Bayesian is a technology, right?
What do you think the answer of the question?
>>55438931
since a = d then only 3 choices are left and 1 is true.I close my eyes and choose at random and the chance is 33%
>>55438931
50%
>>55438931
25% chance to answer correctly.
you have 4 options.
But two of them is 25%, which means the correct answer is 50%, and there is only one option which says 50%, so the chance of selecting the 50% is 25%,
>>55438931
I'd say 50%.
>inb4 some statistic calculation (that was designed by nazis for the sole purpose of fucking with people) that returns 60%.
>>55438970
is there any other kind of statistics?
Guys, you should try to think in a bayesian way and find a contradiction.
50% maybe
>>55438962
but then selecting 50% would be wrong
>>55438931
it's 25%
>>55438931
The right answer is not there.
It's like: What is the answer to 2+3
a)1
b)2
c)7
d)3
>>55439110
You are very close. So, what do you think the right answer?
The actual answers are irrelevant and lead you to believe there's a 33% chance somewhere in the mix, but that's not the case.
The correct answer to the question as posed is "With only 4 selections to choose from, the chance is 25%."
End of story.
>>55438931
There is no correct answer.
>>55439262
This is why C needs to be 0%.
>>55439146
This is accurate.
>>55439146
>My answer is correct if I only read the first sentence of the question and ignore all other information given
t. You
Let P(A) be the probablity to choose A, and let P(B), P(C), and P(D) define same way.
> choose an answer at random
P(A) = P(B) = P(C) = P(D) = 1/4
Let P(T) be the probablity to choose the right answer, and it is what we want to know.
By bayesian, we can write P(T) like below:
P(T) = P(T|A)P(A) + P(T|B)P(B) + P(T|C)P(C) + P(T|D)P(D) + P(T|O)P(O). ...(1)
Where P(O) is the probablity not to choose A, B, C, nor D, therefore P(O)=0. P(T|A) is the conditional probablity that what you choose is the right answer when you choose an answer as A, and P(T|B), P(T|C), P(T|D), and P(T|O) so on. The answer A and D have same value, therefore we can find that P(T|A) = P(T|D). Now we can summary equation (1):
P(T) = (1/4)*( 2*P(T|A) + P(T|B) + P(T|C) ). ...(2)
Here we make an assumption that P(T|A), P(T|B), P(T|C), or P(T|D) is 1, which is meaning that there is an answer in A, B, C, or D, but not in O. However, we can prove that we cannot make a sense when the assumption is True. Therefore, the assumption is false. So the opposite, P(T|O)=1 is true and we can conclude that P(T)=0.
>>55439298
Oh, that is right. I found that if C is 0% then the problem goes to be a paradox.
>>55438931
A. I see 4 questions, 100/4=25.
>>55438931
>>55438931
Maybe i'm stupid
But if you purely choose at random, the answer to that question is 100% right?
However 100% is not one of the answers, so all answers are wrong and the chance of picking the right answer is 0%
Or do I miss something?
x∊R, x=√-1
Find the value of x.
>>55439646
√-1
>>55439666
That's not on the real number line mate. Try again.
>>55438931
It's 33%, actually. Since D is redundant as a second "25% choice," you can ignore it. Which leaves 3 different possible answers total. Chosen randomly, you have a 33% chance of getting the correct choice.
>>55438931
No correct answer is listed.
>>55439687
>>55439666
Well to be fair the way I set that up you have a point. How about x∊R, x2=-1.
>>55439714
The question itself doesn't actually have a "true" answer, it just lists random numbers.
In order for there to be a chance for you to be correct at all it would have to be asking about something specific, nothing in the question suggests one of the answers is accurate or relevant to begin with.
>>55439500
>>55439467
Specifically C? Can't D be used e.g.?
>>55438931
ILL-POSED
L
L
-
P
O
S
E
D
>>55439467
Not a paradox, still just unanswerable due to a lack of information
The question asks the chance of answering it correctly, but doesn't tell you the condition that makes an answer correct. In order for there to be an answer at all you have to assume one of the answers is correct to begin with without additonal information.
>>55439804
OP here. Basically, I concur with this statement. We still can make the problem as a real paradox to add more information to solve the problem, though.
>>55439729
Use a caret you ape
Are a b c and d assumed to be the only answers we can give?
>>55439767
No. You can understand why it is to be a paradox when an option C is 0% by reading >>55439424
>>55438931
Why are the answers defined in terms of the question itself?
>>55439853
25/25/0/50
"assume one and only one answer is correct"
now it's a paradox
>>55439863
I used the wrong unicode constructor. soz mate.
>>55439804
No, it's a paradox fucknut
Because 25% is true if and only if the answer is b (50%) or c (60%) (a self-referential liar paradox) while 50% is true if and only if a and d are true (again a self-referential liar paradox). Answer c can never be true it isn't of the form n/4 V n={1,2,3,4}.
This statement is false.
Have you ever seen a man eat his own head?
>>55439927
Sorry, but I cannot undertand what >>55439594 is saying about very well.
>>55438931
why do y'all think a and d are same?
>>55438931
Multiples:
Depends of various things:
A - There is a definitive answer:
- If there is a definitive answer then it depends on the correct answer:
25% - Result is 50% chance.
50% - Result is 25% chance.
60% - Result is 25% chance.
B - There is no definitive answer (the correct answer changes):
- If the correct answer changes there are 3 correct answers, therefore 33% chance.
Ohh, and even if the answer you pick is not correct in the space. For example choose 50% when the correct answer is 25%, it is still correct because the question is not what is the correct answer, it is what is the percentage.
>>55439900
Correct, thanks for the completion of the problem.
>>55438931
This is a "trick question", because the question works in two way: in normal language and in meta language.
It's like this:
>the next sentence is wrong. the previous sentence is right.
There is no solution, because basically it means:
A = not B
B = A
It's not possible to give TRUE / FALSE values to those variables so that they all are correct. The system is inconsistent.
Back to topic:
The question implies that it's actually possible to pick one of the answers, but that's not always the case.
It's satisfiable for some values:
(25%, 1%, 1%, 1% )
(50%, 50%, 1%, 1% )
But for other values it's not possible:
(25%, 25%, 25%, 25% ) --> the correct answer is "100%, but that option is not given here
(0%, 0%, 0%, 0%) --> whatever you chose, you are wrong. But then 0% is right. So the answer is 100%. But then you picked the wrong answer.. (and so on)
I think that probability should be 0%.
Probability is subjective
This is the only true Bayesian response
>>55439905
No, it's not a paradox because you are ASSUMING at least one of the answers is correct to go on your tangent about "solving" it. Your assumption that one of the answers is correct is only based on your past experience with multiple choice questions, not on any information in the question.
The actual question does nothing to imply that any of the answers are correct, and has no information to suggest that any of them are incorrect. The question is like a function that just ends up returning the default value regardless of its contents and you're trying to explain why it should evaluate a specific input and produce a specific output.
>>55440619
Goal posts shifted.
>>55438931
Option C) should be 0 %, not 60 %. Nobody will think the answer is 60 %, it has no point of being there other than filling a 4th option. 0 % on the other hand makes sense. Since no answer is listed which matches its percentage, one could say the true answer is 0 %. But if that is an option, it obviously can't be 0 %.
