The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Would you recommend it for a student on his1st year Econ studies? Opinion on the book and its probability theory in general.
no, taleb is a hack
>>7711869
I read it in my 3rd year (Econ student), it's pretty much the most important book that influenced my way of thinking (among with Anti-fragile later). So yeah, I'd definitely recommend it.
>>7711943
stylized facts, hubristic, cherrypicked and not rigorous
some of the baseline conclusions are ok, just treat it as pop econ, maybe an enjoyable read and might get you interested in the area
you can read this: http://edge.org/conversation/the-fourth-quadrant-a-map-of-the-limits-of-statistics by taleb and get the gist of black swan