Disclaimer: I'm a libertarian so I don't really have a horse in the race so to speak, but I'm pragmatic enough to analyze politics. What follows are the reasons I believe the GOP will dominate the election.
1. Acceptance of paradigm shift: The DNC has colluded to foist a centrist/corporate "liberal" on the democratic base. With their voter malaise at historic levels it would already be difficult for them to energize their supporters to actually vote. If only a few percents of leftists stay home, Hillary will suffer in all swing states. The GOP, meanwhile, looks poised to nominate an outsider; specifically because support for the two major outsiders is now above 50% of the electorate.
2. Changing issues: For the last few elections, foreign affairs related to Russia and China were virtual non issues and were in fact laughed at by the left (remember horses and bayonets?) This made the right wing look warmongering and out of touch. With Russia involved in two foreign theaters and China's actions in the Spratlys, a less pacifistic stance is no longer a handicap. Immigration is also featuring heavily and it's clear a large proportion of the voters agree more with the right than the left. Unions appear to be abandoning Hillary, which is absolute mayhem for the democratic party. If they endorse Trump, he will sweep the midwest as Reagan did.
3. A youth going red: There are parallels right now between the Reagan youth and the increase in disdain for corporate leftism among the youth. Younger voters have been more liberal than other blocs in the last four elections. This may change.
4. It's the money, stupid: The democrats and republicans are united in noticing that Hillary is getting a large amount of money from the same corporations and banks being attacked by the progressives in her own party. She can count on her former campaign adviser (now the head of the DNC) to support her but might face hard opposition from the actual liberals.
>>55262026
>washington/oregon red
never go full retard
>>55262076
I could see OR going red this year
>source
native oregonian
>>55262076
>Not knowing what a paradigm shift is.
It's like you never studied any elections before the mid 1990s, anon.
>>55262026
That's gotta be one of the stupidest maps I've ever seen.
>AR, GA blue
>MI and PA red but FL blue
>WA red
>>55262257
Floridian here. As much bullshit as this map is, Florida is most certainly going blue without a doubt
>>55262215
Even with all the Californians that've moved to Portland?
Some writer for TIME (I think) wrote that a republican will win this election simply based on the fact that after a president serves two terms, historically he is followed by someone from the other party.
But I'm still skeptical. And I think people who color Colorado red know absolutely nothing about Colorado.
>>55262257
The Clintons enjoy massive negro support, enough to flip Arkansas and possibly Georgia.
Washington is only weakly blue in this election. It may very well go to the right given the chance.
Pennsylvania and Michigan have enough unionization present to cause to to go red if unions abandon the left; as appears to be the case.
>>55262026
>Minnesota
>Oregon
>Washington
>red
I want to believe but lets be honest here, that shit is never going to happen.
>>55262341
Alright but whoever could win MI and PA would almost certainly win FL
>>55262563
Yet MS is still red. As a Southerner I don't know much about unions or their politicking but if that's true then it's possible.
>>55262532
Trump will win Colorado because he will legalize weed. Colorado wants weed legalized nationwide so all the DUDE WEED LMAO Californiakeks stop coming to Colorado. If weed is legal everywhere they can go anywhere they want, not just Colorado.
>yfw teflon don "unstumpable rump roasting" trump wins in a landslide
>>55262748
That is my prediction if he is nominated, yes.
I operate on the assumption that the GOP's Rovite era is ending because it's due for a massive shift- an outsider will overthrow the current electoral map and embrace different ideologies. This has happened many times in our political history.
If, though, the GOP manages to maintain the centrist Rovite insiders, and Cruz or Rubio is nominated, the map will remain similar, as will the swing states, and Hillary will have a slight advantage.
>>55262026
>Michigan
>Voting Republican
>nope
>>55262386
Especially with the Californians moving to P-Town. The only way Oregon votes for anything but (D) is if you push Portland into the ocean and burn Eugene to the ground.
Republicans will win all but dark blue states this election.
>>55263120
If the unions abandon Hillary the state will go blue. The unions appear to be abandoning Hillary, ergo the state is likely to go blue.
>>55263236
I think you mean go red.
>>55263315
Yes, my mistake lol.
>>55262736
When has Trump even hinted at DUDE WEED LMAO?
>>55262026
Feel free to keep tossing out "paradigm shift" as if it were actual proof and hope your readers don't notice.
Also, your map is impossible.
>implying niggers will turn out for hillary more than they did for obama
>nc
>not redder than 2012
>>55263406
Remember Bubba Bill.
This is the likely result of Clinton vs. Trump
>>55262736
>at the 2015 Conservative Political Action Conference, Trump stated that he’s against the legalization of marijuana. ”I think it’s bad, and I feel strongly about that,” he said. “They’ve got a lot of problems going on right now in Colorado, some big problems.”
Trump has basically lost Colorado's vote by telling them they're suffering because of legal weed when almost nobody there feels that way at all. Yeah, Coloradans complain about the outsiders moving in just for the weed, but that couldn't be what Trump meant by "problems" because he should know that legalizing weed nationwide would fix that problem, not recriminalizing it
>>55263687
Weed isn't going to swing it. It's just not a big enough issue, and the few people who care that much are firmly on the left.
>>55263816
Colorado also received a hefty amount of immigrants
>>55262026
Washington here. You're a retard if you think this state is going red.
>>55263406
In all the talk about the impact of the black voter turnout for Obama and how much of an inevitable drop will occur for Hillary, it confuses me somewhat that we don't see much discussion of female voter turnout.
Something like 70% of swing voters are female, most of these undecideds are going to vote for the first female presidential candidate. The perceived historical nature of this election is going to draw more female non-voters to the polls, and you'll see a small but non-trivial number of loosely-republican female voters voting for Hillary.
Will the dems lose some black votes in 2016? Definitely. But blacks are only 15% or so of the population, women meanwhile are about 52% of the population. The percentage of those women voting for hillary won't be as monolithic as blacks for obama but a smaller percentage drawing from a larger pool is going to at least make up for the drop in black votes if not surpass it.
Repubs placed a woman on the ticket in 2008, it was a wise move in expecting to be up against hillary then, unfortunately it neither panned out that way nor proved to be a good choice of a *particular* female candidate. But I would be extremely surprised if the repubs don't get a female on the ticket to combat the potential automatic loss of female swing voters. Keep an eye on south carolina governor Nikki Haley as a likely choice for the repub VP slot.
(*repubs* brought the rebel flag issue to the forefront last year, and it looks like it was done to get ahead of the topic and pre-preemptively rehabilitate Haley's image before 2016)
>>55264550
>Repubs placed a woman on the ticket in 2008, it was a wise move in expecting to be up against hillary then
It was after Obama won the primaries, they were trying to scoop up all the pissed off Hillary voters.
PA won't go red, m8. We just had elections last Tuesday for the Supreme Court and the democrats swept it.
>>55264550
Nobody talks about the woman vote because Hillary already lost the woman vote once before. In 2008 more women voted for Obama than they did for Hillary in the primaries.
>>55262601
>Minnesota
Me too, but Minnesota doesn't really seem to like Hillary.
>>55262076
This. Even if only white men voted, those states would be blue.
>>55265049
You should come live in Trumps America, my friend. We need more good people like you.
>>55262026
You forgot something: the candidates.
Trump will self-destruct against Clinton.
And yeah: Oregon and Washington won't vote Republican. You can't be that retarded. The only chance of that happening is a spoiler from the far left, meaning Sanders running as a serious third-party contender. Which isn't going to occur.
>>55265087
I will, if he wins.
I finish my masters in Jul 2017. Trump loves the British and wants more white Europeans. I think I'd stand a chance in Trumps America.
>>55265119
>Trump will self-destruct against Clinton.
And what makes you say that? People keep saying Trump is going to self-destruct but it never fucking happens.
>>55265191
People often get mixed up. When they say something "will" happen, what they mean is they "want" something to happen.
Some people are often retarded and fail to distinguish the two, like our Canadian friend here.
>>55265191
Right now, there's a dog-fight going on in which people are enjoying watching Trump make an ass of himself and his targets. But he hasn't demonstrated an ability to lead, and he's far from presidential. Once the general election is held, people will remember that they're voting for a president. Voter apathy will kick in after a long and contentious primary, with likely voters for the RNC staying home. Trump being himself will energize the Democratic base as he flubs every debate and interview by generally being a douche. Voter turnout isn't going to be good, for Republicans.
>>55265459
voter apathy benefits the republicans. You have no idea how American elections work.
Trump will start looking very presidential when he's the president.
>>55262563
Georgia will be red. Native Georgian here, you know nothing about this state.
>>55264935
Elections?
For the Supreme Court?
dafuq u tacoing about
president chooses justices m8
>>55262563
>The Clintons enjoy massive negro support, enough to flip Arkansas and possibly Georgia.
nowhere near the level of Obama. Obama got 98% of the black vote. If Clinton only manages 80% or so, she's lost the south along with key states like Pen and Michigan.
>>55265593
Voter apathy only benefits Republicans if it's the likely Democrat voters who are apathetic. But Trump is going to leave red voters staying home.
And I'm American, retardazor. I'm just in Canada.
>>55265459
If your argument relies entirely on "people will come to their senses, I know it" Then you have a shitty argument. Also you severely underestimate how much people hate Hillary Clinton here.
>>55265661
>But Trump is going to leave red voters staying home.
Not a single shred of evidence suggests this.
As
>>55265690
Said
Your entire argument relies on something you "feel" will happen.
>>55265661
>But Trump is going to leave red voters staying home
Except this is wrong, Trump is firing up the base unlike any GOP candidate I've ever seen in my lifetime.
>>55265621
State Supreme Court...
>>55265661
You've got the roles reversed, Trump is firing up the GOP. Only a small selection of democrats are enthusiastic about the next election.
>>55262257
PA will be going red. PA hates hates HATES Clinton.
Plus, PA is rust belt. Rust belt loves Trump right now. You'd know that if you've been in the area recently.
>>55266044
>>55265837
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
the latest poll we have has Trump ahead of Clinton.
Hopefully Clinton stays clean enough to win the primary, then continues her descent into being totally toxic with men.
>>55262026
>>55262026
OREGON turning red
you lost already, that place is a cancer cluster, full of 5th wave feminazis; manginas, faggots, liberals, queers and only God knows what else.
that place wouldn't turn red if their lives depended on it
>>55266200
Said it already. Oregon/Washington are hopeless. In the Romney maps where it showed only white men voting, those states were still fucking blue. Totally keked.
What pained me though is when you remove Latinos completely, California is red... just like the good old days.
![349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/j57juHa.png "349px-ElectoralCollege1984.svg[1].png")
>>55262076
>it'll never happen!!!!
I think Trump is going to be the next massive landslide election. I've lived in WA for most of my life and trust me when I say east of the mountains is very conservative. We're only a blue state because of the shithole Seattle and its surrounding shitholes.
>>55266295
If you drop San Francisco off the map, California would be red and stay red.
If only white men voted.
>>55266404
Would help if I attached the image...
>>55266295
> remove Latinos
trump please.
if you remove the Latinos out of that place it'll be an empty space.
that place is Brown to the bone
Only men.
Notice California goes Blue, notice the importance of the black vote in Michigan. If Hillary fails to dominate the black vote, she could lose Michigan.
Only whites.
Michigan/California back to red.
>>55262026
>colorado
>red
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED
![adonald15[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/VG2BiEg.png "adonald15[1].png")
>>55266295
>when you remove Latinos completely
Make California Red Again
>arkansas
>georgia
>blue
>washington
>oregon
>red
JUST
>>55266609
That would secure the Ameri-reich for the next 1000 years
this thread is beyond retarded I am getting the fuck out.
trump fags are getting more desperate by the day
>>55263390
Some have source but he supports it. Wants to legalize it and use money for other programs like drug education etc
>>55266550
Iowan here, what the fuck man.
>>55266968
Trump don't support WEEEEEEEEEED
>>55264726
You're right, the Palin pick was after Obama had secured the party nomination. But I do believe the repub candidates had been focusing most of their VP consideration/vetting towards a female choice under the assumption that hillary was to the the likely opponent in the months leading up to Palin's eventual selection.
>>55264968
I don't recall if that's true, I'll take your word for it. But there is a difference between female dem voters having their choice of two liked candidates (the 2008 polls clearly showed the majority of dems would be happy to vote for either candidate, hillary or barack, even if they had a preference for one over the other) and a large number of undecided female voters choosing between hillary and a male repub candidate.
>>55265653
IIRC, Obama got "only" 95% of the black vote in 2008 and 93% in 2012. But black voter turnout was surprisingly (esp to Rove) a bit higher in 2012 so it worked out to be roughly equivalent.
>>55262341
Florida here
It highly depends on the candidate
I suspect red for hilary, red for trump, red for a florida candidate, blue for any other reoublican, red for sanders
If hilary v. Trump I get it to trump
Not a trump fag btw
>>55266160
It doesn't matter how dirty Hillary gets, Sanders will not get the nomination. Socialist slash communists do not win US POTUS elections. It just doesn't happen.
Frankly, Trump has this one in the bag.
>>55263120
Go check the 2010 county votes mate
It's very possible
>>55267321
2014*
>>55266044
You hafta be reminded this every time:
>PA hasn't gone red since 1988
>+5% blue in 2012
>+11% blue in 2008
>+2% blue in 2004
>+5% blue in 2000
PA went blue for *Kerry* and even dems didn't like the guy as a presidential candidate. Whatever your gut instinct is telling you of the state's leanings, you instincts are historically wrong.
>OP claims to be pragmatic
>Ignores the fact the Dems only need one swing state, while the GOP needs all of them
You can't gerrymander an entire state. Every vote counts, and Hillary will use Obama's game plan to win in a walk over any GOP candidate.
>>55262563
Not entirely true - they haven't got over her dissing pbongo and don't trust her one bit .-they'll probably vote for her if she's the candidate but grudgingly and with no enthusiasm
>>55262748
Trump is secretly a hillary supporter.
>yfw tump is a strawman candidate to mindfcuk the hapless cons..
Real map incoming.
A potato bag would win the election if it would run on the democrat ticket.
It's the demographics, stupid.
>>55267432
Fuck off Nate Silver. Past performance does not mean shit in this election.
(btw: you really botched 2014)
>>55267782
Trump is polling ahead of Clinton in Florida and Pen and Michigan.
>>55267940
and crazy Ben "Pyramids" Carson is leading some GOP polls.
Doesn't mean shit at this moment
>>55262026
>Only democrat and republican is an option
gg american voting-system. I'd say never change being a retard. But you probably won't anyways.
>>55268036
Are you saying certain demographics don't respond to opinion polls? That's the only way your argument holds any water.
>>55268060
Don't think of them as parties. Think of them as two major coalitions of parties.
And that said, we do have dozens of minor parties but they are utterly insignificant and rarely win much on the Federal level outside of a seat or two in Congress. On their own they just lack sufficient support.
>>55268254
What's the most based party outside of Libertarian/Republican/democrat? Is it constitution party?
>>55265459
>no ability to lead
>became a multi-billionaire
Canuck wtf are you doing?
>>55268290
I would say the America First Party or American Conservative Party.
>>55268136
I say that without 1 vs 1 situation and no focus on the issues, the polls aren't really informative.
No one likes Hillary because she is a unlikable hag, but she surely has better arguments and debate skills than Carson or Trump.
No it's "I'll show those establishment faggots", but before the election or in the voting booth, things will turn out different.
>>55269074
You've never seen Clinton and Trump debate together, You have no shred of evidence to say the polls are wrong and you are only assuming at this point.
>>55267782
Almost all the midwest has red potential in 2016, the only iffy state is Minnesota. Florida's guaranteed red.
![SandersTrump[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/VUcsfXF.jpg "SandersTrump[1].jpg")
>>55262026
>all this hype for trump vs Clinton
>trump is actually viable against Clinton because she is almost as hated as he is
Go look up the match up of trump vs sanders. Get ready for trump to get btfo.
>>55269596
I would say even Illinois is a possibility with Trump.
>>55269808
>Trump
>hated
>>55269808
>shilling this hard for an anti-gun commie kike
>>55269808
Sanders doesn't stand a chance in the democratic primary. Almost all of Bidens support went to Hillary.
>>55262026
>Unions appear to be abandoning Hillary, which is absolute mayhem for the democratic party. If they endorse Trump, he will sweep the midwest as Reagan did.
How much of a fucking retard do you have to be to think that unions will endorse trump? they'd endorse a turd on a stick before they endorse Donald fucking Trump.
>>55262341
Florida here. It's not good to lie.
Daily reminder to help turn NY into a red state
>>55266396
>dat mn
>>55269934
Bernie is better on guns then Hilary.
>>55269899
His favorability rating is the only one lower than Clinton for the national electorate.
>>55270197
They said that about obamma as well.
>>55270268
He has promised to bring back domestic manufacturers and the jobs that go with them. That kind of thing would get Union members on his side even if the organizations don't formally support him.
>>55270634
>They said that about obamma as well.
No they didn't. Obama was catching up with Hillary at this point. Sanders is completely flat.
>>55270268
They're already optioning Trump. He had a meeting with them last month after they mysteriously refused to endorse Hillary as expected.
>>55269808
Sanders won't be nominated so it makes no difference. Sanders =/= Hillary.
>>55267782
Due to the current and major paradigm shift the political map will look like anything EXCEPT how it looked for the last four cycles. The midwest is the region of note this time around, as well as parts of the south.
>>55267561
The list of swing states is not the same as it was in 2012, assuming an outsider nominee for the GOP. Iowa and New Hampshire will be deep red, and it will be the midwest up for grabs. Please study some political history and get back to me before conflating last-election results with future results.
>>55266396
I don't predict a Reagan/Nixon style landslide but I do predict he would win handily. Ultimately the shift isn't large enough to swing California or New York, but it can and likely will swing some combination of Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington State, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, and Virginia.
>>55266200
Wrong.
>>55266044
True.
>>55265661
Actually he's tapping voting blocs which haven't been energized in two decades; unionists and the youth especially.
>>55270684
Everyone promised to get the jobs back, it's bullshit that nobody will follow if he doesn't lay out a plan, which he doesn't have because he says he'll "negotiate".
The only way to bring jobs back is to throw free trade out of the window it deserves and going back on protectionism. Fuck China, fuck Mexico, we can make our own shit, I'd rather it be more expensive but people have jobs to afford it than be cheap but nobody can buy it anyway.
>>55270634
>bernie is better on guns then hillary
In what sense?
He still wants an assault weapons ban again, he voted for the last assault weapons ban. He's a retard on gun control, just like Hillary
Just cause on candidate is a gigantic pile of shit doesn't mean that i should be ok with the ever so slightly smaller pile of shit.
Saying bernie is better on guns is saying that being set on fire with 10 gallons of gasoline is better than being set on fire with 11 gallons of gasoline.
BITCH I'M STILL ON FIRE, ITS STILL ENOUGH TO KILL ME.
get out of my country you stupid nigger. SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED.
Can we stop the meme of Trump having any chance of winning? He is a solid 5 points behind in every head to head match up with Clinton.
>>55270781
No bernie is at a higher point than obama was.
>>55270448
NYC here. How to do this? I've talked to the Trump campaign people several times and emailed them also. They don't seem to be serious about volunteers. I've been shilling for him online but still that's not the same as being organized. Meanwhile Shillary has 300+ people working for her in Brooklyn.
>>55270898
Trump is running on an isolationist program If u read his tax program
>>55263120
>Detroit's population is falling rapidly
>unions have abandoned Hillary
>black people think Trump is awesome and are mad at Obama
>the rest of the state is already red
You're going to be surprised.
>>55264550
Non-feminist women don't want a female president and feminists don't want Hillary as the first female president.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drR3V4ZXfrI
>>55271515
>No bernie is at a higher point than obama was.
This. Bernie doesn't have the cash Obama had though, and he doesn't have a superpac. If he doesn't mimic Obama's actions to the tee he won't win.
>>55262026
Well keep in mind the reason the Youth is turning against Clinton is because she isn't liberal ENOUGH for then.
Bernie Sanders is massively winning that group.
>>55265661
Call me a shill, but I know a lot of Christian Right voters who would not vote if Trump was the nominee. They will stick with Carson until the bitter end.
>>55262026
I could possibly see Unions supporting Trump, assuming Bernie doesn't get nominated and Clinton doesn't put her shit together on free trade.
>>55262026
>FL
>blue
Good one
>>55262026
The Sanders/Clinton debate is also happening here, my personal opinion is that right now there is probably a 50/50 chance Bernie can get the nomination. There's so many factors like Omally supporters and Webss 3rd party run that can affect the debate and help Sanders. He is only what, 10 points behind? But the media has been so effectively shilling Hillary to the uninformed voters that I sometimes doubt Bernie's ability to catch up with her. Especially in terms of minorities, who tend to care less about politics and women, who like Clintons vagina.
>>55273204
Bruh, I live in northern Florida at it is probably 60% conservative to 40% liberal. South Florida is one of the most liberal places in the country.
>>55272327
This basically. Not a big Trump fan but by God is he based on international trade.
>>55262026
>Washingon
>WEEDorado
>Michigan
>Oregon
>Pennsylvania
>red
>>55262257
Rubio and Bush are not likely to win Florida and they are the best of the Republicans for the state
>>55273374
What the fuck? Maybe the younger population but the older cubans and the rich jews vote republican.
>>55273452
Nah man, if they could grab the Latino vote and begrudgingly take the white conservative vote, they would have the state.
>>55272616
Paglia is something of a wonk
>>55270898
Trump has been saying we should end NAFTA and is against TPP. Nobody else has even brought up the possibility of going against free trade.
>>55273547
The fuck?
Dude the poverse cities of South Florida and the slums of Jacksonville are hella liberal.
>>55273777
Sanders has been against Nafta Cafta and Whateverthefukthechinadealwascalled from jump, that's why he has so much support from the Unions rn.
>>55273603
>grab the Latino vote
While Florida has the most Cubans, younger Cubans are not as Red as their parent and the Republicans have never done well with Hispanics
>>55273909
True, but in the early stages of Bush's run he was reaching out really well. There was a time when 50% of Latinos viewed him positively. Rubio was a bit less but he has 33%(I think)
If they sucked immigrant dick they could have totally stolen Latinos from the left.
>>55270448
My family in NY is already on the Trump train.
>>55271004
Vermont here. He hasn't voted for anything that would prevent me from owning my hunting gear and handgun in this state. I don't give a fuck about assault rifles, CCW, or the NRA's slippery slope arguments. And I sure as fuck don't care about inner cities, the niggers can ban guns and kill themselves if they want, no skin off my back.
Learn to think for yourself rather than listening to some lobbyist or thinktank shill pushing hysteria.
>>55275062
>muh hunting
Arkansas isn't going to be blue
bill is from there, not ahilla the hun.
the state has had a surge to go red.
sick of the liberals
>>55262532
>TIME (I think) wrote that a republican
that would be the case if Joe Biden were running. TIME doesn't want to acknowledge the unique vectors in this race
Hillary will have the excitement and energy of First Woman President. Near hysteria.
Trump has his natural charisma and energy, plus the prospect of a REAL OUTSIDER actually in the running for the first time. All the bullshit media and pundits on BOTH sides are trying to derail him.
