
http://forbritain.org/EfBFinancialandInsurance.pdf
>>63706980
Nah. There are countless shades of grey between Switzerland and Chad.
As for now, markets don't see Portugal as the junk store they see Greece as.
>>63707882
>>63707638
I can't emigrate cause I have to take care of my dad who's not doing so well at the moment.
I just hope the happening doesn't last very long...
>>63687569
How much do you cost?
>>63687569
Of course you are. Post some evidence cuck.
>>63708037
Is Syrian war just a war over a pipeline?
qatar and iranian pipeline
>>63708073
There already have been pleas for a financial reset or - at least - debt restructuring in Greece, but those were completely ignored.
With other words, it will last long, as the current "solution" for the Greek crisis is an extremely slow one that will put a burden on a whole generation.
I am sorry that this is the side of the EU you get to see.
>>63707810
what? u cant withdraw all your money from bank anymore? when did i miss this?
thats not good for me...
>>63707882
Typical German cunt, absolute indifference to the fate of other countries, which he and his bosche ilk were partly responsible for.
One would think that these stupid fucks would've learnt their lesson in 1918 and 1945, clearly they are too retarded to be allowed to exist in the concert of Europe
>>63708279
No.
You underestimate the tendency of non-Western societies to solve their conflicts here and now.
This slow, peaceful solution of problems through parliamentary debates and Elections is a Western invention.
>>63707968
>>63708440
The "meme magic" is real.
>>63708430
That is not how it works.
>>63708073
Well then you'd better hope that Greece magically develops some productive industries that don't involve wasting money on Germany's credit card
>>63708344
>I am sorry that this is the side of the EU you get to see.
Is that all you have to say? No acceptance of responsibility on your part at all, just a meek disinterested apology on your part with a serving of plausible deniability on the side.
I hope you and that unfuckable bitch Merkel spend eternity getting gang raped by Syrian "refugees"
>>63708123
Depends what kind of service you request, sweetheart.
>>63708643
I'm Italian you dumb fuckwit
>>63708037
How much of a cult is austrian economics
and
Why no regulation of derivatives, ie security derivatives, they still exist and can blow up again.
and finaly
Do you think the fear of Brexit will be enough to get frankfurts dirty paws of the city of london.
cudos for not letting the system collapse in 2008, no one really knows how you pulled that shit off, other of course by destroying any future economic vitality by washing the world with dieing worthless paper.
ps ex jp morgan here
>>63707200
Look at your GDP per capita and your annual growth rates. Both are extraordinary. And they couldn't be archived through regulated traditional industries. A lot of this wealth is "parked" money.
>>63709196
>And they couldn't be archived through regulated traditional industries.
Why do you say that? What's happening here exactly that's so bad?
>A lot of this wealth is "parked" money.
Examples?
>>63709196
tell me about Italy, specifically about what you think of the current government
>>63703693
Bulgaria is a difficult case. Because of the lack of prominent firms or enterprises that could represent the country in the eyes of economists, the analysis of your country is usually boiled down to a few numbers that show how well your economy is performing in terms of traditionally accepted key aspects.
Things look okay on paper, but that doesn't say much about the life quality of your population. Also, your demographic problems are massive.
what u think about hungary i have to emigrate to or we are ok in long run?
>>63700412
>Saying that Germany's trade surplus os a >threat is a bit of Leftist Populism.
well pretty funny, you seem to me that you have never listened to a macro lecture...on the other hand you are only a programmer, so that is ok... you should read about stützels saldenmechanik. The big problem is, that a strong exporting country will build up huge surplusses. keynes realized that and proposed the bancor. but to say its only leftist populism is also populism!
>>63709445
It's not looking good. The wealth that Italy accommodated in times before the EU is mostly property-based and doesn't exist in the from of well-performing industries.
Because of that, jobs and market share were lost at a dramatic rate as soon as Italy was exposed to direct competition with the global economy.
It tells lot about your country that Mario Draghi, after working there, is fully convinced that property-based, non-liquid wealth is what is dragging the Eurozone economy down.
As for your current government, they have few chances in succeeding in whatever they are planning, because of said reasons.
Can someone explain why it's bad for a country to sell more stuff to other countries than it buys from them?
>>63708344
can you at least explain why the EU is standing then?
since it is an accepted fact that the greek debt and how it was dealt was a huge mistake, why is the EU trying to rectify a mistake with another mistake on top of it?
2 mistakes do not make 1 right
why are you presenting a case where Greece is fucked and we might as well all emigrate, just because the EU leadership and their economic policies are corrupt and erroneous to the bone?
that is why Greece should leave the Euro or never have been in it in the first place, because the way you present it (and judging by the way things are) the last thing the EU is worried about is solidarity between the states
Sorry, the post above was directed at
>>63709545
Is it only me or do Ireland and Italy flags look the same here?
>>63709938
because there is balanced trade, country a exports goods to country b and therefore country has to be in debt by country a for the amount of the goods. if country a keeps exporting more and more, country b will have no oppurtunity to pay back the debt (lack of currency of country a). with convertible exchange rate, the currency of country a will rise and therefore the goods of country b will become relatively cheap in country a. therefore they will buy goods there und country b has money of country a and can pay them back
>>63710173
>>63709604
1. Is Deutsche Bank really a bomb with a clock mechanism? A lot of Happening™ economist are in panic because of the 70 billion dollars in derivatives that douche bank has, that, according to them, does not have value at all; Im asking this because yesterday deutsche bank was red as fuck
2. Whats your opinion on the ukrainian´s economic situation? shall I buy some of their bond?(same for venezuela)
>>63709919
I'm still not sure what you mean. Why are capital flows bad? What exactly is ireland doing that is bad?
Why is property based wealth worse in Ireland than any other country? I'm not getting any real explanations here.
>>63709806
What you're telling me is basically an economic tautology, yet that's not what is important. What is important is how the message "Germany caused this situstion" causes in other European countries. This is called populism.
>>63687569
Anything about the Faroe islands. The worst it got was in the 90's, but how's it now? You hear anything about us?
>>63709998
Sorry Greekbro, but your economy is about 3% of the entire Eurozone output.
Saving political face (no country has ever crashed out of the Euro) is easy to attain when the stakes are just 3%.
Your OXI vote in the 2015 crisis and the subsequent betrayal by your government should leave you with no illusions that it doesn't matter who you vote for, you're slaves to the Eurozone masters.
>>63687569
Why are you committing genocide?
>>63710173
It's not you, people think I'm italy all the time. Someone though I was mexico lately :/
disregard: >>63710490
>>63687569
In the near future, will Romanian Leu (RON), strengthen its position in rapport with Euro ?
>>63710173
It's not just you, I made the same mistake further up
Tell me how the netherlands are doing and will be doing relative to other EU countries.
>>63710489
>70 billion dollars
its much worse, its trillion, fellow castilian oppressor
>>63710173
thanks
however it seems after decades of stagnations and recession in 2015 we gained +0.8% of gdp and the outlook for this year is 1.5% with a little reduction on debt too.
Is this all an illusion?
>>63687569
What if we joined the EU?
>>63709998
Greece shouldn't have been let in the first place. They shouldn't have then spent massive amounts of borrowed money without any hope of paying it back. At this stage everybody knows the whole thing is fucked but nobody wants to pick up the bill.
>>63710512
are you in favour of the Brexit for those same reasons? remove the EU shackles?
because you hit the nail in the head, this whole fiasco of voting OXI and then the EU literally blackmailing Tsipras (or even if you accept the other version that he is a mole, was supposed to do that all along, matters not), it does feel like the EU is just dictating everything and there is not even a reason to vote anymore
if Brussels is able to dictate everything and keep blackmailing every single government to do what it wants or else the currency flow stops, this EU experiment is over really because none of this is happening for the interests of the EU citizens overall
not in Britain, not in Germany or Sweden, least of all in Greece that is somehow Europe's black sheep; an oxymoron when it is just the 3% of the EUs output
>basically the EU can't sort out Greece's debt problem that amounts to 3% of the EU's budget but claims to govern and control the EU, including this refugee crisis fiasco
>>63710830
you disturb our political choices too much even without being in the EU.
Sorry Jim but we are better separated
>>63710489
1.
Happening economists are always in panic, that's their job.
Actually, Deutsche Bank will probably be one of the hot topics of our comfy company, starting this Friday. So I would rather not comment too much on this issue yet, because not much information is disclosed, as it is usual in these cases.
I wrote a long post almost at the very start of this thread in why the Deutsche Bank failed to become vital part of the changing banking World and why I don't feel sorry for them.
2.
In 2014, the Ukraine and Russia were the single big topics here. It's spooky how fast they are forgotten.
Ukraine has massive monopoly problems that you would expect only from a Post-Communist country, as well as rampant corruption, a bit very business-suited mentality, as well as an industry that serves basically as the continuation of Russia's gas pipes.
Naturally, you expect the situation there to not be very good.
>>63709998
Yeah sorry mate but your country is now owned by the EU. You and your country have been sacrificed to keep the EU ideology alive. If its any consolation, what happened to Greece has raised alarm bells across Europe about how ruthlessly ambitious the EU is, and the UK wants the fuck out of this nightmare mega state before its too late.
>>63710697
You will be doing the same as Germany for the most part, due to similar economic and social structures.
Overall, for such a small country, you have impressive industrial output and ought to do okay.
Demographics are your biggest problem.
>>63710830
Then we'll hold an EU-wide Black History month.
>>63711133
>this EU experiment is over
Yes, it really is looking fatally flawed at this point. If it doesn't collapse by itself soon, then more greece like situations are inevitable. The whole idea that the EU and ECB thinks it can make debtor nations do whatever it wants is fatally flawed. Like greece, sometimes the government is too incompetent to implement the restructuring and the population are not willing to vote for people who are. It's really silly. The money should have never been given to greece in the first place and greece should never been allowed in the euro. But they were allowed for political reasons, which is why the whole euro project is so fumbly.
>>63687569
Does the UN practice quantitative easing? Or as it's called for most businesses, a fucking ponzi scheme
>>63711628
The UN doesn't have a currency, so no. The IMF have one though, and yes, they practice QE.
>>63711477
You've mentioned demographics for pretty much every country so far. I haven't looked into it, is it worse in some places than others or are people just living too long all over the place?
>>63711285
I meant:
"A mentality not suited for business" in Ukraine. It's a mix of interhiretance from Soviet times and traditional Russian sentimentalism.
>>63711002
are you aware why Greece was let in?
do you believe the EU was just handing out money so the Greeks can spend them? that is not quite how it works
the EU knew damn well Greece was a new market, a small one but a strategically placed market. Greece knew since 1996 that they would host the 2004 Olympics as well and on top of it Turkey is next door
do you believe it is a coincidence that Greece was dragged in the EU with false data that both the EU and the Greek government at the time knew about?
is it also a coincidence that Greece has a disproportionate amount of military hardware that was bought from EU members?
dunno what they feed you up there in terms of propaganda or if you've ever been to Greece, but Greeks aren't living an opulent life that was somehow provided by the EU
it is not as if the EU did anything else than circle-jerk the money in the EU banks and have the audacity to point the finger in the end when they allowed Greece as another one of Germany's satellite to milk
>>63704590
that's ireland boyo
