>The Next 100 Years is a 2009 book by George Friedman. In the book, Friedman attempts to predict the major geopolitical events and trends of the 21st century. Friedman also speculates in the book on changes in technology and culture that may take place during this period.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years
>Second cold war with Russia with Crimea and Ukraine being hot points for conflict
>Russian and Chinese fragmentation collapse into smaller states
>Western countries will begin competeing for immigrants due to low birth rates and people living longer
>Mexicans in the US will stay loyal to mexico due to muh border lands
Nice book but gets way too specific on the end
>>56258533
He's a hack and stratfor is a hack organisation.
Disregarded in the academic and political field.
>>56258533
>Second cold war with Russia with Crimea and Ukraine being hot points for conflict
You don't need to be a genius to predict that. Russkies were always mad at Khrushew after he gave away Crimea to Ukraine, but it mattered little before since both Ukraine and Russia were a part of Soviet Union.
After it's collapse it would've been just a matter of time until Russia will regain Crimean clay. And of course hohols would never give it away willingly.
> Around 2015, a Polish-led military alliance of countries in Eastern Europe will begin to form, which is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc."
Isn't /v4/ a military alliance?
>>56260238
>>
What did he mean by this?
>>56260168
More like an economic/development bloc within the E.U. though it does extend into the military sometimes.
>>56258533
>In the mid-21st century, around the year 2050, a Third World War will take place, between the United States, the "Polish Bloc," Britain, India, and China on one side, and Turkey and Japan on the other, with Germany and France entering the war in its late stages on the side of Turkey and Japan. According to the book, the war will probably be started by a coordinated Turkish-Japanese sneak attack against the United States and its allies.
This is literally impossible.
So that means in 30 years both Turkey and Japan would have to replace their whole military arsenals with 100% homemade weapons and equipment.
Not only that but Turkey would acutally have to build a competent navy and Japan would have to do it too.
In todays economic climate I don't think it's feasible for Japan to build any type of Aircraft carriers and have 10 of them. Not even drone carries.
Basically this guy took the most sensible geopolitcal analysis at the time.
Made that his first 20 years or so. And then made shit up
>>56260554
>that quote
this is literally the kind of fanfiction you find on alternate history forums
>>56258533
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Next_100_Years
>mfw Finland will annex Karelia
Probably not gonna happen.
>>56258533
Sauce on Pic OP?
>>56261195
http://angelicmodel.com/members/content/wordpress/galleries/TopBlack02/page1.html
http://angelicmodel.com/members/content/wordpress/galleries/
>>56258533
>Russian and Chinese fragmentation collapse into smaller states
Based on what exactly? The Rus are still the ethnic majority in most regions of Russia (Chechenia being the most noteworthy exception) and China is rather succesful in enforcing Han culture and the Mandarin language as dominant. Scotland and Catalonia are more likely to become independent.
This, combined with shit like Finland annexing Karelia, gives the book the plausibility of the "I fixed Europe" maps we see here all the time.
>>56260554
>Japan vs the USA
>France and Germany vs the USA
>China allied with the USA
>China and India working together
Wow, it's complete and utter shit.
This guy is retarded.
>>56258533
This guy is absolutely retarded.
>>56261600
You forgot about the ancient American art of downplaying their enemies while circle jerking with themselves. Don't take the book too seriously.
>>56260168
I wish it was
>>56261842
>Japan vs the USA
This especially is retarded. Japan doesn't have its own constitution (it's pretty much the American Constitution adjusted to fit Japan and forced upon the Japanese population after WW2 without so much as a vote of approval), it doesn't have its own military (merely a "self defense force"), doesn't even have its own military policy (America forces it on them) and on top of all that the country is chocful of military bases. Hell, the entire island of Okinawa is a military base where American soldiers can quite literally rape and abuse the local population with impunity (the Americans arranged a treaty whereby all American soldiers who violate the law in Japan need to be judged in America by American law. If too many of these cases appear in American courts then the American population might grow skeptical of the Okinawa base (and other bases in Japan) so to protect their own interests the American military just lets their soldiers get away with rape, among other things).
For this country to suddenly not only expell all American presence, but also turn on America AND develop a military that can form a threat to that of America within the next thirty years would require a miracle.
>>56263274
Abe has been pushing for a more independent military and defence policy. Still doesn't mean anything in this book is worth reading.
