![donald-trump[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/0rnitYY.jpg "donald-trump[1].jpg")
Please tell me /pol/, without memes or baits.
What are the actual odds of this man actually winning the nomination over Carson?
>>55271030
Carson has a 0% chance. He is already declining from his temporary soft-support based high.
Trump has two key advantages; he doesn't have to take time out of campaigning to raise funds, and he has the largest and most fervent online presence.
The former gives him a slight edge with regards to the media, and the latter gives him a major advantage with the youth.
He's also siphoning unionized support from the left since unions detest the Clintons.
If the GOP field remains crowded (8 or more candidates) into the primaries Trump will likely be the nominee, assuming he has no major gaffe moments. If the field thins he may or may not be the one absorbing enough of that support to keep going.
It will be one of three people: Trump, Rubio, or Cruz.
Carson has 0%, simply because he has no ground support required to get on the ballot in most states. He is actually not running, and it will come out his superPac is actually Jeb. His super pac already made him support the TPP for gibs.
There are real businesses running betting odds on who will win the nomination, and they have to know what they're doing our they would quickly lose money and go out of business. Everyone has Trump between 3:1 and 4:1, which is second most likely. Rubio is first, and Carson is far behind both of them.
>Carson
Carson is this cycle's Herman Cain, people are gonna forget about him as soon as Iowa is over.
I'd put Trump's chances of getting the nom in the high twenties. His support is astounding, but the fact that the establisment is undermining him is one of the challenges he'll have to overcome.
But even if he doesn't get it, Trump will definitely be one of the last candidates standing. As things are now, l'd say it'll come down to a fight between him, Rubio, and maybe Cruz.
How could anyone not vote for Trump? He's like Farage with the money to make it.
>>55272458
>no Farage-Trump-Abbot Anglo bromance g20 meetings where they call Trudeau a loser c.uck
disappointing
>>55272295
If it's not Trump, it will be Jeb. One thing to understand about the Republican Establishment is they never abandon a Bush.
>>55271030
These threads are ploys to slide the truth to the bottom:
>>55245895
EUROPE MUST KNOW
>>55271030
Don't listen to people who says X person has no chance. Look at the date, we are not even in January yet, a lot of stuff can change. You might never know, people might just get sick of Trump half way into this election and pick another GOP contender.
The same with Hillary, Bernie and Omalley. Too early right now.
It's still way too early
Neither will get the nod.
Carson is being exposed as a liar and exposing himself as too religious. Joseph probably never lived and did not order the creation of the Egyptian pyramids. Rational people know this.
Trump is a case study in the S-curve (pic related). He started low (2%) and immediately skyrocketed to 35%.
Trump's problem is that while 35% of the GOP loves him .. love love love him .. nearly 65% of the GOP hates him.
Every candidate has been assessed against each other. People surveyed are asked "who do you want to vote for?"
People answered Trump (up to 35%), or Carson or Rubio or Bush .. each with lower figures.
But then they were asked, ok, so say [insert previous answer here] didn't win .. how likely would you be to vote for [list of each candidates]
Nearly 65% of GOP candidates said they were either somewhat or very unlikely to vote for Trump.
This means, nearly 100% of the GOP who *dont* like Trump, hate him so much they refuse to vote for him.
Rubio supporters will vote for Bush and vise versa no problem. But people either love or hate Trump.
Now. The GOP account for roughly 50% of America. Trump has about 1/3 of them. The other half (democrats) hate his fuckin guts.
So Trump doesn't resound with moderate/swing voters and realistically has just 1/6 or 15-20% of the US vote locked.
He won't overcome this. He's ostracized Hispanics, he's ostracized blacks, he's ostracized women, he's ostracized veterans. Worse, he's ostracized Bush supporters, he's ostracized Paul supporters.
How do you overcome that? Without flip flopping?
Trump has always boasted that he's not a politician. And he's right. He's really really not.
He grossed 15-20% of America. And that's commendable. He knows how to get ratings!
But only players like Obama can net 52%
And that's what Trump needs to win.
>>55272827
>ostracize
You keep using that word, I don't think you know what it means.
>>55271030
50/50
>>55272458
>no political experience
>looney ideas such as believing vaccines cause autism and energy-efficient lightbulbs cause cancer
>is a celebrity like Kim Kardashian with no real worth to society
>campaign based mostly on being a white bigot, few policies beyond that are discussed
>/pol/ also believes the Jews are in control of things, which means they shouldn't expect him to get nominated whatsoever
100% I've never seen a candidate win the presidency as fast as Trump has. He'll get huge support with white men, he'll split the white women and he'll get higher percentage of black and Hispanic votes than past candidates. That's a recipe for a very comfortable win. When you take into account the truly terrible candidates on the Democrat side he only needs to win the nomination to assure victory.
>>55272594
I cry every night because of this
>>55272642
Jeb is literally unelectable. At times it looks like he doesn't even want the job. I know it's a meme, but he really is low-energy.
I'm surprised the establishment isn't betting on Kasich. With Christie's shtick nutered by Trumps's non-PC campaign, and Jeb...being Jeb, he's their only alternative in case Rubio goofs up.
>>55272827
Go away Rand
>>55272827
I'm a democrat. I'm voting for Trump.
>>55273198
The Bushes have given Trillions to their supporters over the years in taxpayer dollars. They won't give up on Jeb. If Jeb gets the nomination he will win, because the power brokers will remove Hillary. Hillary is easy to take down if the elite so choose, they just simply charge her in October.
>>55273324
>not voting establishment democrat who will keep things as they are
>not voting for the firebrand socialist
You can identify as anything you like, but if neither of those two resonate with you, you're just bullshitting yourself.
Besides, you're on /pol/. Why the fuck would you be here, if you were a democrat?
>>55271030
>Appears on SNL and makes fun of himself
>Were as Hilolary spends 5k trying to frame her fellow democrats
Got to admit you can say what you want about Trump but his heart is in the right place.
I actually believe he wants to fix the USA the best he can where as Hildog just wants to be President because she thinks she deserves it cause Bill fucked some jew broad.
>>55271030
0%. He had no conservative values, he will never get the nomination of the Conservative party.
>>55273531
Listen gypo I've been registered demo for over 12 years. I woke up. There used to be a center of left in America. Not any more.
I want the trumpster.. but I'd also enjoy the global butthurt over another bush
>>55273764
So, you're not a democrat.
You can register as anything you like, ask people to call you by your squirrelkin name if you prefer, but that don't make it so.
Also: you do realize the US is absurdly right leaning, right?
>>55271030
2%
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
/thread
>>55271030
Rubio - 40%
Good: High favorables, has become the establishment pick, young and Hispanic which could potentially be death for Hillary in the general.
Bad: Shady past with his donors/finances. Stabbed his mentor, Jeb Bush, in the back. member of the gang of 8, the base feels betrayed by him.
Trump - 20%
Good: Wild card, self funding, highly charismatic, the most competent out of the pack.
Bad: The establishment will try and sabotage him at every step. Is maybe too based to be President. Has second highest unfavorables next to Jeb.
Cruz - 20%
Good: Most conservative by far. The base of the base loves him. Low burn rate, raises lots of money, good politician, lots of ground game in many states.
Bad: Establishment hates him as much as Trump, has very little charisma. Seen as a creepy little monster by most.
Jeb - 10%
Good - Money and establishment support.
Bad - Everything else.
No one else has a realistic shot.
Not any more :( I'm thirty but people 25 ancd younger honestly believe that they should be protected from being offended. They want everything for free so they want the charlatan jew sanders.
>>55272976
Yeah he does. And he used it correctly.
