Nate Silver has created an election calculator based on population growth and ethnic voting groups.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/30/us/politics/presidential-math-demographics-and-immigration-reform.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0
This can be used to calculate how well Trump would do if his Silent Majority turns out and he gets more white voters.
In 2008, Obama got 43% of the white vote while McCain got 55.
In 2012, Obama got 39 and Romney got 59%.
Let's assume Trump increases white turnout and gets 65% of the white vote. With all other variables being left the same, Trump would get 315 electoral votes.
Even if he drives the hispanic vote up to 80% Democratic, if he gets 65% of the white vote he'd get 276 electoral votes.
>>53684327
>Nate Silver
>Good
This should be a bannable offense tbh.
>>53684791
>65% of the white vote
>50% of whites are feminist bitches and whores
>50% of whites are gay beta white bois looking for feminist bitch pussy
Trump confirmed for president literally never.
>>53684791
>2016
>Blacks voting 95% democrat
Good joke anon, blacks aren't going to vote for Hillary the way they did for Obama. Trump is going to steal a chunk of the black vote.
>>53686419
I agree with you. I'm just pointing out the white voter aspect. I also think the Hispanic vote against him would be larger.
>>53686489
Hispanics like Trump too though, because the ones he pisses off are illegal and can't vote because they're criminals, but yeah, the white vote turnout this year will heavily favor Republicans. Wouldn't shock me to see it go to 65% red.
If you want numbers on minorities though, you should figure trump could steal upwards of 25% of both black and Hispanic. Makes it a pretty interesting race tbh
>>53686618
I don't know if the black vote would be that high for Trump. Blacks seem to love Hillary. Obama won 95% of them in 2012, but I could imagine Hillary getting in the upper 80s in the black vote.
Giving Trump 65% of the white vote and 25% of the black would give him 347 electoral votes here.
>>53686976
25% of the black vote is what he is polling at right now
http://www.theamericanmirror.com/shock-poll-trump-receives-25-of-black-vote-in-general-election-matchup/
It's over
Democrats are finished
